solo siam Posted August 10, 2007 Share Posted August 10, 2007 From the Bangkok Post on Saturday "Growth goal rising EXPORTS :The Commerce Ministry is planning to revise up its 2007 export growth projection to 15%, from 12.5% to reflect continued robust trade in the second half of this year. Officials now forecast that the country's export revenue in US dollars would reach $149.5 billion, up from $145.9 billion estimated earlier. Exports in the first half expanded by 18.6% despite weak growth of only 0.1% to the United States, the country's largest market. In any case, the significance of double-digit percentage increases are being questioned in some circles since the baht has gained 7% against the US dollar this year.Commerce Minister Krirk-krai Jirapaet said that other markets remained healthy, with 23% growth in the dollar value of exports to the European Union, 15.3% in Asean and 14.9% in Japan. Shipments to "new" markets including India, Africa and Eastern Europe also grew strongly and now account for 45% of total export value, a figure the ministry hopes will increase to 50% in the near future. " So 12.5%-15% growth in exports, with a 7% gain on the US$ currency wise - Still seems very good to me, that indicates a 5.5%-8% increase in exports DESPITE the bahts strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mid Posted August 10, 2007 Share Posted August 10, 2007 Aug 04, 2007 (Bangkok Post - McClatchy-Tribune Information Services via COMTEX) -- GROWTH GOAL RISING: The Commerce Ministry is planning to revise up its 2007 export growth projection to 15 percent, from 12.5 percent to reflect continued robust trade in the second half of this year. lot of water under the bridge since the 4th ..................................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
solo siam Posted August 10, 2007 Share Posted August 10, 2007 Aug 04, 2007 (Bangkok Post - McClatchy-Tribune Information Services via COMTEX) -- GROWTH GOAL RISING: The Commerce Ministry is planning to revise up its 2007 export growth projection to 15 percent, from 12.5 percent to reflect continued robust trade in the second half of this year. lot of water under the bridge since the 4th ..................................... What 5 business days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mid Posted August 10, 2007 Share Posted August 10, 2007 sub-prime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
solo siam Posted August 10, 2007 Share Posted August 10, 2007 (edited) So? Hows that more dangerous to Thailands economy/exporting than a coup, massive revaluation of currency upwards, FBA etc... A few percentage points of the stock exchange (bearing in mind all stock exchanges have just about lost percentage points) doesn't really impact the economy much. Stock exchanges are simply a form of gambling, not a precise indicator of anything except peoples aversion to risk/reward at a particular point/place in time. Edited August 10, 2007 by Ben@H3-Digital Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaoPo Posted August 10, 2007 Share Posted August 10, 2007 From the Bangkok Post on Saturday"Growth goal rising EXPORTS :The Commerce Ministry is planning to revise up its 2007 export growth projection to 15%, from 12.5% to reflect continued robust trade in the second half of this year. Growth Projection is one thing; reality another. Better wait out the rest of 2007 and see what's happening on the road to come; there might be some red traffic lights... LaoPo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A_Traveller Posted August 10, 2007 Share Posted August 10, 2007 ...Stock exchanges are simply a form of gambling, not a precise indicator of anything except peoples aversion to risk/reward at a particular point/place in time.That is true for the SET and other 'emerging markets'. However, many other markets {mostly in 1st World locations} are real capital marketplaces and they do offer an insight into that nation's economy and the complex interactions between markets.Regards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
solo siam Posted August 10, 2007 Share Posted August 10, 2007 Growth Projection is one thing; reality another.Better wait out the rest of 2007 and see what's happening on the road to come; there might be some red traffic lights... LaoPo There hasn't been already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mid Posted August 10, 2007 Share Posted August 10, 2007 So?Hows that more dangerous to Thailands economy/exporting than a coup, massive revaluation of currency upwards, FBA etc... A few percentage points of the stock exchange (bearing in mind all stock exchanges have just about lost percentage points) doesn't really impact the economy much. Stock exchanges are simply a form of gambling, not a precise indicator of anything except peoples aversion to risk/reward at a particular point/place in time. would you be reading more than is there ? on Aug the 4th they were planning to revise up its 2007 export growth projection to 15%, from 12.5% to reflect continued robust trade in the second half of this year. , then the a@$# fell out of the markets , your analogy of a few points is simply rose coloured glasses , Reserve Banks have been stepping in Globally . