Publicus

Europe knows that what's been called Trump's Trade War against China is in fact the USA response to the CCP's attacks -- now led by Xi Jinping -- against both trade and the entire post WW II global system. Beijing's practice of its mercantilism is also designed to bust up international rules of trade, interaction, interrelationships. 

Trump's so called Trade War is in fact a counterattack against Beijing's industrial espionage, intellectual theft, restrictions on capital, investment and imports, a multiplicity of regulatory and bureaucratic barriers and controls. It is to reverse Beijing's policies to support its own exports with massive and extensive subsidies to include of course price dumping, threats to cut off medical supplies during the global pandemic and so on as yet another means of its political control throughout the West. 

The drive of the CCP Dictator-Tyrants in Beijing is to become a global hegemon -- a word they use all the time against the USA -- and now the US has got busy putting a stop to it by first slowing and reversing it. The European economy is itself more than strong enough to allow negotiation on better than a level playing field against the CCP. So the challenge is to get the Europeans and the USA with Japan back together to play in the same league against the other guy in the opposing league led by Beijing and where they hate democracy and human rights with a malign passion. 

On 9/15/2020 at 3:27 PM, DrTuner said:

First demand should be turning off the Great Firewall. After that, CCP would eventually be toppled by the Chinese themselves, after they see what the world thinks of them.

 

Otherwise, wall the commies in and throw long knives over the wall. Check again in 200 years.

Every China dynasty has failed, each and every one of 'em. 

The present bunch of CCP Boyz in Beijing are but another Chinese dynasty, this time in business suits and Florsheims. CCP and their wholly owned and operated PRC Government constitute a young and nervous dynasty which is why they are more obsessed about internal control than any dynasty that came before it and collapsed. This dynasty has unprecedented technological controls as you reference in your post, controls they are correct to believe precludes another Tiananmen by 'em.

The inherent flaw that will take down the CCP dynasty is that when things get tough as they are presently the Chinese give more power and authority to the ruler who is also the guy who is mucking up things. Xi has already become emperor for life and this is the dead giveaway the CCP dynasty has already begun its decline. Indeed, the CCP Dynasty that is built on quicksand will be long gone 200 years from now.   

Here's an account of what Trump said about Gen. Kelly as a source of the quotes and the media publicity of 'em. Gen. retired Dunford who was present is not mentioned in this article, nor is the fact Dunford was present at the Kelly gravesite mentioned much in most articles.

Trump disliked Dunford hugely, replacing Dunford on the NSC with Stephen Bannon. Dunford was restored to the NSC with strong support of the then SecDef Mattis and Kelly as WH chief of staff. Trump considered Dunford to be an egghead, ie, thoughtful, analytical, consistent.    

Trump says John Kelly could be source for salacious article on U.S. war dead

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/sep/4/trump-says-john-kelly-could-be-source-for-salaciou/

On 9/9/2020 at 11:19 PM, nattaya09 said:

Bolton and Kelly were there. Bolton would have featured it prominently in his book had it happened. Neither of these men are big Trump fans yet both know nothing of it. The "anonymous source", if they exist, should come forward and convince us that they were in a more credible position than the Chief of Staff and National Security Adviser 

Trump said "a John Kelly could have done that" in confirming a reporter's question concerning whether Gen. retired Kelly could have been a source, or the main source. Indeed, virtually every one of the thousands of political animals in Washington knows or believes absolutely Kelly is the principal source.

John Bolton said in his Fox interview Trump did not make the remark when Bolton was in the room and Trump was advised the trip to the cemetery was cancelled due to weather and security concerns about a motorcade over that distance and physical environment. Bolton said "I can't prove a negative," when he noted he was not with Trump before or after the briefing in which the trip was cancelled. Bolton did note Trump insults people whose last name is not Trump.

Kelly was of course at the grave of his Marine 1LT son Robert in Arlington National Cemetery on the Memorial Day when Trump made his grotesque remark of "What's in it for them?" among other crass statements about deceased members of the armed forces since 1776.

Also present was Marine Gen. "Fighting Joe" Dunford the then chairman of JCS and former commandant, Marine Corps, who was a witness and who in his retirement since last year may also be one of the 4 sources. Each Kelly and Dunford remains silent, saying only that he can neither confirm nor deny the reports about Trump's gross statements. In Washington-speak "neither confirm nor deny" something means it's true and because discretion is the better part of valor you won't or you can't say it publicly. State Department uses it almost daily about one thing or another, as does the Pentagon, CIA and the rest of 'em.

