thaistocks

Regarding Thai IPO's and the incomplete praise they acclaim. A key reason most all Thai IPO's do well on the first few trading days is in good part because Thai speculators' & day-traders' pounce on them,  at first. This is not indicative of a successful IPO. Why does the Thai brokerage community -or the SET- not tabulate (like elsewhere) how IPO's stock prices perform say 3, 6, or 12 months later.  As this is the real gauge and test on how successful they are post listing, in retrospect, over time. 

This way all investors can evaluate with transparency how Thai IPO's fared,  well past just the first few speculative days. Also there should be a list the various broker/financial advisor which brought them public (IPO.). As is now: Thai IPO's success is really a who knows? Because to my knowledge, no long term follow-up tabulations on performance are published anywhere? Why not?

We are just now globally entering the darkest period of this CV19 health fiasco. As over the next few weeks-or say 2 months both in the US and EU new cases will/keep sky rocketing (but death % rates have stabilized).  Yet, its a matter of weeks until a vaccine or a cure or likely both, come on stream. This will change the sentiment for the better because even if its not widely available to say until Q2 2021, it will signal the light at the end of the tunnel and things here and elsewhere will get less paranoid.

On 10/19/2020 at 7:47 PM, Ketyo said:

So many people want to be victims in this "me too" world.

 

What about all the people who were stranded in Thailand when the lockdown started? They were desperate to get back to their home countries but were stranded. Headlines were full of stories about people stranded in Thailand and Cambodia and New Zealand and .....and their governments weren't laying on flights to get them home. So governments laid on flights to get their stranded citizens back home.

 

And now the headlines are full of people stranded at home who cant get back to Thailand.

 

Are they the same people? Some people want to be victims all their lives.

The above while a generalization is so true.  I too can remember so many expat scary nellies which could hardly wait to get out of Thailand, many foreign embassies had to organize private charter planes and book reservations -and in part sponsor this "get them home" by all means. Presently, so many can't wait to get back here and complain if they can't, just now.  The cards turned on them, it was/is safe to stay here and far more health risky to those whom went back home.  

Also consider the expat community which spend money here...this money circulates via the multiplier effect as is know in economics. So a Bill Baht spent, snowballs in fact many times over.

Tow doctors come out of the operating room. The mother of the patient anxiously asks, "how did it go?"  The doctors' answer "well, the operation was successful but the patient died". 

Thailand got to 0 Covit19, but just about devastated its entire economy and tourist sector has gone to 0.   In economics 101 its always a trade off, "guns vs. butter".  Yes, you can eliminate something or create something or build something etc.. but the question is always at what cost!  That's what Thailand did, it got to 0 infections but all just about killed its economy, for now... while putting many millions out of work and soo much other misery, mostly for the poor or average citizens.

11 minutes ago, polpott said:

The West still offers children a far better education than Thailand does.

True, in general, but not to forget its much up to the parents as well!  Many kids in the West are still smoking/partiying -and wild and disrespectful to the elderly...ignore parents. Free and loose with all that contains, good and much bad. Mostly the Western state is all but bankrupt, due to as mentioned the entitlement birth right believe. Many boys in the West are checking out (totally confirmed by the numbers) as they believe there are increasingly less opportunities, vs. the minorities.  One has to balance it all, not just deviate on what one believe is important (with our own western biases.).

1 minute ago, polpott said:

Just imagine how much she could have achieved had she been educated in a Western country.

Well, You have exactly the stigma, in reverse, so many Thai's here have. The west has mostly peaked along with all the entitlements which is bankrupting the state. Just look at the mess in the US at present, first wanting the wall..now being all but walled in.  A sense of family, taking care of the elders etc..all but too often missing.

4 minutes ago, EricTh said:

When the vaccine comes, this plan is going to change again. 

The problem is when? and even when it comes, how will they scale it up to vaccinate a billion people out of 8 bill., worldwide.  First they will allocate those to health care workers, then to some privileged like Govt. elites. It will take a long time to filter down to the common traveler. And in the meantime there is a risk of something else going wrong, like a backlash. Not least, many will then not want to take the vaccine for legitimate or not, fears. Its a nightmare.

Double CV19 test, plus 14 days quarantine -and on top you must in advance specify where you will rent/stay the whole time?  Leaving no freedom to move around? Its too draconian and sadly will be passed up by most all.

This is an alarmist headline, typical of mainstream media hype. The Thai economy came to a standstill, yes just now, but as soon as things are contained it will bounce back. Its just a snapshot of what is at this very moment in time -and does not account for how quickly it will likely bounce back. The Thai SET is already projecting this, having rallied back 20% off its low point in March. That of course is not mentioned. Stock markets are always forward looking.

At least its not a bird flew which can spread and travel, like its wings. China has seemed very responsible to date on this it seems....and the Thai Baht is dropping at last -which is a blessing in disguise.

Many expats wonder why among all the political turmoil the Thai Baht has not weakened more of late? This after being a relative strong currency a year ago.

Far too many negative comments here by expats which don't know what they are talking about. The SET index just about doubled over the past 5 years and many stocks have done much better then that. Even this year has been ok with the Thai benchmark index flirting back up to near 1400 vs. 1298 on Jan 3 2014, (up7%) all despite all the bad politics since.

Thailand is the absolute leader in the region on green energy as it has one of the highest electricity rates in all of SE Asia (only Cambodia's is higher). There are a number of great companies here which are near exploding in earnings going forward due to the boom in solar and wind energy. EGAT gives attractive adder rates for such green energy and the country has a mandate to produce some 20% of all electricity, green, by year 2020. Hence this is a non-cyclical industry which does not have any effect on politics, tourism or exports! Yet, few Thai brokers cover this growth sector as the companies are too small for most institutions (their big clients) so they are off their radar screen, at their peril.

