The Thai Economy Is In Crisis

[highdiver]

I disagree with what he's saying but won't take the time or expend the effort to try to show where he's wrong.

Enlighten us when you find the time.

Disagreeing is fine with me but just saying so without giving any fundamentals is not appropriate.

Oi!!!!

I'll say this once and once only. Theories of this genetic based claptrap can be posted far far far away from Thai visa. Far be it for me (a mix of maybe 6 different 'races') to be an 'expert' on this, but I think you'll find that the forum rules pretty clearly state that no racial slurs are allowed, no matter how much they are dressed up with scientific mumbo jumbo.

While it may be the 'weak' genetic code that I've inhereted from a genetically inferior ancestor has made me "feeble minded" on this issue so that I "no-understand", I'm sure another dicatorial genetic trait that I've probably inherted from my Thai side makes me take great pleasure arbritarily closing down this part of the discussion and warn people that ensuing discussion will result in a very long, perhaps permanent holiday.

Lets keep this discussion on topic (whatever that is now).....Bingoboingo needs a place to post all his "Thailand is going down the toilet" messages somewhere......

[cclub75]

An interesting small piece in Bangkok Post this morning.

We learn that :

-NLA has completed the first reading of the amended version of Foreign Business Act.

-A sub committee is set up to "rectify" it (again). Some members would like to add the "control management" as a criteria to define if a company is foreign or not.

INVESTMENT :The National Legislative Assembly is considering management control as one aspect to define any company as foreign under the Foreign Business Act (FBA), according to Skol Harnsuthivarin, a Commerce Ministry official.

The amended draft FBA this week passed first reading from the NLA and a new subcommittee was set up to rectify the draft, he said.

According to Mr Skol, some committee members want to include management control in addition to voting rights, which would be taken into account in the definition of a foreign company.

The draft is due to be tabled soon for its second and third readings in the NLA and is likely to be passed by the interim government, he believes.

[Mid]

Thailand's domestic vehicle sales slump, exports jump

Jul 26, 2007, 4:31 GMT

Bangkok - Thailand's domestic vehicle sales slumped 13.4 per cent in the first half of 2007, while exports rose 16.9 per cent to earn the country 135 billion baht (4 billion dollars), industry sources said Thursday.

Because of the slowdown in domestic sales, the Thai Auto Industry Club has revised its target for total vehicle production this year down to 1,257,000 units from it's original goal of 1,284,000 units, said Club spokesman Surapong Paisitphannapong.

2007 dpa - Deutsche Presse-Agentur

[PeaceBlondie]

Thailand's domestic vehicle sales slump, exports jump

Jul 26, 2007, 4:31 GMT

Bangkok - Thailand's domestic vehicle sales slumped 13.4 per cent in the first half of 2007, while exports rose 16.9 per cent to earn the country 135 billion baht (4 billion dollars), industry sources said Thursday.

Because of the slowdown in domestic sales, the Thai Auto Industry Club has revised its target for total vehicle production this year down to 1,257,000 units from it's original goal of 1,284,000 units, said Club spokesman Surapong Paisitphannapong.

2007 dpa - Deutsche Presse-Agentur

Since the final paragraph that's quoted here is in number of units, I suppose the sales increase for exports, of 16.9%, is also in units, not dollars or baht. It is confusing when some of the changes in revenue are reported, since those do not always account for the currency fluctuations. If these figures are in units and are accurate, domestic sales have significantly slumped. But maybe they've stopped buying cheap Toyotas and are only buying BMW's and Mercedes now.

[cclub75]

Thailand's domestic vehicle sales slump, exports jump

Here are the datas from BOT (from january to may).

http://www.bot.or.th/bothomepage/databank/...ance/tab71e.asp

The datas for the semester given by Thai Auto Industry Club show that june was bad (less than 46 000 units were sold, passenger and commercial cars).

That goes against the first statements of BOT regarding may, when they said that they started to see an improvement of private consumption.

