Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[binjalin]

govt"s all over the world deem anything they see fit to be illegal ... drugs , alcohol , guns , gay marriage , burkhas , taliban , ..short selling ( remember that ) and on it goes .... dont kid yourself that something like this could not happen .....

But not in Thailand as the Chinese Thais own almost everythng here and millions of Thais have a few baht her and there and no Thai government would dare try and 'confiscate' their gold

The people who should worry are those foolish enough to let 'custodians' hold their physical

[cdmtdm]

yea but if your a farang with gold , what u think they will let u have it ... law passed only thai citizens can own gold with proof of purchase ..... poof gone ....

[binjalin]

yea but if your a farang with gold , what u think they will let u have it ... law passed only thai citizens can own gold with proof of purchase ..... poof gone ....

If's and an's and pots and pans

[cdmtdm]

gold and sold ......

[Jayman]

^^^^^^

and that's just a taste of what you get when you join.

http://ww.naams-nonsense.org

lame diversion! scared to comment on facts? such as "gold and inflation" or "FBI up JPM bankers àrses"?

I am diverting from your garbage about the space time continuum?

Hard to respond to such garbage as you have posted. It is obvious it doesn't deserve a serious response.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/16/us-jpmorgan-departures-idUSBRE84C0EP20120516

FBI probes JPMorgan, shareholders back Dimon

You're from outer space.. if the FBI is probing them doesn't that mean they are up their a$$?

[Jayman]

stop denying and face reality that gold has been going down for the last 32 years because it's "intrinsic" as well as its fluctuating market value could not match inflation. period!

Gold has been going down for the last 32 years? Wow, you really are from outer space.

You better hurry and sell all yours before it's completely worthless. Or are you banking the 32 year bear market is coming to an end soon?

When are you going to face reality that "inflation" is just a cover up word for "your paper money is being devalued" and is "worth less" than before (ie. has less value)?

If anything is worth less, it's paper money. To deny that is not facing reality.

Edited May 16, 2012 by Jayman

[cdmtdm]

2012 and still no reforms in place ... its funny really 2 bill gone . a few people sacked , FBI ..one or two arrests perhaps a jail sentence ..finished... rob a bank and see what u get for jail time .....

[Jayman]

oopss.. didn't mean for you to see that.. how do I take it back from the public record... delete.. delete!!

Goldman Sachs e-mails show illegal naked short selling was bank's policy

By Matt Taibbi

Rolling Stone, New York

Tuesday, May 15, 2012

http://www.rollingst...ally-release...

It doesn't happen often, but sometimes God smiles on us. Last week he smiled on investigative reporters everywhere, when the lawyers for Goldman, Sachs slipped on one whopper of a legal banana peel, inadvertently delivering some of the bank's darker secrets into the hands of the public.

.....

looks like the entire rollingstones website is down but you can see the cache of the article on google. I would paste it all here but not sure I can reproduce the entire RS article here.

Here is a reprint...

http://www.economist.com/blogs/schumpeter/2012/05/short-selling-litigation

Edited May 16, 2012 by Jayman

[midas]

oopss.. didn't mean for you to see that.. how do I take it back from the public record... delete.. delete!!

Goldman Sachs e-mails show illegal naked short selling was bank's policy

By Matt Taibbi

Rolling Stone, New York

Tuesday, May 15, 2012

http://www.rollingst...ally-release...

It doesn't happen often, but sometimes God smiles on us. Last week he smiled on investigative reporters everywhere, when the lawyers for Goldman, Sachs slipped on one whopper of a legal banana peel, inadvertently delivering some of the bank's darker secrets into the hands of the public.

.....

looks like the entire rollingstones website is down but you can see the cache of the article on google. I would paste it all here but not sure I can reproduce the entire RS article here.

i always get an " Access Denied " message when i try to read an article in Rolling Stone ?

[cdmtdm]

thats amazing ....lets see them squirm out of this one ... here this will lighten things up a little

[midas]

thats amazing ....lets see them squirm out of this one ... here this will lighten things up a little

The whole bloody lot of them should be in jail.... Corzine, Dimon , Blankfein...

But no the law enforcement authorities prefer to concentrate on thse kinds of " offences "

Crazy world . Much more serious than fraud

Florida Man Charged With Felony for Allegedly Stealing $1 Cup of Soda From McDonald's

" Abaire could face five years in prison if he is convicted of the felony. "

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/abc-blogs/florida-man-charged-felony-allegedly-stealing-1-cup-002830215--abc-news-topstories.html

[12DrinkMore]

]thats amazing ....lets see them squirm out of this one ... here this will lighten things up a little

And quite possibly the bastards will indeed come out on top..

http://blogs.smartmo...SM_home_blogsum

J.P. Morgan’s appetite for complex credit bets is matched by an appetite for its own shares. In March, when the company announced a dividend increase, it also authorized a $15 billion stock repurchase program, with $12 billion of the funds earmarked for this year. Companies buy back shares in an effort to make remaining shares more valuable, thereby putting their surplus cash to use for investors.

