TallGuyJohninBKK

For the time being, yes... Just like every year there's a different version of the flu circulating and each year there's a new version of the flu vaccine to protect against it. (Though COVID even now kills a lot more people than the flu...) Until something better comes along.

Good question, and the answer is, the latest JN.1 variant is a game-changer when it comes to transmission and evasion from older vaccinations. What to Know About JN.1, the Latest Omicron Variant "The older vaccines were based on SARS-CoV-2 variants that are very different from variants circulating now. That, combined with the fact that your immunity from vaccination or infection tends to drop off over time, means that you won’t get a lot of protection from COVID-19 if you are relying on the vaccines you received nearly a year ago. ... You really need the newest COVID-19 vaccine formulation to be protected from severe illness from JN.1 and other recent variants." https://publichealth.jhu.edu/2024/jn1-the-dominant-variant-in-the-covid-surge The newest monovalent XBB-oriented COVID vaccine version that was rolled out in the West in recent months since the fall, but which, AFAIK, has not yet been made available in Thailand.

The assessments in the above news reports of the current COVID surge in the U.S. being the second highest are based on estimates of COVID infections / cases, which are no longer formally tracked / reported by the U.S. CDC. However, the CDC has always tracked COVID deaths and hospitalizations since the beginning of the pandemic. Here are the long-term looks at those two other indicators comparing now with the past. The upshot: COVID cases and infections may well be very high by historical standards, but current COVID death and hospitalization rates, while rising in recent months, thus far are remaining well below those from earlier in the pandemic. According to authorities, that is likely due to a combination of different factors, including: population immunity protections from COVID vaccinations and past infections, improved treatment methods for those hospitalized with COVID, and mutations to the virus itself that have made the current variants less lethal than the worst of its predecessors. Weekly COVID deaths since the beginning of the pandemic: Weekly COVID deaths from Jan. 1, 2023 to mid-Dec. 2023: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_weeklydeaths_select_00 Weekly new COVID hospitalizations since the beginning of the pandemic: Weekly new COVID hospitalizations from Jan. 2023 to Jan. 2024: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_weeklyhospitaladmissions_select_00

Your analysis and presumptions above are flawed, because as the above news reports make clear, the WHO's latest report on COVID deaths is only based on reporting from about 50 countries out of around 200 in the world... As the WHO noted, many countries simply aren't regularly reporting their key COVID stats anymore, or rarely if ever did, such as China. So the WHO's reported data is a partial glimpse and indicator of what's going on with COVID right now... not by any means a full accounting or complete picture.

Nothing to do with fear. It's just commonsense awareness and precaution. All of the above is why: --I don't drive a car or a motorcycle while living in Thailand, especially at night, --why I use HEPA air purifiers at home, and --why since COVID I've been vaccinated and consistently worn N95 masks when outside or around others. COVID is a potential killer, especially for older folks. Thailand's roads are killers. And air pollution in Thailand is a silent killer. I take prudent measures to protect against all those risks pertinent to living in Thailand, and still manage to live a pretty normal life.

Last night, I was reading several pre-print studies that show the new monovalent COVID vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna rolled out in the West this past fall -- but apparently not yet available in Thailand -- are very effective against the new, prevailing JN.1 variant. However, one of those studies also looked at the effectiveness of last year's prior bivalent COVID vaccines against JN.1 and another recent variant, and concluded that past era vaccinations at this point are providing little protection against the latest variants like JN.1. A recent post by Johns Hopkins echoed that same point: What to Know About JN.1, the Latest Omicron Variant "The older vaccines were based on SARS-CoV-2 variants that are very different from variants circulating now. That, combined with the fact that your immunity from vaccination or infection tends to drop off over time, means that you won’t get a lot of protection from COVID-19 if you are relying on the vaccines you received nearly a year ago. ... You really need the newest COVID-19 vaccine formulation to be protected from severe illness from JN.1 and other recent variants." https://publichealth.jhu.edu/2024/jn1-the-dominant-variant-in-the-covid-surge

Seasonal COVID spike plus the impacts of the JN.1 variant? COVID-19 cases rise in Singapore, clinics face higher than usual patient loads The doctors are seeing cases stabilise, down by around 20% from December, according to a Channel News Asia report on Friday. Jan 6, 2024 "Doctors in Singapore believe the latest COVID-19 wave has peaked in the country, even as some clinics still face higher than usual patient loads, and doctors are watching out for possible surges in the coming months." https://www.cnbctv18.com/world/covid-19-cases-rise-in-singapore-clinics-face-higher-patient-loads-18733051.htm Previously from Dec. 22: "The number of new COVID-19 hospitalisations in Singapore jumped to 965 in the past week, up from 763 the previous week, with those admitted to intensive care units (ICU) going up from 23 to 32 in the same period. These were the highest numbers of new weekly hospitalisations and ICU admissions for COVID-19 patients in 2023." ... MOH's figures on Thursday also show that the average daily hospitalised cases recorded are also the highest for the year. The 560 cases are up from 350 cases the previous week and 225 the week before that. https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/covid19-surge-possible-peaked-mask-mandate-one-ye-kung-moh-4007141

