Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[sonicdragon]

Dragon, take a wild guess which (out of three) is our really beloved bank but J.B. has its limitations too. trading in slightly exotic/illiquid assets is too sluggish for my liking and any indicative prices a trader reads from a Bloomie or Reuters screen are of no interest to me. in this respect nobody beats UBS in obtaining tradeable prices/volumes within minutes. with CS we are still because of a long relationship, private connections and some special services which other banks do not offer.

Yes, they've all got their limitations, stemming from the fact that they are all basically crooks in a crooked industry. You can't beat JB for having access to little-known CHF private placements but for for trading/brokerage, I do a lot business with GS of whom I've also been an employee so I find them very easy to deal with. Probably the biggest crooks of all though !

These days I'm doing less and less in the US, even from the short side. I wish there were a SGD denominated short US equities ETF out there - it would save a lot of hassles with F/X options.

I've been sitting on a Diapason agricultural commodities fund for three years now. That, plus some precious metals funds, physical gold and two alternative energy funds form the core of my long terms investments. I still work, so luckily I don't need current income from investments.

I'm probably moving back to the UK later this year, as my kids will start primary school there next year, so dealing with that actually takes up most of my time now

[cloudhopper]

A quote from the Richard Russell of Dow Theory (I went to school with his son so you must believe) -

Investors sometimes get caught up in the day to day and week to week movements in gold and silver. Don’t waste your time or energy on that, just accumulate. Standing in front of us is the greatest transfer of wealth in history. When the dust settles, those holding the gold will make the rules.

[lannarebirth]

Like H&S patterns the C&H is largely a function of huge increases in transactional volume when resistance falls. That remains to be see. As for your second chart, well, I note there is still time to use the edit function.

heheh yeah you know me & I am not a techy/cyclist but I like to look.

Those charts are both from Jesse's & I did have to laugh when i saw the "you bought here"

PS: if that projection were proving to be true I would sell towards the end of 2013

Silver's projection also looking strong

Focus on Silver

http://www.gotgoldre...on-silver-.html

So why don't they just change the price to the new projection?

[churchill]

Like H&S patterns the C&H is largely a function of huge increases in transactional volume when resistance falls. That remains to be see. As for your second chart, well, I note there is still time to use the edit function.

heheh yeah you know me & I am not a techy/cyclist but I like to look.

Those charts are both from Jesse's & I did have to laugh when i saw the "you bought here"

PS: if that projection were proving to be true I would sell towards the end of 2013

Silver's projection also looking strong

Focus on Silver

http://www.gotgoldre...on-silver-.html

So why don't they just change the price to the new projection?

That would be nice I'll send an e-mail to JPM and HSBC to see what can be arranged !

Gold Rallying to $1,500 as Soros’s Bubble Inflates

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-08-31/gold-rallying-to-1-500-as-soros-s-bubble-inflates.html

[flying]

Both Gold & Silver doing well today

Gold +$12.80

Silver +$0.33

Although it is only mid day

[Naam]

Standing in front of us is the greatest transfer of wealth in history. When the dust settles, those holding the gold will make the rules.

ohmygosh! does that mean i will be even more hen-pecked?

[sonicdragon]

Standing in front of us is the greatest transfer of wealth in history. When the dust settles, those holding the gold will make the rules.

ohmygosh! does that mean i will be even more hen-pecked?

That depends on how long you will inhabit the planet for ! The problem with these prognostications, is that it *could* happen next year - or maybe next century. My guess is somewhere in the 5-15 year range.

The PTB have a knack of cobbling things together to maintain the status quo. Unfortunately it only makes the problem worse in the future.

