Stockmarket Trading, Forex, Commodities.

[DummDays]

The main Question will be:

will the Majority of the Fundsmanagers, Hedgefonds and institutional Investors jump into the Markets now, not to lose the momentum Uptrend?

Here is the Chart of AUD_USD - maybe usefull ass a pre-indikator

[DummDays]

maybe a look at the put-call ratios can help to determine, if this trend is about to contunue

http://www.market-harmonics.com/free-charts/sentiment/putcall.htm

[mazd2]

This is a bet that we'll be 'risk-off' by the end of the week.

Sell EUR/[email protected]

Take [email protected]

stop [email protected]

trade expires on 10/29

There's some kind of little summit concluding on Wednesday and I don't think the eu can overcome its differences to the satisfaction of the market.

[ClimbingMel]

I have been thinking of moving to Thailand. I am a day trader and wondering if you can give me some insight as to what will be needed to start trading from Thailand?

[Paulo1]

I have been thinking of moving to Thailand. I am a day trader and wondering if you can give me some insight as to what will be needed to start trading from Thailand?

Its lijke trading anywhere. You need a fast reliable internet connection.

[Paulo1]

Who wants to trade 10 to 30 pips per day consistantly in FX?

As always I follow you with relish and as FX is an area I've failed in (overall) in the past please count me in.

Hi Chivas,

Sorry for the late reply. I have sent you a PM on the short term chart settings, 5 min, 15 min.

[4evermaat]

I have been thinking of moving to Thailand. I am a day trader and wondering if you can give me some insight as to what will be needed to start trading from Thailand?

besides dual internet connections (one should be wireless, preferably 3g), having backup laptop or computer is desirable, dual core or higher if possible. Some get by with edge connections, but i can only imagine position traders doing this consistently. I did have a friend that was daytrading on Edge, and he had quite a bit of charts open in metatrader. when i tossed him my CAT modem before leaving, he never looked back. If you autotrade, windows VPS solution is best. I would not leave anything up to chance (power failure, slow or downed internet, etc)

[tdm]

Who wants to trade 10 to 30 pips per day consistantly in FX?

As always I follow you with relish and as FX is an area I've failed in (overall) in the past please count me in.

Hi Chivas,

Sorry for the late reply. I have sent you a PM on the short term chart settings, 5 min, 15 min.

Hi Paulo,

having read through your posts it's obvious you are being generous with your knowledge. I have been a student of trading for the last couple of years, all instruments, and would also appreciate an insight into your chart settings,

many thanks,

Tony

[Paulo1]

Who wants to trade 10 to 30 pips per day consistantly in FX?

As always I follow you with relish and as FX is an area I've failed in (overall) in the past please count me in.

Hi Chivas,

Sorry for the late reply. I have sent you a PM on the short term chart settings, 5 min, 15 min.

Hi Paulo,

having read through your posts it's obvious you are being generous with your knowledge. I have been a student of trading for the last couple of years, all instruments, and would also appreciate an insight into your chart settings,

many thanks,

Tony

Will send you a PM.

Sell AUD on rallies. current price 1.0200 bid,, support 1.0155, resistance 1.0234.

Edited December 6, 2011 by Paulo1

[Paulo1]

Time to sell Yen crosses. Prepare for intervention .

Sells EY, GY, UY, AY, CADYEN , They will all act much the same, so if you start building small positions to get your best average price with a target of arount 200 to 250 pips there should be some good money to be made.

Good Luck.

Edited January 30, 2012 by Paulo1

[churchill]

Hi Paulo

A question - I came across these comments on a blog just now and am interested as to how this works ..see

'They are working gold down with an algo and trying to hit stops..They haven't hit a big batch yet. This will continue at least until that point.'

'where is the big batch?'

'No idea.

It is a matter of cost vs gain.

There is a cost to walk gold down as they sell into it. As long as they hit as many or more stops compared to what they sell (their cost) to get lower, they can continue selling.'

I posted a question on the Financial thread a long time ago about HFT which I think Lanna answered but this seems different .

How much money does it take to move markets ( in smallish markets like silver for instance )? who has the money ? the banks , governments, but then it is customers or tax payers money ? ? If one has enough money surely it is just about a one way bet ?

If they are trying to get lower prices in a bull market is it because they need to cover short positions ? see ..

P.A.G.E. And What It Means For The Gold Price And Currencies

http://www.forexlive...and-currencies/

Edited January 30, 2012 by churchill

[Paulo1]

Hi Paulo

A question - I came across these comments on a blog just now and am interested as to how this works ..see

'They are working gold down with an algo and trying to hit stops..They haven't hit a big batch yet. This will continue at least until that point.'