Whatever J.P. Morgan loses on its soured trade — the bank warns it may lose an additional $1 billion before unwinding the positions — it also stands to save plenty by carrying out its share repurchases at a lower price. It could take the bank one quarter, maybe two, to make its money back in savings, reckons Marty Mosby, an analyst with Guggenheim Securities.

Consider: The $2 billion trade loss is offset by gains on other trades, resulting in a $1 billion net loss so far. J.P. Morgan will be able to use this loss to offset other profits for tax purposes, effectively making it a $650 million loss after taxes.

Mr. Mosby expects JP Morgan to repurchase 60 million shares this quarter. He notes that the stock price has fallen by $10 to $36 and change since the end of the first quarter. (The Wall Street Journal first reported on the massive derivatives trade on April 5.) The discount may thus save the bank $600 million on its repurchases — nearly enough to offset that $650 million after-tax loss.

If the stock price stays at its current level for the rest of the year, J.P. Morgan could save much more than it lost.

Of course, whether that savings on share repurchases ultimately proves a good deal for investors depends on JP Morgan’s stock price recovering in future years. As the surprise trade loss illustrates, Wall Street’s earnings estimates for complex banks should be viewed cautiously. But the estimates bode well for J.P. Morgan shares.

A $1 billion net trading loss during the second quarter would reduce earnings by around 17 cents per share. Analysts over the past week have already lowered their full-year consensus estimate by 27 cents. Nonetheless, J.P. Morgan’s earnings are expected to rise to $4.71 per share this year from $4.48 last year. Early forecasts for next year call for earnings of $5.55 a share.

If those estimates prove anything near accurate, and if the stock price responds to future earnings growth — two big ifs — J.P. Morgan’s massive loss may turn into an even larger gain by this time next year.

Edited May 16, 2012 by 12DrinkMore

[Jayman]

JPM is now being sued by shareholders over the loss.

[flying]

I agree that it is the paper gold market that is really at hand for these moves. It is not real gold and it would be impossible for everyone holding paper gold to turn it to physical gold as it doesn't exist.

Musical Chairs

[Naam]

Standard Bank

Focus: Gold moves lower—we keep the faith

Gold has fallen much more than we anticipated. We expected support buying to appear around the $1,590 level. While support for gold at this level held for a few days, liquidation of gold holdings resumed and remains the dominant theme. We clearly underestimated the extent of liquidation taking place. However, we still believe that this will be temporary.

The obvious question to ask is whether anything has changed in what we see as “the underlying causal drivers for gold”. If there were changes, it would imply we should find a greater probability of gold falling much lower in the coming weeks, or months for that matter. We believe that the answer is no, nothing has changed. In fact, we believe that the causal drivers have turned marginally bullish for gold relative to a month ago. As a result we believe gold has increasingly become undervalued relative to where we see fair value at $1,640.

Firstly, gold’s slide has to be put in perspective with other commodities. The sell-off is broad-based. On a one month basis gold is down 7%, Brent crude down 6.7%, platinum 9.6% and copper 4.4%. Even EM currencies such as the Brazilian Real and the South African Rand have depreciated 7.9% and 5% respectively against the US dollar over the same period. Liquidation is taking place irrespective of market fundamentals as all commodities are painted with the same brush. While the market prefers to hold dollars, we know that the dollar is only a short term driver of gold. For example, we have seen gold at various levels between $600 and $1,600 for a EURUSD exchange rate at 1.28 over the past 5 years. If the dollar was a long term driver, this would not have been possible. As a result we believe turning structurally bearish on gold purely because of a stronger dollar (or weaker euro) would be wrong.

Turning to what we believe drives gold in the long run: we believe that the dominant long-term causal drivers for gold are global liquidity (proxied by global foreign exchange holdings excluding gold plus the Fed’s balance sheet) and real interest rates (proxied for the 5-year US inflation linked bond). Global liquidity as we measure it continues to grind higher, not lower. Secondly, real interest rates are in deep negative territory. In fact, while we prefer to look at the 5-year US inflation linked bond yield, we note that the 10-year US inflation linked bond yield dropped to all time lows today at -0.42%. This in our view remains bullish for gold.

