Wingate

Can anyone make sense of what Trump and his Carnival People actually believe? All of the statements of Trump and his now Administration are not reflected in what he is doing now. How about the justification for this war? Why do Trump, Hegseth, Rubio and even the Speaker offer a different excuse? A casually dressed Speaker Johnson, after a meeting with Admin officials, said that the US had no choice because Israel was going to attack Iran, so we had to join. That doesn't really sound like "America First". Trump is so baffled trying to justify the war he started (or had no choice because Israel told him to act), that he wandered off during a briefing about strikes and US military deaths by going on a tangent about his beautiful gold curtains. “See that nice drape? When that comes down right now you see a very, very deep hole, but in about a year and half from now, you’re gonna see a very, very beautiful building. And there’s your entrance to it right there,” [pointing to the gold curtains] In fact, I think I’ll even, I’ll save money on the doors because you can’t get more beautiful than that. I picked those drapes in my first term. I always liked gold, but I think we can save a lot of money. I just saved, I just saved curtains.” “It’ll be spectacular, it’ll be the most beautiful ballroom. I believe it’s because I’ve built many a ballroom. I believe it’s going to be the most beautiful ballroom anywhere in the world,” If your sons and daughters are now in harm's way because of Trump, does a rambling monologue about gold curtains and a ballroom make you feel comforted? If you are one of the service people in harm's way, do you think Trump really cares about the danger you face? About the first noted US deaths, Trump said, "That's the way it is" Parsing Trump's actions and relationships, it's quite clear he really doesn't care about the hardships of the Iranian people or whether they deserve freedom. Note Trump is best buddies with MbS, a miscreant who runs a monarchy, not a democracy, a man who ordered the flaying alive of a WaPo journalist, a man who rules a land where the mere practice of Trump's supposed Christianity is a crime punishable by public beheading. Oh, and since Trump has access to classified intel, he knows full well Saudi Arabia has long been, and remains, a funder of Sunni Islamic terrorism. Trump couldn't care less about freedom. He cares about what's in it for him: money and a diversion from Epstein.

There's a difference between "praying" and simply seeing reality. Who could have thought an attack on Iran might cause oil prices to soar! Answer: People with brains.

Entering the conflict, Iran had something like 10,000 -20,000 missiles. It takes three Patriots to shoot down each missile. Not sure how many Patriots or THAAD systems Israel and the Gulf states have, but Iran might have the upper hand in a war of attrition. They are the front line, so lack the resupply problems the US would have transporting replacements to the Gulf. The US has already done 2000+ strikes, and while Khamenei is gone, most all what those billions of dollars have done is blow up stuff. Iran isn't folding. As for the people rising up to do regime change...how? Many now have no access to food and clean water, no internet, and little electricity. They are unlikely to blame their own leadership for that. Iran also has a real trump card, should they choose to use it. They could call this a "war against Islam", and claim the Gulf monarchies are "lackies for the Zionists". That would likely resonate in the Arab street, even among Sunnis. That would lead to unrest in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and maybe Qatar, Kuwait and the UAE. The entire Middle East would burn, and with it, cheap oil and gas for the world. Somehow, I don't get the impression Trump and his Carnival People Administration have a plan. I'm also not sure how long Americans will accept $5 gas, accelerating inflation, and endless body bags arriving at Dover, all of which are likely in a prolonged war.

Iran likely has good intel on the numbers and location of Patriot systems. Not all Gulf countries are equally protected. The UAE is probably most vulnerable, and in the UAE, Dubai. Iran will likely target the Burj Khalifa. Iran may slow its retaliation against Israel, and concentrate its missiles and drones against Gulf states. The Gulf states cannot get deeply involved, because their populations are not particularly enamored of Israel. They will see this war as a war against Moslems. The monarchies of the Sheikh-lets are thus at risk. The more damage Iran can do to Gulf nations, the greater the likelihood those nations will demand a cease fire. Iran already hit Ras Tanura, which takes out 500K bbl/day of Saudi exports. News of that juiced crude futures and took another hundred points off Dow futures. Expect more hits on production facilities, including GOSPs. So far Yemen has been quiet, but that may not last. Shutting down Hormuz shipping is bad. Shutting down Red Sea shipping compounds the problem. Insurers are going to pull coverage on vessels.