[churchill]

China c.bank researcher warns of gold price risks -paper

http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2010-09/17840600-china-c-bank-researcher-warns-of-gold-price-risks-paper-020.htm

[churchill]

Couple of interesting posts from this site

Bancor: The Name Of The Global Currency That A Shocking IMF Report Is Proposing

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/bancor-the-name-of-the-global-currency-a-shocking-imf-report-urges-the-world-to-adopt

and

The Death Of Cash? All Over The World Governments Are Banning Large Cash Transactions

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/the-death-of-cash-all-over-the-world-governments-are-banning-large-cash-transactions

[churchill]

Gold Climbs Above $1,250 on Economic Concerns

http://www.cnbc.com/id/38944322?__source=RSS*tag*&par=RSS

[churchill]

Hints Of Change In The World Monetary System

seems back to front !? 'Presumably, the Fed and the European Central Bank are uncomfortable committing to accept certain currencies of potentially dubious value. Ironically, however, the interest in multilateral solutions is greatly dictated by other countries' concerns about the dollar. '

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703467004575464024086939844.html?mo

d=dist_smartbrief

Edited September 1, 2010 by churchill

[flying]

Couple of interesting posts from this site

Bancor: The Name Of The Global Currency That A Shocking IMF Report Is Proposing

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/bancor-the-name-of-the-global-currency-a-shocking-imf-report-urges-the-world-to-adopt

and

The Death Of Cash? All Over The World Governments Are Banning Large Cash Transactions

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/the-death-of-cash-all-over-the-world-governments-are-banning-large-cash-transactions

Thanks I had seen the death of cash article but not the other. The reality of the death of cash ( in the USA )we have seen coming for awhile now.

It seems a likely road for TPTB to have an accounting of every penny. I imagine we would not even have to file tax returns at that point as they would see/control it all & take what they deem theirs.

All pay will be by direct deposit...all shopping done by credit or debit cards... All bill paying done the same way....etc

Even now leaving the US with cash has gotten so much more touchy. Same goes for large transactions. Not just for the buyer but the receiver of the funds. They are now made to report or risk jail time themselves. This country has become a shell of its former self. In the name of the war on terror we the citizens are stripped daily of rights & privacy.

As to the other article dealing with a global currency...Many times I have wondered if this was not the ultimate goal of those that run the show.They basically do it now anyway through the world reserve currency but as that collapses they will need to switch horses.

Then again while in conspiracy mode I guess we could also wonder if that collapse was not engineered for that purpose.

[Naam]

Thanks I had seen the death of cash article but not the other. The reality of the death of cash ( in the USA )we have seen coming for awhile now.

one of the reasons is that people don't have cash

[flying]

Thanks I had seen the death of cash article but not the other. The reality of the death of cash ( in the USA )we have seen coming for awhile now.

one of the reasons is that people don't have cash

:lol: True too

[churchill]

Could Gold/Silver stocks get the best of both worlds ?

Rising PM's and Stocks !

Here's the latest word from Jim Rogers. As usual Jim is as bearish as ever and long commodities.....

However, that is not to say Rogers is loading up on the short side.

In fact, Jim says:

"They're printing so much money that I would not be short. I have no shorts. In most of my life, I've always had a short of 2, or 3, or 16... because I'm afraid they're printing so much money that stocks will go to 20,000 or 30,000. Of course it will be in worthless money, but it could happen,"

http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Federal-Reserve-printing-too-much-money-Jim-Rogers-31431-3-1.html

[churchill]

Are Junior Gold and Silver miners undervalued ?

Some think so / Time to invest in GDXJ and SIL ?

Goldcorp to buy Andean Resources for $3.4 billion

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/goldcorp-to-buy-andean-resources-for-34-billion-2010-09-03

[churchill]

Investors  turn to linkers and gold to hedge uncertainty

'In recent weeks, many fund managers have responded by rushing into two asset classes that are likely to perform well in either scenario: index-linked government bonds and gold.'

'These two asset classes are seen as attractive in either a deflationary or inflationary climate, making them popular with fund managers who have little idea how the global economy will unfold.

Deflation may be considered a more near-term problem. But inflation concerns rise over the medium to long term because of the dangers of central bankers over-egging their response to the threat of falling prices.

Jim Leaviss, head of retail fixed interest at M&G Investments, says: “There are few assets that give you protection against inflation and deflation.”'

'John Wraith, fixed income strategist at BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, says: “As Ben Bernanke has said, the outlook is very uncertain. In fact, there is more uncertainty about the global outlook than at any time I can remember. Such a climate favours anything that will best preserve capital, such as highly rated conventional or index-linked government bonds and gold.”'

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c3f9fb60-b793-11df-8ef6-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=rss

[churchill]

Gold dinars gain currency in Malaysia

'Kelantan Golden Trade chief executive officer Umar Ibrahim Vadillo said the first batch of gold and silver coins worth two million ringgit ($625,000) had been sold out in less than a month.

