bunuel

A small minority of terrorists could not inflict such damage armed with stones and clubs, trace the money, arms and equipment, you will find who the people behind the massacres are, and what their motivations are. IMO, some 'important persons' in neighbouring Malaysian Sultanates might well have 'the answers'...
(f.i. Do you remember that attack of a police station about 4-5 years ago, where the RTA was previously informed of, and it went very wrong indeed for the terrorists, well, from a credible source on the spot, I have heard many/most of the attackers were driving brand new motorbikes, all the same ones, were wearing the same, new, branded jogging trousers and sweat shirts, had the same, new, Nike shoes on their feet, and were armed with same, new, erm..., Thai Army issue, stolen/bought M16 rifles, isn't the picture clear enough...)

It is pretty widely accepted that Saudi arabia provide both the religious teaching as well as the funding for their activities.
 
Follow the money!

Precisely! While there may be indigenous causes for this conflict, it certainly appears that the terrorists are getting outside support. It also seems very odd that the insurgents have not made public demands for autonomy, as they did in Aceh in Sumutra, for example. Indeed, not at all clear who these insurgents are - but the problem is real, with the death toll rising . This will be the litmus test for the Thai military government, with no one to blame if things do not improve.

Should be obvious that any infrastructure improvements improve the quality of life either directly or indirectly and ultimately add to land and property valuations. Not necessarily an infrastructure improvement but gaming, casinos and resorts will have the biggest impact on property valuations in the positive sense.

Agree 100%. This would be true just about anywhere in the world. In addition, property owners in Pattaya are generally well aware that there will be a mass exodus of upscale families from Bangkok seeking a better

quality of life in a suburban milieu. Future of Pattaya is as a residential hub for managers from industrial hubs in Rayong, Laemchabang - and Bangkok, too, if a rail link makes it possible to get to Bangkok in less than an hour.

When the link is actually built is another question, entirely - but the Japanese need one for their massive

investments in this area, and they are pretty good at building railroads. For that matter, so are the Chinese!

How could they not rise? The divergence of opinion here is astonishing, frankly. As any Pattaya property owner knows,

the future of Pattaya is not tourism, but being a hub for the industrial expansion of the eastern seaboard. Many people with families want to get out of Bangkok because of quality of life issues caused by flooding, etc, and if they can get to Bangkok in less than an hour, they will come in waves. Pattaya certainly has deficiencies as a tourist destination, but the area is rich in attractions and very easy to live in for both Thais and farang alike.

This question is a no brainer!

How often such abhorrent acts occur there. Do people from all around the world wake up one morning and think to themselves "I'll go to pattaya to commit suicide" or is it just possible this place may corrupt the sense and sensibilities of humankind, time and time again...

There is, of course, a third possible explanation - that a lot of these " suicides" are not suicides at all. Far too often the Pattaya police are reminiscent of the Brazilian police who discovered the charred bodies of a man and a woman in a burnt bedroom. Premilinary investigation revealed BOTH had been shot to death. The police investigators quickly declared it a case of a lovers' quarrel resulting in a murder suicide. Aside from the obvious problems of plausibility, the fact that the dead man was the notorious PC Farias, the bag man for impeached president Collor de Mello, and a person whom many wanted dead. The police investigators did not consider these factors, and the case was closed.

Welcome to LOS and Thainess!!

2 years ago, my son and his mother visited me and my Thai wife. My son is blind, his 71 year old mother is not an experienced traveller, were separated at customs so Customs could interrogate him about his fishing gear (its his only pleasure) They kept him alone for 2 hours, and on completion of their enquires, refused to help him return to his mother. Meanwhile I was left in a state of deep concern and bewilderment at the meeting point for 3 hours plus. After asking all the authorities about the delay'

NO NEED TO SAY WHAT MY OPINION OF THAI CUSTOMS IS

Wite has been getting emails on this very issue from friends who want to move back to LOS. When we moved here 7 years ago, wife could ship household goods without any customs problems. These new regulations appear to eliminafe exemptions even for used personal goods, and would open uo a can of worms for any legitimate businessman relocating here with his family - or anyone working with an international organization, such as myself.

