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Everything posted by TallGuyJohninBKK
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The ICE document that's the subject of this thread makes absolutely NO reference to what periods of time, or what presidential administrations, are reflected in their statistics. Entirely apart from how HHS has now clarified that the stats cover many past decades of reporting. But misinformation peddlers are trying to blame the whole thing on Biden and Harris, when in fact there's no evidence to actually support that. And even Fox's own reporting as posted earlier in this thread acknowledges that most of the 430,000+ non-detained prior criminal history cases cited in the recent ICE report stemmed from 2016 and before. "in August 2016, toward the end of the Obama administration, ICE said there were about 2.2 million noncitizens on the non-detained docket and about 368,574 were convicted criminals." [emphasis added] https://www.yahoo.com/news/white-house-mum-amid-outrage-001642921.html So most of the criminal history stats being reported lately by ICE -- however accurate or inaccurate they may be) appear to predate BOTH the Trump and Biden administrations.
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And you think the MS gang only magically showed up in the U.S. under the Biden-Harris administration? Fraid not! Why Trump Talked About MS-13 Gang Violence in His State of the Union January 31, 2018 ... The uptick in violence has sparked a crackdown against MS-13 on Long Island, with the local police teaming up with federal law enforcement to take on the gang. Seventeen adult members and associates of MS-13 are facing charges in federal court on Long Island, including four members of the Westside Sailors clique who allegedly killed Cuevas and Mickens. Since the spring, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement has arrested around 400 suspected gang members as part of the crackdown. However, the effort has also led to the unlawful detention of minors, including 26 teenagers who were held on charges of “gang affiliation,” but released in the past few months following a class-action lawsuit filed by the ACLU. https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/why-trump-talked-about-ms-13-gang-violence-in-his-state-of-the-union/ Trump had a chance earlier this year to have Congress pass a bipartisan immigration bill that would have added new funding for more immigration officers, expand detention facilities and toughen various other immigration provisions. The legislation was supported by the border patrol officers union. And Trump had it killed. "The bill was also supported by several groups that typically align with Republicans, such as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the Wall Street Journal editorial board. The National Border Patrol Council, a union that represents about 18,000 border patrol agents, also endorsed the bill." https://www.factcheck.org/2024/02/unraveling-misinformation-about-bipartisan-immigration-bill/
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Then believe what CBP (Customs and Border Protection) reports below: Here's a different set of stats on the CBP website that DOES call out their criminal convictions history data on arrests involving non-citizens by individual recent years, and also by type of prior criminal conviction among the people they have arrested. And it paints a drastically different picture, with prior illegal entry convictions making up the largest criminal history share involving of their recent year arrests. Criminal Noncitizen Statistics "The following is a summary of U.S. Border Patrol enforcement actions related to arrests of criminal noncitizens for Fiscal Years 2017 - 2024. Records checks of available law enforcement databases following the apprehension of an individual may reveal a history of criminal conviction(s). That conviction information is recorded in a U.S. Customs and Border Protection database, from which the data below is derived." Yellow highlights below added for emphasis: https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/cbp-enforcement-statistics/criminal-noncitizen-statistics By way of background: "ICE and CBP are both components of the Department of Homeland Security; CBP enforces customs and immigration law at and near the border and ICE enforces customs and immigration laws at the border as well as in the interior of the United States. CBP is charged with keeping terrorists and their weapons out of the U.S. while facilitating lawful international travel and trade. ICE is responsible for protecting the United States from the cross-border crime and illegal immigration that threaten national security and public safety." https://www.ice.gov/careers/faqs