That Forbes article is not as great as some claim to think here.. Some of its graphs are just dated...it does not mention the positives, like how the Thai minimum wage has increased this year, how low inflation is and how under-leveraged the rest of Thailand is, past the consumer. It just slams the bubble word some 15 times and many of the comments after that article are even more interesting, like all growing economies are subject to a bubble sooner or later but the timing is what is critical, or you stay behind in 1-2% US Gov. bonds, which by definition is a loss, as they don't keep up with inflation. Most people with low or little education in a subject like to be super negative, its so much the vogue du jour now, to their peril.

But this is a & exaggerated if not outright nonsense news headline, I mean where are these global investors going to instead? The indebted no growth West, at similar valuation matrixes but then with very little or no dividends? Or washed out gold? Or 0-1% returns on US$, itself a currency with a questionable future. Thai listed companies overall have very little debt and clean balance sheets. Their earnings growth rates are double it not triple those of the developed countries and corporate income taxes here have just been cut 1/3 over the past 2 years. So profit margins are on the up, overall.

Political squabbling and commotion is the norm here for decades and does not affect much or for long, as is shown in the long past. The just past events if anything are positive as they show the masses won't put up with pardon's for past ill behavior. Ha its a buying opportunity, watch and see and learn.

The problem with all such funds is their size. They are simply too big to buy the "real Thailand". Hence many of the best/most undervalued picks here are off their radar screens.

Most interesting undervalued stocks on the SET are smaller, high growth/high dividends picks. But no fund can buy them easily as they only trade in the millions of Baht per day, not millions US$ or Pounds. Its in these funds interest to talk up the low illiquidity of such value stocks, but we as individual investors dont' have millions to invest and so don't have their restrictions.

The problem with all such funds is their size. They are simply too big to buy the "real Thailand". Hence many of the best/most undervalued picks here are off their radar screens.

Most interesting undervalued stocks on the SET are smaller, high growth/high dividends picks. But no fund can buy them easily as they only trade in the millions of Baht per day, not millions US$ or Pounds. Its in these funds interest to talk up the low illiquidity of such value stocks, but we as individual investors dont' have millions to invest and so don't have their restrictions.

The problem with all such funds is their size. They are simply too big to buy the "real Thailand". Hence many of the best/most undervalued picks here are off their radar screens.

Most interesting undervalued stocks on the SET are smaller, high growth/high dividends picks. But no fund can buy them easily as they only trade in the millions of Baht per day, not millions US$ or Pounds. Its in these funds interest to talk up the low illiquidity of such value stocks, but we as individual investors dont' have millions to invest and so don't have their restrictions.

We have been investing in Thai stocks for over 20 years. The track record is as good as it is long. Surely there are ups and downs.

The problem here is most brokers want clients to just day trade (most often a loosing proposition in the long run). These Wealth advisors in Thailand bad mouth the SET because they want you to buy their commission loaded funds or insurance scams.

And these noueau "fee only advisors" just pump so called ETF funds, which invest in the index. They know nothing about security selection.

Those of us here whom understand all these traps have grasped that there are solid companies with high growth rates and dividends which have for years already produced superior returns. The problem is you will never read about them by the newsmedia, the brokers or these wealth advisors.

Is there anybody in Thailand who is long and deep expert on Post Nuke Publishing? I sure could use some help. drop me a note.

OK, whatever..., hurray to the "home of the brave and free". Is it?

The US economy is also now heading/leading the world with a home cooked recession, soley due to their irresponsible housing boom/bust. Yet, another bust. The 4th in the past few years, and all coming out of the US. As the US economy slows down to recessionary levels, the price of Oil will likely drop as well. This will be very good for corporate Thailand. Many growing Thai companies here trade at half or less the p/e ratio then in the US, pay 3 times the dividends as compared to the US, and have 3-4 times the expected earnings growth rate then the US. Thailand is benefiting from the continued boom in the north by China and in the West by India.

AS for low regulations in the US, nonsense..that place is about as regulated and taxed as they come. For example in the US only foreign investors don't pay taxes on stock gains, go figure that.

And don't forget some of the largest financial scandals have also originated there in the past few years. The biggest bankcruptie in history and the biggest corporate bond default in history all orginiate from the US! The continued falling US currency is another embarasement, who wants to invest in a dropping currency on top of a dropping stock market?

I can continue but will stop here, as I got work to do. Investment work that is, and its not in the US.

But at some point later in 2008, as home prices there collapse even more..yes at some point a US residence might be a good grab from one of the millions of bailing out overstretched US consumers, holding the bag.

To open an account you just go with your passport to a local broker, yes Kim Eng is OK and the largest around, but there are many and most all are reputable. It pays to have a bank account in place so you can have your dividends deposited.

A broker in Thailand may not endorse dividend checks, only banks can do this. The key with the broker is to not have yourself talked into a trading account, as trading is always a speculative activity.

If you wire the funds from abroad, make sure you get exact wire instructions from your broker --and then wire to the broker directly. Then you are guaranteed capital repatriation, everytime anywhere. Beware on listening to often nonsense taking by negative foreigners in bars or beaches on this subject, most don't know what they are rambling.

Fact is: foreigners can own Thai shares outright.

Fact is: if done properly you can send your funds back overseas anytime, as long as its in your own name. Yes, including any profits, all tax free.

Fact is: Thai shares trade at a near 30% price discount to other exchanges in the region (not even including Japan) and so represent some of the best investment bargains around.

Its all about buying cheap and selling expensive, select Thai stocks are currently on the bottom valuation, historically. And no, you don't need a large initial amount..most brokers will let you start with a few hundred thousand Baht.