Moreover, each Kelly and Dunford spent more than 40 years living each day by the chain of command so neither of 'em is going to become a 4-star general officer publicly telling the commander in chief and potus he's unfit and unsuitable to be either and both. A public pissing match of this kind would be horrendous for civil-military relations in the USA that would be made worse yet because other 4-star retired flag officers would very likely feel compelled to speak up for Kelly and Dunford, to include the other sources.  

Xi Jin Pingpong has made clear the Boyz in Beijing want to dominate the world in (their stolen) technology by 2025 yet no Potus is going to sign up for that. U.S. Government is in fact unsigning from the many giveaway deals it's made over the past 30 years in particular. So anything that hurts or hinders the Tencent owner of WeChat, QQ and much else is good -- excellent indeed.

US, Japan and EU are developing our own 5G technology rather than rely on the Chinese Communist Party owned and operated Government of the People's Republic to run with it. We got WeChat out of the QQ platform copied by the owner of Tencent who the Party sent to the University of Chicago graduate school of business to learn how to do all of this stuff and more.

CCP Dictator-Tyrants in Beijing have been sucking off the teat of the United States for more than 40 years so its past time to bust up the party with its fun and games and to turn out the lights over there. Pull the plug on 'em tug by tug which is what this does. 

2 hours ago, Mama Noodle said:

Two things:

 

1 - Its about to get really nasty in American politics. 

 

2 - Before anyone invokes the "McConnel Rule" and revisits history, the rule was that SC seats shouldn't be filled in an election year if the WH and the Senate are controlled by different parties. 

No matter how you slice it, it's still baloney. 

Because where I come from it's called the Five Minute Rule. It was a rule for the 5 minutes it took McConnel to say it then walk off to end the rule forever. 

That's why baloney is still called baloney.  

On 9/16/2020 at 1:09 AM, geriatrickid said:

China is holding several Canadians hostage.

It tried similar with an Australian.

The only two countries China won't threaten are Russia and the USA.

True yet I'm back in China again and Americans are getting hassled in what are normally routine matters that never get attention. 

I get stopped to produce my Residence Permit papers which hadn't ever happened until this year. Americans in China I know are getting the same thing. 

Americans suddenly this year have to pay for a Visa extension when no one ever had to pay to get a Visa stamp for whatever number of dayze, whether it be 30 dayze, 60, 90. 

And in having suddenly to pay for visa extension, Americans are paying 1000 RMB/Yuan for the dayze while others suddenly have to pay RMB/Yuan 150 or 200 in comparison. 

I used to be able to go to Hong Kong routinely for the visa extension stamp to turn around and reenter the mainland for that stamp, no charge, which was the case for every foreign devil. Since Covid19 however HKG will quarantine you if they think you're viral, and an American from the mainland is target number one.

I haven't returned to the USA this year for even a short stay because it definitely would brand me to be isolated on my return to China and my business consultancy. Already a Chines medical doctor refused to authorize my blood pressure meds because she said I could not prove I had not been in USA this year despite my showing her my passport stamps and all. The doctor demanded I prove it so I showed her my passport and she simply said NO. She's one of the few MDs in China who know English btw.

So while no foreign devil goes to HKG anymore for visa extension, Americans absolutely don't go. We have to go to the local Public Security Bureau Flatfoot Police who are the guys who follow people around on suspicion. This is in contrast btw to the Public Safety Bureau Flatfoot cops who chase a thief running out of a shop with a fistful of cash...they don't chase him far before they give it up btw.  

It takes the Security Bureau Flatfoot Cops several dayze to process your extension as opposed to taking a couple of hours for you to process out of the mainland into HKG, turn around and process out of HKG back onto the mainland with stamps in your passport, and no fee involved. 

I'm well known and accepted in the neighborhood where I live and work yet even the residence building private security guards want to see my Residence Permit papers now whereas they never asked previously. It's normal for Security Police to canvass the residence building -- each building in China -- to know who lives there and, for a foreign devil such as myself, to show passport with proper visa, confirmation of employment, name of employer; and to say why you decided to come to China in the first place. The Flatfoots are businesslike about it yet what I want to tell 'em is that I came to China for the globally recognized Wuhan bat fried rice.   

On 9/16/2020 at 4:36 AM, onebir said:

I left China in Dec 2019, with 6 hour overstay, on a 6m visa (UK passport) because my original flight had been shifted, I'd missed my connecting flight and the flight I'd rebooked had been delayed. Passport control questioned me for at least half an hour, asking for documentation of all the above, before letting me go.

 

Until pretty recently, overstays of less than 24 hours were just waved through; overstay a few days and you'd get a minor. So there was already a clear change even then: Chinese officialdom is dishing out maximum punishments to foreigners for minor infringements.