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Except according to a Department of Homeland Security statement reported today in Fox News, the cited stats from the ICE report are an aggregation of data going back over 40+ years! And a lot of uncertainty over just how current/accurate the stats are for now, given that ICE seemingly doesn't always get updated when there's a status change. "In a statement on Saturday, DHS said the data was being "misinterpreted." "The data goes back decades; it includes individuals who entered the country over the past 40 years or more, the vast majority of whose custody determination was made long before this Administration," a spokesperson said. "It also includes many who are under the jurisdiction or currently incarcerated by federal, state or local law enforcement partners." [emphasis added] https://www.yahoo.com/news/white-house-mum-amid-outrage-001642921.html
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The same article from the BBC also includes another nugget that shoots down Trump and Co.'s attempt to place the blame on this entire immigration policy issue on Biden and Harris: "The US Department of Homeland Security has estimated there were 11 million illegal migrants living in the US as of January 2022. It says about a fifth of them arrived in 2010 or later but the majority arrived before this time, some as early as the 1980s." [emphasis added] That's a lot of prior presidents and congresses who have their fingers in this pie. And yet it was primarily the current Republicans and Trump who earlier this year killed the bipartisan immigration legislation that would have been the biggest legislative fix in decades aimed at improving the current immigration situation. But Trump and Co. had no interest in fixing or improving the immigration problem. They just wanted a bogus campaign issue decades in the making that they could try to falsely pin on Biden and Harris. The failed Immigration legislation because of Trump and Co. Unraveling Misinformation About Bipartisan Immigration Bill Posted on February 8, 2024 "The $118 billion bill, called the Emergency National Security Supplemental Appropriations Act, sought significant changes in border policy. It included money to build more border barriers, to greatly expand detention facilities, and to hire more Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Border Patrol agents, asylum officers and immigration judges to reduce the years-long backlog in cases to determine asylum eligibility. It sought to expedite the asylum process, essentially ending — in most cases — the so-called “catch and release” policy whereby migrants are released into the U.S. pending asylum hearings. And it would have increased the standard of evidence needed to win asylum status." ... Trump and other Republicans have also said the bill would have permitted up to 5,000 illegal entries per day, but that’s not accurate either. ... “It’s not that the first 5,000 [migrants encountered at the border] are released, that’s ridiculous,” Lankford said on the Senate floor. “The first 5,000 we detain, we screen and then we deport. If we get above 5,000, we just detain and deport.” https://www.factcheck.org/2024/02/unraveling-misinformation-about-bipartisan-immigration-bill/
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What you somewhat disingenuously failed to note in your quoted excerpt above regarding 2016 statistics was the two sentences that immediately preceded it, which I'd have to assume you saw: "The [Obama] enforcement priorities and policies, which evolved over the years, represented a significant departure from those of the Bush and Clinton administrations. As detailed below, the Obama-era policies represented the culmination of a gradual but consistent effort to narrow its enforcement focus to two key groups: The deportation of criminals and recent unauthorized border crossers." If an administration starts out with the premise that "criminals" are one of only two groups that they're going to target for deportation, then it's hardly surprising that a certain share (90% of the leftover 15% share, meaning less than 15% overall) not involving recent crossers in fact involved criminals. But that hardly makes that kind of data from back in 2016 somehow representative of the broader, larger undocumented immigrant population or the totality of border crossers. However, the BBC above (Sept.28) gave more current data that's probably more meaningful and representative of reality: "Of the 1.5 million apprehensions of people crossing the border illegally so far this financial year - and where Border Patrol was able to check against law enforcement databases - about 15,608 were of people with previous criminal convictions. The most common conviction was for illegal entry into another country (9,545), followed by driving under the influence (2,577), and drug possession and trafficking offences (1,414)." https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0jp4xqx2z3o By my math, that works out to about a 1% rate of prior criminal convictions based on the above numbers, with the largest number being illegal entry into another country (which would hardly be surprising given the population involved here). Not quite the ginned up, fake immigrant crime wave that Trump and Co. and trying to sell....