Of course Trump mocked a disabled person. Only MAGAs are too dumb or blind not to see reality. THAT is "peak stupidity. As for his bone spurs, there are plenty of videos long before AI Deep Fakes came along that show Trump playing tennis during that time. Plus, bone spurs are not a disability. Cerebral palsy is.

You must have missed it. More than 100K people marched in Isfahan chanting "Death to America". The same thing happened in other cities. By the way, why aren't you volunteering to be a boots on the ground and go help those Trump lovers in Iran? Bone spurs got you?

Here is your President: In a video noting the deaths of 3 military members so far, he tossed out the usual pabulum about "ultimate sacrifice", and finished by saying "There will likely be more [deaths], as "that just the way it is" in a totally un-empathetic, non-Bruce Hornsby & the Range kind of way and in a nonchalant manner. Right after that, at a time when the US is at war and the Middle East is on fire, Trump posted a boast of how Lady Gaga's father voted for him in 2024. When someone with Narcissistic Personality Disorder also suffers from dementia........

He seeks constant validation on an anonymous Forum. Not saying that's the sign of a Beta male, but it's the sign of a Beta male...a wannabe Alpha, and most definitely not a Sigma.

Trump isn't smart enough, or simply does not care, what this unnecessary war will incite. More important than his base turning against him, or new critics like Ted Cruz have called Trump's justification spurious, or Rep Thomas Massie Tweeted, "PSA: Bombing a country on the other side of the globe won’t make the Epstein files go away, any more than the Dow going above 50,000 will,", is another likely outcome or two. When faced with strategic superiority, the victims feel impotent. They build a need to find some way to strike back and inflict pain on anyone remotely responsible in their minds. Expect many more random attacks against westerners all around the world. One will prompt others. Someone will stab a dozen people somewhere, and others will play copycat. Lots of Iranians in Pattaya, and lots of fat old westerners, who would be easy targets. It won't just be Iranians, either. Other Shi'a will join. Eventually Sunni populations in Gulf countries will view this as a war against Moslems, and they will take it out on their own leadership, monarchs who are complicit in this attack. The entire Middle East, which was never particularly stable, is going to become a lot less so. The Neocon clowns who predicted taking out Saddam would unleash democracy across the entire Moslem world did not get that too right. As I wrote elsewhere, a famous saying in the Arab world is "Me against my brother; my brother and I against you". As for Iran itself, it's a nation of 93 million, where the "approval rating" for Khamenei was about equal to Trump's approval rating in the US. That means maybe 30+ million Iranians are now angry. More will join as they see an outside power destroying their already difficult lives. A million of those at least are in the Revolutionary Guard. They won't just "lay down their weapons". Trump is eventually going to have to make a choice of putting boots on the ground, which would result in more deaths than Iraq and Afghanistan combined. The American people, even those who support Trump, like clean wars where nobody on our side dies. Any boots on the ground obviates that. When planeloads of body bags hit Dover, people might remember what Gen Kelly swears by: Trump called the dead in previous wars and battles "suckers and losers". He's making money while young servicepeople die. One final point. Even leaders in "s-hole" countries are not stupid. They see "Iran attacked; North Korea not attacked". The difference is not "love letters", but nukes. Everyone is going to wants their own nukes now. They will develop them if they can, or hit the open market and buy from China, North Korea, Pakistan, etc. Nuclear scientists are going to be able to command the signing bonuses common to AI experts. It's a bit too early to declare "Mission Accomplished".

