Thailand Hits Bottom Of Regional Economies

[Dakhar]

TG,

I can understand your desire to emphasize certain positive things that are going on in the kingdom, but, with all do respect, you seem to do it to the point of turning a blind eye to many of the negative things which do exist/are occuring here.

I also don't think that it is fair to say that people who disagree with your opinion and present certain evidence to dispute your opinion are necessarily pompous,stupid,disrespectful, or idiot farangs(although some actually may be). By doing so, you end up lowering the tenor of the discourse in the discussion.

In the end, I really don't know you so maybe this comment is unjustified.

It has got to be hard for TG. Lets do a little psycho analyssis here. His English is awesome, he is away from home, getting an Edu. in the US. So I would venture to say, he has some level of intellegence and from a family with a lot of money. He is used to getting his way, and pushing people around.

Life in America would be difficult for a forieng person like this. The playing field is more level, not level mind you but more level. If you try to push too hard in America, people do not mind squashing you flat. TG is Thai, so he is probably small in stature, he has no real physical presence, so he can not dominant via this. So his only option to show his authority is to used whit, and to toss money around.

He misses home greatly. Home is a place of refuge, home is what it is to a great many of us, and home also is were he can "draw his power." He misses his girl friend, a woman that loves him dispite his inadequeces, physical, emotional etc. We have all have them, mine is for sure spelling!

So any how, he comes to this web site and finds falangs here bashing away at his country, that he misses soo very much. It has got to be hard. This site also reminds him that no matter how hard he tries, perfect English, wealth etc... falangs have views of Thais, that are strongly ingrained, and wrong or right, they probably will never change.

Does the above make TG's actions and insults OK.... Not in my book, but I can understand his actions. He is hurt and he is crying out.

[Tilokarat]

I am a historian, not an economist, but I wonder if anyone has any idea of the likely impact on the Thai economy of the recent free trade agreement signed between Thailand and Japan? One could predict that this agreement might bolster the Thai economy. Is Japan signing these agreements with other Asian countries? Is it an attempt to counter China's rise in the region? Owing to the lack of a military aspect to the agreement, it is not like the old Japanese Co-Prosperity Sphere...or is it?

[ThaiGoon]

TG,

I can understand your desire to emphasize certain positive things that are going on in the kingdom, but, with all do respect, you seem to do it to the point of turning a blind eye to many of the negative things which do exist/are occuring here.

I also don't think that it is fair to say that people who disagree with your opinion and present certain evidence to dispute your opinion are necessarily pompous,stupid,disrespectful, or idiot farangs(although some actually may be). By doing so, you end up lowering the tenor of the discourse in the discussion.

In the end, I really don't know you so maybe this comment is unjustified.

I never turned a blind eye to negative things about Thailand. I listened to them carefully especially when they came from intelligent, fair-minded, reasonable and constructive foreigners. I actually liked listenning to them. That's what drew me to the forum in the first place. But obviously this is an open internet forum. So not all farangs on here can be intelligent, fair-minded, reasonable and constructive. And it's those with cynical myopic views of Thailand and Thai people whom I often found despicable, pompous and disrespectful (among other things.) It's their "facts" that I felt needed to be corrected. And let me say it again that I do respect a lot of people on here. They were never the ones whom my comments were directed at.

Anyway here's to Dakhar.

Edited April 24, 2007 by ThaiGoon

[jumnien]

Plenty of Thais have become successful through hard work and honesty. It's really disrespectful to those people for some farang idiot to say things like this.

1, That is possibly the first and last times you will see that sentence!

2. Four people does not amount to "plenty"

Thaigoon is lucky he's Thai.

Anyone using the term "Thai idiot" as often as he uses it to describe farangs would have been sent packing long ago.

Have to agree with Thaigoon on this one. The inference that there are only four Thais in Thailand that are successful through hard work and honesty is unequivocably dispicable and should be given condemnation by all - whether one likes Thailand or not. It speaks clearly of the character of the man who wrote it. The same would be said if the insult that only four Italians, Irishmen, Swedes, etc. became successful through hard work and honesty. It would reek of ignorance and malice.

