thaistocks

This Condo project as an example, well off the beaches, but next to Phuket Town biggest and expanding municipal park, more then doubled in value since its start just some 3-4 years ago.  http://www.sugarpalmresidence.com/

For years in the 1990's they said the same thing about the many shop-houses existing and yet ever being more built in Phuket; yet 10-20 years later many have increased in value 5 to 10 times.  In Phuket town many shop houses have soared in value, vs. before expert foreigners told us it was a boring town. Its not so much about yes/no the property mkt. stalled here for long, or if it has just become far more selective.

Also proper foreign ownership is easy in Thai stocks and there are many funds or blue chips which pay good dividends. Repatriation in ones' name is also assured, obviously, or nobody would invest here again.  :)

Yes. The Chinese are coming en-masse, and this will only get more pronounced and can go on for many years.  There are some very high class individuals with plenty of money willing to open companies or other ways to own assets here.  Its in part what will dent the nay-sayers that claim property prices are long peaked in Phuket.

Sorry for the bad typo in my previous posting which said:"

"The far more interesting question -nobody seems to ask- is why have smaller and mid cap stocks broadly so outperformed the SET index, over say the past couple of years? " 

It should have stated:  he far more interesting question -nobody seems to ask- is why have smaller and mid cap stocks broadly so under-performed the SET index, over say the past couple of years?

The far more interesting question -nobody seems to ask- is why have smaller and mid cap stocks broadly so outperformed the SET index, over say the past couple of years?   In the past individual investors (which often invest in those here) would make up 60 to 75% of the average daily trading volume...no more as it dropped for some time already below 50%.  Any business which saw its core customer base shrink like this would be more then alarmed.  Yet the SET and indirectly the brokers here go on as if nothing is wrong.  To be fair, there were other periods in the distant past where smaller/mid cap stocks diverged from the SET -and visa versa.  This time however its more pronounced then ever and deserves dire concern, nowhere expressed nor addressed.

PTTGC (100), one of the largest cap stocks here,  was much touted since last September some 35% ago, all along -and up.  It by a factor of just about 5 times, beat the SET index rise, since it started its ascent later last year.

Also,  ha..was maximum bullish on PPS at the end of year 2016, PPS almost doubled in price by late September '17, plus a 20% stock dividend paid last May '17.  Its true that of late smaller cap stocks have overall under-performed the SET which seems abandoned by the so many retail investors, not least due to in general inept Thai broker behavior.

The Thai stock market, like many others around the world, has been buoyant of late.  No least because of a perceived pick-up in Thai economic growth. Also because of the belief there will be elections held say within a year.  The SET benchmark index recently hit an all time high and is hovering just above that around 1830, going into the first days of February. Contrary to many nay-sayers here, Thai stocks have been on a roar... really?  No, not so fast, as the rise of the market has been mostly confined to a bunch of very large capitalized shares which make up the bulk of SET benchmark index.  In fact a closer look shows that not only has the rise been focused on very large SET companies, in fact retail investor participation has lately dropped to below 50% of total market volume.  Alarming.  This is significant as in the past retail investors usually made up some 65 to 80% of total market SET trading volume.

The local brokerage industry should ask themselves' why retail investors are in such great numbers recently abandoned investing in the Thai stock market as a savings alternative; evenwhile domestic interest rates remain soo low and the stock market has been bullish. One reason surely must be due to the ineptness of the industry which serves stock investors.  Confidence and trust are among the most important elements required to attract investors, and it seems this is ebbing...at least when as it concerns the local retail investor community.  This is a (big) shame, because here there are many smaller and mid sized listed companies which are attractive -besides make up the bulk of the Thai economy.  Retail investors exiting is bad news for those firms, as they will loose a large percent of people which invest in such companies, vs. institutions which most only consider/invest in large capitalized stocks due to their obsessive liquidity requirements. 

I frown upon the SET/SEC and the Thai brokerage industry for issuing IPO's to foreigners living in Thailand while at the same time not making available the IPO prospectus in English.  Gulf Energy (51) this week started trading in what is this years largest Thai IPO. The company confirmed to us it has the English language prospectus which was offered to institutional investors abroad, but why not to individual foreign investors in Thailand!?  Foreign investors  in IPO's are "encouraged to read this before investing" besides clicked a box in their broker accounts that they did read this, even while its not available.   In my professional view, issuing IPO's to a   class of investors without the availability of a readable prospectuses goes against proper international Securities Industry standards regarding this.  

