naklang

I am puzzled by the growth rate of the money supply (m3) On a three month basis the growth rate has fallen from almost 19% to just 2.1%.

The growth rate in bank loans has ground to a halt and might even be negative.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/08/mor...raction-in.html

I was assuming that the Fed was just printing more money to throw at the failing banks and apparently, that is not the case.

There are titanic sized inflationary and deflationary forces vying with one another now. The energy based inflationary pressure and the deflationary credit collapse. I think it is pretty obvious to the fed and any other CB that there is simply no way to print themselves out of this one. The magnitude of the problem is simply stupefying. Therefore, I vote that deflation wins this round until the excesses are purged. I was in Shenzhen in Mar. '06 and again 2 months ago. The negative change in business climate is jaw dropping. Big trouble in little China. The Chinese govt. is finished allowing the Yuan to rise since they are fully aware that individual producers raising prices for their goods is going to cut demand further. Better make up the difference with the exchange rate. Chinese demographics along with the US point to a future deflationary trend no matter what the CB try to accomplish with money supply. Japan learned that lesson and continues to learn it.

http://worldblog.msnbc.msn.com/archive/200...19/1272286.aspx

Any speculation as to the effect on Eurozone with the recent Russian sabre rattling? One would think that as tensions mount, the financial elite will realize that when push comes to shove, the country with the biggest and baddest Navy gets the oil. Europe might find itself sputtering. It's in Russia's best interest to keep the oil price HIGH. Just a thought.

No, actually it is not in Russia's best interest to keep oil prices high, just as it is not in OPEC's best interest. Had oil prices remained in the $60-$70/bbl range then the worldwide public outcry would have been muted and isolated, instead it is a deafening chorus from all parts of the globe. I would liken it to the old story about boiling a frog. If you throw a frog into a boiling pot of water it will immediatly jump out, however if you place a frog into a pot of water and then slowly turn up the heat it will remain there until it is boiled alive. Because of the greed of OPEC, traders in the pits and hedge funds that helped to cause this speculative bubble, the public outcry has forced the hand of many governments (even reluctant ones like the U.S.) around the world to adress the energy problem, and in doing so these goverments will be putting hundreds of billions of dollars over the coming years into R&D for solar,wind,geothermal,hydrogen fuel cells,advanced battery systems and various synthetic and biofuels, not to mention the rapid expansion of nuclear power facilitiies. In less than a full generation, the internal combustion gasoline engine will be a thing of the past, so those nations that rely on oil production to support their economy had better invest those petrodollars very wisely (and many of the middle eastern soveriegn wealth funds have done just that by making substantial investments in the U.S. and Dollar denominated asests recently). Now back to where the dollar is headed to, it looks like $1.467 for the Euro, $1.86 for sterling, and just over 110 for the Yen as of the close on Friday(so much for all those wonderful cherry picked articles that have been posted here recently). Oil was able to make a late day come back and closed above $113 and gold continued its fall from grace to $788/ounce (who knows if gold continues to plummet at this pace it just might get back below $670/ounce before the end of August). I have had a good chuckle as I read some of the recent posts here, although it does seem to me that most are sour grapes, its too bad that some out there didn't short oil at $1.38 and gold at $980 or swap out their Euro and pound assets and into Dollar denominated assets as I have suggested for many months now. Now I'm off to hit a bucket of golf balls and enjoy another beautiful sunset in Sedona

The oil boom is directly responsible for Russia's re-emergence as a world power. Their political and financial elite certainly would not be happy to see $50 oil again. Their current regime is about "right now". All this govt funded R&D is nice, but it will take years just to cut through the politics, let alone actually begin reducing dependence on hydrocarbons. Its a potent, compact package not easily replaced.

By the way I don't expect that oil will go down to $50/bbl (I am not sure why you picked that number out of the hat?) in the next 6 months or so, oil will likely find a level in the $80-$90 range and settle in there. The russians and OPEC will be very happy if oil does indeed stabilize in that range

http://www.inflationdata.com/inflation/ima...rices_Chart.htm

$50 is pretty much the average inflation adjusted price over the last 60 years. Lets face it, the goo was in the $10/barrel range ten years ago. And the truth about China and its demographics/social forecasts are leading to the wheels falling off of the story of this unstoppable Asian growth machine. Add to this, the honeymoon bliss for the Euro is ending with the tide coming back in for the dollar. All of this is oil negative in a big way.