 

My American neighbour on one of those flights confirmed this impression: a colleague of his had recently miscalculated his dates - easily done because only entry dates are stamped, and the official basis for calculation is not well-publicised - and overstayed by one day. When attempting to exit he was given a choice between a five year blacklisting, or applying for an emergency visa extension at his local immigration office, and rebooking his flight out. He apparently chose the latter at significant expense.

China immi are simply a part of the authoritarian and secretive regime when it comes to visa runs and overstay, ie, the date they stamp is not the date. The date China immi stamps is your one day overstay. Every expat gets this so it's an equal opportunity screw job. 

In Thailand and later in China I never had to concern myself with it because the employer whomever it was took care of everything. In the Former Land of Smiles and in China the employer loaded those of us whose turn it was to get a new one year visa into a van, took us to immi and we got processed. Yet while being processed in China we always saw a bunch of expats being screwed for a one day overstay. 

In China they cancelled your Visa for the one day overstay, made you go to your local Public Security Bureau Police to get a 30 day visa for 1000 RMB/Yuan and exit the country. This applied to everyone even though while I was in China three passports were considered golden, the UK, USA, Australia. Even Russia was not favored anywhere near these three and still isn't given the characters who appear on foreign shores from Russia. Yet still today -- and presently especially -- Americans who overstay by even one day get busted out of China; same for Aussies and Brits.

The small comfort if there might be one is that you left China with a valid visa rather than being denied on your application for one, so you were able to return without having to try to explain away being denied a visa on your applying for it. The worst expats treated for overstay are Africans who are made to beg and argue for even the 30 day punishment visa. 

Get used to the fact no one can criticise 'em over there about anything. No critiques accepted. No wrongs admitted. No possibility anyone outside of China might have a point.

While many Americans readily say Donald Trump is an ignoramus, no Chinese would say that of any of their leaders or any wannabe leaders. (That is of course because it is impossible a CCP leader could be an ignoramus, or that there could in fact be chaos within the CCP among its factions.)

But CCP Chinese will tell us in a New York minute they believe Trump is a crackpot -- but that democracy itself is crackpot stuff too as the CCP Chinese continue to drive using the rear view mirror.

The CCP paradigm of political economy is fundamentally flawed and flat out wrong. The comfort to all of us is however that China and the Chinese will survive that too. So we do look forward to moving in on a humongous scale to get the place right for the first time in 5000 years.

Chinese never accept any critisism of China or Chinese. They always immediately point the finger elsewhere at other people, societies, countries, places rather than address CCP failures or shortcomings.

Time will make 'em perfect so don't criticise now cause it's only temporary. Despite 5000 years of practice, the Chinese now led by the CCP still believe their own nonsense defenses and deflections remain viable.

So let's take a quick look at reality cause we ain't gonna get any from any CCPs....

No single or national system of political economy can make 1,300,000,000 people rich.

Or even middle class.

Either or both is beyond even a market system of political economy.

Worse, it is self-destructive of China to have a one party state which owns and operates corporate conglomerates in transportation, communication, production, and which are based on the principle that workers pretend to do work and the state pretends to pay them.

I refer of course the the CCP's Parker Brothers board game money and currency.

CCP has btw devastated the environment. China's air, water, land are thoroughly polluted beyond recovery. CCP in its genius made this disastrous decision 30 years ago. That was when CCP decided to focus on GDP growth only and to concern itself about the environmental consequences later. CCP rationale was that Europe and the US tolerated pollution during its industrial growth, yet have more recently focused on it. One flaw in this lamebrain CCP system of policy and priorities was that the CCP masters of the universe had been looking at the 19th century experience. What CCP did not figure was that while the 19th century was bad enough, it was thoroughly different from post WW2 technologies and economies in Europe and N America and the population had become greater and even more concentrated.

CCP can't reverse the devastation of the environment which indicates its problem across the board in changing and adapting to a means of production that is responsible, efficient, effective, viable, sustainable. That is, all that CCP suddenly does or can do is too little too late. The consequence in the present is that it is game over.

It is a serious mess in the CCP's China but CCP are too vested in their one party state and its monopolies to get the best minds of the world involved to figure out a way to save China.

From itself.

Hey Harsh, long time no see...how're u doin these dayze.

Maybe it's past time for youse guyz who are CCP fanboyz to think about throwing in the towel too.

Cause I think I see a white flag being pulled out of a cheap cardboard box.

The United States will remain the world’s leading power for a long time, Foreign Minister Wang Yi said on Friday, but he stressed global affairs should not be dominated by one country.

When asked whether China, the world’s second largest economy, had prepared to replace a declining US as global leader, Wang replied “from what we know about the country, the US will probably remain the world’s No 1 for a fairly long time”.