If LOS is going to impose tax on household goods as described, corporations or organizations will have two choices: 1) Compensate their employees for the additional expense; b)Move their offices to another country which does not have such onerous customs regulations.

Does anyone in TV know more about this? We just heard about it today, and I am trying to get details.

Cheers!

Not time to play the blame game. The problem is very real, because military government has been sending

out very mixed signals on this issue. Thai economy needs the Cambodian labor NOW, so this is not the

time to send them en masse back to Cambodia. Military government needs to win confidence of Cambodians, who were clearly afraid, rightly or wrongly.

Long term, Thai immigration could use some reforms. Agree completely with posters who ask why it is not possible for long term resident farangs who are good citizens and contributing members of the economy to buy 1 rai of land and a house.

That would be good for Thailand, since , like most countries, Thailand needs the foreign brains and skills!

Thais are blustering and puffing about immigration and illegal aliens.

And the PTP government before this just lifted the carpet, swept it underneath and ignored it. So did the many governments before them.

Are you saying that it all the fault of the Army in 6 weeks?

While the US breaks and bends every conceivable moral code there is, it arrogantly putting the squeeze on Thailand....... As an American, I resent very much the antics of the US government. Of course, I don't condone the shady things that ocurr in Thailand, but the US would be well advised to clean up its own act.

Being American doesn't make your point any more valid or interesting.

If Thailand wants to play the international economy game, Thailand needs to play by the rules or face trouble.

The USA wears the pants in this economic relationship. If Thailand was so confident in its ability to exist without any significant economic ties to the USA, surely, knowing the general arrogance of the Thai elite, they would simply have cut off economic ties.

So, your sentiment is a bit naive, I fear.

The USA and Japan have more or less made Thailand the 'recently industrialized' country it is today.

Thailand has done little of that significance for any country.

Thailand is the baby. USA and Japan are momma and dadda.

Excellent post about the realities of international geopolitics. While the Cold War ended over two decades ago, strategic alliances remain in place, and are particularly relevant here in East Asia. When Japan and the US politely ask a junior partner to cease and desist, they expect to be heard. If the junior partner chooses not to listen, the senior partners have ways of getting their attention. This is but one of them. LOS can expect a tsunami of international unpleasantries in the near future, as senior partners are not fooled by the threat of a Pivot to Peking for one second. Some posters seem to think LOS dwells in a time and space of its own design, as some Thais would have us believe. I have some news for them: it does not. This is not a question of Western or American hypocrisy, which we all know exists - what is going on is a movement towards universal ostracism of LOS for a host of reasons - some justified, some possibly not.

The real problem is the stubborn refusal of LOS authorities even to acknowledge there is such a trend - as they say, Denial is not a river in Egypt!

However, officials said Thailand would continue to improve its methods in preventing and suppressing human trafficking.

Continue to improve ??

I must miss something here, but if you're downgrade on every revision, doesn't that mean you've never STARTED to improve ?

Maybe the honorable gentleman can produce a list of arrests and convictions....

If will be a cold day in hell when we start to see commanders' heads rolling for any trangression, much less for human trafficking. Professional loyalty trumps transparency in the armies of the world- especially when

they are running the government.

Anyone aware of any army anywhere which has investigated itself, feel free to refute this axiom!

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

Of course! Everybody is happy that Yingluck can't screw up this country any more....

Don't be a dope.It's just the Ambassador being diplomatic - he doesn't really say anything, just politely acknowledges there is a new government in Thailand.

The true Japanese position is set out in its Ministry of Foreign Affairs statement:

http://www.mofa.go.jp/press/release/press4e_000285.html

For those with a knowledge of the soft approach associated with Japanese diplomacy, it will be apparent that this is a very strong criticism indeed - certainly in line with that of Australia,the US, the EU etc.

Like China, and other Asian countries, Japan tends to think long term. Here is former Japanese Defense Minister Yuriko Koike's take on the strategic issues involved in LOS:

China Lurking in Background of Thailand's Crisis - The American ...

www.the-american-interest.com/.../china-lurking-in-background-of-thailan...

