TallGuyJohninBKK

Thailand MoPH Weekly COVID report for June 30-July 6, 2024: --1,377 new COVID hospitalizations, averaging 197 per day, down 1,879 / 57.7% from 3,256 the prior week --11 new COVID deaths, down 5 / 31.3% from 16 the prior week --735 current COVID patients hospitalized in serious condition (pneumonia symptoms), up 26 / 3.7% from 709 the prior week (dark purple) --340 current COVID patients hospitalized requiring intubation/ventilation to breathe, up 4 / 1.2% from 336 the prior week (light purple) The latest 1,377 tally of new weekly COVID hospitalizations, averaging 197 per day, marked Thailand's largest single-week decline of the year, following the prior week's total of 3,256 that was the country's highest since December 2022. Still, the latest reported level of new weekly COVID hospitalizations remains almost three times higher than the number (501) at the start of the recent COVID surge in mid-March. And the latest single-week decline is only the third weekly decline in the past 17 weeks. The latest tally of 11 weekly COVID deaths is off of the year-high total of 16 from the prior week, but more than double the weekly COVID deaths total at the start of 2024. The latest small increases to 735 serious condition COVID hospitalized patients and 340 hospitalized patients requiring ventilation to breathe both remained just slightly below the year-high totals set last month. Cumulative figures since the start of the year are COVID hospitalizations (32,582) & COVID deaths (183). Of the 11 official COVID deaths for the past week, the MoPH is reporting that 6 were male and 5 female. By age, 6 were ages 70 and above, 3 were ages 60-69, and 1 each were in the age ranges 50-59 and 20-49. https://ddc.moph.go.th/covid19-dashboard/?dashboard=main The weekly new COVID hospitalization totals since this year's spring surge began in mid-March have been: March 16 -- 501 March 23 -- 630 March 30 -- 728 April 6 -- 774 April 13 -- 849 April 20 -- 1,004 April 27 -- 1,672 May 4 -- 1,792 May 11 -- 1,880 May 18 - 1,882 May 25 -- 1,801 June 1 -- 1,863 June 8 -- 2,762 June 15 -- 2,881 June 22 -- 1,823 June 29 -- 3,256 July 6 -- 1,377 By comparison, Thailand's key weekly COVID indicators to start 2024 were 664 new COVID hospitalizations and 4 COVID deaths for the first week of the year. Compared to the first week of July in 2023, cumulative COVID deaths thus far this year of 183 are far below the 727 figure from a year ago. But cumulative COVID hospitalizations thus far this year of 32,582 are running above the 29,696 total from the same point last year. Last week, MoPH official predicted that this year's spring COVID surge would peak by mid-July. Last year, Thailand also had a spring COVID surge that peaked in June before COVID hospitalizations declined into the fall.

Here, because the Thai government for now has abandoned all government-provided COVID vaccination efforts, probably because they don't want to spend the money amid their national government budget problems. And thus are leaving their senior citizen and other high-risk COVID groups, in particular, at serious health risk.

Except for these 1,847 COVID deaths in the U.S. of juveniles up thru June 2023, among others elsewhere: https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Deaths-by-Sex-Ages-0-18-years/xa4b-4pzv Or this broader estimate from the UN: How many children have died from COVID-19? "Among the 4.4 million COVID-19 deaths1 reported in the MPIDR COVerAGE database, 0.4 per cent (over 17,400) occurred in children and adolescents under 20 years of age. Of the over 17,400 deaths reported in those under 20 years of age, 53 per cent occurred among adolescents ages 10–19, and 47 per cent among children ages 0–9." https://data.unicef.org/topic/child-survival/covid-19/

Thailand had 3,256 hospitalizations for COVID just last week. So you probably need to work on your social circle some to get a meaningful sample. But yes, since a U.S. study I posted here just yesterday found that 2-3 year old pre-XBB COVID vaccinations basically aren't providing any protection against COVID hospitalizations at this point -- because of the long times that have passed since they were given and the virus having mutated many times since -- up-to-date XBB COVID vaccinations are really the only ones providing meaningful protection at this point, and that protection is pretty strong. (see below) But at least thus far, the Thai government isn't doing any XBB COVID vaccinations in this country of 70+ million people where most who have been vaccinated were last vaccinated with older version vaccines back in 2022 or prior. Useless at this point, thus as was your comment. https://aseannow.com/topic/1331424-study-latest-xbb-covid-19-vaccine-offers-protection-against-hospitalization/

Most of the comments you're quoting above were preceded by the professor's comment -- "Over the coming decades".