Wang denied China would “fill the vacuum” in the Middle East after the US withdrew its forces from the region. The people of those nations should work together for a better future, he said, but other countries would help.

http://www.scmp.com/...wer-fairly-long

Just a reminder here Harsh that Daiwa Research has projected minus 20% off CCP GDP growth by 2020. Daiwa spent a lot of time examining CCP's capital position past, present and going forward. Backward actually.

Remaining the world's Number One power and for a long time to come acknowledges a certain supremacy of one economic system over the other -- more specifically, the USA market economy over the CCP's one party state command economy dominated by not reformable state owned and operated conglomerates.

It looks something like this....quite exactly this in fact...

Export growth stopped in 2012 and had been dropping off since then. Exports went negative early last year. Exports have gone sharply negative since then. Exports won't get any better. Import growth stinks even worse and everyone is still counting.

Manufacturing continues to decline so CCP points to its efforts under Xi Jinping and PM Li Kejiang to increase the services sector which everyone agrees is the key to rebalancing the state enterprise and infrastructure economy to a consumer economy based on rising household income.

Service sector jobs are up and increasing at a steady rate. That's the good news. However, as we well know, good news perpetually has its bad news side.

The bad news in the growth of service sector jobs is the nature of the new and increasing service sector jobs. CCP China now has more hairdressers, street vendors, nurses and the like than ever before. Jobs that pay the same as factory jobs.

The long and the short of it is that the dog continues to chase its tail over there.

“Wealth creation is there to increase the security of the state. If economic reform is seen at a lesser level to enhancing the security of the state, it is going to be sidelined.”

---Bain & Company managing director Karen Harris, April 9, 2016.

(And if anyone knows anything about vulture economics it would be Bain & Company.)

While the above poster continues to gleefully and errantly predict the imminent collapse of the evil, corrupt Chinese empire and all of its greedy foreign co-conspirators, FT is reporting today a somewhat different view.

Fundamentals have certainly improved since the renminbi’s sharp fall in early January sent shockwaves through global markets. Predictions that uncontrolled capital flight would lead to a collapse in the renminbi, or rapid depletion of China’s reserves, now look increasingly rash.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/da54332e-15b8-11e6-b8d5-4c1fcdbe169f.html#axzz48CkMJ5Aq

Those whose principal experience in business in China consists of negotiating prices at the food stall markets may not realize the fundamental depth of Chinese market, and that it is not built solely on smoke and mirrors and backroom illegal payoffs, but that it really makes things that create value to the world. Capital outflows are still there, and it's certainly not in great shape, but just as capitalist markets adjust in the west, so too will China. And, of course, the People's Bank of China will not let control of its exchange rate go, but then most knew that.

And, for sure, as the article states, reforms are on hold so that stability can be maintained, and it is by no means in good shape, but in no danger of collapsing imminently.

Over the past six months this poster has stood in factories in the CCP China where there has been zero production during the time period.

You want to disparage or dismiss what someone sees, knows, experiences, then there's not much to discuss.

The color of money will color anyone's views concerning anything. The greed green for the USD or the red rmb of Chairman Mao and his "some must get rich first" Deng Xiaoping principle. Only some however, as in the CCP and friends.

$4 Trillion in CCP corruption since 2005.

A $15 Trillion economy built on quicksand which cannot possibly make 1.6 billion people middle class. Or any class. It can and does however make wealthy a small elite and their chosen servants and sycophants.

All of that windfall constitutes the good life among only a few people. It will cause anyone grubbing after big bucks to overlook a lot of fundamentally obnoxious realities, selfish and cruel rulers. It's a grand scheme that can only last so long before it collapses of its own dead weight.

We are watching the wind-down unfold. Easy come easy go.

^ The older report you cited correctly identifies Vietnam and Indo, but overstates the importance of Lao and Cambo in terms of global supply chain effectiveness. And, as usual, you grossly, inaccurately and prematurely predict the demise of a China you obviously despise.

Your analysis predicting the downfall of China is similar to those who predicted the downfall of US competitiveness as wages rose. Among others, there are two key reasons why China will continue to occupy a central role in this "expansion of the workroom" to Indo and Vietnam (and to Cambo & Lao to a lesser extent): shipping costs/frequency and air/sea port costs/frequency and availability.

Just as the US producers beat a path to China and invested in Chinese factories, and Chinese factories emerged in their own right, yes, those producers have now been seeking and finding cheaper places for low wage manufacturing. However, China has the most extensive and CHEAPEST international freight structure in global shipping, because of the massive infrastructure, and the FREQUENCY of vessel sailings. To understand this, think of yourself traveling to places like Bangkok, Hong Kong, and Singapore. Flights are cheapest to/from those destination hubs than other places in Asia because market demand drives more entrants and lower prices. It's cheaper to fly to Bangkok from anywhere than to fly to Phnom Penh.