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xbusman Posted August 10, 2007 Share Posted August 10, 2007 Ben, your starting again. I thought we went through all this already. Have to be careful with any numbers pushed out by an Asian government with suppressed press. Working from their numbers we should first do our best to compare six months to six months results. Here is the graph of the Thai Baht. Sorry, Yahoo gives the offshore rate but we can adjust for the divergence that took place last year. All right, I think we can agree that between Jan 06 and July 06, the baht moved from 40 to 38 with 39 probably being a good average. Jan 07 to July 07 we started at 36 and then the onshore rate took over, it has been at 33 to 34 lately with probably a good average around 35. So our first two quarters last year where at 39. Our first two quarters this year are at 35. Thats about a 10% increase in the value of the baht over first half 2006. Now while GDP is adjusted for inflation, exports usually are not. So we would expect a minimum rise from inflation and some growth in line with GDP which while slowed, is still growing. Now remember the cars that are not being sold in Thailand? Well they are still being made and models do not get fresher sitting in storage lots, so we are watching car exports expand dramatically. Thats good for Thailand actually, much better for GDP to build a car and ship it than to sell it inside the country. So when we remove the actual currency change, look at the sudden increase in automotive exports, factor out inflation, we are back to the point where with very few exceptions exports are not growing but may in fact be shrinking. Again Ben, measuring Thai exports in US dollars is an attempt by the authorities to blind and mislead the weak minded or unexperienced. When they start giving us export performance in Thai baht with break outs according to industry, I will sit up and take notice. Now that the baht has reached the incredibly strong position between 33 and 34, I would most certainly hope that the Ministry would increase its projection of exports by a few percentage points when measured in a weakening foreign currency. I wish they would have picked Zimbabwe dollars and given us a 2000% increase in exports, I would sleep a lot better with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A_Traveller Posted August 10, 2007 Share Posted August 10, 2007 (edited) Re Central banks the article here in today's Economist is worth reviewing in this context. Regards Link /edit Spool Chicken again// Edited August 10, 2007 by A_Traveller Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
solo siam Posted August 10, 2007 Share Posted August 10, 2007 (edited) eh? The SET was at 620 in January, its at around 800 now. It lost a MASSIVE 0.9% on Friday - it would have to do the same again for around 2 months every single business day just to get back to January's level. They are revising the export rate projection because of very strong export figures for the first 6 months, not because they thought the SET was high. xbusman - sorry I know you wexpected for the export levels to have shrunk, however it's just not the case - at today's rate baht exports have risen ABOVE the level of inflation. Edited August 10, 2007 by Ben@H3-Digital Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mid Posted August 10, 2007 Share Posted August 10, 2007 to reflect continued robust trade in the second half of this year. , the freight ain't there anymore ........................................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xbusman Posted August 10, 2007 Share Posted August 10, 2007 They are revising the export rate in US dollars because the baht has continued to strengthen against all expectations. I would have a tendency to agree with Ben on the inability to judge a countries economy on the performance of the equity markets. Even the financial wizards who spend years studying the ratios are unable to agree on what movements mean, the timing, or even the direction. Look at the disagreement regarding the subprime debacle from all the experts over the past six months. One thing we can agree on, when the equity markets get inflated over rational P/E levels, it becomes speculative. A bursting speculative market can dry up liquidity, lose investors billions, and bring the economy to a halt. The bigger the bubble, the bigger the fall. Perhaps long term the equities markets do show economic performance but I wonder if they dont overall give a better indication of inflation than of performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ray23 Posted August 10, 2007 Share Posted August 10, 2007 Hmm!!! it's all in the numbers and the numbers are all as to who is presenting them and thier goal. Wonder what the real story is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaoPo Posted August 10, 2007 Share Posted August 10, 2007 Hmm!!! it's all in the numbers and the numbers are all as to who is presenting them and thier goal. Wonder what the real story is? Public Relations Bureau of the present, junta installed, government They're quite busy lately you know.... LaoPo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
