Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[muchogra]

If you ask people who read a lot, thus knowledgeable, if gold is going to surpass 1600 now, most would likely tell you it will not. In fact, who would have guessed it had gone up to 1596 or thereabout today. Wow, extraordinary, who would have had guessed it? I guess nobody. But it did!

I was long on Dec at the same time I covered my short of Auguest. Today, I'm short on August as of now. Need a good scissor now!

[Jayman]

If you ask people who read a lot, thus knowledgeable, if gold is going to surpass 1600 now, most would likely tell you it will not. In fact, who would have guessed it had gone up to 1596 or thereabout today. Wow, extraordinary, who would have had guessed it? I guess nobody. But it did!

I was long on Dec at the same time I covered my short of Auguest. Today, I'm short on August as of now. Need a good scissor now!

I have no qualms in saying that god will surpass 1600. Even as high as the 1620/30 area. But I'm still bearish in the short to mid term and very much bullish in the long term.

Anyone that said that gold would not hit 1600 does not sound very knowledgeable to me.

Edited July 13, 2012 by Jayman

[yoshiwara]

What made gold go up today as of now? There are always reasons given by people when it goes up or when it goes down. Hey, people who write make their livings from writing. Take it with a grain of salt please!

That depends on the quality and background of the analysis.

[Naam]

Somchai or kkawczynski might now matter to you; but these are the people I rent half my rooms to for biz; so its worth my time thinking about. 20% a year for staples limits my ability to raise rents etc while my own operating costs (ie utilities) are still rising.

where do you see an increase of 20% a year for staple food?

[mccw]

Somchai or kkawczynski might now matter to you; but these are the people I rent half my rooms to for biz; so its worth my time thinking about. 20% a year for staples limits my ability to raise rents etc while my own operating costs (ie utilities) are still rising.

where do you see an increase of 20% a year for staple food?

Around 10-20% now last couple of years in UK and Thailand for many basics.

In a stagflation scenario for west and slowing to mild growth in the middle income economies I see continuing inflation as envevitable for many reasons; but especially accelerating as the population grows and wealth rises (or credit availability at least).

Big potential variables for the future in EU:

-One i've not heard talked about is if euro break up then no CAP; Effects could be dramatic.

-Increasing transport costs.

-The limit of producers ability to be squeezed any further on price by the big supermarkets in quest to maintain margins and competitiveness.

-worsening severity and frequency of droughts and floods in EU and around the world.

-currency devaluation.

Middle east and North Africa has been and will be serious inflation and related unrest.

[mccw]

Somchai or kkawczynski might now matter to you; but these are the people I rent half my rooms to for biz; so its worth my time thinking about. 20% a year for staples limits my ability to raise rents etc while my own operating costs (ie utilities) are still rising.

where do you see an increase of 20% a year for staple food?

Around 10-20% now last couple of years in UK and Thailand for many basics.

In a stagflation scenario for west and slowing to mild growth in the middle income economies I see continuing inflation as envevitable for many reasons; but especially accelerating as the population grows and wealth rises (or credit availability at least).

Big potential variables for the future in EU:

-One i've not heard talked about is if euro break up then no CAP; Effects could be dramatic.

-Increasing transport costs.

-The limit of producers ability to be squeezed any further on price by the big supermarkets in quest to maintain margins and competitiveness.

-worsening severity and frequency of droughts and floods in EU and around the world.

-currency devaluation.

Middle east and North Africa has been and will be serious inflation and related unrest.

[falang07]

If it turns out too violent, a gun will be much more worth than gold anyway

[mccw]

Somchai or kkawczynski might now matter to you; but these are the people I rent half my rooms to for biz; so its worth my time thinking about. 20% a year for staples limits my ability to raise rents etc while my own operating costs (ie utilities) are still rising.

where do you see an increase of 20% a year for staple food?

Around 10-20% now last couple of years in UK and Thailand for many basics.

In a stagflation scenario for west and slowing to mild growth in the middle income economies I see continuing inflation as envevitable for many reasons; but especially accelerating as the population grows and wealth rises (or credit availability at least).