"There is enormous response in Malaysia. Their reaction is unbelievable," he told reporters.

"In Kelantan, businesses including garage owners and taxi drivers are using the gold and silver coins."

Civil servants in the state are paid up to 25 per cent of their salary in dinars and dirhams if they wish.

Umar said three more states controlled by the opposition - Selangor, Kedah and Penang - had indicated interest in minting similar coins.

"By the end of the year, we anticipate sales of the dinars and dirhams to hit 60m to 70m ringgit," he said.

According to Islamic law, the dinar coin is 4.25 grams of gold, while the dirham is 3grams of pure silver.

A gold coin is equivalent to about 582 ringgit ($183), while the silver coin is worth around 13 ringgit but their values fluctuate according to market prices.

The coins were intended to be used as an alternative to the ringgit and sen but are not legal tender.

"It is not legal tender. The gold dinar is a commodity. The use of it is on a voluntary basis," Mr Vadillo said.

"The government of Kelantan has not received any petition from the government of Malaysia (against the usage).

"The people in Kelantan have spoken loud and clear that they like the gold and silver coins."

Former premier Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, whose administration promoted a moderate form of Islam that emphasised economic and scientific development, shot down the proposal to use traditional Islamic currencies.

But his predecessor Mahathir Mohamad was an advocate of the dinar system and urged Muslim countries to use it as a trade instrument.'

http://www.gulf-daily-news.com/NewsDetails.aspx?storyid=286171

[12DrinkMore]

Gold dinars gain currency in Malaysia

An incredibly overstated headline.

I doubt whether that is a harbinger of things to come. So far just 2,000,000 Ringgits worth have been sold. That is around 20,000,000 Baht. Peanuts, just a novelty for the local people to own. I haven't checked out what the premium is against the gold price, but I suspect it is quite high.

[Naam]

According to Islamic law, the dinar coin is 4.25 grams of gold, while the dirham is 3grams of pure silver.

= only one of the zillion bullshite claims in the "report" that Churchill quoted.

[Naam]

if only 10% of the quotes/recommendations and forecasts Churchill posted in this thread were true the gold price would have crossed 20k dollars an ounce.

[churchill]

if only 10% of the quotes/recommendations and forecasts Churchill posted in this thread were true the gold price would have crossed 20k dollars an ounce.

Thanks Naam ! I think one of the 1st gold threads was whether Google or Gold would reach $500 1st /

If most of your quotes and views had been listened to since then one would expect gold still to be in the low hundreds

Is gold more likely in today's climate to reach 10K or crash to $200/$300 ?

[Naam]

Churchill,

you started this thread on oct 17, 2008 in the middle of the "crisis" when Gold traded at 780 dollars an ounce. now, nearly two years later Gold is up 60% whereas a "zillion" fiat assets (i am talking mainly about bonds in which i invest) doubled, tripled and quadrupled (and more) in value plus raking in fancy fiat coupon yields during the same period. and no matter what goldbugs think about fiat and paper, the fact remains that i can cross my property line and use a part of my fiat profit to buy Gold or any other precious metal but keep the lion share of my fiat which works 24 hours, 7 seven days a week to generate more fiat which i (or rather my wife) can use to buy Gold.

i am not a prophet and therefore not able to answer questions which concern the future but rather deal with tangible facts (like those i mentioned above) for which hard evidence can be submitted.

by the way, i remember march 2008 when Bear Sterns went belly-up and the gold price hit 1,030 dollars. at that time there must have been bugs too who bought Gold, looking now at 8.5% yield per annum and... keep on dreaming. needless to say that this does not apply to the resident goldbugs because they all were clever enough to buy their Gold 10-12 years ago when it traded at $250 an ounce.

[Naam]

A gold coin is equivalent to about 582 ringgit ($183), while the silver coin is worth around 13 ringgit but their values fluctuate according to market prices.

their values fluctuate? the market decides the fiat value of gold and silver? strange!

