Thailand's Free-falling Economy

[wintermute]

It's sad. The poor will have it the worst. They probably won't have much more than wild papaya, rice and insects to eat. Oh, wait that's what they eat now!

Eating dirt and insects is part of the sufficiency economy though!

[sbk]

Isn't this just a rehash of this old thread that has already been debated to death for 48 pages since the end of April? Is one thread not enough for you bingobongo?

[Ned]

Yeah the cheap labour game worked well for the men with the whip hand for a few decades but when the place is surrounded by pauper nations it's all gotta end eh.

I remember a few years ago when my sister was living down in Java she told me about an Austrian woman who moved her shoe factory from there to Ethiopia. Fuuny how you remember some stories like that.

I suppose wage levels here will be pretty similar to those in Indonesia and the Philippines in the next decade or so.

[plachon]

I don't know if there's any TV oldies who can remember as far back as 2003, when there was a debate on the state of the Thai economy and which way it was headed????

That was mid-Toxin era, and I saw all sorts of signs that the economy was heading for a major crash, mainly based on the uncontrolled debt and free-spending ways of the populace, using unearned money, whether rich or poor, central govt. or TAO. I stuck my neck out and said I predicted the "crash" would occur in "2 - 5 years time". Mrentoul (a Bangkok Post sub-editor or similar) was one of the chief protagonists against my argument, as I recall, with just about even numbers going for the crash scenario and for the continued upward trend scenario.

Well, here we are 4 years on, a bit older, greyer and probably no wiser than before and there's only one year to go before my "crash" prediction is up. Will it happen in the next year?

Looking over the state of the economy now, post-Toxin and with the "sufficiency economy" idea trying to kick-in (admittedly not very successfully so far), and realising there is still huge debt around from the TRT era (in fact, far more than 03), then is there a chance that the economy could go negative or even nose-dive any time soon?

My feeling now is, probably not, but it could well dip to near zero growth, which like now would feel like a pretty serious recession and there would have to be major belt-tightening and restructuring all round to accommodate the new reality. Even with a new elected govt in 2008 (assuming it happens at end of year), then next year is going to be tough. The new govt. could try and follow old TRT-style populist policies that ultimately bankrupt the country or they could continue the policy of fiscal prudence and economising on non-essential spending, while gently encouraging new investment to kick start struggling areas and sectors. But I get the feeling that there is going to be so much crumbling, poorly built infrastructure from the last 7 years, that its going to take all the budget just to keep that lot running and maintained. Then there is the Southern question and the chance of a spiralling up of that conflict, which would be another economic disaster, esp. if the tourist areas were involved. Then there is the general political uncertainty and a whole load of other "known unknowns" (cheers Rummie!).

So, in conclusion, I'd now say it's 50/50 if my prediction will actually occur before end of 08.

PS. And by "crash" I meant economy contracting, as opposed to just slowing down to zero.

Anyone else think a "crash" by this definition is possible by end of next year?

[Mid]

Anyone else think a "crash" by this definition is possible by end of next year?

without a democratic government it's almost guaranteed ,

this game is for all the marbles .

[sriracha john]

Oh no!!! They've escaped from the news clippings forum... aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaargh!

Send them back, send them back!!

Yes, we are your worst nightmare.

As for this thread, well... excepted personal insults... I think the article on AsiaTimes is a good "summary" of the situation. Probably a bit harsh or sensationalist (ah those journalists...), but full of common sense.

The title "Thailand’s free-falling economy" is indeed sensationalist.

Ok folks, I'll return now to my home sweet home, the thread : The Thai Economy Is In Crisis.

Original is always better.

Is this thread somehow someway different than the current thread:

The Thai Economy Is In Crisis

Isn't this just a rehash of this old thread that has already been debated to death for 48 pages since the end of April? Is one thread not enough for you bingobongo?

the questions regarding the repetitiveness of this thread are getting repetitive themselves now...

Edited June 20, 2007 by sriracha john

[larvidchr]

Oh no!!! They've escaped from the news clippings forum... aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaargh!

Send them back, send them back!!

Yes, we are your worst nightmare.

As for this thread, well... excepted personal insults... I think the article on AsiaTimes is a good "summary" of the situation. Probably a bit harsh or sensationalist (ah those journalists...), but full of common sense.

The title "Thailand's free-falling economy" is indeed sensationalist.

Ok folks, I'll return now to my home sweet home, the thread : The Thai Economy Is In Crisis.

Original is always better.

Is this thread somehow someway different than the current thread:

The Thai Economy Is In Crisis

Isn't this just a rehash of this old thread that has already been debated to death for 48 pages since the end of April? Is one thread not enough for you bingobongo?

the questions regarding the repetitiveness of this thread are getting repetitive themselves now...