Complacency Has Replaced Alarm in the Newest COVID Surge "At present, the United States is getting hammered with such illnesses, with visits to the doctor for respiratory viruses on an upward trend in recent weeks. Data from the CDC's wastewater surveillance system shows that we are in the second-biggest COVID surge of the pandemic, with the JN1 variant representing about 62% of the circulating strains of the COVID-19 virus at the moment. ... In the last week of December, nearly 35,000 Americans were hospitalized with COVID. That is a 20% increase in hospital admissions in the most recent week, CDC data shows. At the same time, almost 4% of all deaths in the U.S. were related to COVID, with the death rate up 12.5% in the most recent week. This current JN1 variant surge features the highest hospitalization numbers since nearly a year ago. On Jan. 7, 2023, there were more 44,000 hospitalizations. It’s anyone’s guess when this upward trend in hospitalizations and deaths will level off or decrease, but for now, the trend is only increasing." (more) https://www.webmd.com/covid/news/20240112/complacency-has-replaced-alarm-in-the-newest-covid-surge

Although the rate of COVID infections and cases in the U.S. may be at one of its highest peaks, the New York Times in the past week offered the perspective that, despite that, U.S. COVID hospitalizations and deaths are not hitting those same peaks. "In the week that ended on Dec. 23, hospitalizations rose by nearly 17% from the previous week. There were about 29,000 new hospital admissions, compared with 39,000 the same week last year and 61,000 in 2021. ... COVID is still claiming at least 1,200 lives per week. But that number is about one-third the toll this time last year and one-eighth that in 2021. “We are in this pretty big infection surge right now, but what’s really interesting is how hugely hospitalizations have and continue to decouple from infections,” Jetelina said." New York Times via: COVID has resurged, but scientists see a diminished threat https://www.hawaiitribune-herald.com/2024/01/04/nation-world-news/covid-has-resurged-but-scientists-see-a-diminished-threat/

The United States is in the middle of a wintertime COVID wave, driven by holiday gatherings, people spending more time inside, waning immunity from low uptake of the new COVID vaccine and a new highly infectious COVID variant, JN.1. ... Test positivity and wastewater data show that viral activity in the U.S. is higher than this time last year, with wastewater data especially rising rapidly the past several weeks. (COVID-19 deaths and hospitalizations are still lower than last year, the CDC noted.) A viral social media post based on data from the CDC is calling this surge the second-biggest COVID wave in the history of the U.S. — after the omicron surge from late 2021 to early 2022, which infected more people than even the early days of the pandemic." (more) https://news.yahoo.com/viral-social-media-post-claims-045511438.html

Transcript of Ghebreyesus' remarks: https://www.who.int/news-room/speeches/item/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing---10-january-2024 Partial excerpt: "Although 10,000 deaths a month is far less than the peak of the pandemic, this level of preventable death is not acceptable. We continue to call on governments to maintain surveillance and sequencing, and to ensure access to affordable and reliable tests, treatments and vaccines for their populations. And we continue to call on individuals to be vaccinated, to test, to wear masks where needed and to ensure crowded indoor spaces are well ventilated."

Interestingly, the WHO's last regular monthly report Dec. 22 on COVID -- covering the period Nov. 20 to December 17 -- reported only 3000+ new deaths from just 50 countries still reporting COVID deaths, and said that was a decline of 8 percent from the prior month. So given their report above of almost 10,000 new COVID deaths for the month of December, the latter part of December must have really seen a surge in new deaths. "Globally, the number of new cases increased by 52% during the 28-day period of 20 November to 17 December 2023 as compared to the previous 28-day period, with over 850 000 new cases reported. The number of new deaths decreased by 8% as compared to the previous 28-day period, with over 3000 new fatalities reported. [emphasis added]" "During the period from 13 November to 10 December 2023, over 118 000 new COVID-19 hospitalizations and over 1600 new intensive care unit (ICU) admissions have been recorded with an overall increase of 23% and 51% respectively amongst the countries reporting consistently within the current and past reporting periods." https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-epidemiological-update---22-december-2023 As they always do now, the WHO also footnoted their statistics above by noting that they only reflect a partial snapshot of the global COVID situation, as many countries have stopped regularly reporting their COVID deaths, hospitalizations, cases, etc, meaning the COVID impacts in all the other countries aren't being captured in the WHO's reports.

