Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[Naam]

Facts Naam

Churchill,

the only fact i believe in is the price of gold expressed in a certain mixture of my personal reference currencies. everything else is totally irrelevant. moreover, should i arrive tomorrow, or even today, at the conclusion that gold will not fulfill my expectations my (easily tradeable) gold will be gone using some mouse clicks or a phone call.

[cloudhopper]

B of A calls for $2000 gold. Too bad they didn't buy some instead of Countryside...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/bank-america-gold-upgraded-aaaa-12-month-price-target-2000

[cloudhopper]

Another $2000 gold sighting, this time from a more experienced source. The only thing he said I didn't agree with was "This is no time to be a wise ass."

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/8/13_Russell_-_$2,000_Gold_Shortly,_Then_$2,500,_$5,000_%26_$10,000.html

[cloudhopper]

Still tricky after all these years, or why we're all Keynesians now.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/today-40th-anniversary-nixon-ending-gold-standard-and-creating-modern-fiat-monetary-system

[cloudhopper]

While I don't agree with the author that the global currencies will necessarily die in a hyperinflation at least he understands that gold is a store of wealth, not an investment.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/egon-von-greyerz-too-late-jump-goldwagon

[ExpatJ]

Keep an eye on Italian and Spanish 10 yr bonds yields- if they reach 6% or head in that direction rapidly- then we are heading to another EURO crisis moment - but this will be very good for gold prices.

Italian bond yields ticked up to 5% today ...

[Naam]

Keep an eye on Italian and Spanish 10 yr bonds yields- if they reach 6% or head in that direction rapidly- then we are heading to another EURO crisis moment - but this will be very good for gold prices.

Italian bond yields ticked up to 5% today ...

Italy has debt (bonds) in various currencies and various maturities. which currency and maturity are you referring to?

[ExpatJ]

Keep an eye on Italian and Spanish 10 yr bonds yields- if they reach 6% or head in that direction rapidly- then we are heading to another EURO crisis moment - but this will be very good for gold prices.

Italian bond yields ticked up to 5% today ...

Italy has debt (bonds) in various currencies and various maturities. which currency and maturity are you referring to?

Naam, you are being naughty. You know perfectly well what the maturity and currency is when one talks of italian 10 yr bonds.

[cloudhopper]

Interesting thesis on gold and the SNB

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/gold-and-snb

[Naam]

Keep an eye on Italian and Spanish 10 yr bonds yields- if they reach 6% or head in that direction rapidly- then we are heading to another EURO crisis moment - but this will be very good for gold prices.

Italian bond yields ticked up to 5% today ...

Italy has debt (bonds) in various currencies and various maturities. which currency and maturity are you referring to?

Naam, you are being naughty. You know perfectly well what the maturity and currency is when one talks of italian 10 yr bonds.

quite a number of people read this thread who do not know perfectly well what you referred to. and that applies to my [not so] humble self too because since some time the 10Y bonds of the PIGS are not used as benchmarks as they distort the the real picture. benchmarks used presently to evaluate the PIGS' debt situation are short term treasuries and primarily the 2Y bonds.

for the record:

presently a 10Y bond, denominated in EUR, debtor Italy, does not exist. the closest maturity is ~9Y (june 15, 2020). this bond trades presently at a yield to maturity of less than 4%, ISIN is XS0222189564.

highest yielding Italian debt is presently a bond denominated in USD, maturity 2023, YTD 6.0%, ISIN US465410AH18.

[ExpatJ]

Keep an eye on Italian and Spanish 10 yr bonds yields- if they reach 6% or head in that direction rapidly- then we are heading to another EURO crisis moment - but this will be very good for gold prices.

Italian bond yields ticked up to 5% today ...

Italy has debt (bonds) in various currencies and various maturities. which currency and maturity are you referring to?

Naam, you are being naughty. You know perfectly well what the maturity and currency is when one talks of italian 10 yr bonds.

quite a number of people read this thread who do not know perfectly well what you referred to. and that applies to my [not so] humble self too because since some time the 10Y bonds of the PIGS are not used as benchmarks as they distort the the real picture. benchmarks used presently to evaluate the PIGS' debt situation are short term treasuries and primarily the 2Y bonds.

for the record:

presently a 10Y bond, denominated in EUR, debtor Italy, does not exist. the closest maturity is ~9Y (june 15, 2020). this bond trades presently at a yield to maturity of less than 4%, ISIN is XS0222189564.

highest yielding Italian debt is presently a bond denominated in USD, maturity 2023, YTD 6.0%, ISIN US465410AH18.