With the economy now accelerating and next year Elections promised, there are select good companies here to invest in, -but for the Thai brokerage community there is allot left to be desired.

I have been in and out of Bangkok dozens of times, traveling via Taxi's to all kinds of places visiting companies. Never encountered any problems fo any kind....except maybe a Taxi A/c not working correctly.  Once years ago a bundled of cash slipped out of my silk suit pocket -and a stranger ran after me to return it.

Agree with the just last post. No view, no sale.  But sea views can/is overrated...for sure vacationers want/adore ocean views. Long term residents (property buyers) can be bored with that over time even while they don't know this at the outset.  Lots of astute physiological studies have been done (mostly in the US) on what most people actually treasure most in views,  it's a valley with a lake and trees, a variety of green and beyond. Only a stale blue sea with blue horizon view is overrated in the long run, along with the more salty humid air...not least the nerdy touristy environment.

If you take the annual real estate taxes saved and invest this in a long say 5% annual return ETF fund (the SET has over many crisis average yieled almost 10% over say 20-25 years) at the end of 30 years, or 90 as the previous post mentions, you got compounded most of your money back, and then some, even if the lease at the end just expires.  Hence, from a pure finance/rational perspective its actually a wash and not the negative so many perceive at first look.

Some good comments, as usual most negative. Most all resorts around the world have traffic congestion, especially during the the high season!  I was in St. Tropez, considered one of France most exclusive resorts in April of 2016, (no not Easter) big traffic congestion at all times of the day getting out of there. The parking lot had holes, unfinished pavement.. just lousy.  Property prices are horrific, the food is unhealthy and overpriced by any standard,  taxes sky high.  The ocean not as nice as in Phuket.

Unlike most other resorts, Phuket real estate has no property taxes to speak of, and if you present value (PV) annual property taxes in other "more developed" resorts these amount to a huge amount! So factor that in.  Most of Phuket property have no bank mortgages' or other liens on it. Hence its very underleveraged vs. compared to other top resorts. This is important because if there ever is a global crisis of some sort people's property are all but paid for in Phuket,  no need for bail outs or forced sales. Again, compare that to other key tourist non-Thai destinations, which are chuck full of financial levearage.  Its true over the past couple of years there were traffic nightmares due to mega-infrastrucre undertaking,often delayed, but these have now been 90% completed..and traffic congestion is noticeable far less. Chalong being the last major bottle neck. The new airport is just about fantastic and so are the international direct flights.  Health care is tops with key and expanded major international hospitals and so are various top internationally rated English schools.

It is true there is an abundance of "nice houses" around, many have a sign up for sale. As these owners dreams of making a bundle, but in nor hurry. This has to do mostly with many expats coming here over the years and then only invest in their home or homes, thinking on making "good investment business". This is in good part because most have no clue to financial assets investing as an alternative, as they think bad about the SET (if you don't understand something you inherently don't like it) and so just think if "I build it, buyers will come"  and in the meantime one can see it, kick it, garden it.. and enjoy it. Too often lack of zoning laws, does not help.  Over time there has been a built up of homes, many are nothing to really get excited around. Walled up with a mini-pool and no view, often in a back alley.  Agreed those are in abundance and nearly unsellable.  But any special property with view and some real Wow factor, are moving and besides, renting well.

In most countries including Thailand smaller and mid cap companies make-up the bulk of the economy. That's a fact.

Yet, most institutional funds including ETF's only invest in the top tier stocks, so miss out on all the rest.  Further, most mid and small cap

companies grown on average faster then large more mature companies...while in Thailand often paying less in yields/dividends.  Big cap companies are over-analysed and over-chased by brokers and mega institutions alike, and by traders which want nice graphs and have huge liquidity. Hence often the best investor bargains are off the radar screens of most investors, evenwhile as a whole they make up the bulk of the economy. (not market cap), grow faster (on avearage) and here at least, pay nice dividends.