I think you'll find the so-called COVID comorbidity rates among the general population are not so small as you think. And the typical discussions about comorbidities focus on chronic medical conditions per se, and not mere aging itself which is the largest risk factor, as shown below. Updated Estimates of Chronic Conditions Affecting Risk for Complications from Coronavirus Disease, United States "We estimate that 56.0% of US adults, with a wide range across age groups and states, have >1 underlying conditions that increase risk for hospitalization caused by COVID-19." https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7454091/ AND Comorbidities, multimorbidity and COVID-19 "Modeling studies have estimated that 1.7 billion people globally (22% of the population) have at least one comorbidity that is associated with an increased risk of developing severe COVID-19." ... Most research related to the impact of long-term conditions on COVID-19 has focused on single comorbidities. However, one-third of adults globally are estimated to have two or more long-term conditions86, increasing to more than two-thirds in those aged 65 or older87. In a large study of hospitalized people with COVID-19 in the UK, crude mortality in patients with multimorbidity was more than double that of those without multimorbidity (37.2% versus 17.3%), even after adjusting for demographic factors https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-022-02156-9 Underlying Medical Conditions Associated with Higher Risk for Severe COVID-19: Information for Healthcare Professionals "Age is the strongest risk factor for severe COVID-19 outcomes. Patients with one or multiple of certain underlying medical conditions are also at higher risk.(1–3) Additionally, being unvaccinated or not being up to date on COVID-19 vaccinations also increases the risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/clinical-care/underlyingconditions.html

AFAIK, there's a difference between industrial use type CO2 and consumer use type CO2 for beverage carbonation in terms of the purity levels involved. I have a DrinkMate brand home carbonation unit similar to SodaStream that uses either 400g or 800g CO2 bottles. The 800g bottle lasts me about a month of use at home for sparkling water pretty much every day. The vendor of those units refills the 800g CO2 cartridges for 800 baht per. I have no idea if that's a reasonable price or not for home consumer use carbonation bottles here in Thailand.

Ya, like these folks: CONSPIRACY-PSEUDOSCIENCE Overall, we rate America’s Frontline Doctors a quackery-level pseudoscience website based on promoting false or misleading information regarding Coronavirus that does not align with the scientific consensus. We also rate them Low for factual reporting due to a lack of transparency and using known pseudoscience sources to draw their conclusions. "they give a page that lists its leadership, which does not contain an Epidemiologist, Immunologist, or Infectious Disease, expert. Additionally, if they have qualified physicians and researchers on staff, they are not listed on the website." https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/americas-frontline-doctors/ Or these folks fronted by a U.S. cardiologist, Peter McCullough, who's been among the most prolific misinformation peddlers of the pandemic. CONSPIRACY-PSEUDOSCIENCE Overall, we rate The Wellness Company as a conspiracy and pseudoscience website based on the promotion of alternative health claims that are either false, misleading, or unproven. "In general, The Wellness Company promotes pseudoscientific disinformation often as a way to promote alternative health products. Realistically, this site does not promote wellness but rather pseudoscience that can be harmful to health if proper medical treatments are not sought." https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/the-wellness-company-bias/

The UK, unlike Thailand, just wrapped up its spring nationwide campaign urging the elderly and others at high risk to get their updated COVID vaccination at the government's expense.... "On 20 June, NHS England said more than four million people had received a spring booster jab." https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55045639 And as for your other comments: Covid spike sees masks reintroduced at hospitals https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czk078zj5nyo AND Summer Covid wave hits UK as expert warns of Euro 2024 fuelling rise in infections A “growing” summer wave of Covid-19 has hit the UK as experts suggest the European football tournament is fueling a rise in infections. The latest figures from the UK Health Security Agency show that as of 19 June infections were up by 33 per cent on the previous week. Hospital admissions saw a slight increase. ... According to the UKHSA, Covid hospital admissions increased by 24 per cent in the week leading up to Sunday 23 June, with a rate of 3.31 per 100,000 people compared with 2.67 per 100,000 in the previous week. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/summer-covid-wave-2024-uk-euros-b2573767.html