[bkkandrew]

Thailand's domestic vehicle sales slump, exports jump

Here are the datas from BOT (from january to may).

http://www.bot.or.th/bothomepage/databank/...ance/tab71e.asp

The datas for the semester given by Thai Auto Industry Club show that june was bad (less than 46 000 units were sold, passenger and commercial cars).

That goes against the first statements of BOT regarding may, when they said that they started to see an improvement of private consumption.

And you are shocked that someone may not be telling the truth? What here? In Thailand?

[Old Man River]

Thailand's domestic vehicle sales slump, exports jump

Here are the datas from BOT (from january to may).

http://www.bot.or.th/bothomepage/databank/...ance/tab71e.asp

The datas for the semester given by Thai Auto Industry Club show that june was bad (less than 46 000 units were sold, passenger and commercial cars).

That goes against the first statements of BOT regarding may, when they said that they started to see an improvement of private consumption.

And you are shocked that someone may not be telling the truth? What here? In Thailand?

The BOT uses the Private Consumption Index (yr 2000 as base) which does show an improvement for May.

[Mid]

Thai economic growth slows in second quarter

London: 11:54, 26 Jul

BANGKOK (Thomson Financial) - Thailand's economy grew at a slower pace in the second quarter than during the first three months of the year as private consumption continued to slump, the finance ministry said Thursday.

The economy grew by an estimated 4.0 percent in the three months to June, compared to 4.3 percent in the first quarter, the ministry's fiscal policy office said

.

Hemscott Group Limited

............ ............ ............. .............. ............. ................

Business confidence in Thailand down sharply in June on political concerns, baht

Published : Thu, 26 Jul 2007 11:42

BANGKOK (Thomson Financial) - Business confidence in Thailand was down sharply in June, dropping to 80.9 from 86.1 in May, due to worries over the strong baht and political uncertainties, the Federation of Thai Industries said Thursday.

The business confidence index has been declining since September last year, when the military seized power in a bloodless coup.

Business confidence hit a low of 77 in April, jumped in May, and has now declined again.

In June last year, the index was at 87.9. A reading below 100 indicates pessimism about the outlook for Thailand.

ABCmoney.co.uk

[Mid]

Thailand's economy grows 4.3 per cent in 2Q

Thursday 26 July 2007 07:34:40 PM (GMT+7:00)

BANGKOK, July 26 (TNA) - Thailand's economy in the second quarter this year expanded 4.3 per cent thanks to government's spending, higher exports and rising private investment, but private consumption continues to slump, said a senior finance ministry official Thursday.

MCOT Public Company Limited.

interesting , doesn't quite jell with Hemscott Group Limited as posted above .................

[Mid]

well not only do we have an offshore / onshore exchange rate ,

there is also an offshore / onshore set of economic data ,

interesting result

currently 3 to 2 of 5 with Q2 growth dependant on domestic v's international media .....................

[Old Man River]

Thailand's economy grows 4.3 per cent in 2Q

Thursday 26 July 2007 07:34:40 PM (GMT+7:00)

BANGKOK, July 26 (TNA) - Thailand's economy in the second quarter this year expanded 4.3 per cent thanks to government's spending, higher exports and rising private investment, but private consumption continues to slump, said a senior finance ministry official Thursday.

MCOT Public Company Limited.

interesting , doesn't quite jell with Hemscott Group Limited as posted above .................

Most probably they are comparing different periods. The PCI is a year on year comparison while the Hemscott Group's data looks like a year to date comparison. You can take raw data and present it many different ways and it is comparable as long as the calculations for each are consistent.

However, nobody thinks that consumer spending is on an upward trend. It is tanking and this government needs to continue to spend, spend, spend.

[Mid]

your too free with the benefit of the doubt ,

transpose the quoted figures in the stories and it works .....................

Q1 @ 4.3 and a DECREASE to 4.0 in Q2 ???

[Mid]

good morning Bulls , how are we .........???