Big potential variables for the future in EU:

-One i've not heard talked about is if euro break up then no CAP; Effects could be dramatic.

-Increasing transport costs.

-The limit of producers ability to be squeezed any further on price by the big supermarkets in quest to maintain margins and competitiveness.

-worsening severity and frequency of droughts and floods in EU and around the world.

-currency devaluation.

Middle east and North Africa has been and will be serious inflation and related unrest.

[mccw]

Triple post apologies ; I blame the app tap tap

---/----

plenty food and water supply is all good security policy.

(I am about to start process of getting fire arms license here in UK also; just incase worse happens. But I ain't about to be shooting anyone if I can help it (in UK people go to jail for protecting their own house and family

[flying]

If it turns out too violent, a gun will be much more worth than gold anyway

If that is true I am rich

[flying]

FDIC to Classify Gold as a 0% Risk-Weighted Asset?

On June 18 the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. proposed rule changes to categorize gold as a Zero Percent Risk-Weighted, Tier 1 Asset.

A. Zero Percent Risk-Weighted Items

The following exposures would receive a zero percent risk weight under the proposal:

• Cash;
  
• Gold bullion;
  
• Direct and unconditional claims on the U.S. government, its central bank, or a U.S. government agency;
  
• Exposures unconditionally guaranteed by the U.S. government, its central bank, or a U.S. government agency;
  
• Claims on certain supranational entities (such as the International Monetary Fund) and certain multilateral development banking organizations
  
• Claims on and exposures unconditionally guaranteed by sovereign entities that meet certain criteria (as discussed below).
  

• 
  

Edited July 15, 2012 by flying

[flying]

If it turns out too violent, a gun will be much more worth than gold anyway

If that is true I am rich

That my previous reply not be taken as more than...

I would like to point out that many people have this all or nothing

line of thinking......

Personally I do not envision any repairs nor collapse that goes from 0-100 in a blink.

So when folks say things like if TSHTF guns are better or canned beans etc

I do not think they are being realistic at all.

Any of the major parties/countries involved should instead be viewed as very large ships

They take time to maneuver...they take time to turn & even if damaged beyond repair they take time to sink.

They are not jet ski's that turn on a dime nor do they sink instantly.

It is the time they take to turn or the time they take to sink that should also be kept

in mind. It is that window of time that could be looked at objectively

That time frame could be a year or a decade. No need to assume extremes

Edited July 15, 2012 by flying

[binjalin]

Triple post apologies ; I blame the app tap tap

---/----

plenty food and water supply is all good security policy.

(I am about to start process of getting fire arms license here in UK also; just incase worse happens. But I ain't about to be shooting anyone if I can help it (in UK people go to jail for protecting their own house and family

think about doing what I have done - get a good BB gun - won't kill but it sure as hell stings like s**t and looks very real

[falang07]

It would be very stupid to shoot at someone with a BB gun since in case he fires back with a real gun, he can legally kill you without any problems in the court.

[waza]

The problem isnt just the inflation of the cost of living but the deflation of income as interest rates, dividends decrease, wage and salaries stagnate or decrease and under/ unemployment increase. Not to mention the decrease in government subsidies for social welfare.

Gold may be a way to hedge your losses but you need to have a nest egg to start with.

Edited July 15, 2012 by waza

[yoshiwara]

plenty food and water supply is all good security policy.

(I am about to start process of getting fire arms license here in UK also; just incase worse happens. But I ain't about to be shooting anyone if I can help it (in UK people go to jail for protecting their own house and family

Don't forget that tins of spam have a long shelf-life and study the Unabomber Guide to Housekeeping in Extreme Circumstances

Edited July 15, 2012 by yoshiwara

[churchill]

plenty food and water supply is all good security policy.

(I am about to start process of getting fire arms license here in UK also; just incase worse happens. But I ain't about to be shooting anyone if I can help it (in UK people go to jail for protecting their own house and family

Don't forget that tins of spam have a long shelf-life and study the Unabomber Guide to Housekeeping in Extreme Circumstances

Ha Ha ..tonights comedienne ..