And yet, COVID deaths keep piling up around the world week after week. Admittedly, fewer than in the worst years of the pandemic, and now mostly occurring among the elderly and those with other very common health conditions like overweight, diabetes, high blood pressure, etc etc. But still occurring, and still a risk. Notably, of the 16 official COVID deaths Thailand reported for the past week, two of them were in the age group 20-49, and another two were in the age group 50-59... Maybe someone forgot to tell them your fairy tale about COVID today being "essentially a non-severe and non-fatal viral infection." Or maybe it depends on how you define the term "essentially." Not to mention the other 709 people hospitalized in Thai hospitals as of Saturday who were listed in serious condition with COVID. I don't think it's "non-severe" for them. https://aseannow.com/topic/1331183-new-weekly-covid-hospitalizations-rocket-upward-to-3256-hitting-new-high-for-2023-2024/ Or the 146 people in the UK who died of COVID for the most recently reported week. https://ukhsa-dashboard.data.gov.uk/ Or the 64 people who died from COVID in Taiwan for the most recent week, up from 40 the week before. Or maybe some people here think they don't count because most of those deaths occurred with people age 65 and above. https://aseannow.com/topic/1331423-taiwan-sees-932-severe-covid-cases-64-weekly-covid-deaths-reported/ Or the 300 or so people who continue to die of COVID in the U.S. pretty much every week lately. https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_weeklydeaths_select_00 I suspect you'll argue despite all the COVID deaths reported above, the odds of dying remain low... And that's probably true... until you or a family member or someone else ends up being one of the statistics that fill out the ongoing COVID deaths reports week after week after week.

I'm seeing Makro online selling that product in 6- and 10-packs starting at 220b per can for the 6-pack set. Less per can (under 200b) for the 10-pack set. https://www.makro.pro/en/p/cf8bb2s-7513104482499

For a more detailed report on the latest weekly COVID update from the MoPH:

Just curious, as someone who regularly eats granola for breakfast, what makes you say that particular brand is "very good quality"? One of the problems I often encounter with Thai products is their nutrition information and ingredient labels often are vague and dubious at best, making it difficult to make any real judgments... And some local products don't have any nutrition labels at all.

Here's your "right"...

Yes, for a fee:

Worth noting: the above news report also cites that Taiwan has a very low uptake of the latest XBB variant COVID vaccines, even lower than in the U.S., including for its senior citizens. Specifically: "The [Taiwan] CDC said 2.805 million doses of the XBB vaccine have been administered, with 21,000 doses administered from June 17-23. The XBB vaccination rate is 11.47%, with the first and second-dose vaccination rates for those aged 65 and above 20.74% and 1.79%, respectively." [emphasis added] By comparison, the latest XBB vaccine update estimates from the U.S. say about 22% of adults have gotten the XBB vaccine, including more than 40% of senior citizens age 65 and above. https://www.cdc.gov/respiratory-viruses/data-research/dashboard/vaccination-trends-adults.html https://apnews.com/article/covid-vaccines-shots-over-65-84bd91f6c51db7bbb334bd18a07e4f3b Thailand, by comparison, has no government program to administer XBB COVID vaccines, and privately sourced XBB COVID vaccinations here are likely so few that they're not tracked or publicly reported. So unfortunately regarding Taiwan, it's not any great surprise that they're now reporting increasing numbers of COVID hospitalizations and deaths, largely among the senior citizen population there. Particularly since new research is indicating that the older COVID vaccines, now 1-2 or more years and multiple COVID variant changes later, basically aren't nowadays providing any better protection vs. being unvaccinated.