Asian Stocks Post Biggest Loss in Four Months Amid Global Slump

By Chen Shiyin and Darren Boey

July 27 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks fell the most in four months, continuing a rout in global equities, as investors shun riskier assets because of a worsening U.S. housing recession.

snip

bloomberg.com

[soundman]

SET down more than 2% in morning trade.....

[Mid]

Excess supply of money and excess supply of goods

snip

The Economic Clock suggests that Thailand faces an excess supply of money and an excess supply of goods. Excessive liquidity is the key driver behind the massive gains in the stock market. Despite this, actual domestic demand still remains low.

snip

asiasentinel.com

[cclub75]

Most probably they are comparing different periods. The PCI is a year on year comparison while the Hemscott Group's data looks like a year to date comparison. You can take raw data and present it many different ways and it is comparable as long as the calculations for each are consistent.

However, nobody thinks that consumer spending is on an upward trend. It is tanking and this government needs to continue to spend, spend, spend.

It's interesting to see that actually, both have covered the same press conference yesterday with the same official, Pannee Sathavarodom...

To sum'up

AFP : "estimated 4.0 %"

TNA (Thai news agency) : "+4.3 %"

And do you know why I think AFP has got it right ? Because there is no way, the gvt can calculate the official growth % for Q2, 3 weeks after it ended...

And we need to go further : even at +4.3 % on Q2, it's coming only from a massive (even TNA uses the word "ballooned"), increase of gvt expenses : + 36.3 % !

And already on Q1, gvt expenses were up.

http://www.bot.or.th/bothomepage/databank/...ance/tab85e.asp

Do you call that healthy growth ? I call it : boiling room.

Edited July 27, 2007 by cclub75

[Old Man River]

Most probably they are comparing different periods. The PCI is a year on year comparison while the Hemscott Group's data looks like a year to date comparison. You can take raw data and present it many different ways and it is comparable as long as the calculations for each are consistent.

However, nobody thinks that consumer spending is on an upward trend. It is tanking and this government needs to continue to spend, spend, spend.

It's interesting to see that actually, both have covered the same press conference yesterday with the same official, Pannee Sathavarodom...

To sum'up

AFP : "estimated 4.0 %"

TNA (Thai news agency) : "+4.3 %"

And do you know why I think AFP has got it right ? Because there is no way, the gvt can calculate the official growth % for Q2, 3 weeks after it ended...

And we need to go further : even at +4.3 % on Q2, it's coming only from a massive (even TNA uses the word "ballooned"), increase of gvt expenses : + 36.3 % !

And already on Q1, gvt expenses were up.

http://www.bot.or.th/bothomepage/databank/...ance/tab85e.asp

Do you call that healthy growth ? I call it : boiling room.

On coming up with data 3 weeks after the quarter, it has to be based on assumptions as I agree accurate info that fast isn't possible.

Is government spending healthy growth? Not if it doesn't spur consumer spending it is not. You can only go to this well for so long. Other than food, consumers spend based on the perception that the economy is going to be good for the foreseeable future. If it isn't, stimulus has to come from somewhere and if it isn't going to come from the private sector, then it has to be from the government. Really, they have no choice.

[midas]

Even though I'm not a member of the " lollipops and roses " group as

bingbongo refers to them I was at surprised the SET fell sharply today

even though we know the Dow Jones do the same last night ? I thought

the gradual buildup over the past few weeks was justified on the basis that

SET stocks were cheap and PE ratio's were relatively low compared to other

economies in the region ? On the basis I would have expected a slight dip

but not over 2% ? Or could the sub-prime debacle in the USA have indirect

consequences for SE Asian economies ?

It probably just illustrates I will never understand the psychology of

the market participants which is the reason I keep out of it

it will be interesting to see where it goes from here

[Mid]

BOT growth target revised upward

Fri, July 27, 2007 : Last updated 16:15 pm

The Bank of Thailand has revised up its 2007 economic growth target to 4.5 per cent, due mainly to the positive export growth in the first quarter.

The previous target was 3.8-4.8 per cent.

Suchada Kirakul, Bank of Thailand assistant governor, said at the press conference on Friday that overall export growth in dollar term should grow 12-15 per cent.