Jan 17, 2014 - Writing at Project Syndicate, Yuriko Koike, Japan's former Defense Minister ... former Defense Minister Yuriko Koike Who Lost Thailand article, ...

You mean the "low-end Chinese" will drive away the few left that the Russians have not driven away?

The absence of ANY tourism development strategy for LOS has been evident for years. Perhaps the generals now in charge will learn from their Turkish colleagues that different nationalites have different interests as tourists, and that they often do not mix well. Met with a Turkish general two decades ago while doing an article on Turkish tourism development, and he showed me how the English, the French and the Germans were all funneled into different areas which offered activities they each like. This is essential to positive tourism development, and helps avoid scenarios where one grouo drives away another. In their frantic search for inflated numbers, TOT has failed to distinguish between Hi-End and Low-End markets, and thus has

succeeded in driving away the Hi-End market. And since it looks like the Chinese are becoming more influential in Thailand, operators will have to start learning Mandarin!

No shit? Little late now. You should have done your homework before. Now all the quality high end customers or most of them are gone and will never come back. Try charging the Chinese double for everything. Dosent work does it?.....No repair for this damage accept an exchange rate, may double what it is now.You will have to buy them back..........lol.....

The infestation of violent 7% minority driven red shirt fanatics in mainstream society has ceased and the silencing of their accused terrorist leaders will ensure the remaining 93% of the population (apart from the South) can live in peace and harmony which the majority have yearned for years. Be assured the "peace index" will rise now the DRT are in control and have stopped the violence.

Keep drinking that yellow Kool-Aid!

the trouble is/was these cheap knock off tablets provided by PTP didn't bring the kids into the 21st century in the first place Prem. As I said in an earlier post, in theory the idea of all school children been provided with modern educational tools to improve their learning experience is a noble one but unfortunately the whole scheme went pear shaped in it's implementation by PTP ( No Surprise there ). I kinda hope the next Govt reactivates this scheme and successfully provides the students with effective tablets.

I agree. Nothing wrong with the idea itself just the implementation. Same with the rice subsidy. At least the PTP was trying to improve things. Both schemes had merit but as we all know it is very difficult regulate such things. Neither scheme was designed just as a vehicle for corruption there are plenty of those already so no need for more. Instead they were an attempt to improve the lot of the disadvantaged and recently disenfranchised. Pre Taksin no government ever gave a thought for this section of society so well done to him for at least making them politically relevant.

The fact that both schemes have been cancelled does indeed support PREM-R's position. Why cancel them when the boss could just order that they be cleanly implemented?

"Same with the rice subsidy. At least the PTP was trying to improve things. Both schemes had merit"

Oh please! Somo, as Mckenroe once said to the referee, "You cannot be serious!" .... PTP improving things is an assimilation to new quantum physics where 1 + 1 = -3 (-3 being the 2 plus all the money gone )

So tell me what better initiatives did the democrats prior to Taksin implement for the benefit of the poor. They had all the money and opportunity but did nothing at all!!!

They didn't even try! It's all very well criticizing those who have tried to help and seen their efforts screwed up but it is more important to criticize those who never lifted a finger to try and help yet you want thoes very same eople back in power for god knows what reason.

Until Taksin came along no government gave a stuff for the poor of Isaan but you still think they are a better alternative. Why? It is well established that they were just as corrupt if not more so and certainly heartless. They think the poor and uneducated should not have a vote but you support them. Tell me one good thing they have done for the people of Thailand.

As a former technological Luddite who became a digital media producer, I would say this appears to be a classic case of throwing the baby out with the bathwater. Just about everyehere in the world today, young people need to become digitally literate, and educators around the world recognize that the only way to do this is to give the kids early access to digital technology. Those of us who grew up in the pre-cybernetic era cannot just give the old " when I was your age, I walked to school ten miles a day in the snow speech" to

today's digital generation. Am well aware of the deficiencies of the Thai education system. In my view, it would have benefitted greatly from European colonial management, since I found the curriculum more sophisticated in former Central African colonies. However, short of overhauling the entire educational system from top to bottom and replacing it with a good Asian model like that of Japan or Singapore, it is my humble opinion that tablets in some form would be a step in a positive direction . That is, on the assumption that forward, rather than backwards, is positive.