In every corner of Thailand there are successful, honest and hard working people that are impossible not to meet up with if one ventures about. And yes, there are those of less character as well, just like everywhere else in the world.

Edited April 24, 2007 by mdeland

[ThaiGoon]

I am a historian, not an economist, but I wonder if anyone has any idea of the likely impact on the Thai economy of the recent free trade agreement signed between Thailand and Japan? One could predict that this agreement might bolster the Thai economy. Is Japan signing these agreements with other Asian countries? Is it an attempt to counter China's rise in the region? Owing to the lack of a military aspect to the agreement, it is not like the old Japanese Co-Prosperity Sphere...or is it?

If my memory serves me right, I think Japan has already signed the same kind of agreement with Indonesia and the Philippines (not so sure about Malaysia.) That's one of the reasons why the current gov't rushed to sign the agreement I think. As for other questions you asked, I don't really know the answers. But this could be one of the repercussions of the FTA on Thailand:

20 companies plan to invest

[ThaiGoon]

Plenty of Thais have become successful through hard work and honesty. It's really disrespectful to those people for some farang idiot to say things like this.

1, That is possibly the first and last times you will see that sentence!

2. Four people does not amount to "plenty"

Thaigoon is lucky he's Thai.

Anyone using the term "Thai idiot" as often as he uses it to describe farangs would have been sent packing long ago.

Have to agree with Thaigoon on this one. The inference that there are only four Thais in Thailand that are successful through hard work and honesty is unequivocably dispicable and should be given condemnation by all - whether one likes Thailand or not. It speakes clearly of the character of the man who wrote it. The same would be said if the insult that only four Italians, Irishmen, Swedes, etc. became successful through hard work and honesty. It would reek of ignorance and malice.

In every corner of Thailand there are successful, honest and hard working people that are impossible not to meet up with if one ventures about. And yes, there are those of less character as well, just like everywhere else in the world.

Thanks Mdeland.

[sriracha john]

Visa changes are one of the top reasons people are moving to Thailand. At least here in Hua Hin, many people got very tired of 30 day visa runs to Ranong. Now that they have been prodded into obtaining 1 year visas, they feel far more comfortable in staying here on a long term basis.

Comfortable?

Yes, I understand things are running so smooth, orderly, and sensibly regarding staying long-term in Thailand now that thaivisa is anticipating closing down it's entire "Thai visas, residency and work permits" forum soon because everyone is so "comfortable" and it's not needed anymore.

Edited April 24, 2007 by sriracha john

[Tilokarat]

Despite the naysayers when Canada signed the free trade agreement with the U.S.A., Canada has fared fairly well under NAFTA. Likewise, I would think that Thailand will reap some benefits from Japanese investment and 'exploitation'. I doubt that Japan would be willing to invest in Thailand if they felt the Thai economy was not one worthy of their yen. Thailand, like many countries, faces economic problems, but here at least is an answer that will provide some jobs and money that could trickle down to workers and others. Let's see what happens.

[gagabel]

Everything what goes on in Thailand seems to be irrational.

Official statistics don't mean a lot if you take into consideration how big the informal economy is.

In my view, anecdotal evidence gives you more insight (apparent building oversupply, something's wrong with the currency, screwed up government, complaining taxis, prostitutes, more competition from regional countries, etc.).

Right now the situation in Thailand feels like 1997. Back then most of the people and numbers told you that everything was all right, until the day...

It happened once, why shouldn't it happen again? The signs are obviously there and most of the people in this forum coming to the same conclusion.

It must be some desired cycle (like the recurrent coups) for the people who are really in charge here: break it down to build it up again...

What was TG doing and saying back in '97?

[cdnvic]

I think one thing that gets missed is how much of these investments get eaten up by corruption and waste. That unfortunately is difficult to measure or get anything but anecdotal figures on.