She also noted that Thailand will receive more capital inflows, as foreign direct investment as well as portfolio investment. Thai market's price/earning ratio is still low compared to those in the region while there are a number of projects which have been granted tax privileges from the Board of Investment and have not yet kicked start the investment, she said.

- The Nation

[ray23]

Even though I'm not a member of the " lollipops and roses " group as

bingbongo refers to them I was at surprised the SET fell sharply today

even though we know the Dow Jones do the same last night ? I thought

the gradual buildup over the past few weeks was justified on the basis that

SET stocks were cheap and PE ratio's were relatively low compared to other

economies in the region ? On the basis I would have expected a slight dip

but not over 2% ? Or could the sub-prime debacle in the USA have indirect

consequences for SE Asian economies ?

It probably just illustrates I will never understand the psychology of

the market participants which is the reason I keep out of it

it will be interesting to see where it goes from here

I think that the BOT and Set were counting on the hedgefunds sticking around for the tough times, I don't think so but time will tell.

[LaoPo]

Positive outlook or wishful thinking?...

IMF: Thailand not moving towards crisis

(BangkokPost.com) - The International Monetary Fund’s Managing Director has expressed optimism that Thailand will not face a second economic crisis similar to the one in 1997.

Speaking at a regional seminar amongst Federal Bank governors, Rodrigo de Rato said that the present Thai economy is different from 10 years ago in that it has been adjusting for the better. He also added that this positive factor, added with the volatile currency, will ensure that Thailand’s economy will not collapse.

He also suggested that the Bank of Thailand’s intervention of the Thai baht’s movement, which resulted in a deficit of 170 billion baht, should not be the factor used to calibrate the Central Bank’s capacity. He pointed out that the central bank should be praised for its transparency and also for the measures introduced to help exporters survive the baht’s sharp rise.

Responding to criticism that the BOT should have lowered interest rates further than just 25 basis points to stem the baht’s strength, Mr. de Rato said lowering interest rates too dramatically would result in investors losing faith in the Bank of Thailand.

Note:

IMHO a kind of Thailand 'crisis' as in '97 will not (yet) happen....BUT Thailand [and rest of the world] could suffer big deal from the outcome of the present situation in the US; and that situation is not nice at all, especially the US housing market and tumbling Hedge funds are a major concern. Mortgage banks are weak and their sub primed mortgages* could make the card house tumble, never mind the promising growth figures about the real outlooks in the US.

* millions of Americans are having difficulties to pay [or can't pay anymore] their mortgages; those loans are 're-sold' to other institutions like hedge funds, now in deep trouble.

Worldwide stocks dropped severely last week and US stocks will likely drop further the coming week** and thus drag down worldwide [and SET] stocks also. This influences the economical unrest and could hurt Thailand worse than other countries because of the uncertain political situation, just weeks ahead of the 'new' constitution, as well as the declined confidence amongst investors and Thai themselves.

Stormy weather ahead.

** If you're interested:

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Stor...4-0CA8173A269B}

LaoPo

Edited July 29, 2007 by LaoPo

[midas]

IMHO a kind of Thailand 'crisis' as in '97 will not (yet) happen....BUT Thailand [and rest of the world] could suffer big deal from the outcome of the present situation in the US; and that situation is not nice at all, especially the US housing market and tumbling Hedge funds are a major concern. Mortgage banks are weak and their sub primed mortgages* could make the card house tumble, never mind the promising growth figures about the real outlooks in the US.

* millions of Americans are having difficulties to pay [or can't pay anymore] their mortgages; those loans are 're-sold' to other institutions like hedge funds, now in deep trouble.

Worldwide stocks dropped severely last week and US stocks will likely drop further the coming week** and thus drag down worldwide [and SET] stocks also. This influences the economical unrest and could hurt Thailand worse than other countries because of the uncertain political situation, just weeks ahead of the 'new' constitution, as well as the declined confidence amongst investors and Thai themselves.