highdiver Posted August 10, 2007 Share Posted August 10, 2007 From the Bangkok Post on Saturday"Growth goal rising EXPORTS :The Commerce Ministry is planning to revise up its 2007 export growth projection to 15%, from 12.5% to reflect continued robust trade in the second half of this year. Growth Projection is one thing; reality another. Better wait out the rest of 2007 and see what's happening on the road to come; there might be some red traffic lights... LaoPo i do belive that sounds familier ahh yes I remeber it was in April about the projection for the first half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaoPo Posted August 10, 2007 Share Posted August 10, 2007 It looks like the global sell-off on the stock markets (and therefore the SET also), which were fed by the US Mortgage problems, has been eased today -Friday 10th- a bit. The huge capital injections by the European, American and Japanese Central Banks -into the Banking system- had a positive result. The Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 recovered from their downfall and closed just a little down from yesterday; S&P even gained a tiny bit. What happens next week is the question but at least there's some more confidence that the mortgage crisis will not extend into the consuming markets and their shares. Hopefully the Asian markets recover as well, next week. LaoPo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jai Dee Posted August 11, 2007 Share Posted August 11, 2007 SET Index down 0.86% yesterday The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index yesterday (August 10th) lost 6.99 points, or down by 0.86 percent, to close at 804.84. The market value was approximately 19,574,550,000 baht, with about 2,513,071,000 shares being traded. The SET 100 Index also closed lower at 1,244.94 points, decreasing by 11.52 while the SET 50 Index ended at 574.35 points, down by 5.28. The Market for Alternative Investment (MAI) Index went down 1.62 points to close at 250.84. The top five most active values were as follows: PTT closed at 290.00 baht, down by 4.00, RRC closed at 23.30 baht, up by 0.20, TOP closed at 76.50 baht, up by 0.50, PTTEP remained at 117.00 baht and BANPU closed at 280.00 baht, down by 8.00. Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 11 August 2007 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usatrader Posted August 11, 2007 Share Posted August 11, 2007 StraFor- (Synopsis) The U.S. Subprime Crisis and the Pain to Come August 10, 2007 20 02 GMT Summary Fears of U.S. subprime instability have sparked a rash of panic-selling globally, with the worst impacts by far in Europe. The damage has concentrated on all things European for a number of reasons. Plenty of pain -- both American and European -- is yet ahead in the weeks and years to come. Finally, and most certain, the worst of the subprime crisis lies ahead. Variable rate mortgages did not begin to be applied en masse to subprime lending until 2004, with massive growth in that practice throughout 2005. That means there are a large number of subprime borrowers out there currently coasting by with very low monthly payments, and they will continue to do so until they are forced to refinance. Since most U.S. variable rate mortgages require such refinancing after five years, five years from 2004-5 -- 2009-10 -- is going to be a very painful period. The Global Problem Today and Tomorrow Though nearly all the subprime securities out there are in the United States, U.S. mortgages are generally perceived to be among the most rock-solid of investments, so some invariably trickle out to the wider world, with Europe being a popular investor. Crowning the fear was the Aug. 9 announcement by French bank BNP Paribas that it was suspending trading in $2 billion of funds on suspicion that subprime exposure meant they were not worth their listed value. Few things panic investors more when they are trying to pull their money out than being told they cannot pull their money out. A European stock market rout ensued. Unlike the stock queasiness of the previous week that U.S. markets simply shrugged off – the American markets had already dealt with the subprime issue and so did not feel particularly threatened by European skittishness -- this rout crossed the Atlantic, and to East Asia as well. This was not because either the United States or East Asia actually was dealing with subprime issues, just that widespread fear was ruling in Europe. Those fears triggered a broad sell-off that went well beyond anything that smelled like subprime, resulting in market drops the world over. To prevent a wider contagion, central banks the world over stepped in and flooded their respective banking systems with extra cash to ensure banks would be cash-flush enough to maintain normal operations. These injections continued, albeit in smaller amounts, Aug. 10 as the panic subsided somewhat. The U.S. Federal Reserve Board injected $35 billion, the Bank of Japan $8.4 billion and the Reserve Bank of Australia $4.2 billion. The European Central Bank (ECB), the reserve authority that had the pleasure of presiding over the original meltdown, has so far pumped in a total of $211 billion. Europe traditionally faces the most liquidity problems of the major