[Naam]

I agree that it is the paper gold market that is really at hand for these moves. It is not real gold and it would be impossible for everyone holding paper gold to turn it to physical gold as it doesn't exist.

Musical Chairs

nobody knows whether or when the music will stop. three decades are a big part of an investor's life, based on the assumption that the average investor is age 30-35 before he is able to achieve a position providing a substantial income which in turn enables him to set aside substantial savings to accumulate enough wealth who's income finances his retirement years without drawing on the principal.

[Naam]

thats amazing ....lets see them squirm out of this one ... here this will lighten things up a little

The whole bloody lot of them should be in jail.... Corzine, Dimon , Blankfein...

But no the law enforcement authorities prefer to concentrate on thse kinds of " offences "

Crazy world . Much more serious than fraud

Florida Man Charged With Felony for Allegedly Stealing $1 Cup of Soda From McDonald's

" Abaire could face five years in prison if he is convicted of the felony. "

http://news.yahoo.co...topstories.html

when i was living in Florida the case of a judge sentencing a Georgia teenager to several years in prison for stealing some ice cream made big headlines.

i'm not sure about Dimon and Blankfein but that Corzine walks around free instead of being in the slammer is a big shame!

[Naam]

stop denying and face reality that gold has been going down for the last 32 years because it's "intrinsic" as well as its fluctuating market value could not match inflation. period!

Gold has been going down for the last 32 years? Wow, you really are from outer space.

You better hurry and sell all yours before it's completely worthless. Or are you banking the 32 year bear market is coming to an end soon?

When are you going to face reality that "inflation" is just a cover up word for "your paper money is being devalued" and is "worth less" than before (ie. has less value)?

If anything is worth less, it's paper money. To deny that is not facing reality.

somebody who denies that the value of Gold has been going down since its peak in 1980 lacks the knowledge of basic arithmetics and he has of course no idea what the word "inflation" means!

normally i wouldn't waste a minute to discuss any economics and/or investment with such a person. but this is a public forum where quite a number of people look and ask for advice as well as information. that's the main reason why i am exposing bullshit, wet dreams and wishful thinking by stating facts which can be verified.

facts:

-the inflation adjusted 1980 peak gold price of $ 800/ounce is equivalent to 2,324 (800*1.035^31) "2011 US-Dollars" using a very conservative and benevolent meager inflation rate of only 3.5%

-even though everybody is aware that these 3.5% are the product of lying and bullshitting politicians and their central bank cronies who are political appointees, that rate can be used for demonstration purposes.

-comparing the calculated $2,324 with the 2011 peak of 1,900 the result is a loss of -22% respectively -18% depending whether calculated down/up or up down.

-when using the prevailing gold price of $ 1,540 the result is -51% respectively -34%

no bla-bla can change the afore-mentioned facts. period!

[Jayman]

stop denying and face reality that gold has been going down for the last 32 years because it's "intrinsic" as well as its fluctuating market value could not match inflation. period!

Gold has been going down for the last 32 years? Wow, you really are from outer space.

You better hurry and sell all yours before it's completely worthless. Or are you banking the 32 year bear market is coming to an end soon?

When are you going to face reality that "inflation" is just a cover up word for "your paper money is being devalued" and is "worth less" than before (ie. has less value)?

If anything is worth less, it's paper money. To deny that is not facing reality.

somebody who denies that the value of Gold has been going down since its peak in 1980 lacks the knowledge of basic arithmetics and he has of course no idea what the word "inflation" means!

normally i wouldn't waste a minute to discuss any economics and/or investment with such a person. but this is a public forum where quite a number of people look and ask for advice as well as information. that's the main reason why i am exposing bullshit, wet dreams and wishful thinking by stating facts which can be verified.

facts:

-the inflation adjusted 1980 peak gold price of $ 800/ounce is equivalent to 2,324 (800*1.035^31) "2011 US-Dollars" using a very conservative and benevolent meager inflation rate of only 3.5%

-even though everybody is aware that these 3.5% are the product of lying and bullshitting politicians and their central bank cronies who are political appointees, that rate can be used for demonstration purposes.

-comparing the calculated $2,324 with the 2011 peak of 1,900 the result is a loss of -22% respectively -18% depending whether calculated down/up or up down.

-when using the prevailing gold price of $ 1,540 the result is -51% respectively -34%

no bla-bla can change the afore-mentioned facts. period!

No doubt you are an old timer and all that cool-aide you've been drinking has completely brainwashed you.