World Health Organization Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus' video news conference addressing global health issues, including the COVID update starting at about 10 minutes, 30 seconds into the video.

January 11, 2024 Almost 10,000 coronavirus deaths were reported in December, and admissions to hospitals and intensive care units surged, World Health Organization Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said — with data indicating that holiday gatherings fueled increased transmission of the virus. “Although covid-19 is no longer a global health emergency, the virus is still circulating, changing and killing,” Tedros said at a news conference in Geneva on Wednesday. There was a 42 percent increase in hospitalizations and a 62 percent increase in ICU admissions from the previous month. Trends are based on data reported to the WHO from fewer than 50 countries, mostly in Europe and the Americas, said Tedros, who noted that this is not the full picture. (more) https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2024/01/11/covid-deaths-holidays-world-health-organization/

January 12, 2024 "LONDON/CHICAGO Jan 12 (Reuters) - Low vaccination rates against the latest versions of COVID-19 and influenza are putting pressure on healthcare systems this winter, leading public health officials told Reuters. In the United States, several European countries, and other parts of the world, there have been reports of rising hospitalizations linked to respiratory infections in recent weeks. Death rates have also ticked up among older adults in some regions, but far below the COVID pandemic peak. ... Governments have struggled to communicate the risks still posed by COVID and the benefits of vaccination since a global public health emergency was declared over in May 2023, infectious disease experts and health officials said. Only 19.4% of U.S. adults have received this season’s COVID vaccine based on the U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and Prevention’s National Immunization Survey, despite a recommendation that all adults get an updated shot to protect against serious illness. That compares roughly with 17% of adults who got the bivalent booster in the 2022-2023 season, based on actual vaccine data reported to the CDC by states." (more) https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/who-sees-incredibly-low-covid-flu-vaccination-rates-cases-surge-2024-01-12/

Experts say severe muscle damage, mitochondrial problems and microclots may explain impact of working out "Many people with long Covid feel tired, unwell and in pain for lengthy periods after exercise, and researchers say they now know why. Experts say they have evidence that biological changes are to blame, such as severe muscle damage, mitochondrial problems and the presence of microclots in the body. ... Long Covid is thought to affect about 2 million people in the UK alone, and many experience a worsening of symptoms for weeks after a single bout of exercise." (more) https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/04/people-with-long-covid-should-avoid-intense-exercise-say-researchers

"66.5% of [U.S.] bankruptcies are caused directly by medical expenses, making it the leading cause for bankruptcy." "17% of adults with health care debt declared bankruptcy or lost their home because of it." "40% of Americans fear they won’t be able to afford health care in the upcoming year." https://www.retireguide.com/retirement-planning/risks/medical-bankruptcy-statistics/ The U.S. health care system is broken in practical terms for many Americans. The Commonwealth Fund rankings for health care among western countries that @placeholder posted above tell the story. The ACA program is at least a partial attempt at trying to make U.S. healthcare more accessible and affordable.

Not so fresh... Not so clean, not in Bangkok at this time of the year: https://aqicn.org/station/thailand/bangkok/chulalongkorn-hospital/ AND The cost of clean air in Thailand ... "Air pollution increases the risk of many non-communicable diseases, such as ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and lung cancer. In April 2022, PM2.5 concentration in Thailand's air was four times higher than the WHO annual air quality guideline value. This means the Thai population breaths in air that is too polluted, and which will affect their health. In 2016, it was estimated that over 33,000 deaths in Thailand were attributable to ambient air pollution." https://www.who.int/thailand/news/detail/08-06-2022-the-cost-of-clean-air-in-thailand

COVID vaccines saved 20M lives in 1st year, scientists say June 24, 2022 "Nearly 20 million lives were saved by COVID-19 vaccines during their first year, but even more deaths could have been prevented if international targets for the shots had been reached, researchers reported Thursday. ... The researchers used data from 185 countries to estimate that vaccines prevented 4.2 million COVID-19 deaths in India, 1.9 million in the United States, 1 million in Brazil, 631,000 in France and 507,000 in the United Kingdom." https://apnews.com/article/covid-science-health-england-54d29ae3af5c700f15d704c14ee224b5