Any speculation as to the effect on Eurozone with the recent Russian sabre rattling? One would think that as tensions mount, the financial elite will realize that when push comes to shove, the country with the biggest and baddest Navy gets the oil. Europe might find itself sputtering. It's in Russia's best interest to keep the oil price HIGH. Just a thought.

No, actually it is not in Russia's best interest to keep oil prices high, just as it is not in OPEC's best interest. Had oil prices remained in the $60-$70/bbl range then the worldwide public outcry would have been muted and isolated, instead it is a deafening chorus from all parts of the globe. I would liken it to the old story about boiling a frog. If you throw a frog into a boiling pot of water it will immediatly jump out, however if you place a frog into a pot of water and then slowly turn up the heat it will remain there until it is boiled alive. Because of the greed of OPEC, traders in the pits and hedge funds that helped to cause this speculative bubble, the public outcry has forced the hand of many governments (even reluctant ones like the U.S.) around the world to adress the energy problem, and in doing so these goverments will be putting hundreds of billions of dollars over the coming years into R&D for solar,wind,geothermal,hydrogen fuel cells,advanced battery systems and various synthetic and biofuels, not to mention the rapid expansion of nuclear power facilitiies. In less than a full generation, the internal combustion gasoline engine will be a thing of the past, so those nations that rely on oil production to support their economy had better invest those petrodollars very wisely (and many of the middle eastern soveriegn wealth funds have done just that by making substantial investments in the U.S. and Dollar denominated asests recently). Now back to where the dollar is headed to, it looks like $1.467 for the Euro, $1.86 for sterling, and just over 110 for the Yen as of the close on Friday(so much for all those wonderful cherry picked articles that have been posted here recently). Oil was able to make a late day come back and closed above $113 and gold continued its fall from grace to $788/ounce (who knows if gold continues to plummet at this pace it just might get back below $670/ounce before the end of August). I have had a good chuckle as I read some of the recent posts here, although it does seem to me that most are sour grapes, its too bad that some out there didn't short oil at $1.38 and gold at $980 or swap out their Euro and pound assets and into Dollar denominated assets as I have suggested for many months now. Now I'm off to hit a bucket of golf balls and enjoy another beautiful sunset in Sedona

The oil boom is directly responsible for Russia's re-emergence as a world power. Their political and financial elite certainly would not be happy to see $50 oil again. Their current regime is about "right now". All this govt funded R&D is nice, but it will take years just to cut through the politics, let alone actually begin reducing dependence on hydrocarbons. Its a potent, compact package not easily replaced.

The world just became quite a bit more dangerous, particularly to Europe. Dollar rally/Sterling decline is combination of reversals, one of which is a flight to "safety". At the end of the day, firepower has to do the talking. Just the way the world has always been unfortunately.

And this load of carp has what to do with the price of beef?

You'll find out soon enough.

The world just became quite a bit more dangerous, particularly to Europe. Dollar rally/Sterling decline is combination of reversals, one of which is a flight to "safety". At the end of the day, firepower has to do the talking. Just the way the world has always been unfortunately.

Any speculation as to the effect on Eurozone with the recent Russian sabre rattling? One would think that as tensions mount, the financial elite will realize that when push comes to shove, the country with the biggest and baddest Navy gets the oil. Europe might find itself sputtering. It's in Russia's best interest to keep the oil price HIGH. Just a thought.

If you do catch a serious bacterial or viral based disease like this you are best to take regular amounts of Colloidal Silver. It is the only product that I am aware of that has the ability to disable bacteria, fungus and virus by disabling their respiratory cell membrane - in effect it works by suffocating harmful microbes - without causing any harmful side-effects to the person drinking it. This is in stark contrast to pharmaceutical anti-biotics which try to kill bacteria by poisoning it, and often end up poisoning the patient instead!

I have found a good source of colloidal silver in Thailand here: www.colloidalsilverasia.com

FS

Good for you if you want to turn blue. LOL!