A couple of additional things to note about the above study: 1. It was funded, as clearly disclosed in the study, by Pfizer and done in conjunction with the Kaiser Permanente Southern California health system. The authors included researchers both from Kaiser and Pfizer. 2. But more pertinent to readers here, various forum members are often commenting that they had their original COVID vaccines several years ago in Thailand, and don't feel that they need any more. One of the findings that was particularly interesting on that point is this study found that the original version or 2nd generation bivalent COVID vaccines people received in past years, at this point in the pandemic, provided no statistically significant protection against COVID hospitalization vs. those who had never received any COVID vaccine. Specifically, the authors wrote: "Finally, compared with unvaccinated individuals, those who had not received an XBB vaccine of any kind but had received older versions of COVID-19 vaccines (ie, ≥1 BA.4/5 bivalent dose or ≥3 or ≥2 original wild-type doses and no variant-adapted vaccines of any kind) did not show a statistically significant reduced risk of COVID-19 outcomes, including hospital admission, during the study period. ... Thus, analogous to influenza, although older versions of COVID-19 vaccines once provided high levels of protection, the combination of waning vaccine-induced immunity and continuous SARS-CoV-2 strain evolution eventually renders prior versions of vaccines ineffective. This, in turn, warrants routine updates to COVID-19 vaccines—also like influenza—so long as SARS-CoV-2 continues to circulate and cause disease."

JAMA Internal Medicine published a study calculating the protection offered by the latest Pfizer COVID-19 XBB vaccine compared to older vaccines against COVID-associated hospitalization and emergency department (ED) or urgent care (UC) visits. ... The authors compared outcomes among those who had received an updated XBB vaccine and those who had not received an XBB vaccine of any kind, regardless of prior COVID-19 vaccination or infection history. ... 62% protection against hospitalization Compared to those who had not received an updated XBB vaccine, recipients had 62% protection against COVID-19 hospitalization (95% confidence interval [CI], 32% to 79%). Protection was 58% against ED/UC visits (95% CI, 48% to 67%). A history of vaccination with pre-XBB vaccines did not significantly reduce the risk of COVID-19 outcomes, including hospital admission, and outcomes were similar to those of unvaccinated patients. (more) https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/latest-xbb-covid-19-vaccine-offers-protection-against-hospitalization-deaths Findings In this case-control study among 2854 cases and 15 345 controls, the BNT162b2 XBB vaccine provided statistically significant additional protection against a range of COVID-19 outcomes during the early part of the 2023 to 2024 viral respiratory season. Older versions of COVID-19 vaccines offered little, if any, additional protection compared with being unvaccinated, including against COVID-19 hospital admissions, regardless of the number or type of prior doses received. ... Results Among 2854 cases and 15 345 controls (median [IQR] age, 56 [37-72] years; 10 658 [58.6%] female), adjusted estimation of effectiveness of the BNT162b2 XBB vaccine received a median of 34 days prior vs not having received an XBB vaccine of any kind was 62% (95% CI, 32%-79%) against COVID-19 hospitalization and 58% (95% CI, 48%-67%) for ED/UC visits. Compared with being unvaccinated, those who had received only older versions of COVID-19 vaccines did not show statistically significant reduced risk of COVID-19 outcomes, including hospital admission. (more) https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2820268

Jul. 3, 2024 TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Tuesday (July 2) reported 932 new severe COVID cases from June 25 - July 1, a 14% increase from the previous week. There were also 64 deaths from COVID. Individuals aged 65 and above account for 79% of the severe cases and 90% of the deaths. The CDC said the current prevalent variants, JN.1, KP.2, KP.3, and LB.1, possess immune evasion characteristics and higher transmissibility. However, current research shows they have not increased disease severity. ... The CDC said the domestic COVID outbreak is worsening and is in the epidemic phase and could plateau in mid-July. The JN. 1 variant is the most prevalent, both domestically and from overseas, accounting for 47% and 38%, respectively. (more) Taiwan News https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/news/5898112 And one week prior from the same news outlet: COVID hospitalizations in Taiwan increase 31% Over 800 hospitalizations for COVID reported last week Jun. 27, 2024 TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Severe COVID cases that required hospitalization increased by 30.9% last week, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) said on Tuesday (June 25). The CDC said 817 COVID cases required hospitalization from June 18-24, a 30.9% increase from 624 cases between June 11-17. Among last week's cases, 79% were individuals aged 65 and above. There were 40 COVID-related deaths last week, of these, 90% were aged 65 and above. (more) Taiwan News https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/news/5896139