[somtaamgaiyang]

Somtamgaiyang,

Very interesting and enlightening post. Not that the conclusions are very suprising.

I remember when Orange came in and got dicked around left and right until they gave up and, I believe, sold out to their Thai partners.

A number of months ago, a short time after the coup, I remember reading an article in the nation in which the author stated that approximately 100 families were basically in charge of the country. These families were high up in the police, in the army, from the old feudal landed aristocracy, and included some nouveaux riche like Thaksin. Both political and economic power are closely related. It must be really hard to break through these networks and get a piece of the pie.

I apologise if I offened anyone, but these facts are widely known and can be found in so many books and articles around the world, that one would have to believe it to be accurate. Of course people are successful in this country, honest or not I don't know, but as I stated, honesty is culturally subjective. I am not so niave to believe that are no honest people in the country.

What is interesting, is that obviously new money does not buy you as many friends as old money. It is the oldest of old school ties that hold the wealth of this country and woe betide anyone who rocks the boat too much.

I desperately tried to search the internet for hours to find a story about a successful Thai entrepreneur in the last 5 years. All I could find was franchise businesses, and we all know who actually owns the main franchise for 7 eleven etc. I found one company AquaSiam that has developed and sold successfully an enzyme for disposing of waste from pulp factories. Bravo to them!

[jumnien]

I think if you search Thai language internet stories you will have more luck!

[bingobongo]

as always the devil is in the details......reality will be painful

Reuters

Thai March exports hit record, but seen weakening

Outlook gloomier: But economists said they expected a weaker export trend over the rest of 2007, due in part to abrupt policy moves by the government installed after a bloodless September coup which put off foreign investors.

“It’s really quite surprising that exports remained so strong despite the strong baht,” economist Vishnu Varathan of Forecast in Singapore said.

“Exports should begin to wane, maybe later in Q2,” he said.

As advance export orders were whittled down and hedged positions squared off, the strength of the baht would be expected to bite, he said.

The value of foreign investment applications, mainly from Japan, dropped 23 percent in the first two months of this year from a year earlier after the rule changes were proposed, Board of Investment data showed.

Foreign investment applications between September 2006 and February 2007 dropped about 49 percent from a year earlier.

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2007%5C04%5C25%5Cstory_25-4-2007_pg5_30

[bingobongo]

Thaigoon,

Good morning. Here is so more reality. The LARGEST Thai conglomerate is being affected by the slowing economy.......

Siam Cement Q1 net profit down 14 pct, above f'cast

Wed Apr 25, 2007 2:35AM EDT

Thailand's biggest industrial conglomerate, reported less than expected 14 percent fall in first-quarter net profit on Wednesday as a weak economy hit the construction and cement businesses.

http://www.reuters.com/article/tnBasicIndu...K00030320070425

[midas]

bingobongo the other factor is political instability which those on this thread that only seem to see" blue sky "ahead may

have overlooked see the other thread " Sonthi warns crisis likely in May" - which

ties in with warnings i have heard of possible further coups...................................

it sounds like a very bumpy road ahead until a new government is settled into place and that can't be good for short / medium

term investment prospects ?

[highdiver]

TG,

I can understand your desire to emphasize certain positive things that are going on in the kingdom, but, with all do respect, you seem to do it to the point of turning a blind eye to many of the negative things which do exist/are occuring here.

I also don't think that it is fair to say that people who disagree with your opinion and present certain evidence to dispute your opinion are necessarily pompous,stupid,disrespectful, or idiot farangs(although some actually may be). By doing so, you end up lowering the tenor of the discourse in the discussion.

In the end, I really don't know you so maybe this comment is unjustified.

It has got to be hard for TG. Lets do a little psycho analyssis here. His English is awesome, he is away from home, getting an Edu. in the US. So I would venture to say, he has some level of intellegence and from a family with a lot of money. He is used to getting his way, and pushing people around.