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This thread, and the ways in which the underlying report from ICE has been misrepresented, is a good illustration of the saying popularized by Mark Twain: ""Lies, damned lies, and statistics" "Lies, damned lies, and statistics" is a phrase describing the persuasive power of statistics to bolster weak arguments, "one of the best, and best-known" critiques of applied statistics.[2] It is also sometimes colloquially used to doubt statistics used to prove an opponent's point. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lies,_damned_lies,_and_statistics
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What it is is Trump and Co. abusing and misrepresenting statistics to paint a false picture and falsely attribute blame to Biden and Harris for the ICE data, as explained in the following Fox News report: "In a statement on Saturday, DHS said the data was being "misinterpreted." "The data goes back decades; it includes individuals who entered the country over the past 40 years or more, the vast majority of whose custody determination was made long before this Administration," a spokesperson said. "It also includes many who are under the jurisdiction or currently incarcerated by federal, state or local law enforcement partners." [emphasis added] https://www.yahoo.com/news/white-house-mum-amid-outrage-001642921.html AND Using the data in the above Fox News report, as I posted above: The ICE count of undocumented individuals with supposed non-detained criminal conviction histories already was 368,574 before Trump and Biden ever took office, and only grew by almost 57,000 (about 15%) during the entire eight years of the Trump and Biden administrations to the newly reported figure of 425,431, with no breakdown of how many were added during either of those two presidents. Thus, Trump and related Republicans who have long histories of demonizing documented and undocumented immigrants will try to paint the ICE report numbers as somehow the fault of Biden and Harris, and that the crime situation has been spiraling out of control -- when in fact, the ICE report and its recap of 40+ years of stats does and says nothing of the kind. https://aseannow.com/topic/1339308-tens-of-thousands-of-illegal-immigrants-with-sexual-assault-murder-convictions-roaming-us/?do=findComment&comment=19268600
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Not quite that simple: "On January 5, 2023, the Biden administration announced its intent to provide “safe and orderly pathways to the United States” for up to 30,000 nationals of Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela. The new program, formally known as the Processes for Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, and Venezuelans (CHNV), allows certain people from these four countries who have a sponsor in the U.S. and who pass a background check to come to the U.S. for a period of two years to live and work lawfully, using a legal mechanism known as “humanitarian parole.” The creation of this new parole program, however, was coupled with restricted access to asylum at the U.S./Mexico border for migrants from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela. Starting in January 2023, the government of Mexico agreed to allow the U.S. to expel up to 30,000 migrants from those countries to Mexico each month—preventing them from requesting asylum under U.S. immigration law. With the expiration of the Title 42 order in May 2023, the U.S. announced that it would formally deport some migrants from these countries to Mexico instead of to their home countries. ... With the expansion of the program to Cubans, Haitians, and Nicaraguans on January 9, 30,000 monthly slots are available in total, across all four countries." https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/research/biden-administrations-humanitarian-parole-program-cubans-haitians-nicaraguans-and
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Actually that's an intentional misstatement (lie) Trump has repeatedly made, most recently when he kept referring to LEGALLY permitted Haitian migrants in Springfield, Ohio as "illegals" A few examples among many: "Do you denounce the bomb threats in Springfield?” a reporter asked Trump on 14 September. “I don’t know what happened with the bomb threats,” Trump lied. “I know that it’s been taken over by illegal migrants, and that’s a terrible thing that happened.” ... “These are people that aren’t legally in our country. This is an invasion of our country.” AND "The next day, at a rally in Arizona, Trump conflated his lie about “eating pets” with his lurid stories about migrant murders. ... You have this small little community. All of a sudden you have 20,000 illegals in your community. Nobody knows where they come from." https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/sep/20/trump-vance-springfield-immigrants-avoid-abortion As for the Haitians legal status, the city of Springfield has a FAQ webpage that answers that question: "Q: Are the immigrants here legally and how did they qualify? A: YES, Haitian immigrants are here legally, under the Immigration Parole Program. Once here, immigrants are then eligible to apply for Temporary Protected Status (TPS). Haiti is designated by the Secretary of Homeland Security for TPS. Current TPS is granted through February 3, 2026." https://springfieldohio.gov/immigration-faqs/
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Some added useful context from the BBC: "Of the 1.5 million apprehensions of people crossing the border illegally so far this financial year - and where Border Patrol was able to check against law enforcement databases - about 15,608 were of people with previous criminal convictions. The most common conviction was for illegal entry into another country (9,545), followed by driving under the influence (2,577), and drug possession and trafficking offences (1,414)." https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0jp4xqx2z3o By my math, that works out to about a 1% rate of prior criminal convictions based on the above numbers, with the largest number being illegal entry into another country (which would hardly be surprising given the population involved here). Not quite the immigrant crime wave Trump and related Republicans are trying to gin up..... Meanwhile, as for Trump's bogus claims: "He [Trump] has repeatedly criticised the government's record on the border, saying "Kamala Harris has allowed 21 million illegals to pour in from all over the world." ... These encounters have risen to record highs under the Biden administration but not to the level Trump - who has not provided a source for his claim - maintains." [emphasis added]. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0jp4xqx2z3o The guy just makes stuff up as he goes along, and rarely seems to have any basis in facts or reality. However, it does seem like there are an awful lot of immigrant haters out there, in the U.S. and elsewhere, which is particularly sad given that pretty much EVERYONE who lives in the U.S. (apart from Native Americans) has their familial roots as immigrants at some point in time.