46 minutes ago, madmitch said:

I assume you are in the real estate business!

Nope not at all, read my user name.  :)

Yes, there likely is but these would most only invest in institutionally required high liquid top 50-100 SET stocks, hence exactly those which have run up already...while all but ignoring the rest which make some 70% of the Thai economy.  These have not moved much (yet!) as they usually catch up post an initial run up.   1.9% fee over 20 years is a bundle for sure, but if you make 10% per year during the same period its an exponentially if far, far bigger amount, especially compared to 1-2% interest in the Bank, taxed at 15%  vs. SET gains have no Thai income tax.  Low cost ETF's are all the rage of late because in good part they have done so well in the US.  No wonder, as that market roared up for years and years..and any money manager which prudently held cash reserves on hand was well, was left behind...evenwhile he/she took less risk.

2 1/2 years later after this topic was first pounded on,  since then: Phuket road new mega infrastructure is just about done.  The new Intl. Airport has opened with doubled capacity. The Chinese are coming in droves, some now to buy property...not least because Sydney and Melbourne are well, way over priced...and the Thai Baht currency is firm. The new mega Central multi billion Baht shopping center is about to open with fanfare -and not least the health and expanded hospital sector is just about fantastic. There are no to little property taxes here, the traffic has gotten better and at least to some extend the beach mafia has been cleaned up.  After some years of healthy consolidation, select properties with at least some views besides peace will re-surge...and many naysayers will miss it. Or worse get stuck in well overvalued other key global risky destinations like Toronto, Melbourne, Sydney and oh boy, London.

Transferring money outside Thailand is always a question of:  are you transferring funds into your own name, or to a third party. If you want to transfer money to another person or say a company (outside Thailand) and are known to your bank they will ask for some kind of bill or invoice, i.e. the reason for the transfer. If you transfer funds to your own name it should be a bit easier, within limitations.

But, When/if you transfer funds from a Thai brokerage account, and its from your name to your same name overseas, then there are no questions and its just about automatic, but few people know this here. Hence its very easy to transfer from most all Thai brokers to overseas, but not from Banks. It is what it is.

We understand the NGV buses new bid have been re-submitted are about to be awarded shortly. I still think CHO (1.81) has a good chance to get this mega-contract besides has many other good things brewing now, and so likely will show record revenues this and next year. This company's stock price has fallen from 4-5 Baht level 3 years ago- and is now an interesting turnaround stock, in my own view.

None seem to get the point here, or care: a competent local Thai company had the concession all wrapped up on competitive bidding, only to be muscled out.

What's really shameful of this whole NGV bus story is that a well qualified Thai listed company was awarded the concession on good merit, only to be muscled out later.  On page 4 of Cho Thavee's (CHO, 1.75) 2015 annual report the Chairman writes: "The company under joint venture has won the tender of NGV project..."  then on page 5 the President of CHO writes in its letter to shareholders: "However as you all have known, the NGV public transportation project...has been suspended therefore we need to take legal action against the government  agency further in 2016."

On page  74 of this same last annual report it further notes:   "The government agency announced the company has won the auction for the repair and maintenance of buses on July 27 2015.  Afterward, the company had received a canceling letter of the 489 unitsof natural gas (NGV) public transportation buses purchasing project contract.."

Phuket just in the past 2-3 days "Inclusion on the UNESCO Creative Cities listing for its gastronomic delights", ThaiVisa just today reports how BBC news thinks Thailand is among the 7th best places to live after retirement. Post the mega infrastructure projects completion here over the next 2 years, and the burnout of all those marginal homeowners posting here, Phuket will have a second wind. Watch see and learn.

Its exactly because of Pinot's point of view, shared by many here, that property ownership can make sense. Plenty want to come here, retire here and enjoy while "by God no, never invest anything"'; so the few that do can ha, realize nice rental income from those very naysayers. The key is to have a special and quiet place, not just a me too, "nie houe". In time that very bunch will have their ah ever so "safe" assets taxed back in their foreign countries regardless where they live, just like the US is setting the global trend on that of late. Mind you, one of the biggest property bust of all times was cooked up right in the US not so long ago.