Stormy weather ahead.

yes indeed and it beats me how market participants drove indices to such stratospheric

levels in the first place over the past few weeks because this sub prime debacle has been

the subject of discussion now for months

[LaoPo]

IMHO a kind of Thailand 'crisis' as in '97 will not (yet) happen....BUT Thailand [and rest of the world] could suffer big deal from the outcome of the present situation in the US; and that situation is not nice at all, especially the US housing market and tumbling Hedge funds are a major concern. Mortgage banks are weak and their sub primed mortgages* could make the card house tumble, never mind the promising growth figures about the real outlooks in the US.

* millions of Americans are having difficulties to pay [or can't pay anymore] their mortgages; those loans are 're-sold' to other institutions like hedge funds, now in deep trouble.

Worldwide stocks dropped severely last week and US stocks will likely drop further the coming week** and thus drag down worldwide [and SET] stocks also. This influences the economical unrest and could hurt Thailand worse than other countries because of the uncertain political situation, just weeks ahead of the 'new' constitution, as well as the declined confidence amongst investors and Thai themselves.

Stormy weather ahead.

yes indeed and it beats me how market participants drove indices to such stratospheric

levels in the first place over the past few weeks because this sub prime debacle has been

the subject of discussion now for months

Yes, correct, but that's how market players go and react, often too late.

But, it wasn't known yet HOW bad the situation really was. I think it's the top of the iceberg...90% still below water surface...

For the time being I stay cash.

LaoPo

[captainstabbin]

For the time being I stay cash.

LaoPo

Good-oh. I know who is buying the beers in 6-months or so.

I also know who isn't. You know who you are...

[midas]

Yes, correct, but that's how market players go and react, often too late.

But, it wasn't known yet HOW bad the situation really was. I think it's the top of the iceberg...90% still below water surface...

For the time being I stay cash.

LaoPo

There is no excuse ! If you hear any concerns about MORTGAGES ( i.e. covering property

which is such an illiquid asset anyway ) coupled with DERIVATIVES - so called experts

should have started to assemble at the exits then - they are like lemmings !

[Mid]

meanwhile

UF to cease operation

Wed, August 1, 2007 : Last updated 15:52 pm

Union Footwear Plc (UF), a 55.52-per cent owned subsidiary of Saha Union Plc (SUC), announced on Wednesday to shut down its operation due to the tougher competition in international market and the baht appreciation.

snip

nationmultimedia.com

[cclub75]

Occupancy rate of hotels went down 10 % for the january/june period, according to Thai Hotels Association.

Details on Nation, with also figures per areas for june.

[highdiver]

Occupancy rate of hotels went down 10 % for the january/june period, according to Thai Hotels Association.

Details on Nation, with also figures per areas for june.

once again headline making...

there are more tourist coming in then last year. so where are they all going??

this year there are more hotels then last year. many of them are not members of the THA.

the smaller high style hotels are taking a big chunk of what was once dominated by the older hotels. as there are more hotels the avereage ocupancy has droped where the supply of rooms has increased. only in Bangkok there has been an addition of many new delux hotels over the past year.

i spoke today to the manager of Turismo. one of the largest inbound operators in Thaialnd and he said that they cant get enough rooms for the demand for the season of October- January.specialy in Phuket and Samui.

he hopes that all those building will complete in time.

[cclub75]

there are more tourist coming in then last year. so where are they all going??

this year there are more hotels then last year. many of them are not members of the THA.

Fair enough. There is indeed an increase of international arrivals (datas from Thai Immigration available here, until march 2007).

However, it could show an evolution of tourists habits.

For instance, shorter trips, thanks to the explosion of low costs airlines. Leading to an overall decrease of the occupancy rate.

[Mid]

Watch orderedon firms at risk

Published on August 3, 2007

Daily checks on plants in 10 provinces to prevent collapses

The Industry Ministry has ordered the Department of Provin-cial Industrial Works to closely monitor plants in 10 provinces to see if they are in financial trouble and need assistance, following the closure plans of a giant garment factory and two footwear companies.

snip

Business Reporters

The Nation