Life in America would be difficult for a forieng person like this. The playing field is more level, not level mind you but more level. If you try to push too hard in America, people do not mind squashing you flat. TG is Thai, so he is probably small in stature, he has no real physical presence, so he can not dominant via this. So his only option to show his authority is to used whit, and to toss money around.

He misses home greatly. Home is a place of refuge, home is what it is to a great many of us, and home also is were he can "draw his power." He misses his girl friend, a woman that loves him dispite his inadequeces, physical, emotional etc. We have all have them, mine is for sure spelling!

So any how, he comes to this web site and finds falangs here bashing away at his country, that he misses soo very much. It has got to be hard. This site also reminds him that no matter how hard he tries, perfect English, wealth etc... falangs have views of Thais, that are strongly ingrained, and wrong or right, they probably will never change.

Does the above make TG's actions and insults OK.... Not in my book, but I can understand his actions. He is hurt and he is crying out.

I think you are taking this way and beyond....

there is no room for this type of personal attack on TG.

TG as well as many other members can disagree and debate issues on Thailand. and its ok to criticise Thiland, its govermant and its people, however when some members are "falangs bashing away at his country" mostly not as justified criticisem based on facts but more of a " views of Thais, that are strongly ingrained, and wrong or right, they probably will never change" with a high sent of racisem and western supriority over Thai. I think he has due right to be offended and stand up and say it.

yesd he is educated and he is intelctual, is that wrong?? is it wrong for him to ask other members to think, evaluate and check facts before they trash the thread... ???

in what ever thread on this forum you look there are members that discuss the issue itself and those unfortunate ones that while uneducated and lack knowledge about the subject presist to enter each thread with some sarcastic racist remark or to publish data and has no real fact value. they just post some ugly insulting view that is usualy nothing to do with the subject.

i am a frequent reader of many of the posts and when i feel i can contribute to the discussion I do so, I have no intention of offending anyone and I dont think TG has any as well.

I think your attempt to analise TG and publicly offend him are not fair. htye are irelevant to the disussion and only serve as to offend.

[Plus]

I desperately tried to search the internet for hours to find a story about a successful Thai entrepreneur in the last 5 years.

The Business Extra in the Nation has DAILY profiles of successful Thai businessmen (and businesswomen) on the front page. I got tired of even looking at them.

[highdiver]

I desperately tried to search the internet for hours to find a story about a successful Thai entrepreneur in the last 5 years.

The Business Extra in the Nation has DAILY profiles of successful Thai businessmen (and businesswomen) on the front page. I got tired of even looking at them.

[LaoPo]

.........I have no intention of offending anyone and I dont think TG has any as well.

Well, TG was sent on a 'holiday' by the Mods and why was that you think ?

Apart from that, he personally flamed/bashed and insulted me in PM's....something to think about, highdiver.

Any discussion is fine, personal insult and flaming/bashing is not; please read the Forum Rules about that; TG should do as well.

From Forum Rules:

" Excessive, aggressive posts against other members, moderators and admin; or flaming will not be tolerated. 'Flaming' is best defined as posting or responding to a message in a way clearly intended to incite useless arguments, rants, and/or for launching personal attacks, insulting, being hateful, useless criticism, name calling, swearing and other bad behavior or comments meant to incite anger. "

LaoPo

Edited April 25, 2007 by LaoPo

[Plus]

I think TG would have been more balanced if he wasn't provoked/didn't slip himself to take extremely opposing views to other members. Everything and everyone has become only black or only white.

[vermin on arrival]

Bingobongo,

Nice posts. Very clearly showing the thai business community's documentation of the downturn of the Thai economy .

Plus,

I don't think the issue here is whether there are successful thai businessmen, but rather, how it is primarily being achieved. Is it because there is true social mobility and successful entrepeneurs or because people are locked into family/old boy networks and reaping the benefits therein?

Also, one may wonder about the nature of these bios. Are they truly showcasing innovative businessmen, or is it more of a eulogy/ingratiating flattery? Maybe this is not a fair comment.