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I used to work in government for many years, and must say, I'm baffled at how ICE handled the release of this data to the requesting congressman. Absolutely no problem with the data being provided. Government agencies need to be responsive to congressional oversight. But to put out such a document so entirely lacking in context and perspective as to what the data really means, and what periods of time the data in fact covers, simply is IRRESPONSIBLE. Anyone with half a brain in Washington D.C. politics would have to know that Trump and the related Republicans would likely use and abuse the data given any opportunity, as has been their custom in the past when it comes to immigration issues. Unless it was an attempt on the part of the acting ICE director under whose name the report was issued [Patrick J. Lechleitner, Deputy Director and Senior Official Performing the Duties of the Director] to play blatant pre-election politics.
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As the New York Times reported recently -- there is no migrant crime surge: The Myth of Migrant Crime Republicans suggest that immigrants are especially likely to be criminals. The data shows the opposite. July 18, 2024 ... "In fact, U.S. rates of crime and immigration have moved in opposite directions in recent years. After illegal immigration plummeted in 2020, the murder rate rose. And after illegal immigration spiked in 2021 and 2022, murders plateaued and then fell. Over a longer period, there is no relationship between immigration and crime trends. The number of foreign-born Americans has increased for decades, while the murder rate has gone up and down at different times, as these charts by my colleague Ashley Wu show: Yes, some migrants have committed violent crimes. There are more than 45 million immigrants in the U.S., and invariably some of them — just like people of any other group — will do bad things. Similarly, thousands of native-born Americans commit violent crimes in any given week." https://archive.ph/U80ig
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Perhaps one of the reasons this report from ICE got little major media coverage, except for mostly the usual cast of right-wing Trump supporting outlets, are the following details reported today by Fox in a follow-up article: "In a statement on Saturday, DHS said the data was being "misinterpreted." "The data goes back decades; it includes individuals who entered the country over the past 40 years or more, the vast majority of whose custody determination was made long before this Administration," a spokesperson said. "It also includes many who are under the jurisdiction or currently incarcerated by federal, state or local law enforcement partners." [emphasis added] The administration has said it needs more funding and reforms from Congress to fix a "broken" immigration system, including via a bipartisan Senate bill introduced this year – which has been rejected by Republicans. DHS said that bill would have provided much-needed resources, including additional immigration enforcement agents and officers and additional detention resources." https://www.yahoo.com/news/white-house-mum-amid-outrage-001642921.html The same Fox report also included the following added detail for sorely lacking context -- the recent ICE report says their non-detained docket counted 425,431 undocumented individuals with criminal convictions. Then adding of that number, "The data does not reveal how many of those criminals are recent arrivals. [emphasis added] But then the article goes on to add, "in August 2016, toward the end of the Obama administration, ICE said there were about 2.2 million noncitizens on the non-detained docket and about 368,574 were convicted criminals." [emphasis added] Meaning, that the ICE count of undocumented individuals with supposed criminal conviction histories already was 368,574 before Trump and Biden ever took office, and only grew by almost 57,000 (about 15%) during the entire eight years of the Trump and Biden administrations, with no breakdown of how many were added during either of those two presidents. Thus, Trump and related Republicans who have long histories of demonizing documented and undocumented immigrants will try to paint the ICE report numbers as somehow the fault of Biden and Harris, and that the crime situation has been spiraling out of control. When in fact, whatever the numbers really represent (and that looks to be in considerable doubt given the DHS comments reported above about the data going back 40+ years and that the non-detained count in fact includes individual who ARE incarcerated), the vast majority of those counted got added to ICE's list (whatever it may or may not represent) long before Trump and Biden came along.