You are right not everyone knows (and afterall why should they if they dont invest in bonds)- 10 yr year Italian bond is a government bond, in Euros with a maturity of 10 years.

Incidently, I thought the French/German meeting last night was useless- zero meaningful outputs- no increase in the bail out fund, no euro bonds, no new financial architecture (other than a useless heads of state meeting a couple of times a year). The only other proposal was for a tax on financial transactions, which is likely to annoy the market players and encourage them to attack country bonds more than anything else. Based on this, i expect another financial attack on Italian, French or PIG (bonds) to happen sooner rather than later.

[Naam]

You are right not everyone knows (and afterall why should they if they dont invest in bonds)- 10 yr year Italian bond is a government bond, in Euros with a maturity of 10 years.

Incidently, I thought the French/German meeting last night was useless- zero meaningful outputs- no increase in the bail out fund, no euro bonds, no new financial architecture (other than a useless heads of state meeting a couple of times a year). The only other proposal was for a tax on financial transactions, which is likely to annoy the market players and encourage them to attack country bonds more than anything else. Based on this, i expect another financial attack on Italian, French or PIG (bonds) to happen sooner rather than later.

but with a yield of ~4 and not 5%. where did you get the 5% from?

Italian bond yields ticked up to 5% today...

[ExpatJ]

You are right not everyone knows (and afterall why should they if they dont invest in bonds)- 10 yr year Italian bond is a government bond, in Euros with a maturity of 10 years.

Incidently, I thought the French/German meeting last night was useless- zero meaningful outputs- no increase in the bail out fund, no euro bonds, no new financial architecture (other than a useless heads of state meeting a couple of times a year). The only other proposal was for a tax on financial transactions, which is likely to annoy the market players and encourage them to attack country bonds more than anything else. Based on this, i expect another financial attack on Italian, French or PIG (bonds) to happen sooner rather than later.

but with a yield of ~4 and not 5%. where did you get the 5% from?

Italian bond yields ticked up to 5% today...

They hit 5% in the afternoon then dropped down again.

[flying]

From Harvey

Venezuela tells Bank of England to ship the gold back to Venezuela Plans to Move Reserve Funds

Venezuela has formally asked the Bank of England for its gold that is stored there to be returned to Caracas. They are also asking the other foreign depositories for the rest of its gold.

Venezuela has 99 tonnes of gold stored at the Bank of England. It has a total of 212 tonnes so 113 tonnes of gold will come from the BIS and the Federal Reserve Bank of NY.

I would like to point out to you that the gold held at the Bank of England is not earmarked gold. It is on deposit there and the Bank can do whatever it likes with the gold. However it is a liability to them and the bank will fail if they cannot return the gold to Venezuela. The gold at the Federal Bank of NY is earmarked gold and the bank receives fees for its safekeeping. The gold held at the BIS is a site deposit and generally the BIS takes ownership of gold in a foreign jurisdiction in return for needed cash to a nation.

It looks like the BIS has site deposits of gold for Venezuela with the Federal Bank of NY.

UPDATE 2-Critics raise alarm over Venezuela reserves move

[cloudhopper]

Kissed 1820.

ZH reports Russian stock market halted and some trading rules invoked in NYSE.

Beautiful evening here in Pai but something must be causing all this excitement...

Edited August 18, 2011 by cloudhopper

[ExpatJ]

Kissed 1820.

ZH reports Russian stock market halted and some trading rules invoked in NYSE.

Beautiful evening here in Pai but something must be causing all this excitement...

The reason is an unnamed European bank was forced to borrow 500 million US$ from the ECB because they couldnt raise the money on the open market- thats also why Lehman, Bears failed, because people stopped lending them. Worrying- but good for those of us with big gold positions

[flying]

As usual on these types of days the last hour of the market (US) before the close is looking frantic.

Gold is setting new highs...again & is also honing in on inflation adjusted price of the often touted 1980's highs.