The price for the vast amounts of COVID misinformation allowed to circulate on the internet and social media during the COVID pandemic is that vast numbers of people have become needlessly ill and many have needlessly died. Lie of the Year: Coronavirus downplay and denial December 16, 2020 A Florida taxi driver and his wife had seen enough conspiracy theories online to believe the virus was overblown, maybe even a hoax. So no masks for them. Then they got sick. She died. A college lecturer had trouble refilling her lupus drug after the president promoted it as a treatment for the new disease. A hospital nurse broke down when an ICU patient insisted his illness was nothing worse than the flu, oblivious to the silence in beds next door. Lies infected America in 2020. The very worst were not just damaging, but deadly. https://www.politifact.com/article/2020/dec/16/lie-year-coronavirus-downplay-and-denial/ New Analysis Shows Vaccines Could Have Prevented 318,000 Deaths May 13, 2022 A new analysis by researchers at Brown School of Public Health, Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, and Microsoft AI for Health shows that vaccines could have prevented at least 318,000 [U.S.] Covid-19 deaths between January 2021 and April 2022. This means that at least every second person who died from Covid-19 since vaccines became available might have been saved by getting the shot. https://globalepidemics.org/2022/05/13/new-analysis-shows-vaccines-could-have-prevented-318000-deaths/

The Bangkok Post today finally decided to dawdle along with their own mixed-message report on the latest MoPH weekly COVID update from last Monday. Their version -- official COVID deaths are down vs. past years, but new COVID hospitalizations in Thailand are at year-highs. Covid-19 mainly affecting at-risk groups ... "He said the Covid-19 case rate was again increasing and currently at its highest this year. The death rate from Covid-19 in Thailand was currently 0.04%, much lower than during the spread of the Delta variant of the virus when it averaged 2.16%. The in-hospital fatality rate was 0.7%, one-third of that during 2023. This reflected the improved overall coronavirus situation in Thailand, Dr Apichart said." https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/2822416/covid-19-mainly-affecting-at-risk-groups Of course, the reported rate of new COVID hospitalizations in Thailand right now isn't just at its highest level of this year, but instead, is at its highest level since December 2022 -- which kind of raises doubts about credulity of the general claim of "the improved overall coronavirus situation in Thailand." As shown in the MoPH graphics below, current new weekly COVID hospitalizations in Thailand are at their highest number since December 2022, and almost five times their number compared to the start of 2024. Currently hospitalized COVID patients listed in serious condition (the dark purple sections in the MoPH graphics below) also are almost five times higher now than at the start of 2024, are still higher than December 2022, and remain just below the peaks last reached in the past month and before that in fall 2022. Yes, it's good that reported COVID deaths in Thailand right now are down compared to prior years, though still four times higher than the weekly COVID deaths count at the start of 2024. But that's only telling one part of the broader COVID story that's going on here. Weekly new COVID hospitalizations in red. Weekly COVID deaths in gray. COVID patients hospitalized in serious condition in darker purple. Thru June 29, 2024 Thru Jan. 6, 2024 Thru December 17, 2022 https://ddc.moph.go.th/covid19-dashboard/?dashboard=main

Note the reference in the above headline to "duty-free on arrival." Even though the ensuing article doesn't make it clear or reinforce the point, other news reports on this topic are clear that the government is only talking about closing the duty-free shops in the Thai airport arrivals areas -- and not in the departure areas. For example: Duty-free on arrival to be scrapped at Thai airports: Cabinet The Cabinet on Tuesday confirmed that all duty-free shops in the arrivals areas of Thai airports will be closed to boost spending in domestic shops, aiming to generate up to 350 billion baht annually. https://www.nationthailand.com/news/policy/40039344 "Based on the current situation assessment, travelers entering the Kingdom through international airports can purchase duty-free goods up to 20,000 baht in total value. This has led to decreased domestic consumption and shopping." https://www.khaosodenglish.com/news/business/2024/07/02/thailand-to-suspend-arrival-duty-free-shops-to-boost-domestic-spending." Neither of the above cited articles make any mention of the outbound departures-side duty free shops. But presumably, that's why the duty free operators in the OP cited report aren't complaining, because they'll still have that probably larger part of their business undisturbed. Speaking personally, when I arrive to Thailand on an international flight, the last thing I want to do is dawdle around attempting overpriced "duty-free" shopping, and the first thing I want to do is get past the looming Immigration gauntlet and hustle my way OUT of the airport as quickly as possible.