So, the ability of Chinese producers to find feeder & break bulk shipping to the main China ports for onward shipping to the US/Europe/World in these places is superior than these small countries have by themselves. For that reason, Chinese/American/global MNC companies will simply plug and play the most optimized place for continued expansion of cheap labor. Other places cited in the report will develop slowly, but will not be competitors in the short term.

China will develop its backyard (in concert and in competition with other global players) in a rational way. This will result in job predictable displacement in China, but it will be the same issue now facing the Trump supporters in the USA. There will need to be a plan to move them up the value chain, retrain, retool and focus on higher technology, which China is doing. Huawei, ZTE, Datang, Lenovo, Xiaomi, and many other exciting and emerging tech companies are moving China up the value chain, just as America did. For sure, there is a bigger danger of job displacement with the huge number of people, and civil unrest, but it is not the beginning of the end of the CCP China.

it is not the beginning of the end of the CCP China.

CCP will be there for a long time to come, yes. No matter what and for sure, yes. CCP is cooked but far from finished.

After the Tiananmen Square Massacre in 1989 CCP created the People's Armed Police as the force to handle any such events in the future. PLA had complained directly to the Butcher of Tiananmen Deng Xiaoping that it would not do that again.

Hence the PAP.

PAP numbers 850,000 paramilitary police in 48 divisions stationed in garrisons in each province. The PAP budget is greater than the budget of the entire CCP armed forces. Every CCP Chinese knows this because CCP makes it well known to the general population in the interests of deterrence. All the same, CCP will slaughter 100,000,000 Chinese if necessary to remain in power (at least that number and lots more if deemed necessary).

This poster had stated many times in many CCP threads over a long period of time that the CCP China will always be there no matter what. No matter that its economy is in a steady and continually volatile decline that is structural and not capable of being reformed, i.e., irreversible.

China has always had wealth and CCP China will continue to have great wealth. No matter that the rich wealth of China is concentrated in the CCP rather than in the people as consumers. China's enormous wealth will always exist no matter the state of the general population, as any money grubbing shameless foreign opportunist well knows. CCP and wealth will always be there and so will the smug and self-satisfied fatcat foreign devils whose only interest is the color of money.

Trump is an idiot CCP can deal with allowing him to brandish some ridiculous stuff on stage and get his 15 mins of fame

HC is tougher but less effective as her stance as Secretary of State was already well stated and she has not much she has not revealed that she can do to China

Bottom line whoever wins is going to have their time showing their toughness to China but life goes on and the CCP will let them have their 4 years.

The next president and the next still have to deal with President Xi and share the world stage with him

Interesting how you assume President Xi will still be around in 4 years.. He's shown that he hasn't got the nerve, the intelligence or the support to face head-on the grave economic problems threatening China's economy.

If you understand the Chinese way you already know he will be here to serve out his term and also who is next mate ....

The Chinese don't swap out presidents ...they serve a term and the term is 10 years. Unless he hugs an American flag at the next Tiananmen Square parade , his job is safer than anyone else

Au contraire.

It is yet another instance of the Asian strongman forever rule invented thousands of years ago in the Middle Kingdom.....

Foreign and Chinese observers surprised at Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s maneuvers to shake up the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) — and at the same time arrogate powers of the party, state, and military to himself — may be in for another shock. Just two and a half years into his reign, Xi appears to be angling to break the 10-year-tenure rule for the country’s supreme leader, with the aim of serving longer than any Chinese ruler in decades.

According to three sources close to top CCP officials, Xi and several top aides are making plans to ensure that the strongman will rule until at least 2027, when he will still be a relatively sprightly 74 years old.

“Xi’s total dominance of the party-state-military apparatus — and the fact that he has so far not groomed any successor — indicates that he will remain China’s supreme ruler irrespective of whether he gives up his post of CCP general secretary in 2022,” said one of the sources, all three of whom asked to remain anonymous because of the sensitivity of discussing elite politics.

While much could happen to derail Xi’s plans — including pushback from rivals, an international or domestic crisis, or health issues, among other things — Xi appears to be planning to stay in office for as long as he can.

http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/04/01/xi-jinping-forever-china-president-term-limits/ (emphasis added)

While lunar crackpot rightists in the USA remain convinced President Obama will declare some kind of martial law to remain in office forever, USA will of course and unquestionably continue to observe its Constitution that limits a Potus to two elections max, i.e., two 4-year terms.