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,317564,00.html

I don't know if this is what I caught in April, but I was hospitalized for 8 days with similar symptoms. Both my legs had some kind of bacteria, were swollen and it was in my bloodstream. They didn't know what it was and I was on intravenous antibiotics for 8 days. It was some very stung stuff called vancomician.

I had some blisters on my feet and small cuts on my legs. We visited the Elephant Nature Park in Chaing Mai where we bathed the elephants in the local river. It was a great experience and I wanted to ignore the connection of the park and what happened to me. I have videos of the Elephant Dung floating in the river next to one of the elephants I was bathing. I'm sure there was urine in the water too.

The next morning I was cold and not feeling very good. By the afternoon I had a temp of almost 104 and the next day the hotel doctor said I needed to get to a hospital for further care. I flew to Bangkok that afternoon and staff at Bumrungrad met us at the airport.

Be warned about this. It can be some bad stuff if this is what I caught.

You were very lucky. If they had you on a Vancomycin drip, it was a serious blood infection. All travel clinics warn to stay out of fresh water in SE-Asia even without open wounds. To get in with them?...............crazy!. Not worth it.

Amazing how trying to be helpful and answering the OPs question and then adding a simple BTW comment leads to all this. Actually, not amazing, just typically ThaiVisa......

No offense intended, I was just suggesting that other options to the age old system would be welcome and could be advantageous to both sides. Also, was not aware in 2008 that most shops have no credit card capability.

Perhaps you need more first hand experience with the rental shops in Chiang Mai then.

More like "any" experience. Glad to have found out prior to avoid any surprises. Assumed it would be like any other past vehicle rental in the kingdom (credit card).

Amazing how trying to be helpful and answering the OPs question and then adding a simple BTW comment leads to all this. Actually, not amazing, just typically ThaiVisa......

No offense intended, I was just suggesting that other options to the age old system would be welcome and could be advantageous to both sides. Also, was not aware in 2008 that most shops have no credit card capability.

Every vehicle I have ever rented in the world has been done so with my credit card as security. This leaving your passport thing is a joke and should only be needed for those with NO Credit. If they want to run my card as security, fine. If they want to hold my American drivers license, fine. But they are not getting my passport. I plan to rent a bike in CM soon and will pay the 3 weeks in advance. That should be enough to convince that I am not some low-life bike snatcher.

I understand the rental shops' need to guarantee return of the rental, but renters with other, more secure means of deposit should not be required to surrender their passports. It's just an out-dated practice that needs to change.

There has been and continues to be the realization that the major tourist locales in Thailand are pretty much "has-been" locations. Few if any retain the original charm that made them popular. The TAT will go on about airlines, exchange rates, and political tension etc, but the fact is that the fun factor and value is largely gone. The world has moved on (except for the Russians/East Europeans who are just "discovering" LOS). Frankly, an American can have more fun, for the same cost in Hawaii (including female companionship) when you add it all up. And with a whole lot less travel time, hassle, scams, and filth.

From what I hear, 50% of the price of European fuel is tax compared to about 15% in USA. It explains much of the large gap in unit cost since the $$$/bbl is globally priced. Refinery/transport costs vary, but the big hitter remains the taxes. European social/health & human services, employment laws are vastly different than the USA's privatized scenario.

In contrast and at mind boggling cost, USA's leaders and some allies feel we must maintain a vast military presence to try and maintain whatever "order" they feel is most appropriate (like Britain, France, Spain of centuries past). My opinion is that while oil demand is certainly rising briskly (China, India etc), the main factor for the rise in price is the decline of the dollar. Simple as that. And the dollar is getting killed because there is a trillion+ dollar bill coming due for the effort in Iraq to bring that country online as a stable supply of petroleum.

So, even though the world isn't really paying directly/proportionately in blood, money, and toil over there, the world is getting the bill right alongside Americans through the devalued dollar (war debt). In the old days, when the king ran out of gold, the troops came home. Now we can just print IOU's and don't really ever have to pay it back because our military street enforcers say so. If China, our biggest creditor decides he wants his money back + interest, well........thats going to be quite a show.

But many sources say in less than 10 years, Saudi Arabia will be in marked output decline and Iraq remains relatively "untapped" due to decades of sanctions/strife etc. In my opinion, not a coincidence. But what some fail to recognize is that the effort there is not just so greedy, wasteful Americans can gobble up all the oil. It is oil that will be made available to the world market, not the USA's private reserve. So, it's in the world's best interest that the effort there succeed especially given the enormous human and financial cost thus far.