[mccw]

If it turns out too violent, a gun will be much more worth than gold anyway

If that is true I am rich

That my previous reply not be taken as more than...

I would like to point out that many people have this all or nothing

line of thinking......

Personally I do not envision any repairs nor collapse that goes from 0-100 in a blink.

So when folks say things like if TSHTF guns are better or canned beans etc

I do not think they are being realistic at all.

Any of the major parties/countries involved should instead be viewed as very large ships

They take time to maneuver...they take time to turn & even if damaged beyond repair they take time to sink.

They are not jet ski's that turn on a dime nor do they sink instantly.

It is the time they take to turn or the time they take to sink that should also be kept

in mind. It is that window of time that could be looked at objectively

That time frame could be a year or a decade. No need to assume extremes

Couple of extremely quick worse case possibilities are- global banking paralysis / meltdown from either economic triggered domino effect or massive solar flare type event.

But a slow stagflation is most likely course. Still best to be prepared just in case is my opinion.

Global supply chains breaking down, no food in the super markets, anarchy while gov gets emergency measures in place and such is not beyond the realms of reason.

Personally I roughly give within next 5years:

- extreme SHTF events a 10% chance

- steady stagflation (the new normal we're in now) 60% chance

- something more serious but not a total meltdown 30% chance

- boom times returning 0% chance

Whats all your factorings of chances?

[flying]

Whats all your factorings of chances?

Personally I did not mean to imply with my post that preparing for various scenarios is a bad thing.

I have done that to the best of my ability for the past 4 years

I have often said that this time due to QE whatever was a gift.

Many years ago I watched Chris Martenson's Crash Course

It made a lot of sense to me & seemed sensible. I took much of it to heart.

Exactly how things will go I have no idea & for all their diploma's I do not think

any of the so called great economist know either. To that end I do not think

some planning is a bad thing. If you plan & things somehow turn around

what do you lose?

If you do not & things get a lot worse how will you feel knowing you had time to plan

& did nothing?

Everyone is different as is their situation. Each will have to plan for their own situation.

[mccw]

Around the end of 5 years if revaluing has properly taken place and debt balanced out then maybe things can develop to start on a new upwards trend- possibly on the back of Asian demand by way of a gold backed yuan and money supply expansion and/or new credit expansion cycle.

Could be closer to 10years depending how slow they like to go.

[mccw]

Whats all your factorings of chances?

Personally I did not mean to imply with my post that preparing for various scenarios is a bad thing.

I have done that to the best of my ability for the past 4 years

I have often said that this time due to QE whatever was a gift.

Many years ago I watched Chris Martenson's Crash Course

To that end I do not think

some planning is a bad thing. If you plan & things somehow turn around

what do you lose?

If you do not & things get a lot worse how will you feel knowing you had time to plan

& did nothing?

Everyone is different as is their situation. Each will have to plan for their own situation.

Agree completely.

(Just the other day I was stocking up on candles. About 100 worth, a trolley full, and everyone was looking like "what's he know we don't" or looking at me like I was daft (while they carry a couple of shirt at more value). But I'm thinking if the lights go out for whatever reason this winter they'll be the ones feeling daft sat there in the dark. A few simple steps neednt break the bank.

[mccw]

It would be very stupid to shoot at someone with a BB gun since in case he fires back with a real gun, he can legally kill you without any problems in the court.

Except to explain why they have a gun. It's 5years minimum sentence for carry a fire arm without a licence; let alone shooting some one, especially if they have gone in to some else home with it. Not exactly no problem. Maybe if they came in to your home with a bb and then u shot them it might get you off the hook but certainly not the other way around.

I wouldn't bother with an air pistol; bit of a sting isn't exactly going to stop a ravenous lunatic. Cross bow is a deadly and easily purchased alternative

[yoshiwara]

Whats all your factorings of chances?

Personally I did not mean to imply with my post that preparing for various scenarios is a bad thing.

I have done that to the best of my ability for the past 4 years

I have often said that this time due to QE whatever was a gift.