[churchill]

Naam - You are a very clever man

"you started this thread on oct 17, 2008 in the middle of the "crisis" when Gold traded at 780 dollars an ounce. now, nearly two years later Gold is up 60% whereas a "zillion" fiat assets (i am talking mainly about bonds in which i invest) doubled, tripled and quadrupled (and more) in value plus raking in fancy fiat coupon yields during the same period. and no matter what goldbugs think about fiat and paper, the fact remains that i can cross my property line and use a part of my fiat profit to buy Gold or any other precious metal but keep the lion share of my fiat which works 24 hours, 7 seven days a week to generate more fiat which i (or rather my wife) can use to buy Gold."

Perhaps you could educate those of us who are not such experts on where and how to buy these bonds that double , triple and more ? Why not start a thread ?

From you favorite site !

The Paulson Portfolio

"Yet, in discussing the gold research expertise that backs up the fund, we read this most curious disclosure:

Lastly, and perhaps most important, from a monetary policy perspective in developing an ability to forecast the timing and future price of gold we believe we have an unparalleled team. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has been extremely helpful to us in undestanding the relationship between the monetary base, the money supply, inflation and gold prices.

This is probably the single most important take home message in this entire post. Basically, Paulson confirms implicitly that the Fed itself (via the man who got us to this woeful economic state), is advocating the purchase of gold, as he is confident that the double whammy of the monetary base and supply will lead to a surge in gold. Whether this means inflation or hyperinflation, and the final playout of the "Gold to $36,000 scenario" is uncertain. But when the world's biggest hedge fund, and the world's greatest economic disaster have sat down, and decided that gold is a buy here, we will certainly not step in their way. Basically the Paulson-Greenspan JV have confirmed what everyone tacitly knows: the Fed has no option but to reflate. And it will stop at nothing, even if it means the forced conversion of gold from its legacy commodity status, to a full-accepted currency. Gold bears beware."

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/exclusive-paulson-portfolio-post-mortem-which-we-learn-maestro-himself-advising-jp-future-go

Edited September 6, 2010 by churchill

[Naam]

Perhaps you could educate those of us who are not such experts on where and how to buy these bonds that double , triple and more ? Why not start a thread ?

it is useless to start a thread which deals with water under the bridge or snow that thawed last spring. besides, bonds which multiplied in value have been discussed last year in the thread "financial crisis". but the only interested party i remember was TV-member Abrak. nearly everybody else was most of the time busy lamenting, describing the apocalypse which was around the corner to hit all of us and looking out for bakeries which were for sale for a single gold coin. actually we face the same situation now, except that the good times doubling, tripling and multiplying your bets are over till we face the next crisis which may occur next week or in twenty years. now we are back to moderate 5-15% yields p.a. depending how much risk one is willing to take.

[churchill]

Goldman still expects a further $1 trillion of QE

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/09/07/335821/goldman-still-expects-a-further-1-trillion-of-qe/

[churchill]

Thai gold futures trade dips 10% on strong currency

BANGKOK (Commodity Online) : Strong Thailand currency, the baht pressurised gold prices in the southeast Asian nation and trimmed its gold futures trade by 10 percent.

According to Thailand’s leading gold brokerage firm, YLG Bullion & Futures, many investors are stuck and unable to sell their futures for the last three months.

Those entering the market now should invest only when physical gold prices are in the range of Bt18,000-Bt18,600 per baht weight, it said.

One baht is equal to 15.244 grams, or about half a troy ounce.

Although global gold prices have escalated, domestic prices in Thailand rose at a milder pace. Investors have switched from daily transactions to striking orders on alternate days, which reduced volume.

The baht gained more than 3 per cent against the dollar in August, thanks to higher interest rates, which drew new capital inflows.

Gold-futures investors will experience foreign-exchange risks, Because of the strong baht, the mini gold futures launched in August could not boost trading.

In the first eight months of this year, YLG executed 8,420 gold-futures contracts, mostly for retailers, gold shops and high-net-worth individuals, with an investment portfolio of Bt30 million.

continued .. http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Thai-gold-futures-trade-dips-10-on-strong-currency-31530-3-1.html

[teletiger]

Up, up, up, she goes. ($1260) Where she stops, nobody knows.

Regards.

[churchill]

Matterhorn Asset Management Sets Three Gold Price Targets: $6,000 – $7,000 – $10,000

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/matterhorn-asset-management-sets-three-gold-price-targets-6000-%E2%80%93-7000-%E2%80%93-10000