I knew I'd seen that guy before. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=adgbsLr3ESY...feature=related

The Imperial IPA here http://www.bbaybrewery.com/beer.php is the finest liquid refreshment I have found anywhere in the world. Truly sublime and rare, since certainly NOT found in bottles. Will miss it badly if I ever make the move away to LOS.

Looks like the North East is an archaeologists and meditators paradise. Now what can it offer the other 99.5% of tourists? A barren landscape and somtam.

You've never been here then.

Please spread that news around as many people as possible, and stay away.

as a tourist spot, you would have to admit, Isaan like most parts of the world is pretty cr&p.

I'd probably be one of the first to admit that Steve, once you have seen Khao Phanom Rung and visited some rubble that may have been a Hindu temple at some time (none of which have anything to do with Thailand as this used to be part of Cambodia anyway) there is pretty much nothing else to see here, if you don't live here.

I'd like it to stay that way for as long as possible.

Getting the transient visitors who come for two weeks a year to see how the house is coming along is bad enough .... coaches of tourists who haven't even got the most thinly veiled connection to the region....... no thank you.

Exactly. Please spread the word that there is absolutely nothing to see or do in Isaan. A horrible dry, dusty hole. Whatever you do, DON'T COME TO ISAAN!!

I don't fly halfway across the earth so I can mingle with hordes of tourists. I no longer even stay in Bangkok for the night. Immediately connect to the North. Leave the south to the unwashed and drunken masses. Seen it, done it, sick of the sight of it. Has anyone been to Samui lately? <deleted> is wrong with that picture these days? Used to be nice 10 years ago. Now that the South is thoroughly defiled, TAT is trying to trash what little is left that is worth visiting.

Not to hijack the thread, but I am in a similar situation as the OP at 40 y.o. I have been contemplating the move over for several years. If I was to liquidate now, I would have about $600,000 in principle to generate income. Social security is so far out I don't even expect to get it even though I now have the credits to qualify at 62 y.o. Just don't feel like paying into a system that will never pay out. Kinda like paying an insurance company that has no intent to honor the policy. So I don't factor it into the equation at all.

I have based income conservatively at 4.5% return and a decline of the dollar to 25 over the next five years and flatten out from there. Even so, working each additional year in the US at my current savings rate and return only increases my potential monthly income by about 2800BHT/mo.

BUT the extra principle and the cushion is provides if things go pear shaped in LOS is the biggie. Giving up the earning potential of the West is the major financial hit one takes to pack it in. Unless or course you are one of the lucky ones that can replicate top-line earnings, not just investment income in LOS. So, I for one, really don't see myself giving up a career just yet. At least not until there is an even $1,000,000 ready to go to work. But then again, I could get hit by a bus tomorrow. Play now and takes your chances, or play later and maybe never get the chance? Decisions, decisions.

Or continue to earn at home and play in LOS a few times/year until it all gets old anyway and you find someplace better? Maybe the best option of all.

Not bashing, just illustrating that when all else fails, better start kicking ass and taking names. All that expensive killin' hardware needs to start paying oil dividends. Us 'merkins be gettin' mighty sore giving up our Budweiser money to fill up the Dodge Powerwagon. Gotta love the combat "camo" shoes on the trailer 'ho. LOL!

http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http:/...=image&cd=3

Even if the world decided to cut off servicing US debt and oil flow, the military will still be able to go break some kneecaps to convince them to "get their mind right". The empire in it's last throes is certain to deal out some mighty damage to those that cross it. We suck at civil/insurgent conflicts, but we can level cities and standing armies quite efficiently. If you can't produce, service, or swindle your way to prosperity any longer, start taking it by force. The plans are being laid to do just that and its going to be uggggggglyy.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-mili...,1,243958.story

internally I assume means she swallowed bags of heroin and produced means took a dump to reveal what was going on inside.

maybe?

or................

Yeah, customs say it's pretty amazing how much baggage can be concealed there. Certainly so after a few sprogs. And to think people inject that into their veins??? Better cook it REAL good just in case the packages leak. She's probably been doing this for a while and got ratted out by a former associate.