You believe whatever you want Lt. If you own gold or not I couldn't care any less. But the nonsense you spew from day to day is all over the board and so completely condescending that it's obvious how full of yourself you are. You see how I address you directly instead of the stupid games you play. I figure at your age you would have learned how to talk to people instead on down to them them your castle in Pattaya.

You can pick whatever 32 year (and why not 35 year?) period you want and play the numbers game to justify the value of today's gold as down over the last 32 years but any intelligent person will see right through all your BS. It's no coincidence that you pick the period right after the gold standard was dropped to start you downtrend period.

How many oz of gold did it take to buy a car back in the '20's when gold was $20 an oz and how many oz of gold does it take to buy a car today? The fact remains that gold has not lost it's value as you have stated but rather the paper is much much more worthless than it was back then. You want to play the supply and demand card then look at how the supply of gold has grown vs the supply of paper money. As since when does your dollar adjust for inflation? If you had $700 back in 1980 and held it like you did gold then how much do you have today ohh might god of math? $700. Stop trying to fool these ppl. Next you will say, well I invested that $700 in apple stock and just sold it at the peak so my $700 is worth $10,000 and your 1 oz of gold is only worth $1500.

All this cool-aide talk of how $700 then is worth x amount now is garbage. Fact is I have never seen any of my paper money start to multiply because the cost of goods are increasing.

Edited May 16, 2012 by Jayman

[ArtfulD]

stop denying and face reality that gold has been going down for the last 32 years because it's "intrinsic" as well as its fluctuating market value could not match inflation. period!

Gold has been going down for the last 32 years? Wow, you really are from outer space.

You better hurry and sell all yours before it's completely worthless. Or are you banking the 32 year bear market is coming to an end soon?

When are you going to face reality that "inflation" is just a cover up word for "your paper money is being devalued" and is "worth less" than before (ie. has less value)?

If anything is worth less, it's paper money. To deny that is not facing reality.

somebody who denies that the value of Gold has been going down since its peak in 1980 lacks the knowledge of basic arithmetics and he has of course no idea what the word "inflation" means!

normally i wouldn't waste a minute to discuss any economics and/or investment with such a person. but this is a public forum where quite a number of people look and ask for advice as well as information. that's the main reason why i am exposing bullshit, wet dreams and wishful thinking by stating facts which can be verified.

facts:

-the inflation adjusted 1980 peak gold price of $ 800/ounce is equivalent to 2,324 (800*1.035^31) "2011 US-Dollars" using a very conservative and benevolent meager inflation rate of only 3.5%

-even though everybody is aware that these 3.5% are the product of lying and bullshitting politicians and their central bank cronies who are political appointees, that rate can be used for demonstration purposes.

-comparing the calculated $2,324 with the 2011 peak of 1,900 the result is a loss of -22% respectively -18% depending whether calculated down/up or up down.

-when using the prevailing gold price of $ 1,540 the result is -51% respectively -34%

no bla-bla can change the afore-mentioned facts. period!

During those years the party was still going and more debt was created to keep it going, the value of main currencies was not in question because everyone thought such debts were managable. Now we are seeing these debts are no longer as managable thus the potential for defaults, mass devaluing of currencies etc. I think this is what makes gold an attractive safe haven now depending on your circumstances and exposure.

You point out that gold if it kept up with inflation the price should be higher. Rather than pointing it out as a bad investment over the past 30 years (which indeed it was) in todays climate your figures point out that it needs to rise a further $800 to reach the inflated dollar. Now with further rampant inflation likely, golds time has come as somewhere to preserve net worth. Rampant inflation will need (eventually no matter how many people cry about it) higher interest rates Higher interest rates (which have been kept too low for far too long) will be bad for real estate and for the stock market, and no doubt money in a savings account will get paid a lot lower than is required to keep up with inflation.

[Naam]

You point out that gold if it kept up with inflation the price should be higher. Rather than pointing it out as a bad investment over the past 30 years (which indeed it was)...

rather than wasting my time on repeated bla-bla meant to divert from your comment "Gold has been going down for the last 32 years? Wow, you really are from outer space" i will now spend some time in my pool.

[farang000999]

Naam, I don't entirely think it is fair to use peak gold 1980 as a starting point. Look, we know that the politics involved in 1980 and gold were a special event. Many people got killed by Paul Volker. Volker had a set of brace balls. He destroyed the gold bugs of the 1980's.

Bernanke is no Paul Volker.

[farang000999]

If some drunk farang decides to tip a waitress 1000 baht and the largest tip she gets for the next 20 years is 50 baht adjusted for inflaiton, do we say that her tips are down 95% from her peak tip? yes, gold spiked up astronomically, it was not so much a bubble as it was a bad investment and miscalculation of the testicle size of Paul Volker, then it declined substantially.

