thaistocks

Regarding Thai IPO's and the incomplete praise they acclaim. A key reason most all Thai IPO's do well on the first few trading days is in good part because Thai speculators' & day-traders' pounce on them,  at first. This is not indicative of a successful IPO. Why does the Thai brokerage community -or the SET- not tabulate (like elsewhere) how IPO's stock prices perform say 3, 6, or 12 months later.  As this is the real gauge and test on how successful they are post listing, in retrospect, over time. 

This way all investors can evaluate with transparency how Thai IPO's fared,  well past just the first few speculative days. Also there should be a list the various broker/financial advisor which brought them public (IPO.). As is now: Thai IPO's success is really a who knows? Because to my knowledge, no long term follow-up tabulations on performance are published anywhere? Why not?

We are just now globally entering the darkest period of this CV19 health fiasco. As over the next few weeks-or say 2 months both in the US and EU new cases will/keep sky rocketing (but death % rates have stabilized).  Yet, its a matter of weeks until a vaccine or a cure or likely both, come on stream. This will change the sentiment for the better because even if its not widely available to say until Q2 2021, it will signal the light at the end of the tunnel and things here and elsewhere will get less paranoid.

On 10/19/2020 at 7:47 PM, Ketyo said:

So many people want to be victims in this "me too" world.

 

What about all the people who were stranded in Thailand when the lockdown started? They were desperate to get back to their home countries but were stranded. Headlines were full of stories about people stranded in Thailand and Cambodia and New Zealand and .....and their governments weren't laying on flights to get them home. So governments laid on flights to get their stranded citizens back home.

 

And now the headlines are full of people stranded at home who cant get back to Thailand.

 

Are they the same people? Some people want to be victims all their lives.

The above while a generalization is so true.  I too can remember so many expat scary nellies which could hardly wait to get out of Thailand, many foreign embassies had to organize private charter planes and book reservations -and in part sponsor this "get them home" by all means. Presently, so many can't wait to get back here and complain if they can't, just now.  The cards turned on them, it was/is safe to stay here and far more health risky to those whom went back home.  

Also consider the expat community which spend money here...this money circulates via the multiplier effect as is know in economics. So a Bill Baht spent, snowballs in fact many times over.

Tow doctors come out of the operating room. The mother of the patient anxiously asks, "how did it go?"  The doctors' answer "well, the operation was successful but the patient died". 

Thailand got to 0 Covit19, but just about devastated its entire economy and tourist sector has gone to 0.   In economics 101 its always a trade off, "guns vs. butter".  Yes, you can eliminate something or create something or build something etc.. but the question is always at what cost!  That's what Thailand did, it got to 0 infections but all just about killed its economy, for now... while putting many millions out of work and soo much other misery, mostly for the poor or average citizens.

11 minutes ago, polpott said:

The West still offers children a far better education than Thailand does.

True, in general, but not to forget its much up to the parents as well!  Many kids in the West are still smoking/partiying -and wild and disrespectful to the elderly...ignore parents. Free and loose with all that contains, good and much bad. Mostly the Western state is all but bankrupt, due to as mentioned the entitlement birth right believe. Many boys in the West are checking out (totally confirmed by the numbers) as they believe there are increasingly less opportunities, vs. the minorities.  One has to balance it all, not just deviate on what one believe is important (with our own western biases.).

1 minute ago, polpott said:

Just imagine how much she could have achieved had she been educated in a Western country.

Well, You have exactly the stigma, in reverse, so many Thai's here have. The west has mostly peaked along with all the entitlements which is bankrupting the state. Just look at the mess in the US at present, first wanting the wall..now being all but walled in.  A sense of family, taking care of the elders etc..all but too often missing.

4 minutes ago, EricTh said:

When the vaccine comes, this plan is going to change again. 