Only a majority?? Would have exoected 110% like a Sadaam Hussein election. Presume those uncultivated enough to be unhappy are now in Happiness Education Camps, along with the other mentaly disable dissenters!!

Poll shows over 93 percent of the people are happy with NCPOs performance

BANGKOK: -- 93.09 percent of respondents to an opinion poll are satisfied with the performance of the National Council for Peace and Order in putting an end to the protests by rival political groups.

The end of the protests is one of the ten happiness that the people feel they have received from the NCPO for the past three weeks, according to the Suan Dusit Poll of the Ratchabhat Universitys Suan Dusit campus.

The pollster asked for the opinions of 1,634 individuals during June 10-14 regarding the ten happiness that they feel they have received from the junta. The followings are results of the poll:

87.12 percent said they could return to work as usual as the situation has returned to normal.

85.99 percent admitted that the NCPOs policy to cut cost of living has slowed down the prices of petrol and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG)

84.29 percent said rice farmers have received their overdue payments from rice pledging scheme.

80.24 percent said NCPOs economic policy has stimulated trade and investment.

77.32 percent said they felt there is a real attempt to deal with corruption problem.

73.53 percent felt the NCPO was determined to do the jobs they announced.

73.14 percent said they felt they are safer with the presence of the military to keep peace and order.

71.96 percent said the military has get tough with criminal activities such as drug trafficking, illegal firearms possession and robbery.

71.31 percent said they were happy with the lifting of the curfew, the broadcast of all World Cup soccer matches on free TV and free show of the movie, the Legend of King Naresuan 5.

Source: http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/nbts-news-director-removed-airing-anti-coup-news/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=nbts-news-director-removed-airing-anti-coup-news

-- Thai PBS 2014-06-15

A famous college prep school in the US where there were no discussions, and everything was taught by rote?While I am well aware there is a great diversity in American prep schools, my 4 years at Phillips Exeter Academy ( 1963-67) was a never ending series of discussions and demands for critical thinking. Granted, some teachers liiked me, and others didn't, and that reality was often reflected in my final grades.

I was not a happy camper at a boys boarding school in the New Hampshire woods, but we certainly learned how to work hard - those that didn't often failed, and were asked to leave. There was also intense competition for grades, and zero tolerance for cheating. Anyone caught cheating was expelled, period.

It has been my experience as a university professor in New York that foreign students like modern American university teaching methods because they are often more innovative than what they had at home. Universities in America - the best ones - are global insitutions which attract paying students from around the world. And,

just like Exeter, they tend to get the best students.

And teachers, because good teachers like to teach at places where they are appreciated, and given some latitude. No one expects to get rich as a teacher - it is all about satisfaction and self-respect,

After six months teaching at a Thai university of sone repute, I quit because I would have lost all my self-respect as I realized I was party to a completelty frauduient education system only interested in perpetuatioh of artifice and appearances, and with no interest in the pursuit of knowledge.

While I have enjoyed my experience studyiing and teaching in some Asian systems, like the Japanese and

Singaporean, the Thai educatiohal system merits demolition and reconstruction from scratch. Like much of

Thailand, it is stuck in a 19th century rut.

quote name="thailiketoo" post="7968452" timestamp="1402664468"]

Why always assume that Western methods are best for people from the East? Thai people need to learn how to survive and be successful in Thai society...The arrogance of 'educated' people from the West is mindboggling. Despite years of been trained in 'critical thought' Westerners always assume they know what is best for 'developing countries'...

It seems you've missed the point in your defensiveness over the East not being as advanced as the West. China is very rapidly trying to convert its education system to resemble the West's. It's Rote Learning vs. teaching Critical Thinking. Why do you think every Thai parent, who can afford to, wants their child 'Western' educated (either International school or sent to Western country)? Even if there were no Western' teaching style, the Rote Learning employed in Thailand teaches the children to be good little 'serfs' who never question authority (teachers) and only learn enough to be low-level employees. They will never invent anything on their on as the creativity has been beaten out of them. Diversity of ideas in the classroom is not tolerated, etc. Are you really defending the education system in Thailand? It's got nothing to do with arrogance as, objectively, the Western methods are far superior to Rote Learning. Duh!