Could you repeat that please?

just couldn't resist

Edited June 20, 2007 by larvidchr

[PeaceBlondie]

After reading post #9789 in the related thread, and all the comments in this thread, I can't see that this quote from the lead article has been directly addressed:

"A 2006 World Bank report identified deficient infrastructure as one of the top three competitiveness concerns for Thai firms. Thai business leaders consistently acknowledge the need to improve infrastructure to keep costs low and remain globally competitive. In recent years, basic transportation logistics are as much as twice as high in Thailand than in many developed countries, weighing against the country's overall competitiveness."

The USA - an historically successful economy - built and maintains a huge interstate, coast to coast, high-speed highway network that makes it possible to go cross country, non-stop in any direction, at 55 to 75 miles per hour. While their rail system fails to move passengers (who fly or drive their cars), containerized shipping systems speed items from the shipping docks to the consumer network very efficiently, from ship to rail to 18-wheelers to the consumers. I see nothing like that in Thailand.

The solution to the education quagmire, as a leading Thai academic pointed out recently in Bangkok, is not to be found in the university system, but starting somewhere in anuban. If education is not reformed wholesale and drasticallly over the next ten years (and it surely will not be), Thailand is doomed to have a workforce like it has now - inadequate for the 21st century.

[ThaiGoon]

I didn't say that revamping that Thai university system was the magic bullet. I was suggesting that we, Thais, are aware of the problems and are trying to solve them.

[PeaceBlondie]

ThaiGoon, I agree that you didn't say it was the magic bullet. Revamping the uni system would help. However, having worked professionally in Thailand's secondary education system, I seriously doubt that Thais - even those who are aware and trying - are going to move the education system past what the US system was a hundred years ago. It's a quagmire of rote instruction, inadequate training of the teachers, rampant CHEATING, copying, lousy exams, automatic promotion to the next grade, curricular content, overcrowded and hot classrooms, heavy teaching loads, a fossilized bureaucracy, lack of statistics - all recipes for failure.

I just can't see how the economy can progress in the long run, with a workforce that comes from that system of mis-education. I understand you're in the USA now, pursuing your education. Can't you see the dramatic differences?

[ThaiGoon]

ThaiGoon, I agree that you didn't say it was the magic bullet. Revamping the uni system would help. However, having worked professionally in Thailand's secondary education system, I seriously doubt that Thais - even those who are aware and trying - are going to move the education system past what the US system was a hundred years ago. It's a quagmire of rote instruction, inadequate training of the teachers, rampant CHEATING, copying, lousy exams, automatic promotion to the next grade, curricular content, overcrowded and hot classrooms, heavy teaching loads, a fossilized bureaucracy, lack of statistics - all recipes for failure.

I just can't see how the economy can progress in the long run, with a workforce that comes from that system of mis-education. I understand you're in the USA now, pursuing your education. Can't you see the dramatic differences?

I'm sorry that I have to laugh at this PB. Speaking from my personal experience (I went to a high school in the US as well), I saw that American kids were much weaker than Thai counterparts in Math and Physics. In Thailand at high school level, we covered the materials in Math and Sciences (be it Physics, Chemistry or Biology) much more boardly and deeply. To say that we aren't even going to suprass what the US was a hundred years ago is just load of pompous BS. No offense.

Sure the Thai system has many failings as you pointed out, but there were also a few aspects (from my personal experience) in which ours was superior to yours.

I agree with you, however, that there's a lot to be done to reform Thai education. But please don't sprout the kind of pompous BS that you just did.

Edited June 21, 2007 by ThaiGoon

[ThaiGoon]

And PB having studied in the US, I've realized that, had it not been the immigrants from China, India, Taiwan, Israel etc, you guys would have lost your techological edge over the majority of the world at least a couple of decades ago. I rarely ever met an American professor in my department, not to mention my classmates. Seriously. If there's a model for an eduation system that Thailand should follow, the US is definitely not it.

[Prakanong]

And PB having studied in the US, I've realized that, had it not been the immigrants from China, India, Taiwan, Israel etc, you guys would have lost your techological edge over the majority of the world at least a couple of decades ago. I rarely ever met an American professor in my department, not to mention my classmates. Seriously. If there's a model for an eduation system that Thailand should follow, the US is definitely not it.

Maybe thats why the American system is superior - it accepts that immigrants are good for the economy ;-)

Then again you might be just meeting people doing the talking and not the walking too - your ivory tower seems to be limitieg your view!

[PeaceBlondie]

I am not offended at your personal appraisal that I posted pompous bullshit. Can I change my BS to fifty years ago?

I scored 719 in math, in 1959, on the old SAT scores before they were adjusted. My daughter teaches chemistry to high school geniuses in the USA. I agree that in math and science, Thai kids do fairly well. However, when I invigilated (proctored) the Matayom 1 and 2 final exams for math, the Thai exams were a joke, including mistakes in the exam which were never corrected. My exam required them to get the answer themselves, instead of guessing multiple choice. One of the Thai exams had no correct answer for one problem, and nothing was done to correct it! My worst student got a zero on my final exam, and a 26% on the Thai multiple choice exam, but he passed.