[churchill]

deposits leaving China .. http://www.macrobusi...-fleeing-china/

and Greece .. Spain .. Italy .. France ...Portugal .. and on ..

to form the coming bubble in USD and Gold ?

and the start of a trend from pension funds ..

Okayama becomes first Japan Pension Fund to embrace Gold

http://www.bullionstreet.com/news/okayama-becomes-first-japan-pension-fund-to-embrace-gold/1840

Edited May 17, 2012 by churchill

[churchill]

Flight of the euros

http://ftalphaville...._medium=twitter

Greeks not alone in bank savings exodus

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/17/us-banks-deposits-idUSBRE84G0MG20120517

Edited May 17, 2012 by churchill

[Naam]

Naam, I don't entirely think it is fair to use peak gold 1980 as a starting point. Look, we know that the politics involved in 1980 and gold were a special event. Many people got killed by Paul Volker. Volker had a set of brace balls. He destroyed the gold bugs of the 1980's.

Bernanke is no Paul Volker.

Farang,

there are two schools with different explanations why gold hit for a short time the 800 mark and then dropped like a stone. one blames Volcker and his brutal rate hikes the other one blames the Hunt brothers (Nelson and Bunker) who tried to corner the silver market, nearly succeeded and drove silver to unseen heights. historically gold and silver moved in a tight correlation of ~16:1 and that meant when silver reached $50/ounce gold moved to $800/ounce.

the latter (silver pushing gold) seems in my view more likely because US interest crossed 10% already in july 1978. this already should have prevented gold to reach more than $250 and in autumn 1979 fed funds touched nearly 16% without hampering the further rise of gold.

if the theory "Volcker's actions killed gold" was valid then why did gold not move years later when interest rates dropped to a "mere" 6% in 1986/87? fact is that the gold price did not move in "inverse tandem" to interest rates for more than 20 years between 1981 and 2002 whereas interest rates fluctuated wildly and moved from 20% to 2.5% during this period.

but whatever, most probably we'll never find out the real reason and perhaps other reasons existed of which we have no knowledge.

[Naam]

Flight of the euros

http://ftalphaville...._medium=twitter

Greeks not alone in bank savings exodus

http://www.reuters.c...E84G0MG20120517

in what way is the "Flight of the euros" relevant to the gold price and to this thread. is the "Flight of the euros" responsible for the recent drop of the gold price?

or does the strength of the currency €UR which appreciated vs. the US-Dollar by 47% during the last 12 years warrant the expression "flight"?

[midas]

Flight of the euros

http://ftalphaville...._medium=twitter

Greeks not alone in bank savings exodus

http://www.reuters.c...E84G0MG20120517

very bumpy ride ahead....

THE National Police telephone service for placing a denuncia (902 102 112) is temporarily unavailable due to the service provider filing for bankruptcy according to Spanish Press.

“The payments for this are all up to date with the service provider” and that the company were forced to file bankruptcy ‘because of business problems’ causing this to suspend the service according to Police sources.

National Police are making all possible efforts for the telephone service for placing a denuncia to have the service resume as soon as possible according to the authorities (Direccion General).

Labour courses for prostitution

Valencia is offered one-week courses at a cost of 100 euros, to prostitutes or those considering going into the profession, which include information on legislation, economic analysis of the profession and sexual techniques.

The lights are going out on many Spanish motorways. The privately run roads do not have enough users to maintain the lighting and the Government are busy also trying to save money on public roads. More than half the highways, which have lighting installed, are now either switched it off or have inadequate lighting.

http://xornalgalicia.com/index.php?name=News&file=article&sid=84385

[churchill]

'in what way is the "Flight of the euros" relevant to the gold price and to this thread. is the "Flight of the euros" responsible for the recent drop of the gold price? '

Sure Naam the Euro Crisis will not effect the price of Gold ..

or does the strength of the currency €UR which appreciated vs. the US-Dollar by 47% during the last 12 years warrant the expression "flight"?

did the Euro get stronger or the USD weaker .... and aren't we looking at the now ....

[Naam]

we are looking at the "now" and the "now" tells us clearly that the crisis in Europe has until "now" not affected the gold price in a positive manner. it even looks as if the opposite has happened.

as for "crisis will effect" the jury is still out.

by the way, is it possible to avoid non-valeur expressions like "Euro crisis" and replace them with more specific words like "EUR crisis" when referring to the currency or "EU crisis" when referring to the European Union or "PIGS crisis" when referring to certain countries?