I went to private schools in the USA till I got to college. Everything was rote learning till I got to college. In college I can only remember one course that was not rote learning. Whenever I did not agree with the instructor I flunked. When it was a question of the instructors opinion being correct or mine being correct; mine got me an F.

I was born in 1952 and went to a rural school until grade 10 when I transferred to a small town high school. Beginning in grade 4, excepting for mathematics, the sciences and grammar, lively discussions were encouraged. We were questioned more than lectured to. The only teachers who weren't keen to discuss were the ones who were not prepared in the subject matter. I'm sorry you got Unionized teachers who don't need to perform to earn their salary. I am aware the the educations system in the US has greatly deteriorated since my school days. I have continued with life-long self education because I had teachers who inspired me to learn. IMO, one of the reasons for he decline of the US is the decline of its education system.

"The mediocre teacher tells,

the good teacher explains,

the superior teacher demonstrates,

the great teacher inspires"

William Arthur Ward

I went to a famous college prep school and a prestigious 200 year old university. I graduated from college when you were about 10 years old.

Precisely.

Easier to blame the students than to ask yourself what you are doing wrong as an educator,

Have taught university level students from many Asian countries in New York, and the Japanese, Chinese, Koreans and Singaporeans all had good study habits that they had learned in their home countries. All I had to do was to avoid being boring, and they did the rest. It was very satisfying for me, because they were

enthusiastic and appreciative.

Thailand, alas, is at the other end of the academic spectrum, and it has nothing to do with the students, who are thr victims of an anachronistic academic system based on the pre-Enlightenment method of learning by rote. Students were not encouraged to ask questions, discuss or think independently.

Now, I can imagine some smug Thai educational bureaucrat asking what do these qualities have to do

with learning English. My answer would be " EVERYTHING!"

Students will only master a language if it is a tool for self-expression and communication. If you have nothing to say or express, you won't learn a damned thing.

Its a shame that this is the case with Thailand, the English Language has been an International Language for a very long time.

And to see that the Neighbouring countries like Malaysia, Myanmar and Vietnam have very high scores, would indicate that the problem lies in the

Thai culture and the Thai education system in general.

Anyone with any knowledge of the global tourism industry knows it takes a long tine for any destination to rebound after a blizzard of bad publicity like the one that has hit LOS over the past 6 months. Risk-averse foreign travel agents will send their clients elsewhere until they are sure things are okay - their professional reputations are at stake. Simultaneously, they have seen enough of the world to know that Thai organzations and associations need to parrot the party line for their own survival, and will ignore statements of this kind.

The tourism industry is global, and the market is not Thai, but international. The military rulers complain that the rest of the world

" does not understand " LOS whenever they are critical; they may be right, but understanding is a two-way street. If the Thai tourism industry seeks to attract the international market, the current government needs to better understand the rest of the world. The fact is that most tourists know little about Thailand, nor do they want to get involved with local politics while on vacation. However,

tourists are generally risk-averse; they will stay away from destinations with image problems and take their business elsewhere,

since there are a lot of other wonderful destinations to chose from. In short, Thailand has a serious public relations problem, and

solving it will require retaining the services of a professional international public relations firm, at the very least.

Other countries - like South Africa, Jamaica and Mexico - do this and are able to sustain healthy flow of foreign tourists, despite problems on the ground, like crime, which are far worse than anything in LOS. Image is everything!