In contrast however, rulers in the CCP China will sooner or later defy the two 5-year term limit in the Party constitution that rules the land. Looks increasingly like Xi Jinping is the guy in this contemporary instance of the Middle Kingdom restored.

CCP are but another Chinese dynasty except CCP wear business suits. So rotsa ruck with that. The CCP economic slowdown and persistently irreversable decline will mean the existing elites with their own wealth and power will and must needs be hang onto it no matter what.

Economic reform in CCP China is kaput and there never was any political or cultural reform.

Trump is an idiot CCP can deal with allowing him to brandish some ridiculous stuff on stage and get his 15 mins of fame

HC is tougher but less effective as her stance as Secretary of State was already well stated and she has not much she has not revealed that she can do to China

Bottom line whoever wins is going to have their time showing their toughness to China but life goes on and the CCP will let them have their 4 years.

The next president and the next still have to deal with President Xi and share the world stage with him

CCP is percolating with Trumps just as it always has been, along with their fierce fenqing supporters. Because CCP is a closed and secretive place we don't see 'em daily or hardly ever, and few in the West know 'em by name or by their particular personal and ideological dementia.

Anyone who might think CCP does not have its extremist lunatic crackpots in the Party and, as in the case of the fenqing in the society in general would need to be pinched to come out of his dreamland of oblivion and naivete.

Last year with CCP financial crashes from the stock markets to the currency as with much else pulled back the curtain on the CCP to reveal they're not in charge of their economy or of its financial systems...and that they never have been in effective control of the runaway heavy construction markets.

The CCP Boyz don't know any more about what they're going than Trump does, to include the extremist nativist supporters of each of 'em.

It seems CCP would rather have Trump than HRC despite Trump's wild statements about the CCP.

Trump moreover has no stated (or suspected) awareness of the CCP's crumbling and declining economy that beginning last year entered a long period of increasing seizures from the equity markets to its currency and so on. Long period as in a decade of decline and economic stagnation.

As this poster has noted consistently in the numerous threads on these topics, China will always be there and there it will remain, even after the economic grim reaper finally makes his serious business housecall. There always has been wealth in China and China will continue to have wealth...so the foreign the money grubbers will predictably continue to look only at the color of people's money while ignoring the CCP's fatally flawed ideology and the pre-CCP Chinese history of failure.

In China, a frequent target of Mr. Trump’s criticism, he is widely viewed as a pragmatist who is less hawkish and less focused on human rights than Mrs. Clinton is.

His proposal to impose high taxes on Chinese goods receives little attention there, and his talk of China’s “raping” the United States in unfair trade deals has been met with shrugs, as if to say that charge is nothing new. Instead, the conversation focuses on Mr. Trump’s business success or his pronouncements on preventing foreign Muslims from entering the United States, an attitude that jibes with the antipathy in much of China toward the Muslim population in the western province of Xinjiang.

“Many in China believe a pro-business Republican president will tend to be pragmatic and China-friendly, if not pro-China,” said Wang Dong, associate professor of international studies at Peking University. “Therefore, many in China tend to view Trump’s remarks of imposing more than 30 percent of tariffs on China as rhetorical campaign language.”

Mr. Trump’s assertion that American troops in South Korea and Japan should be sent back to the United States is in alignment with official, though rarely stated, Chinese goals. But his suggestion, later reversed in part, that Japan and South Korea should be able to develop their own nuclear arsenals alarmed Beijing, especially the notion that Japan, the occupier of China in World War II, would become a nuclear power.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/06/world/europe/donald-trump-foreign-policy.html?&moduleDetail=section-news-2&action=click&contentCollection=Politics&region=Footer&module=MoreInSection&version=WhatsNext&contentID=WhatsNext&pgtype=article

CCP fanboyz ignore the developing trends or they don't care to discuss them.

By the year 2013 as many as 16 mostly rear echelon emerging market countries had begun to succeed the CCP's China in low wage low cost unskilled or low skilled manufacturing. The fact had been pointed out previously at the CCP threads over a couple of years. Yet, CCP fanboyz conduct themselves as if this development already underway did not exist or that it did not matter to 'em.

It probably doesn't matter to the CCP fanboyz cause they'll continue to make bucks off the CCP regardless. While the CCP's economy is moving inexorably for a "major structural adjustment" as in collapse and crash, it remains true CCP will still be there and will still generate bucks for the big bucks fahlang foreign devils there and elsewhere for some time to come.