poles of the global economy. That explains why of the $339 billion that central bankers have pumped into the system in the past 48 hours, two-thirds has come from the ECB, "only" $59 billion from the U.S. Federal Reserve and little more than couch change from Japan. Additionally, Europe will have its own homegrown subprime problem. Housing prices actually have taken off faster in Europe than they have in the United States during the past 10 years, largely on the back of the euro launch. From 1998 to 2007, U.S. home prices increased by an average of 50 percent. The corresponding value in the Netherlands, France and Sweden was 75 percent, while for Spain, Ireland and the United Kingdom it was 100 percent. While at the same time, European Mortgage rates were very low, as much as only 3% in many places. By far the most exposed country will be Spain, where 98 percent of new mortgages are variable rate and the bulk of new mortgages go to recent immigrants with little to no to bad credit history. Notably made up in large part from the nearly 4,000 per day whom are exiting the UK. Ultimately, though Europe so far has borne the brunt of the U.S. subprime woes, both it and the United States face tough times ahead. (The Telegraph just this week reported that Foreclosures in the UK are at record levels this year.) http://www.stratfor.com/products/premium/r...lected=Analyses The 2006 US Total Mortgage Debt market was in 2006 the latest reliable data set at $10.921 Trillion by Ginniemae. The Total Subprime market in the US is current set at $580 Billion, or 5.3% of the entire US Mortgage Debt. Of that 5.3% or $580 billion, 20% or $116 Billion is currently classified as delinquent (meaning the loans are 90 days or greater pass due) That is hardly an amount requiring over $ 211 billion capital infusions caused by a panic mob all rushing to the door screaming fire when there is no meaning fire in reality to begin with. Historically, having been directly involved in the 1980's bank and S&L default/liquidity panic as a FDIC offical, on average foreclosures return about 83% of defaulted value once put back onto the market. http://freddiemac.com/news/factbook/pdf/re...ook.pdf#page=34 A persepective beyond the panic on this dark road of the unknown as if not known. IMHO, this is like the Dot com boom of the 1990's and Bank and S&L over speculation of pricing in the 1980s. Price has reached an equilbrum with affordability and is just re-adjusting to the historical norms of affordibilty. Greedy Speculators always over price things, then, cry and want help, when they are the last out and miss the peak of that always enevitable top in all things speculated on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
esbobes Posted August 11, 2007 Share Posted August 11, 2007 the boys in green should get back in their tanks and go south to focus on the worsening insurgency and stay out of politics and economic affairs......well done junta, well done....maybe LOS should export lollipops and toy unicorns, right highdiver? Tighter curbs on foreign business Investors predicted to vote with their feet Foreign investor confidence is expected to nosedive after the National Legislative Assembly (NLA) yesterday approved significantly tighter restrictions on foreign businesses operating in Thailand. http://www.bangkokpost.com/News/09Aug2007_news01.php Stop speaking so bad of the SET. All of us in the known that ot willbe at 1500 by the end of the year. And one dollar will equal 15 Baht . Hurry up stop drinking and the rest of sinning you do and invest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jai Dee Posted August 11, 2007 Share Posted August 11, 2007 Setting exchange target would invite speculative attack: Central bank governor Setting target of exchange rate would expose the currency to speculative attacks, according to the governor of the Bank of Thailand. BoT Governor Tarisa Watanagase also allayed fears that Thailand might be affected by the sub-prime loan crisis erupting in the US, as the country has minimal exposure to the US sub-prime market. Mrs Tarisa said Thai investment in foreign notes tied to the US sub-prime market totals a mere 0.1 per cent. Therefore Thailand does not need to inject plenty into the liquidity like many other countries. Regarding the proposal by leading economist Dr Ammar Siamwalla that the central bank should define exchange rate target, Mrs Tarisa said the bank is willing to take the proposal into consideration. Whether or not this proposal will be embraced depends on how circumstances evolve. However, she noted that Finance Minister Chalongphob Sussangkarn remarked previously that a definite exchange rate target would be a give-away for currency speculators. Meanwhile, a senior officer at the Bank of Thailand said it is not possible for currency speculators to change Thai baht for the greenback along the border and then change it back in Thailand to benefit from the gap in rate between domestic and offshore markets. Mr Suchart Sakkankosone who oversees the exchange and credit regulation division of the bank said the allegation of such practice by some National Legislative Assembly members on Thursday does not make sense because this sort of business should be loss-making rather than profitable given the various regulations in place. Source: TNA - 11 August 2007 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