A "fam trip" is a travel industry junket in which foreign travel agents and writers from the travel trade media are invited to a destination and then wined, dined and otherwise induced to improve the image of the destination in question. Destinations with good reputations and healthy advertising budgets don't really need fam trips, but may use them anyway. The destinations that need fam trios are the ones that have image problems due to wars, epidemics, crime, natural disasters and political upheavels

Take South Africa - a fabulous destination, with much to offer, but also one with a major crime problem, and also the handicap of being in a bad neighborhood - Africa. Geographically challenged tourists will hear about an Ebola epidemic in the Congo and cancel their trip to South Africa, for example. The travel writer's job is to educate the travek industry about the realities of a given destination - but without being critical,since he or she is a guest. My own specialty as a travel writer was to go to destinations in Latin America and Africa that Americans were afraid to go - cool places like Brazil, Haiti, Central America and all of Africa. I always had a great time, and enjoyed the adventure. Sometimes the Tourism Minister of a country would ask me for advice on which US market to focus on, because the US market is huge and very diverse. I would try to be as helpful as possible by being honest regarding the strengths and weaknesses of the destination in private - and then write as flattering an article as I could.

The problem with Thailand is that the decision makers never ask, and are not interested in hearing anyone else's opinion, and now it is worse than ever. No one is permitted to say anything critical about the junta or the coup, so it is impossible to discuss the effect it is having on tourism. However, anyone who pays attention to the foreign press is well aware of the massive bad publicity recently; some in Bangkok dismiss all the bad media coverage as being due to a lack of " understanding of Thainess" on the part of BBC, CNN, WSJ, NY Times, THE ECONOMIST, the FT , and some even say that the exiled former PM Mr. T has "bought" the major foreign media organizations. This is nonsense, and hardly constructive.

If Thailand wishes to have a sustainable tourism industry, the country will have to learn to treat foreign journalists with respect, and not induldge in ad hominem attacks whenever there is criticism. The bottom line is that there are many other destinations interested in desirable up-market Western tourists, and these tourists will go elsewhere when they feel unappreciated or even unwanted because rude Thais say vile things about Secretary Kerry or Ambassador Kenny, or whomever.

"The plan starts with a fam trip bringing about 1,000 travel and blog writers from around the world to Thailand to see the situation here for themselves."

Whats a 'fam trip'. I thought it said farm at first, 1000 writers on a farm trip, sounds like hell to me.

Denial is not a river in Egypt Department...

Every country is entitled to its myths and delusions, I suppose, but any other country which had been exposed to the past two weeks of extremely negative mainstream international media coverage would

find its tourism industry in deep trouble. Thais can ramble on all they want about " Thainess " and

" their internal affairs", but all that is irrelevant to the tourist who wants a trouble free vacation. If the

average risk-averse tourist sees a potential problem, he or she will go elsewhere - and there are

a lot of other places in the world to go to. In this region, Bali, Philippines, Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia

all have attractions, though I must confess to a soft spot for Timor Leste!

All this bucket list survey shows is that there is a reservoir of good will for LOS, but, as anyone in fhe

tourism business knows, that reservoir can run dry in a hurry...

It was of course before the coup and junta. And before martial law and curfew. And before 70 countries recommended their citizens NOT to go to Thailand

What would a Govt in exile be able to accomplish?

It depends on whether the government in exile gets international recognition and support. For example, should the UN/ASEAN recognize the government in exile, only its administration of the nation will be recognized. That might mean that coup and post-coup trade agreements, court actions, diplomacy, laws, etc. will not be recognized by the foreign community. Any international negotiations regarding Thailand would go through the government in exile and the Thailand domestic government would be ignored.

At the extreme, foreign embassies in Thailand might close and any Thailand embassies that do not recognize the government in exile may be evicted. Given some nations favor chaos in the internal affairs of other countries for their own national agendas, a Thailand government in exile might serve political leverage and concessions from the coup and post-coup government.

At this juncture it's too soon to judge the effectiveness of a Thai government in exile. If the Junta moves quickly to restore the constitution with attendent reforms, and a fair and open electroral system to re-establish a democratic process to the people, a government in exile would have little impact. But if the Junta significantly delays restoration of democracy, ie., 2 or more years, it could lend more legitimacy to the government in exile.

A case in point. After the elected President Morsi granted himself unlimited powers to "protect" the nation, and the power to legislate without judicial oversight or review of his acts), the Egyptian military overthrew the government on July 3, 2013 and suspended the constitution and appointed a national leader. New elections were announced in March 2014 to be held the end of May 2014. Given a timespan of less than one year from coup to new elections, it doesn't seem the international community has reacted too harshly with the coup leadership, albeit reduction in foreign aid and "stern warnings" for restoration of democracy.