No need to argue the point further as it's his decision. He asked for alternatives and he got some. If his doc says it's OK to try the Tramadol and it works for him, great. He feels better and probably cuts his med costs by half compared to the generic effexor. Everybody wins..........except the drug companies.

Try the 100mg Tramadol instead, just dont take more than that at a time or go over 400mg a day. And NEVER mix it with any other SSRI as it can give you serotonin syndrome (possibly fatal). The venlafaxine molecule is basically an amped up version of Tramadol to make it more potent, provide patent protection, and more money. Be careful of Effexor as coming off of that too quick can be big trouble (seizures and brain zaps). Taper very slow if you ever need to come off of it.

Tramadol is an opiate., used for relief of pain. Like other opiates it has a sedative effect and not safe to take with alcohol or to drive.

It is true that tramadol also decreases reuoptake of serotonon and norepinephrine but that does not make it equivalent to venlafaxine. Venlafaxine inhibits reuotake of serotonin, norepinephrine and dopamine, and unlike tramadol does not bind to opiate receptors,hence does not have the same deprerssive effect on the central nervous system.

Effexor (both plain and extended release) is available in Thailand. Don't mess about with tramadol in its place.

I would suggest that it is very unsafe to consume alcohol while taking Effexor as well. Alcohol's effect on the brain combined with the profound inhibition of neurotransmitter uptake by the Effexor is playing Russian Roulette with your sanity.

The dopamine pathway is the precise reason why Effexor is wreaking havok around the world. There are a few other well known substances that directly act on dopamine. Those might just be methamphetamine and cocaine. And no credible authority is suggesting those "dead ends" be used to treat depressive states. Just because Effexor is being pushed by big pharma doesn't make it any less destructive.

Try the 100mg Tramadol instead, just dont take more than that at a time or go over 400mg a day. And NEVER mix it with any other SSRI as it can give you serotonin syndrome (possibly fatal). The venlafaxine molecule is basically an amped up version of Tramadol to make it more potent, provide patent protection, and more money. Be careful of Effexor as coming off of that too quick can be big trouble (seizures and brain zaps). Taper very slow if you ever need to come off of it.

Obviously you never studied clinical pharmacology. Effexor has not been proven to cause seizures in healthy adults, seizure activity is only seen in heavy alcohol abusers in any statistically significant amount, the most common thing to watch out for is increased depression after the drug is discontinued, that is why ALL classes of anti-depressants are tapered off over 2 weeks.

seykota please ignore the above post, as Sheryl said Tramadol is a synthetic opioid pain medication. Using it would increase depressive episodes. Not to mention that it would be totally inappropriate.

Also I didn't word my earlier post well, generic Effexor is available as of Aug 2006. The XR [extended release] version is still under patent.

Any change in psychotropic medications should be taken deadly serious and under the supervision of a psychiatrist.

Take care,

GunnyD

I have yet to hear of anyone taking Tramadol becoming more depressed. In fact, to the contrary.

http://opioids.com/tramadol/ultramantidep.html

And the horror stories about Effexor are rampant all over the net. Thousands of people have been irreversibly harmed by it. Of course any med change should be supervised by a physician, that is a given. Just alerting the OP to the molecular similarity and options available.

Can't he do things the Thai way and get the documents "fixed" with a little bribe. Then he could price it for a quick sale, pocket the loot, and get the heck out of town. The reverse has been done to farang many a time.

I have been taking Effexor for several years and recently read a topic on thai visa about the relatively easy availability of generic versions of the major anti-depressants in Bangkok.

However, I have inquired at numerous pharmacies in the Silom area and Wong Wian Yai (Klong San) area and have been informed that they only sell the "name" brands. Can anyone tell me the location of a pharmacy that sells Venlafaxine, via pm if you prefer.

Thanks

seykota

Try the 100mg Tramadol instead, just dont take more than that at a time or go over 400mg a day. And NEVER mix it with any other SSRI as it can give you serotonin syndrome (possibly fatal). The venlafaxine molecule is basically an amped up version of Tramadol to make it more potent, provide patent protection, and more money. Be careful of Effexor as coming off of that too quick can be big trouble (seizures and brain zaps). Taper very slow if you ever need to come off of it.