The entire rationale for these strikes is BS. The intel community, both agency and DIA, along with SecState Rubio, have said everything Trump claimed is false. They were polite enough not to say he lied, but he lied. Iran, at its best (after Trump abrogated the JCPOA) could achieve maybe 50% purity of U235. They were years away from being able to enrich to the required 93% for weapons grade. It's even easy to monitor that, as the high speed centrifuges require extremely sophisticated power input, where they are no fluctuations in the voltage. Iran's power generation is not that sophisticated. Despite the lie from Witkoff, Iran was not "a week away from weapons grade U235". They had absolutely no ICBM Program, and analysts estimated that even if they embarked on that, they would take 10 years to be able to produce a workable ICBM. If Trump's rationale is that he cared about the dead protesters, the clown has zero empathy for Americans, much less Persian Moslems. Recall Trump and DOGE shut down the Farsi language Voice of America, so obviously Trump doesn't give a flying eff about the common Iranian people. Use Occam's Razor...let's see...who are Iran's foes? Well, they are Gulf countries who are monarchies. Zero democracy. Women in most Gulf States are treated like chattel. In Saudi, people are beheaded if they practice Christianity or convert to it. But....but...Saudi is involved in 3 Trump projects. The UAE put $500 million into Trump's family business. They used the meme coin Trump created in their crypto portfolio. All that adds up to $2 billion. Jared Kushner got $2 billion from the Saudis to manage, despite hm having zero fund management experience. At the time Saudi gave him the money, Trump rationalized it by saying, "Jared is a private citizen who will never work for the USG again." That did not age well. Jared was one of two people (the other being an RE investor friend of Trump) leading the negotiations with Iran. In contrast to Iran, North Korea DOES Have ICBMs that can reach the US (Hwasong 20). During Trump 1.0, they hoodwinked Trump with love letters, all while speeding up enrichment, figuring how to miniaturize nukes so they could be mounted on missiles, and developed missiles that can reach the US mainland. They execute people by the stadium-load and starve thousands every year. They recently executed children who were watching videos from outside. But....no strikes against the DPRK. So we have a new foreign war from the "Peace POTUS", we're the world's policeman, we're engaged in regime change, and maybe even nation building......all things Trump campaigned against. This is a war of choice with no believable rationale. We already have a few "suckers and losers" who have paid the ultimate price for the demented President's diversion from Epstein and his self-dealing with Gulf dictatorial monarchies.

Oh, so 35,000 dead kids were all "human shields". You are a bunch of stone cold <deleted>. You've likely never been in war, never seen blown up kids, kids with arms blown off, kids' heads lying in a gutter. Perhaps you'll see it one day in your own loved ones; then you might begin to understand.

I now have the answer: Fears over the yen carry trade and the massive leverage that has created in everything from bitcoin to the Magnificent Seven stocks. Total borrowings related to the carry trade are maybe $900 billion, while derivatives that are based on the carry trade have a notional value of about $4 trillion, with some estimates as high as $20 trillion. Inflation is picking up in Japan. Despite rate rises by the BoJ, the yen remains weak, which might suggest the yen carry trade is actually increasing. A while back a surprise rate hike by the BoJ took 12% out of the Nikkei in a day. It seems the NY Fed is opening the repo window---no limit as of mid-December 2025---in order to get in front of what might happen to asset prices in the wildly leverage US markets if the BoJ decides on another rate hike. That makes the 220% value to GDP of the US market, plus the $1.2 trillion in margin buying quite vulnerable.

A dangerous precedent has been set. In 2026, it is okay for a foreign nation to kidnap or kill the leader of another sovereign nation. Nobody is saying Khamenei was a good guy nor Maduro a good leader, but isn't it interesting that their support and approval ratings in their own country are the same as the approval rating of Trump in the US. They all "enjoyed" around 35% support and around 55-60% disapproval. Does that mean any country is now free to take a shot at removing the increasingly unpopular Trump? He set this precedent.

Honestly, have you ever thought in your lifetime that the fascist right would support and be in bed with monarchs, who reached their position not via democracy, but simply by birth. Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait...all monarchist dictatorships.

Bob Gates, who held positions as DCI and SecDef, used to ask after a strike: "How many terrorists did we create today?" There is always a reaction. The parents and relatives of the girls killed in the school struck in Mineb are likely angry and will look for revenge.

The US has killed innocent civilians. There is a saying in the Middle East, though more Arab than Persian, that says, "Me against my brother; my brother and I against you". We have to expect some retaliation that results in the death on non-combatant Americans. Iran has sleeper cells everywhere, including such distant places as Pattaya. I will not be surprised if some of these cells take out a few Americans in Patts. One other thing I have not seen mentioned is that Iran is in the top 5 in the world in terms of hacking ability. They can go after parts of the grid in the US, nuclear power plants, air traffic control systems, banking systems, even the weaponry the US has accumulated in the Gulf. The longer this goes on, with more strikes in Iran, the greater the likelihood some or most of these things happen.

I can understand that. Imagine the tens of millions of patriotic Americans who would celebrate a move by Canada or Denmark or another former ally to take out the US' self-proclaimed 'supreme leader' ("Article 2 says I can do whatever I want").