Edited April 25, 2007 by vermin on arrival

[highdiver]

Bingobongo,

Nice posts. Very clearly showing the thai business community's documentation of the downturn of the Thai economy .

Plus,

I don't think the issue here is whether there are successful thai businessmen, but rather, how it is primarily being achieved. Is it because there is true social mobility and successful entrepeneurs or because people are locked into family/old boy networks and reaping the benefits therein?

is it not the same all over the world? is it not same in othe places?

Also, one may wonder about the nature of these bios. Are they truly showcasing innovative businessmen, or is it more of a eulogy/ingratiating flattery? Maybe this is not a fair comment.

it is not fair...

[vermin on arrival]

Highdiver,

I believe the debate is the degree to which it takes place. Yes, these things do happen in other places, but I, as do some others on this forum, believe it happens much more here.

To be honest, I don't know enough about the people involved in the bios to give a fair comment. Hence, the backpedaling in my earlier post. I have seen the bios and the few times that I read them wasn't really quite sure what to make of them.

[Plus]

I thought the Nation started this topic about a year ago precisely to show others that success CAN be achieved but I might be wrong.

Some people here say that "there's no upward social mobility in Thailand" and some say that "there are no stories of successful independent businessmen".

There was an article quoted earlier saying that half of Thai richest men are the new money.

There are daily articles about success stories.

I wish people would consider that before making sweeping statements.

[vermin on arrival]

Well, I never said there was none to either of these issues.

Which article was this? Can you please show me the reference.

[bluegibbon]

Imo, the economy will probably pick up once the new constitution/gov is in order later this year and early next year.

[Jai Dee]

Industry federation confident Thai economy will improve after general election

The industry sector affirms the current Thai economy will not affect investor confidence, adding that the economy may improve after the general election takes place at the end of this year.

Chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries, Santi Vilassakdanont (สันติ วิลาศศักดานนท์) says the industry sector has yet expressed concern over the reduction the economic growth prediction by the Bank of Thailand (BoT) to 3.8-4.8 percent. He believes that the Thai economy will continue to rise due to the export sector.

Mr Santi says despite the political instability, the general election expected to be held at the year’s end will help restore investor confidence and positively affect this year’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The Federation of Thai Industries predicts that the 2007 GDP will stay around 4.0-4.5 percent.

The chairman suggests that the government should impose measures to stimulate the economy by decreasing the interest rate by 0.5 percent and expediting its ongoing construction projects.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 26 April 2007

[Dakhar]

Oh it is bound to pick up after that.... the question is, how much damage is going to be caused before that time? Can a country put the pieces together after all of that? How long will it take, will Thailand always be playing "catch up" after this.

I say, unfortunatley, yes Thailand will always be playing catch up, as long as English is the language of business, Thailand will remain in the back of the bus.

I work with one co. and I have consulted with them countless times that they need to have ther materials translated to Thai. They say.... "Thailand needs to learn English" they actually think they are doing Thailand a favor by encouraging Thais to stretch themselves a little and use English.

Well, it dosn't work that way.... not here anyways.

[cdnvic]

It does make some sense that a successful return to a democratically elected government will help ease investors' worries of political instability. Will the economy be able to hold itself up until then is the question. Damage done in the meantime could take years to correct.

edit: Dakhar beat me to it

Edited April 26, 2007 by cdnvic

[Furbie]

It still amazes me that there are people on TV whose stock response is always "if you don't like it, leave". Why are you on TV? Why not start a board and call it the "Thailand Happy Smile Board" and the only topics allowed to be posted are those that make Thailand out to be Shangri-la; no tourist scams, happy smiling people going to the Wat once a week, working hard, honoring their elders and swapping som tam recipes. While you're at it, you can bash the UK and US to your heart's content.

For those of us in the real word – thanks to the posters who believe Thailand is on the right track and take pains to explain their point of view. The discussion has been most enlightening. Though I do not agree with your conclusion, you have contributed mightily to my knowledge on this topic.