esbobes Posted August 11, 2007 Share Posted August 11, 2007 why is the SeT going down?nothing to do with Thailand or the goverment of the amnedment to the FBA it going down all over and the whole world is running for cash. credit worries crunched stock markets today, yanking the TSX and Dow into losses of more than 200 points. News that French bank BNP Paribas is freezing three funds that have struggled amid U.S. mortgage market concerns reignited fears over credit market erosion, which had rippling effect on Bay Street. Moves by central bankers to keep credit markets from seizing up only intensified anxiety. The European Central Bank's US$130-billion offer of overnight funds to banks at a bargain rate of four per cent was intended to calm investors, but Wall Street saw the step as confirmation of the seriousness of the situation. The U.S. Federal Reserve added $24 billion to the banking system, and the Bank of Canada, without being specific, said it will provide liquidity to support the stability of the Canadian financial system and the continued functioning of financial markets." rumours surfaced that German state bank WestLB -- already a focus of investor interest due to losses in its own trading business in the first quarter -- and its US asset management unit Brightwater were exposed to US subprime mortgage crisis. You will have to let this crisis run its course. History shows you can't solve something by simply putting out a statement. This has to unwind itself and until it does, investors are going to keep selling. The selling will only stop, when investors decide stocks are so low that buyers start stepping up again, recognising a bargain. there is no crisis is your manta , please make a note of it for future reference . I wish I could buy you for what you're worth and sell you for what you think you're worth I agree greatest remark on Thai Visa wish I said it. Relax and have fun That's what its about/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mid Posted August 11, 2007 Share Posted August 11, 2007 I agree greatest remark on Thai Visa wish I said it. http://sigcarlfred.blogspot.com/2006/10/sc...of-insults.html you give 'diver too much credit ......................................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
highdiver Posted August 11, 2007 Share Posted August 11, 2007 I agree greatest remark on Thai Visa wish I said it. http://sigcarlfred.blogspot.com/2006/10/sc...of-insults.html you give 'diver too much credit ......................................... Don't let your mind wander - it's far too little to be let out on its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mid Posted August 11, 2007 Share Posted August 11, 2007 Anonymous said... here is another list of great and not so insults:01. He may look like an idiot and talk like an idiot but don't let that fool you. He really is an idiot.- Groucho Marx 02. His mind is so open - so open that ideas simply pass through it. - F. H. Bradley 03. "The stupid person's idea of a clever person." - Elizabeth Bowen talking about Aldous Huxley 04. Are you always this stupid or are you making a special effort today - Anon. 05. Brains aren't everything. In fact in your case they're nothing - Anon. 06. Don't let you mind wander - it's far too small to be let out on its own - Anon. told you a long time ago , you got nothing ........................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
highdiver Posted August 11, 2007 Share Posted August 11, 2007 Anonymous said... told you a long time ago , you got nothing ........................ At least I have a positive attitude about my distructive habits. I like to insult you, but the sad truth is that you wouldn't understand it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mid Posted August 11, 2007 Share Posted August 11, 2007 At least I have a positive attitude about my distructive destructive habits. I would like to insult you, but the sad truth is that you wouldn't understand it. fish in a barrel come to mind , carry on ............................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chinthee Posted August 11, 2007 Share Posted August 11, 2007 At least I have a positive attitude about my distructive destructive habits. I would like to insult you, but the sad truth is that you wouldn't understand it. fish in a barrel come to mind , carry on ............................ What a sad life I lead when this is the best entertainment I can get on a Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaoPo Posted August 11, 2007 Share Posted August 11, 2007 At least I have a positive attitude about my distructive destructive habits. I would like to insult you, but the sad truth is that you wouldn't understand it. fish in a barrel come to mind , carry on ............................ What a sad life I lead when this is the best entertainment I can get on a Saturday night. I agree; why don't you put on a CD with good Ol' Frankie....."I did it MY WAY'...? LaoPo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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