PC16: Sixteen Countries Quietly Filling Void Left by Declining China

JULY 30, 2013

China's economic problems have opened the door for 16 disparate countries, from Ethiopia and Mexico to Indonesia and Peru, to become global drivers of manufacturing growth, according to a new report issued today by Stratfor, a leading geopolitical intelligence firm. As early as January of 2000, Stratfor has forecast the slowdown and shift of the Chinese economy and the firm asserts that China is now at the limits of its low wage, high growth phase and now asserts that the "The Post-China 16" or "PC16" will succeed it.

The PC16 by region:

• Indian Ocean Basin - Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Indonesia, and Myanmar
• South China Sea periphery - Cambodia, Laos, the Philippines, and Vietnam
• Latin America - Dominican Republic, Mexico, Nicaragua, and Peru

Some of the countries on the list seem unlikely successors to an economic powerhouse like China, while others have been identified in reports by other firms.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/pc16-sixteen-countries-quietly-filling-120000197.html

https://www.stratfor.com/weekly/pc16-identifying-chinas-successors

Anyone who thinks these backward countries with their Old World ways will fleece or hoodwink the USA or the EU must also believe that True North is somewhere down in the global South.

Fact is the CCP and its PRC are already fleeced as those who are standing there with the shearers well know. Except for the True Believers who continue to see CCP in all of its bushy fluff.

It has been noted by Prof. Christopher Balding, professor of economics at Peking University in Beijing, that CCP economists treat their financial markets as if CCP were running a shoe factory. That they haven't any idea of any difference. Never mind of the radical differences.

To the CCP Boyz, if the economy isn't moving and if the financial sector is moribund, well then order up more money (tons of it) to pay wages and expenses, ramp up yet more money into PR and advertising, then change some colors and throw out the tie strings -- and do it very quickly so you hope nobody notices. Then deny everything.

So, in respect of the needed rebalancing of the economy away from infrastructure to household wealth, “I think you guys already missed that off-ramp,” Prof Baldwin noted the other day.

The Royal Bank of Scotland thinks China has exactly the same problems as before and has abandoned the rebalancing objective to keep the economy from crashing.

“The economy remains beset by: an excessive reliance on investment driven growth; a structurally low share of GDP going to household incomes; overcapacity in key sectors; hidden non-performing loans in the banking sector [and] ad-hoc, reactive policy-making that fails to address the underlying distortions in the economy.”

Or in the words of famous psychologist Abraham Maslow: “I suppose it is tempting, if the only tool you have is a hammer, to treat everything as if it were a nail.”

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/acd3f2fc-084a-11e6-876d-b823056b209b.html#axzz47aol6pIA

The ramp up in debt is reminiscent of the financial crisis (Royal Bank of Scotland)

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/acd3f2fc-084a-11e6-876d-b823056b209b.html#axzz47aol6pIA

So that is 1.5 Trillion yuan "temporary loan" plus 2 Trillion yuan "temporary loan" plus 2.5 Trillion yuan "temporary loan" thrown at banks that have only increasing non-performing loans. Something like 8 Trillion yuan down the hole -- permanently.

And no it's not Gordon Chang although he's right too in his basic point, stated in his book, The Coming Collapse of China.

It is Prof. Michael Pettis who is professor of finance at Peking University in Beijing and who has for years blogged and spoken freely about the CCP economy.

Prof. Pettit's first and most important learners have of course been the CCP Boyz in Beijing. They learn from him and they believe him, so they try to do as he suggests.

However, the Boyz don't execute very well, as Prof. Pettis has bloged for a number of years and as he elaborates in this interview with Fortune zine.

Here is the bottom line of it.....

Meet the Man Who Predicted the Chinese Economic Collapse

JANUARY 23, 2016

"If you look at the 3rd plenum reforms in 2013, almost all of them aim to [boost consumption] But to actually accomplish these goals, you have to reduce somebody’s wealth, and guess whose wealth it is? The government and the wealthy. So there’s a lot of opposition."

"The [CCP] economists keep giving the [Xi and Li] administration terrible advice, like if you improve the efficiency of, say the peanut business, that’s going to make a difference. They have to recognize that reforms that don’t reduce debt or increase household wealth are simply not going to matter. And that’s the end of the story."

"If GDP growth is 1/10th of a point higher than expected, instead of applauding, we should be groaning. You can get any level of growth you want as long as you increase debt. Obama could get 7% growth if he wanted, if he tore Chicago to the ground and rebuilt it. It’s just a stupid way of getting growth."

http://fortune.com/2016/01/23/china-collapse/

Prof. Pettis, who'd been on Wall Street before being recruited by CCP, notes that the immediate problem of CCP is that it is pursuing GDP growth to try to catch up with the growth of debt. The opposite needs to occur however, i.e., the rate of debt growth must be exceeded by the rate of GDP growth. CCP's perennial 30 years of failures in this central respect constitute the failure of the CCP and of its PRC itself. The whole of it.