So I'm curious....North Korea has nukes. They have the Hwasong 20 which can hit anyplace in the US. During Trump 1.0 they miniaturized their nukes so as to be able to mount them on missiles. They slaughter tens of thousands of their own people, while starving others to death. They represent a major threat to allies like South Korea and Japan. Certainly the same rationale for attacking Iran exists with North Korea, but Trump loves the little fat dictator.

They're thinking they paid $1 billion to join, and now they're under attack. Not exactly money well spent.

What's the most likely regime change? Maybe Iran. If lots of Israelis die from missile strikes, Israeli regime change. If many Americans die, US regime change, led by a Blue Tsunami in the midterms, and all Trump would be able to do for 2 years---if he lives---is play golf on the taxpayers' tab. Even Gulf monarchies could fall.

If China delivered their CM-302 "carrier killer" missiles to Iran, the US fleet is in danger. 500 kg warhead, 400 km range, Mach 3 speed, and it flies a few feet above the water. Fire three at once, and at least one will strike, as defense capability is maybe 67% effective. Many people knew Trump would launch his attack after the Friday stock market close. Obviously the Iranians knew, too, which is why they have been able to hit places like Bahrain and the UAE so quickly. They likely sent their leadership far and wide. Iran is fully capable of closing the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting ME oil. As a Shi'a state, Iran has proxies in the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia, which is largely Shi'a. That is also where Saudi oil comes from. The GOSPs (gas oil separating plants) are offshore and easy targets, which could take Saudi out of the oil market for years. If Hormuz is closed, that also blocks Qatari nat gas. This attack looks to be a major win for the gas station known as Russia. The threat was not imminent. It is possible tens of thousands of people in a host of countries are going to die. Also, it is highly unlikely Trump has any plan for what comes next. No food in Iran? No water? No electricity? Is the US---which Trump used to claim was not the world's policeman, not going to engage in regime change, and not into nation building---now going to do all 3? And of course, 100%, the Epstein Files played a major role in Trump's decision to attack now, especially after he claimed "I destroyed Iran's entire enrichment capability". Yet now, "Iran is a week away from weapons grade material". Iran, after it began enrichment when Trump abrogated the JCPOA, was barely able to enrich to 50% when Trump first attacked. Weapons grade is 93% U235. If all of their facility were destroyed before, as Trump claimed, the equipment needed to enrich---high speed centrifuges---are quite precise and not available at Home Depot. It would take years to rebuild, if they were truly destroyed last year.

History has "The War of Jenkins Ear" This will be called "The War of the Epstein Files".

As expected and noted in an earlier post, Friday after the markets close is when Trump attacks. This may end up being a proxy war, as China apparently has given Iran CM-302 "carrier killer" missiles. They can carry a 500 kg warhead, have a range of about 400 km, and can reach speeds of Mach 3.

The US has to lose its virginity, when it comes to prosecuting former Presidents. It isn't as if the office still holds any respect, as Trump ruined that. NOBODY Is above the law. How unsurprising that six career FBI agents were fired this week because they were involved in trying to retrieve the highly classified documents Trump stole. Equally unsurprising is that Judge Cannon has blocked former SC Jack Smith from releasing his investigation into the same theft. France prosecuted Sarkozy. South Korea has jailed several former Presidents. Even one SEAsia country has sort of, sometimes, kind of prosecuted and jailed, at least for a day, a former PM.

The FBI interviewed the accuser 4 times. What she told them had enough credibility that they went back 3 times after the initial interview. If the accusations were not credible, there would not have been 3 followups. Also, the fact that the AG pulled the interview documents certainly looks bad. When she claimed, under oath in the House Hearing, that"nothing implicated Trump", that is a lie. Is perjury now okay if a MAGA does it? So instead of the Republican House calling this woman or calling any of the victims, they call Hillary. That just makes them look bad and scared, trying to control the narrative. Reps like Comer claim, with no proof whatsoever, "85% of the people in the files are Democrats". So how many files did Bondi have to pull to raise it to 85%? Because of the House resolution on releasing the files, all the files, unredacted, Bondi has only two choices: claim there is an ongoing investigation of Trump, or release the files. Anything else and she breaks the law yet again. This is not going to go away, and the more the corrupt and lying DoJ tries to hide the truth, the more they show there IS something to hide. Eventually I suspect it will be accepted fact that Trump raped a minor or minors. MAGAs will then have to wait until a new excuse and justification can be provided, so that they remain on the same page and their messiah remains their hero.