Heart problems from vaccines are extremely rare. Heart problems from COVID itself are not Conspiracy theorists have been exaggerating the link between COVID vaccines and heart problems. Here are the facts Published July 27, 2023 ... "Martinez also pointed out that COVID infections themselves are far more likely to cause heart problems than myocarditis caused by COVID vaccines, which is an extremely rare side effect. ... The truth is that COVID infections are quite dangerous to the human heart. A study last year by the Department of Veterans Affairs found that people reinfected with COVID were twice as likely to either die or have a heart attack as people only infected once." ... "Because nothing can be designed with 100 percent safety, it's true that vaccines can sometimes cause injuries — but the side effects of COVID vaccines are extremely rare and often manageable. On the other hand, the virus itself is far more often linked to numerous conditions from diabetes, schizophrenia, Parkinson's, the condition known as "long COVID" and of course, heart problems." https://www.salon.com/2023/07/27/heart-problems-from-vaccines-are-extremely-rare-heart-problems-from-itself-are-not/

The history of vaccines in general is that any major side effect have typically surfaced within very short time periods after vaccination, as occurred with the AZ vaccine, unlike the usage of some drugs where side effects have surfaced relatively long after. And now three years after the COVID vaccines rollout, we're long past that stage. Three things to know about the long-term side effects of COVID vaccines July 06, 2021 ... "But what makes vaccine experts such as Goepfert confident that COVID vaccines are safe in the long term? We have all seen billboards and TV infomercials from law firms seeking people harmed by diet drugs or acid-reflux medicines for class-action lawsuits.... "There are several reasons, actually. Vaccines, given in one- or two-shot doses, are very different from medicines that people take every day, potentially for years. And decades of vaccine history — plus data from more than a billion people who have received COVID vaccines starting last December — provide powerful proof that there is little chance that any new dangers will emerge from COVID vaccines." https://www.uab.edu/news/health/item/12143-three-things-to-know-about-the-long-term-side-effects-of-covid-vaccines We're now up to 13+ billion COVID vaccine doses worldwide since the start of the pandemic, and nothing of the past three years of COVID vaccine use has contradicted the facts explained above.

In reality that claim stood up pretty well in reality for the vaccine's performance against the original COVID variant. The fact that subsequent mutations of COVID later made the vaccine less effective in preventing infections doesn't change that. Published online 2021 Dec 30. Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine effectiveness against Sars-Cov-2 infection: Findings from a large observational study in Israel "BNT162b2 was found effective for the total population group for infection, hospitalization and mortality, with adjusted VE of 93·0% (CI:92·6–93·4%), 93·4% (CI:91·9–94·7%) and 91·1% (CI:86·5–94·1%) respectively. VE for infection was lower for participants aged 75 and over, and for those with hypertension, diabetes and obesity. This study strengthens the evidence that the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccination is effective in preventing infection, hospitalization and mortality. ... "The results presented here measured vaccine effectiveness at a time when the British (alpha) variant was predominant in Israel. After implementing the national vaccination drive, infection rates dropped to very low levels (Leshem and Wilder-Smith, 2021), until the introduction of the delta variant in Israel." https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8717697/

The example you cited above with Pfizer was many years back (almost 15 years ago) and primarily had to do with their marketing claims involving off-label uses for some drugs -- all of that having absolutely nothing to do with the established track record of COVID vaccines.

Pfizer doesn't grant approval of its own vaccines. National governments do, and they are responsible for assessing the safety, risks and benefits of medical treatments such as vaccines. And billions of doses later with Pfizer, the established track record of benefit is pretty good. "Evidence from the more than 13 billions of vaccine doses [of all types] given worldwide shows that COVID-19 vaccines have a very good safety profile in all age groups. The benefits of the approved vaccines far outweigh the possible risks." ... "As for all medicines, reports of medical events after COVID-19 vaccination (suspected side effects) are collected and continuously evaluated by the authorities. These evaluations show that in most cases the medical events were not caused by the vaccine." ... "False and misleading information about the safety of COVID-19 vaccines on social media often exaggerates the frequency and severity of side effects. Misinformation also wrongly attributes unrelated medical events to the vaccines." --International Coalition of Medicines Regulatory Authorities (ICMRA) https://icmra.info/drupal/strategicinitiatives/vaccines/safety_statement

The AZ vaccine was never approved or EUA'd in the U.S. in the first place, so there was nothing to withdraw there. AZ was withdrawn in the U.K., because it had a very rare side effect involving blood clotting -- too rare to surface in AZ's clinical trials involving tens of thousands of people -- that began to surface after its subsequent widespread use in the U.K. and Europe. And that use was, as a result, pretty quickly suspended. And as a result, now after 3 years and 12+ billion total COVID vaccine doses later, it's the mRNA vaccines that remain in predominant and widespread use, and with an establish track record of very rare side effects that are far outweighed by the risks from COVID, according to public health authorities around the world. https://www.tga.gov.au/news/media-releases/icmra-statement-safety-covid-19-vaccines