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A bit more clarity now on the question of arrival timing regarding the undocumented individuals recently reported by ICE as having criminal histories, per NBC News: More than 13,000 immigrants convicted of homicide here or abroad are living freely in the U.S., ICE says Two law enforcement officials familiar with the data said many of the migrants on the ICE list crossed into the U.S. under previous administrations. Sept. 28, 2024 ... "It is not clear when the first migrant of the 13,000 crossed into the U.S. Two law enforcement officials familiar with the data told NBC News many of the migrants on ICE’s non-detained docket, including serious criminals, crossed into the U.S. under previous administrations, including former President Donald Trump’s." https://www.nbcnews.com/investigations/13000-immigrants-convicted-homicide-living-freely-us-ice-data-rcna173125 Maybe Trump and Co. ought to be a bit more careful before they continue pointing the blame finger at others regarding undocumented immigrants with criminal histories.
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Well put below from your linked source: "In a statement first published by Fox News, the GOP trio said the 2024 election “presents a stark choice that is not easy for any of us” because the Republican Party exemplified by President Dwight D. Eisenhower, longtime Kansas senator Bob Dole, and “generations of Kansas leaders” no longer exists within the Trump-era version of the GOP. [emphasis added] “But, it requires Republicans speaking out and putting country over party when those values are at stake,” they said, adding, “No candidate is perfect, and we do not pretend that we subscribe to all the policy positions taken either by the national parties or any individual candidates.”
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Not like the Republicans and Fox/Hannity haven't presented misleading data and made false claims on crimes and undocumented immigrants before.... March 23, 2018 "Four years ago, then-Gov. Rick Perry misrepresented state-posted numbers and inaccurately claimed that thousands of Texas murders had lately been committed by unauthorized immigrants. More recently, Fox News commentator Sean Hannity drew our attention when he dipped into the same pool of figures on his March 7, 2018 program... ... A couple of outside criminologists who reviewed the DPS-posted information at our request told us the presented tally of charges--not convictions--did not support Perry’s attribution of homicides to immigrants. (more) https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2018/mar/23/sean-hannity/sean-hannity-642000-crimes-committed-immigrants-il/
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Also, as best as I can read the ICE communication contained within the Fox News report that's linked in the OP, the ICE document does NOT seem to indicate WHEN all the supposed undocumented immigrants with criminal histories in their count came into the U.S. or what period of time/years their count covers. Does the count reflect entries during the Biden admin, during the Trump admin, or even prior? On its face, the ICE communication doesn't seem to say. But the document does say in regards to recent activity: "From mid-May 2023 through the end of July 2024, DHS removed or returned more than 893,600 individuals, including more than 138,300 individuals in family units. The majority of all individuals encountered at the Southwest Border over the past three years have been removed, returned, or expelled." [emphasis added] https://www.foxnews.com/politics/tens-thousands-illegal-immigrants-sexual-assault-homicide-convictions-roaming-us-streets
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Some of the other bogus anti-immigrant nonsense topics inspired by Trump lately and dutifully posted to this forum by his sycophants: "PolitiFact has debunked numerous claims about immigrants and crime: There’s no evidence Haitian immigrants are eating pets, wildlife in Springfield ... A Venezuelan gang takeover in Aurora, Colorado? City officials, residents say no ... Reports about 32 Venezuelan armed migrants taking over a Chicago building are fake" ... etc. etc. etc. https://www.politifact.com/article/2024/sep/27/whats-behind-recent-false-claims-about-immigrants/
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What’s behind recent false claims about immigrants and crime? September 27, 2024 ... What does the data show? Studies have historically shown that immigrants commit crimes at a lower rate than U.S. citizens. No available data backs claims that there is a migrant crime wave happening in the U.S., despite the online and political rhetoric. ... "If we pay attention to what the last 80 years of studies have told us, we would see, in general, that there's likely to be no significant impact on crime," because of increased immigration, Charis Kubrin, a University of California, Irvine criminology, law and society professor, and member of the Council on Criminal Justice, said. ... FBI data released Sept. 23, though not specific to immigration status, also dampens any claims of increased crime because of immigrants. That’s because U.S. crime was down significantly in 2023, the most recent data available — violent crimes were down 3% from 2022 and property crimes were down 2.4%. Murder has dropped 11.6%, the data shows. https://www.politifact.com/article/2024/sep/27/whats-behind-recent-false-claims-about-immigrants/
