What Oz shares would you buy in the event of a market crash?

[AlexRich]

If the big miners get cheap, like BHP, they are worth looking at. They’ll survive a downturn and soar with fast economic growth down the line. Not a short term trade.

[wordchild]

9 hours ago, Susco said:

Or maybe you missing something?

 

I'm sure Aussie investors also weren't born yesterday and will have noticed the same discount, so if it was a real opportunity I believe they would now be dumping their Aussie shares, and replacing them with London traded ones.

 

Since you also say that the price discount is not just for 1 company but at least 2, I can't get rid of the feeling that something is missing.

https://www.afr.com/wealth/investing/australian-investors-will-lose-from-bhp-restructure-20180222-h0wh74       This is a pretty good summary, though you may need to register to read

The article suggests that the average discount of the UK listed shares ,over several years, has been 4 AUD, with a high of 8AUD. (i prefer to look at it in percentage terms)

on Friday , in Sydney,  BHP closed at 29 while in London the closing price was 1187 in pounds so c 23.9 in OZ dollars. so the discount is currently just over 5 AUD or 18%. The discount of the London listed stock has lessened slightly from the 20% that it was trading at for the prior few days. 

Based also on Fridays closing prices in both markets Rio London closed at a 17.4% discount to the OZ closing price. The discount here has also tightened a little.

Edited March 28, 2020 by wordchild

[AussieBob18]

4 hours ago, mshs said:

These top 10 bought in proportion to their market-cap yields 6.64%.  Obviously, the dividends are going to be slashed as a result of the Wuhan virus, which the market has already discounted.  So, perversely, when there is a cut in the dividend, the stock will go up and with news of lay-offs.

 

CBA	Commonwealth Bank
BHP	BHP Billiton Ltd
WBC	Westpac Banking Corp
CSL	CSL Ltd
ANZ	ANZ Banking Group Ltd
NAB	National Aust. Bank
WES	Wesfarmers Ltd
MQG	Macquarie Group Ltd
WOW	Woolworths Group Ltd
TLS	Telstra Corporation

 

I agree that is the best long term list.

However, the banks will be the first and biggest - sell a percentage at +10 and +20 and +30 - hold rest long term.

BHP is still very dependent upon overseas growth - especially China/Japan/Korea - but USA is growing - not as many.

The rest are much about domestic consumption - not so many (shares) and play the long game with them.

Got a $million lying around? I sure wish I did. How the rich get richer - they buy in the recessions and sell in the bubbles.

 

[AussieBob18]

10 hours ago, pdtokyo said:

Cochlear ... they were very good for me and i don't mind telling you now because i simply cannot afford to get back into them ...

They just suffered a triple-whammy ... temporarily locked out of China market, lost a US lawsuit bigtime and now elective surgery in Oz cancelled until further notice (so no implant ops being done). Soon everywhere i guess.

No doubt Cochlear will go into hibernation ... but China LOVES this company, they have friends in the CCP who encouraged them into China back in the day, kids are still being born so the demand for the product builds every day they are asleep, they have a strong development pipeline (bionic eye is a biggy) which will no doubt be put on steroids during the implant freeze and (my guess) is their insurers ... if they survive ... will cough up for some part of the US debacle (maybe even an appeal is possible, i'm not up to speed on that). 

Perhaps but perhaps not - I would be cautious.  The US lawsuit was bad and unless they appeal and win they are out of that market (huge costs to do so). China loved all young and naive companies in the west with great ideas - they then copy and steal the technology while they manufacture it cheaply for the western markets - and they then sell the stolen tech to their own market - and they are now exporting to SEAsia - soon the world (was their plan).  I would be cautious about all companies that rely on cheap Chinese manufacturing - that is about to change with US and EU very likely to impose/increase tarrifs on China manufactured products after the virus issue - and many others.  

[Matthew2027]

_{ASX CODE        IVC  & PFP}

[1FinickyOne]

a market crash is not necessarily a one day event and the next day fine... the decline can go on for quite a while and recovery can be slow...

 

that said, after you have picked the bottom... avoiding all the dead cats... I would go with companies whose earnings were good in spite of the recession/depression/crash that dragged down all of the issues irregardless... 

[Brickbat]

Buy stocks hardest hit with low debt. VAP is Vanguards REIT that owns the Top Ten Real Estate funds in Australia. 
cant go past Macquarie bank and either BHP or FMG . 
 

I think there will be a bigger dump later as the numbers come rolling out. Spread your buying.

[wombat]

as old mate said to me....don't put money in the bank, buy the bank. 
fully franked, how can you go wrong.

[Octpob]

On 3/28/2020 at 9:41 PM, ianezy0 said:

I bought a lot of CSL for $45 in 2010. Sold for a $4 PS profit a year later. Then...bang....look what happened ???????????????? the emojis are not me laughing, but crying!

Yeah, I know what you mean, I bought at $16 and sold at $30 many years ago...been kicking myself since!

[WhereIsMyRyeBread]

you may want to check this blog if you havent already, been using it for years  https://hotcopper.com.au/

[Mick501]

Most companies have dropped 30-40% in the last two months.  Not sure how far they have to drop u til it qualifies as a crash.  Plenty seem better than fair value at the moment assuming in a year or so they will return to normal profitability.  Bank dividend returns are all wel over 10% at current prices, and even if dividends re cut (which is likely), they'll still represent impressive long term holds.

[Kurtf]

I'd buy gold mining stocks. 

[CygnusX1]

3 hours ago, wombat said:

as old mate said to me....don't put money in the bank, buy the bank. 
fully franked, how can you go wrong.

Will the imputation credits scheme still exist in future after the Govt has to start paying for the colossal stimulus package?

[MarleyMarl]

The market already crashed, and probably not done despite the rallies due to the announced stimulus packages in Aus and last week US. I've been buying, staggered approach, holding Bank's and WPL. Sold some of my more risky shares in today's rally, ALG 10% profit, & SGR 7.5% profit.

 

I will buy more soon.

 

[snawa]

On 3/28/2020 at 6:44 PM, Lacessit said:

AVJ

 

On 3/28/2020 at 6:44 PM, Lacessit said:

My shopping list ( cashed up presently ) is ANZ, AVJ, BHP, PTM, TLS, WES, and WPL. You can thank me later, with a small gratuity.

Interesting. No one's mentioned Coles, one of the few well up on last year, but still just a 2pc return. As a West Australian, I've always loved mining. RRL is still a great gold stock with a nice dividend. KCN Kingsgate was Thailand's great Aussie gold mine. Very quiet since the Thai Govt takeover and legal proceedings. Temptation for Uncle Tu's cronies to start it up again must be intense.

[Clive]

AVL. vanadium is going to be the key component for mass storage flow batteries.