Coming eventually, gradually, inexorably.

The ratio of debt to GDP is approaching 300% and still growing fast and without any relief in sight or anticipated...or expected. Or possible.

Comrade P

So you publish here you interact with Fenqing all the time when you are in the CCP and then later classify them as CCP yuppies ?

I believe we can now close that book the the views you publish ....there is no logical person in China that believes what the Fenqing group says ...we understand they are angry youths with too much energy and not focused on getting a real job. But they are there and let them be

I believe 99% of the Americans don't give a hoot what the Ku Klux Clan says or publish ... Because it is filled with ridiculous claims and vile hate

You need help mate if you go to China , profess to interact with Fenqing all the time and then return here to flame the Chinese on this forum.

Comrade P has just shot himself in the foot with a nuclear strike ....now we understand the hate, the name calling and all the skewed one way views

Sunday Brunch time ....@ Hyatt Singapore

Fenqing are worse than the worst right winger one could find in the United States. By far. No comparison.

Fenqing are the core and backbone drivers of the CCP ruling elite throughout the society and the country. Fenqing impact every event and occurrence with the standard government line. Fenqing are the militant arm of the absolutist doctrine that China is right and the world is wrong.

Not every fenqing readily accepts Marxism however because it is not Chinese. Marxism does not originate from any time or period of China's history or from any particular dynasty. Hence the nationalist and racist fenqing reject it as not Chinese enough...or as not Chinese period.

Downplaying or trying to dismiss this obvious and unmistakable driving force in the PRChina goes nowhere. It would be like this poster trying to deny there are lunatic rightwhingenuts on the loose in the USA. The very real rightwhinge and crackpot fringe has given the USA and the world Donald Trump and his promise of CCP trade wars, currency clashes, economic existentialism etc etc.

There are many Donald Trumps in the hierarchy of the CCP and there are many USA rightwingnut fenqing equivalents in the PRC who egg them on. In some instances, the CCP hierarchy and the fenqing are one and the same. It simply isn't reported as CCP always stays below the radar and behind its shroud of secrecy.

The people who speak most glowingly or favorably of the CCP, and who speak most consistently, strongly and most often in support of it and them, are the people who are involved in the big bucks. My two English language schools, one in Thailand and one in CCP China, are small bucks. I have virtually nothing to loose. The big bucks guys who've been involved in CCP for decades and have been most enriched by it are the most vocal and the most patronising of the CCP new dynasty of emperors in business suits and their corruption. The endemic and massive corruption.

Let me correct this for you: "The people who speak most moderately and reasonably of the CCP are the people who help create value and jobs for Chinese and Americans and world consumers, shareholders, investors and stakeholders and help build China into a responsible global partner."

Those big bucks guys you speak of may have blazed new trails, taken huge risks, been smarter, faster, stronger and more flexible than others and at the same time, may be good citizens and family men and care about their Chinese counterparts the same.

To quote Jerzy Kosinski through Melvin Douglas, "a good businessman is like a laborer in the garden. He works the flinty soil with his bare hands, waters it with the sweat of his brow, and creates a thing of value...for his family...and for the community."

So, let's lose this romantic liberal concept that all foreign businessmen who helped China get to this point are sitting in plush leather armchairs wearing silk suits and smoking Cohibas, sipping Louis XIII cognac in private dens stuffing envelopes of cash into CCP officials' pockets...though this does evoke certain memories. (Just kidding? )

One does not argue with the principles of what a good businessman does, in the USA.

The definition of a 'good businessman' in CCP or in say, Thailand is more than a bit different. This point applies to 'foreign devils' in the CCP and to fahlang bucks scrubbers in Thailand, to of course include elsewhere in the emerging economies.

When Americans gripe about losing jobs to the CCP China, it is the working Americans and their communities who are the aggrieved. Business and corporation owners and partners are the decision makers in relocating globally. It is they who benefit by the principles of the market and its relentless drive to maximise profit. It is they who sustain the CCP state-corporate beast and who give rise to the anti-trade and xenophobic wall building beast at home.

And let's recognise that when geostrategic factors begin to dominate the global landscape, as they do in the CCP's grandiose design to supplant USD as the global currency for example, investors of all kinds simply look at the color of one's money. Nothing more. This is a severe failure of character.

So let's just recognise and acknowledge the total picture.

This guy does not begrudge the next guy his own cigar and cognac. It's just that the next guy would be wise to attune himself to the real ideological and cultural intents, realities, purposes, goals of the elites who welcome his profits services.