They are not taught to think. That is, generally speaking in the Thai public system, students are not taught to think, or even the best methods for taking exams. There are exceptions, but based on my direct observation, that is generally true.

This is not a problem that could be fixed within ten years, even in the very unlikely event that the parliament, MOE, local administrators, and old guard teachers honestly tried to change. Go ahead with your own pompous bullshit about how they intend to try to maybe improve some small part of the system, but the results before us already prove that ....my bullshit is better than yours!

[ThaiGoon]

I think I'm being stalked.

Thailand definitely also welcomes immigrants. I'm one of their descendants. We are just a bit relectant to welcome that kind that only come here because they can't really afford prostitutes eleswhere. Hard working and productive immigrants are all definitely welcomed.

[ThaiGoon]

I am not offended at your personal appraisal that I posted pompous bullshit. Can I change my BS to fifty years ago?

You are probably right. Thailand might have to aim for that, as it's pretty obvious that the US education 50 years ago was probably even better than the one in place right now.

Anyway I'm glad to know that you scored 719 in math in the old SAT. I think I scored 780 when I could only say (with thick accent) "Hello and how are you?" in English. (I got the 800 score for my college applications though.)

And I agree that Thailand needs to do something with our education system.

Edited June 21, 2007 by ThaiGoon

[Furbie]

ThaiGoon, I agree that you didn't say it was the magic bullet. Revamping the uni system would help. However, having worked professionally in Thailand's secondary education system, I seriously doubt that Thais - even those who are aware and trying - are going to move the education system past what the US system was a hundred years ago. It's a quagmire of rote instruction, inadequate training of the teachers, rampant CHEATING, copying, lousy exams, automatic promotion to the next grade, curricular content, overcrowded and hot classrooms, heavy teaching loads, a fossilized bureaucracy, lack of statistics - all recipes for failure.

I just can't see how the economy can progress in the long run, with a workforce that comes from that system of mis-education. I understand you're in the USA now, pursuing your education. Can't you see the dramatic differences?

I'm sorry that I have to laugh at this PB. Speaking from my personal experience (I went to a high school in the US as well), I saw that American kids were much weaker than Thai counterparts in Math and Physics. In Thailand at high school level, we covered the materials in Math and Sciences (be it Physics, Chemistry or Biology) much more boardly and deeply. To say that we aren't even going to suprass what the US was a hundred years ago is just load of pompous BS. No offense.

Sure the Thai system has many failings as you pointed out, but there were also a few aspects (from my personal experience) in which ours was superior to yours.

I agree with you, however, that there's a lot to be done to reform Thai education. But please don't sprout the kind of pompous BS that you just did.

This may be true at your average school, but not your better or specialized high schools. Children who are gifted in math or science in the US are placed in special programs and many attend special high schools - they are not in with the general school population for these classes.

I do not know where you went to high school in the US, but believe me, the sheer number of students we have who are good in math and science will trounce Thailand - though we may not win on a percentage basis. But remember, your better math and science students from many countries will wind up relocating to the US anyway - thanks for that.

[bkkandrew]

Its quite curious why Thaigoon should elect to study in the US, when he believes the education is inferior to that of his native country and he is surrounded by incometetant students.

Perhaps his fabled judgement failed on this occasion...

Edited June 21, 2007 by bkkandrew

[wolfmanjack]

I think I'm being stalked.

Thailand definitely also welcomes immigrants. I'm one of their descendants. Hard working and productive immigrants are all definitely welcomed.

You should have posted this in the joke section. To be realistic you should have said thailand used to welcome immigrants. It is almost impossible to become an immigrant here. That is why we all have non immigrant visas that have to be renewed every year.

PB,

Since you are in the educational system here, do they teach Calculus in the thai High schools here ? I was never very good in science or biology but I started in the advance mathematics program when i was in 6th grade. As a junior i study trig and as a senior I studied calculus. Out of a graduating class of 300 we had 90 kids Taking calculus. Does thailand match that percentage ?? I can't see how when the system is automatic pass. But maybe. How many kids never even make it to 12th grade ??? Many drop out or are kicked out.

I also have to say that maybe thaigoon is right that the school system 50 years ago was better than it is now. My sister lives in Florida and they bus kids around to make the schools integrated. Even when I went to school I thought that they should let the kids that want to go to University go to one set of classes and the ones that do not want to attend University go to more technical school type classes. there are too many kids in High School that do not want to be there and drag the other kids in there class down with them. Let these kids learn a trade skill. Most, not all, kids by the time they are 15 years old know if they want to attend University or not.