Next week is the monthly options expiration on the Comex metals market so... we can expect a pullback in gold as usual & possibly more margin increases

But...last month was not as bad as usual in spite of their games & it will be interesting to see what next week brings.

Edited August 18, 2011 by flying

[cloudhopper]

Gold is setting new highs...again & is also honing in on inflation adjusted price of the often touted 1980's highs.

They certainly seem to want more in Asia this morning - just hit 1833.

I hit the full time workforce when gold was last peaking; amazing to think that the purchasing power of the USD has been cut in half just since then...

[Naam]

Kissed 1820.

ZH reports Russian stock market halted and some trading rules invoked in NYSE.

Beautiful evening here in Pai but something must be causing all this excitement...

The reason is an unnamed European bank was forced to borrow 500 million US$ from the ECB because they couldnt raise the money on the open market- thats also why Lehman, Bears failed, because people stopped lending them. Worrying- but good for those of us with big gold positions

interbank market (bank-to-bank lending) drying out. good for those with gold and good for those with a heap of cash.

best for those with gold and a heap of cash

Edited August 19, 2011 by Naam

[flying]

They certainly seem to want more in Asia this morning - just hit 1833.

I hit the full time workforce when gold was last peaking; amazing to think that the purchasing power of the USD has been cut in half just since then...

Yes & if you want to buy a 1oz coin it is now at $1945 USD each

You started working full time in 1980?

Jeez that is not fair. Sounds like your retired & I am still working...yet I started well before 1980

[cloudhopper]

You started working full time in 1980?

Actually July '79 'til the end of '98 according to my SS summary, which I am nearly a decade away from collecting whatever it might be paying out then. And during which time I had to double-contribute as both employer and -ee I might add.

That was a time of economic opportunity in the US that won't be seen again IMO flying.

BTW the inedible metal with no intrinsic value just hit 1840 USD

Edited August 19, 2011 by cloudhopper

[flying]

Actually July '79 'til the end of '98 according to my SS summary, which I am nearly a decade away from collecting whatever it might be paying out then. And during which time I had to double-contribute as both employer and -ee I might add.

That was a time of economic opportunity in the US that won't be seen again IMO flying.

BTW the inedible metal with no intrinsic value just hit 1840 USD

Lucky guy

I have been self employed the whole time but as luck would have it during the boom I was

helping an X-inlaw with their business. Dumb in hindsight...otherwise I might also be retired with you

Like you I have a decade away from any handout that I have paid into.

BTW2 Yes I see the worthless metal is doing quite well & now at $1842 or $1956 oz for the real deal

[edgarfriendly]

Next week is the monthly options expiration on the Comex metals market so... we can expect a pullback in gold as usual & possibly more margin increases

source?

[flying]

Next week is the monthly options expiration on the Comex metals market so... we can expect a pullback in gold as usual & possibly more margin increases

source?

It is a monthly event.No source needed

monthly comex options expire

but if you would like to know the dates for 2011

I will attach the calender from the source

2011_expiration_calendar_metals.pdf

Historically the metals take a dive....sometimes small sometimes larger

Size is dependent on various things.

As I said last month was mild

Watch next week & take note.

Nothing to get to worked up over if your long physical.

As you can see the trend for the past 10 years remains intact.

If you would like to read the procedures they are also posted on the Comex site

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/comex_option_expiration.html

Edited August 19, 2011 by flying

[churchill]

Tiny South Pacific island to accept Star Wars coins as real money

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/technology/2011/08/star-wars-coins-niue.html

[flying]

gold jumping up in Asia

Closed at 1825 in USA today

Now at 1865 in Asia

Edited August 19, 2011 by flying

[flying]

I always update spread sheets on Friday's after markets close

Gold moved $106.80 per ounce this last week

A little over 6%

Last week close $1747/oz

This week $1854/oz

[Naam]

the number of anal-lusters who warn the gold bubble might burst increases every day.

[flying]

the number of anal-lusters who warn the gold bubble might burst increases every day.

Yes I noticed that heavily played today here in the US too.

I figure I have heard them say the same even as gold was knocking on $1000/oz's door

I do not think they are any smarter today

I think I will continue to use my own eyes & ears to determine when things that have caused gold to rise subside.

I will then sell faster than you can say jumping jack flash

[ExpatJ]

Just saw on CNBC one trader saying 2000$ by Thanks Giving.