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Regarding the claims in the OP: Per Reuters: "Studies and estimates by academics and think tanks show undocumented immigrants commit crimes at a lower rate than U.S.-born individuals. [emphasis added] NO NATIONAL STATISTIC There is no nationwide data on crimes committed specifically by undocumented immigrants, but research shows they do not commit crimes at a higher rate than native-born Americans. ... TEXAS DATA Two studies found that undocumented immigrants in Texas commit homicide at significantly lower rates than their U.S.-born counterparts." https://www.reuters.com/fact-check/no-evidence-4000-people-are-killed-yearly-by-undocumented-immigrants-2024-09-27/
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This Sean Hannity? Sean Hannity (Once Again) Confirms He Is Not a Journalist The admission came after CNN revealed exchanges showing close cooperation with Mark Meadows. April 30, 2022 "In case you needed a reminder that Sean Hannity isn’t a journalist so much as a GOP operative with a talk show, look to the texts he was sending Trump Chief of Staff Mark Meadows between the 2020 election and Joe Biden’s inauguration. On Friday, CNN published a new report spotlighting texts that depict the two men talking strategy on how to help Trump win the election, hyping each other up to overthrow democracy, affirming their friendship, and—when it became clear that Trump would probably have to leave office—discussing a joint North Carolina real estate venture." ... “I go out of my way to explain what my job is, because a lot of people in the media mob do not understand what we do,” Hannity said on his Friday broadcast. “Yes, I’m a member of the press… I’m on the Fox News Channel—which is a news channel—but I don’t claim to be a journalist.” https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2022/04/hannity-trump-meadows-big-lie-texting-scandal-cnn/
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For a broader look at global COVID seroprevalence rates through April 2022 - vastly higher numbers than those cited in the small OP study giving a snapshot of early pandemic findings from British Columbia: Global SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence from January 2020 to April 2022: A systematic review and meta-analysis of standardized population-based studies "Our understanding of the global scale of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection remains incomplete: Routine surveillance data underestimate infection and cannot infer on population immunity; there is a predominance of asymptomatic infections, and uneven access to diagnostics. " ... "We estimate that approximately 59.2% of the global population had antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 in September 2021 (35.9% when excluding vaccination). Global seroprevalence has risen considerably over time, from 7.7% a year before, in June 2020." [emphasis added] Overall seroprevalence rose steeply in 2021 due to infection in some regions (e.g., 26.6% [24.6 to 28.8] to 86.7% [84.6% to 88.5%] in Africa) and vaccination and infection in others (e.g., 9.6% [8.3% to 11.0%] to 95.9% [92.6% to 97.8%] in Europe high-income countries [HICs]). After the emergence of Omicron in March 2022, infection-induced seroprevalence rose to 47.9% [41.0% to 54.9%] in Europe HIC and 33.7% [31.6% to 36.0%] in Americas HIC. [emphasis added] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9648705/
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From the cited study: "In this study, we estimated that 0.60% (95%CI, 0%–2.71%) of the study population showed clear evidence of a prior infection with SARS-CoV-2... This prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infections was identical to the 0.55% prevalence reported by the BC CDC on 885 residual sera obtained from an outpatient laboratory network in the Lower Mainland of BC between May 15 and May 27, 2020. Data from the BC CDC represent a wider geographical catchment and do not specifically target HCW (12). The current study confirms that COVID-19 transmission in BC after the first wave was low, even among HCW, contrasting with a high seroprevalence reported among HCW in other studies (13–15), which may be attributed to the very low number of total tested cases in BC during the first wave." [emphasis added] "The first pandemic wave peaked between the third week of March and late April 2020 (11). As of May 17, only 2445 diagnosed COVID-19 cases (approximately 49 of 100,000 population) had been reported in BC after the first wave, which was the lowest rate in Canada and one of the lowest rates in North America." [emphasis added] In other words, localized results there that were more the exception than the rule in terms of seroprevalence at the time.