The problem is when? and even when it comes, how will they scale it up to vaccinate a billion people out of 8 bill., worldwide.  First they will allocate those to health care workers, then to some privileged like Govt. elites. It will take a long time to filter down to the common traveler. And in the meantime there is a risk of something else going wrong, like a backlash. Not least, many will then not want to take the vaccine for legitimate or not, fears. Its a nightmare.

Double CV19 test, plus 14 days quarantine -and on top you must in advance specify where you will rent/stay the whole time?  Leaving no freedom to move around? Its too draconian and sadly will be passed up by most all.

This is an alarmist headline, typical of mainstream media hype. The Thai economy came to a standstill, yes just now, but as soon as things are contained it will bounce back. Its just a snapshot of what is at this very moment in time -and does not account for how quickly it will likely bounce back. The Thai SET is already projecting this, having rallied back 20% off its low point in March. That of course is not mentioned. Stock markets are always forward looking.

At least its not a bird flew which can spread and travel, like its wings. China has seemed very responsible to date on this it seems....and the Thai Baht is dropping at last -which is a blessing in disguise.

12 minutes ago, Airalee said:

Yes, no one knows where the baht will go.  But you are using faulty logic  using hindsight as justification of a good investment.  You know...past returns and all that.

Not making future predictions here -at this venue.  I just made the point that even while the doomsayers acclaim a property glut in Phuket and then deduce/infer many endure loosing investments;  just tamed that down by showing the other benefit -nobody brought up.  From an expat view point its always about total returns, so obviously the currency change counts.  Sugar Palm Condo is right adjacent to Phuket's biggest and long expanding park & ponds. Its installed 100 outdoor high quality excercise equipment. Go take a look,  Its the only building with direct-secure access to this grand park, while minutes away from town.   A big pool make up nearly half of the building plot (3rd floor)

Only if you assume, as soo many expats wrongly have in the recent and long past, that the Baht is peaked and will now only go one way, down.  That thinking was wrong for over a decade...and while some average properties in Phuket are in a glut and its always buyer beware, the Baht currency as Bloomberg writes has been among the strongest in the world.  Regarding a comment a while back that most agree there is a Phuket property glut (and so not a wise investment), beware its an old investor reality: when it comes to investing, most are usually wrong. 

Point being, any property losses here was perhaps substantially reduced by the Baht appreciation, the lack of annual prop. taxes and still decent rental income due to many deducing like  poster Patong2.

Patong2 You seem to only have focused on Patong, which is in a world of its own. As pointed out in prev. post Sugar Palm Condo. example, right on the park and not on the beach has increased some 50% since opening besides the Baht vs. most other FX currencies appreciations. Perhaps you did not broaden your looking?   Even Shop-houses, ha  yet so flagged in horror 10-20 years ago, yet in many locations, notably Phuket town, have appreciated considerably.   But off your radar screen?  And no annual property taxes.  And contrary to in the US, here it did not collapse during the N. Atlantic induced global financial crisis.

You likely know next to nothing about the Thai share market...its human that "what we don't know we inherently don't like" (especially when it comes to ones' savings).  As a US based person you say, you likely also have the additional headache & audit trigger back home as to US taxes and complicated filings etc..which have nothing to do with merits on Thai property investing.   BTW, a strength or weakness of a currency where one invests is of paramount important metric to foreign investors and related to this discussion as a property glut does imply a financial risk and of loss (its the core)  and examples where given here on a property bought and sold for less, i.e. losses... implying a glut.

Agreed, currency appreciation is a real part of total (foreign to Thai) investor returns.  