Many years ago I watched Chris Martenson's Crash Course

To that end I do not think

some planning is a bad thing. If you plan & things somehow turn around

what do you lose?

If you do not & things get a lot worse how will you feel knowing you had time to plan

& did nothing?

Everyone is different as is their situation. Each will have to plan for their own situation.

Agree completely.

(Just the other day I was stocking up on candles. About 100 worth, a trolley full, and everyone was looking like "what's he know we don't" or looking at me like I was daft (while they carry a couple of shirt at more value). But I'm thinking if the lights go out for whatever reason this winter they'll be the ones feeling daft sat there in the dark. A few simple steps neednt break the bank.

Well fancy that!

[khaan]

We are discovering more and more is that the world is comprehensively broke in every sphere, and in every dimension and in every way. The governments in every level are all broke, the households are going broke, the banks are insolvent, the money really is not there.

in his new book Too Much Magic, Jim attacks the wishful thinking dominant today that with a little more growth, a little more energy, a little more technology -- a little more magic -- we'll somehow sail past our current tribulations without having to change our behavior.

sums up people like yoshiwara

http://www.peakprosp...-late-solutions

Edited July 16, 2012 by khaan

[Naam]

MineWeb: Indian central bank wants people to exchange metal for paper

The Reserve Bank of India is looking to mobilise the country's idle gold deposits. The apex bank is mulling ways other than direct curbs on imports of gold to reduce the current account deficit.

With gold imports contributing substantially to India's current account deficit, a bank instituted panel is looking into the aspects of devising some alternative routes.

that panel can mull 25 hours a day (by skipping lunch break) but will not find one twelfth of a dozen stupid Indians who is willing to convert his/her cherished physical gold holdings into paper.

[Naam]

We are discovering more and more is that the world is comprehensively broke in every sphere, and in every dimension and in every way. The governments in every level are all broke, the households are going broke, the banks are insolvent, the money really is not there.

not to forget that the sky will be falling....

any time from now.

[yoshiwara]

We are discovering more and more is that the world is comprehensively broke in every sphere, and in every dimension and in every way. The governments in every level are all broke, the households are going broke, the banks are insolvent, the money really is not there.

in his new book Too Much Magic, Jim attacks the wishful thinking dominant today that with a little more growth, a little more energy, a little more technology -- a little more magic -- we'll somehow sail past our current tribulations without having to change our behavior.

sums up people like yoshiwara

http://www.peakprosp...-late-solutions

This presumably will be the James Kunstler who has a BA in Theater. Another crank.

[flying]

Back to where is gold going?

My guess & that is all it is.............

Range bound for the next three months.

1500-1700 for the year max

Stuck in a presidential election cycle where the markets

are kept in bound IMHO until November.

Looking at the 60 day charts day traders could have fun with such a range bound commodity

I use to love this type of chart in the NASDAQ back in 99-2000 techs

[Jayman]

Interesting...

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/analysis-and-features/special-report-after-libor-where-will-the-next-scandal-be-7946899.html

Gold fixing

Twice a day the price of the precious metal is set – or (and it's a rather unfortunate term) fixed – by five banks: Bank of Nova Scotia, Deutsche Bank, HSBC, Société Gé*érale and (wait for it) Barclays.

The leader of the fix begins by proposing a price and the five then simulate trading, by looking at their own and client's buy and sell orders, around it until the price is set.

All transactions in gold in London are based on this price. It's an arcane process to say the least and until 2004 used to be done in conditions of high secrecy at the offices of NM Rothschild in St Swithin's Lane. The price was only set when all five members lowered little Union Jack flags.

Since Rothschild sold its interest in the market (to Barclays) a teleconference has been set up and members simply call out "flag" to indicate a change in position or "flag down" when they are ready to complete. Seriously.

The market itself is not regulated as such. It's done under the auspices of the London Bullion Market Association and follows a code of conduct.

There are also silver and platinum fixes.

[mccw]

Any thoughts on the silver - gold price ratio and/ or platinum to gold ratio?

Cheers