So if the Thai military coup leaders follow a similar path to maintain nonviolent national civility and produce a constitution that does not detract from a fair and open democratic process, then there is a likelyhood of muted international criticism if it announces new elections within a year of its coup. Failure by the military coup leaders to follow that path may result in greater legitimacy to the government in exile and a national disaster for the Thai people.

Very cogent post! Many thanks - many do not understand distinction made between Egypt and Thailand, and this post explains that distinction superbly!

For an example closer to home, the Asian island nation of Timor Leste survived 25 years of brutal Indonesian military occupation to become Asia's newest nation in May of 2002. During the occupation, Nobel Peace prize winner Jose Ramos Horta led the government in exile, while Xanana Gusmao led an actjve guerilla resistance on the ground against the TNI, the Indonesian army. Given the American and Australian backing for Indonesia, Timor Leste appeared like a lost cause until the Asian economic collapse of 1997 brought down the Suharto dictatorship with a thud. The new Indonesian government , desoerate for cash, made a deal with former colonial power Portugal and the EU to allow a referendum in TL run by the UN on independence in exchange for financial assistance. Ramos Horta represented TL at these negotiations - Xanana Gusmao was in an Indonesian jail. The referendum on East Timorese independence was held in 1999, and, in soite of wide spread attemots at violent voter intimidation, the East Timorese voted 78.5 % for independence. The TNI, after burning some 80 % of the country to the ground, left, and a UN administration called UNTAET was created to run the country for 2 years until complete independence in 2002. Jose Ramos Horta was elected

Prime Minister, and Xanana Gusmao President in TL's first elections. 12 years later, TL remains a fairly stable democracy, with Mr. Gusmao as Prime Minister. Mr. Ramos Horta is now Special Representative for the UN Secretary General in the African country of Guinea Bissau.

While Timor Leste is clearly very different from Thailand, the one lesson one can draw here is that history can be full of surprises. After the Indonesian invasion and annexation of the former Portuguese colony in 1975, most observers thought TL would suffer the same fate as the former Dutch New Guinea, annexed by the Indonesians in the early 1960's.

The same might be said about the peaceful end of apartheid in South Africa - which also came as a big

surprise to many - as did the fall of the Berlin Wall.

Bottom line is that one needs to keep an open mind, because you never know!

uote name="Diplomatico" post="7879994" timestamp="1400979460"]

What would a Govt in exile be able to accomplish? Other than keeping the hate fires burning brightly.

I think the objective is that - in the case of international intervention - the government in exile would be allowed to return to power if the junta were overthrown. Memory may fail me but I think that's happened in other countries with "governments in exile". (No, I can't provide an example but I think it's occurred, historically speaking.)

Iran!!

Ah, yes. Couple of countries on the African continent too, methinks.

The handwriting has been on the wall for some time now - that is, for anyone who pays attention to

these things. Love Thailand, but Thai politics are not my business, so time to leave. LOS has been

sweet, and have no complaints - far more congenial than a lot of other places in the world!

quote name="NotMyUsualid" post="7856821" timestamp="1400644033"]

I am on a very popular island right now. It's literally a ghost town. Incredible. Bands playing to empty venues. Not a person there enjoying the music. I feel sorry for the locals.

Indeed - I have been called a fool for saying this would happen too. And much sooner than many may think possible.

I've seen some mock 'empty threats' of leaving LOS, and I'm putting my money where my mouth is.

I'm in KL for a visa to go back one more time, so I may get my belongings, and then I am off...

I think I'll check back in with this site for entertainment purposes, from time to time in the next couple of years.

And I'll of course add my visa experience to your blog when I find out the results of that.

Ladies and gents, there are other hot countries to explore (some with no ridiculous property / aircraft ownership laws too), also with nice beaches... Just a shame there is not a national sport of Muay Thai there also (the original reason for my coming to LOS).

This visa & military mess is going to hit the Thai everyday people so bad - Patong was a joke last Sat night. Not been in a year and it was a shadow of its former self, in terms of numbers of people.

And it is going to get much worse.

Bye 'yall...