Realize, most all expats go around bad mouthing the SET, to their own peril along with their no real understanding.  Its true its a wild (SET) market with plenty of speculators & manipulators, many inept brokers and so difficult to get valuable research & unbiased added value insights. Combine this with the ferang (felang) constant negativity and you got a perfect case made to justify in staying away.  Hence all that galore property investment, yes resulting in some cases an oversupply!   But like so many things in life,  this (SET negativity) is too one sighted often confusing the SET with the investor strategy...as there are surely some good companies, paying double or triple dividends compared to bank interest...and if you take a longer term view and can tolerate some ups and downs (another thing they don't teach) over time and with proper diversification you can generate superior returns...which is so key to keep up with inflation and create new wealth, which cash or savings in the banks just don't.  This has been long proven without any doubt, but don't expect to get advantages on that reading the local newspapers or listening to uninformed, non-professional nay sayers.  To be clear I am no way advocating this in any biased way, as I don't offer any subscriptions / memberships and so cannot/do not, benefit. Further, I could care less if anyone SET invests or not....just sharing some insights in good faith here.  It should also be stated that recently only largest cap stocks have moved on the SET, with most all smaller and mid cap stocks stuck in a groove.  Big cap Thai stocks are now as we call it "a crowded trade" ( i.e. over chased) and in time smaller/mid cap stocks will re-emerge.

With near 30 years broad investor experience and in Phuket, I can say: Agreed with your conclusions Mysterion

, except one should add any sort of oversupply regarding average non-Wow properties in Phuket, these investors should part blame themselves in over-favoring property/real estate vs. other saving alternatives. And surely so, some got caught in a bind which also means there are likely some properties on the market here which are "bargains which go begging".

Right on Peterw42  -while chosing to ignore how the Thai Baht appreciated 15-20% overall, and more vs. AU$.  Also, they had for full great use in this time. Further, they chose not to tone down the big property purchase with a balance, say invest in a SET fund, which appreciated nicely over past few years, in Baht and in ones' full foreign name.

Some good posts here, yet the few usual negative and/or wrong understanding.  People the world over which miss out on increasing assets almost always later find reasons why they did the right thing so to justify. For sure more then a few Phuket properties are to say the least stale & not moving as there does appear to be an oversupply of such. 

Yet, Phuket is far more then just a "holiday destination", retirees keep coming in droves and many have money. Not least because of the low/no tax base, excellent climate/food besides health care & lower cost of living. Surely people advanced in age (above 50, is the official retirement age here) often have more money/capital then younger folks.  What nobody addresses is the oversupply being because soo many people know nothing about different investments alternatives, except buying/building a nice house/condo.  Call it a real market inefficiency, because it results in over-bidding on an asset class, which in time by definition does results in a quasi glut.  Economist called this a "savings intermediary mis-allocation of resources".   In capitalistic societies its assumed owners of capital will just about always make rational decisions based on what is a best investment, where of course quality of life also commands is a big factor.  Phuket went rather amiss on this, as many expats/retirees/investors bid up -and build up and owned up- only on property as they have no clue about financial asset investment alternatives.  10 to 20 years later these skewed decisions resulted in an overbuilt property situation on average dwellings. 

Realize, well beyond volatile stocks there are diversified property and infrastructure funds which pay Q. interest, at an annual rate of 6-7.5%, besides have lower withholding Thai taxes then the 1-2% interest paid by Thai banks. These can be legally owned by foreigners, can be divided by selling off or buying more in small amounts (can't do that with property) are private and in a currency which has appreciated.  To those which know nothing about it, as they rightly claim, there are ways to become savvy but you have to get beyond assuming we all "got the birthright to free information on the internet".

Here is a better way to re-state what I intended to:

Don't blame Phuket or Thailand. [Regarding Phuket Property Glut]. Expats have only themselves to reflect on if they are locked in (Phuket) "me too" property which is difficult to sell.  As for years too many just kept building and buying housing & real estate at their own peril, while avoided all kinds of financial assets despite in the past ten years doing overall well...besides have liquidity and divisibility!  [I am here not addressing the legality of ownership, as most all are legal like condo's and 30 year registered leases -but want to restate the fact how most people/expats are financial assets illiterate]. These so created the glut by over exiting then bidding, overbuilding by over-valuing in their capital, only property vs. well performing financial assets over say past 10 years.  But even if they bail-out (or, alternatively just enjoy it longer) below what they paid some years ago, the Thai Baht has been among the world strongest most stable currencies...and unlike in most Western countries there were no annual property taxes levied while still relatively good rental income options.  Compare this to Australia where its high priced property is definitely peaking in value at present (and a real risk this down move will only accelerate) even while on top the AU$ has lost over 25% vs. Thai Baht, in just the past 4 years.