It remains a topic of some considerable debate among people who actually value credible and evidence-based information how to best counter the massive flooding of the internet and social media with pandemic-related misinfo and garbage. COVID-19 Misinformation Persists, 4 Years After Shelter-in-Place April 1, 2024 While people’s lives are largely free of the extreme public health measures that restricted them early in the pandemic, misinformation about vaccines and conspiracy theories are still around. ... Some people falsely asserted COVID’s symptoms were associated with 5G wireless technology. Faux cures and untested treatments populated social media and political discourse. Amid uncertainty about the virus’ origins, some people proclaimed COVID didn’t exist at all. PolitiFact named “downplay and denial” about the virus its 2020 “Lie of the Year.” https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2024-04-01/four-years-after-shelter-in-place-covid-19-misinformation-persists AND NewsGuard Reports More Than 300 Vaccine-Related False Narratives Now Spreading Online 02/07/2024 Nearly four years since the outbreak of COVID-19 — and amidst a constant stream of false claims about vaccine efficacy — NewsGuard reports that there are now more than 300 vaccine-related false narratives infecting social media and online search results These are among the now more than 300 vaccine-related false narratives that NewsGuard’s healthcare information team has identified circulating on the internet, shared by 4,387 websites and other news sources and social media accounts — and counting. Two thirds of all the news and information websites that NewsGuard has rated as untrustworthy since 2018 publish healthcare misinformation. ... In fact, 67% of news sites rated as generally untrustworthy (below 60/100) by NewsGuard have been flagged for publishing health misinformation, making it one of the largest categories of misinformation we track.” https://www.newsguardtech.com/press/newsguard-reports-more-than-300-vaccine-related-false-narratives-now-spreading-online/

And then for the impact of government efforts to control the COVID pandemic in the U.S., we had this report just recently (March 2024) from academics at UCLA and the University of Colorado at Boulder via the The Brookings Institution: Study says social distancing and COVID vaccines saved 800,000 U.S. lives Before the first COVID-19 vaccine became available, Americans radically changed their behavior to avoid getting the virus by social distancing and wearing masks. New research from CU Boulder says that change, along with vaccines, saved more than 800,000 lives.

And then, it's also worth noting that the main author here -- Eran Bendavid from Stanford University -- is part of a group of conservative academics there who consistently and wrongly downplayed the COVID pandemic and opposed or doubted government efforts to control it. How wrong has Bendavid been? Well, we can look back to his March 2020 opinion article in the Wall Street Journal where he suggested the COVID pandemic in the U.S. was more likely going to kill 20,000 or 40,000 people versus killing 2 million. For the record, the current U.S. COVID death toll now stands at nearly 1.2 million and counting. So it's not like he hasn't been wrong before. Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say? Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude. By Eran Bendavid andJay Bhattacharya March 24, 2020 If it’s true that the novel coronavirus would kill millions without shelter-in-place orders and quarantines, then the extraordinary measures being carried out in cities and states around the country are surely justified. But there’s little evidence to confirm that premise—and projections of the death toll could plausibly be orders of magnitude too high. ... This does not make Covid-19 a nonissue. The daily reports from Italy and across the U.S. show real struggles and overwhelmed health systems. But a 20,000- or 40,000-death epidemic is a far less severe problem than one that kills two million. [emphasis added] Given the enormous consequences of decisions around Covid-19 response, getting clear data to guide decisions now is critical. Wall Street Journal https://archive.ph/kJjK2 As it turned out, of course, the "orders of magnitude too high" COVID death toll for the U.S. that Bendavid forecast turned out to be a whole lot closer to the truth than his own minimalist projections. https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_totaldeaths_select_00