Don't blame Phuket or Thailand. Expats have only themselves to blame if they are stuck in (Phuket) "me too" property which is often now unsellable.  As for years they just kept building and buying real estate at their own peril, while avoided all kinds of financial assets which in the past ten years have overall done soo well...besides have liquidity and divisibility!  Its these people which created the glut by overbidding, overbuilding and over-valuing only property.  But even if they bail-out below what they paid some years ago, the Thai Baht has been among the world strongest most stable currencies...and unlike in most Western countries there were no annual property taxes levied.   Compare this to Australia where high priced property is definitely peaking in value now (and a real risk this down move will only accelerate) even while on top the AU$ has lost over 25% vs. Thai Baht in just the past 4 years.

Right on xylophone.   that is the “curse of the century”: a total-gross lack of financial investment education by our educators which have all but ignored this...  Go figure why?  Or, It then also leaves the door open to take advantage of folks which have no clue around this.

Some years ago I offered to give free financial investor classes at Thailand’s most expensive boarding school here  (BIS), which educate young aspiring people, many from well to do families. Surely in their own lives this will be an issue again and again; yet nobody there seems interested in addressing this dire short coming.   Realize, as humans we tend to not like (and then bad-mouth) what we don’t know.   PS. I was just stating facts regarding the Thai SET, not promoting anything.  To be clear,  in the past 2 years investing in the SET has mostly not been rewarding except for a few largest capitalized stock picks.  One reason is the very inept approach by the brokerage industry.

Lots of good comments here on this topic along with lots of negative nonsense, as usual. For what its worth I do agree with the statement "I would agree with you that lower quality properties in sub-prime locations are stagnant if not in “glut”. Lots of questionable stuff has been built in poor locations over the years with the erroneous hope that “if we build it, they will come"  Right on. This in fact hits the nail by the hammer. 

Over many years so many expats have come here with their savings/capital and because they mostly have poor investment education/experience/savvy,  hence they just built a nice house (or a nie houe, as some Thai's would say).  Deducing its the best investment for their capital and one they can enjoy.  Reality is, hey have no clue about financial investments alternatives and because they have no understanding on that, think all such are manipulated and crooked.  Not least, Thai stocks for example can in fact totally legally be held in a foreign name and repatriation out of Thailand is all but assured (or no foreign money would ever invest here in that asset class again). 

During this same period, say the last decade, the SET index has more then doubled, the Thai Baht has nicely appreciated...-and besides had they built a truly special place  (not just another vanilla nie houe with walls around it) they would have done relatively well, even in otherwise an oversupplied Phuket "me too" housing market.  As pointed out in a previous post, a well chosen Condo building right on the park  (no, not on the beach) has appreciated over 50% in value since opening 4 years ago.  So lets not confuse brains -with poor investment choices on just an average property investment.

Also, unlike many places in the world, the Phuket housing market is not financially over-leveraged (i.e. little bank loans) which means sellers are not forced to walk away, or so called forced sold out,  and this is likely the biggest reasons why we not see a glut (however one wants to define it) resulting in an across the board price dumping.  This is rarely mentioned, but Phuket real estate is barely bank mortgaged...so owners can hold on if they want.

Ha, yet the Thai Baht has been among the worlds strongest currency (Bloomberg says so), increasing nearly15% vs. both the US$ and Swiss Franc, and less so against the EU.  Hence compared to major global currencies rents here have in fact increased, even if not in Baht terms. Also beware there are few renters' rights here so you can leave anytime as well as get kicked out anytime if a more desirable renter comes along.