'where is the big batch?'

'No idea.

It is a matter of cost vs gain.

There is a cost to walk gold down as they sell into it. As long as they hit as many or more stops compared to what they sell (their cost) to get lower, they can continue selling.'

I posted a question on the Financial thread a long time ago about HFT which I think Lanna answered but this seems different .

How much money does it take to move markets ( in smallish markets like silver for instance )? who has the money ? the banks , governments, but then it is customers or tax payers money ? ? If one has enough money surely it is just about a one way bet ?

If they are trying to get lower prices in a bull market is it because they need to cover short positions ? see ..

P.A.G.E. And What It Means For The Gold Price And Currencies

http://www.forexlive...and-currencies/

Hi Churchill,

I know about these algos. Morgan Stanly have an extremely aggressive one running on silver. Goldman have them running on everything from currency to pork bellies.

I don't think there is one big batch of stops in a particular zone. However its not hard to figure it out and most will be hannging under round numbers.

Will comment more on this later. I have just had trade confirmation.

BUY USDJPY 76.30 Stop 76.03 Target 76.89

[Paulo1]

Hi Paulo

A question - I came across these comments on a blog just now and am interested as to how this works ..see

'They are working gold down with an algo and trying to hit stops..They haven't hit a big batch yet. This will continue at least until that point.'

'where is the big batch?'

'No idea.

It is a matter of cost vs gain.

There is a cost to walk gold down as they sell into it. As long as they hit as many or more stops compared to what they sell (their cost) to get lower, they can continue selling.'

I posted a question on the Financial thread a long time ago about HFT which I think Lanna answered but this seems different .

How much money does it take to move markets ( in smallish markets like silver for instance )? who has the money ? the banks , governments, but then it is customers or tax payers money ? ? If one has enough money surely it is just about a one way bet ?

If they are trying to get lower prices in a bull market is it because they need to cover short positions ? see ..

P.A.G.E. And What It Means For The Gold Price And Currencies

http://www.forexlive...and-currencies/

Hi Churchill,

I know about these algos. Morgan Stanly have an extremely aggressive one running on silver. Goldman have them running on everything from currency to pork bellies.

I don't think there is one big batch of stops in a particular zone. However its not hard to figure it out and most will be hannging under round numbers.

Will comment more on this later. I have just had trade confirmation.

BUY USDJPY 76.30 Stop 76.03 Target 76.89

I wrote this a few days ago.

Yen Intervention Trade

USD/JPY

History

Intervention date 1. Thursday 04/Aug/2011.

Open 77.121 High 80.23 Low 76.993 Close 79.082 Total Pip Range 320,

(Pips can be a few off, pending on your broker)

Calendar Events: 4/8/2011 BOJ

Monetary Policy, Statement, Overnight Call Rate, BOJ Press Conference

Candle support 76.95 MA 200 SMA bearish High 80.22 was 35 pips from 200 SMA

63 trading days Intervention 1 to Intervention 2

Intervention Date 2. Monday31/0ct/2011.

Open 75.618 High 79.534 Low 75.571 Close 78.362 Total Pip Range 396.

Candle Support 75.67 MA 200 SMA bearish High 80.29 was 150 pips below SMA

We are now 67 trading days from Intervention 2 (31/10/2011)

Calendar Events: On the 25/1/2011 a significant shooting star formation on the daily chart with a high of 78.27 low 77.55 close 77.76. Resistance was a confluence of candle high weekly r3 pivot, 200 SMA, proceeding the close of the shooting star 25/1/2012 the USDYEN has had two negative days falling in to 76.65 (112 pips approx). If this support is broken expect a move to 76.70 and since intervention using swing highs the USDJPY has approached that zone (78.18) several times now.

Looking forward

Future News JPY Feb 2012

13/02/2012 Prelim GDP q/q

14/02/2012 Monetary Policy Statement, BOJ Press Conference

There is no doubt we are in intervention area. Timing cannot be told however the range to begin setting long positions are from 76.50 to the low of 75.56 (100 pip range) and using a stop 75.35 or 74.90. Your entry would determine your target however if history is to be repeated look for approximately 300 pips.

Buy Stops: Watch for some consolidation on 4hr, 1hr 15 min and 5 min to ascertain entry point.

The risk: BOJ does not intervene.

Major support is broken at 75.50 would suggest a move to 75.00. This in my opinion would be an optimum buy zone.

[muchogra]

Paulo1,

Thanks a lot for your postings which I have learned a lot.

You seem a doer!

Have you ever explored trading the SET50?

My experience trading the SET50 is never put a "stop". Why? Big fish eat small fish is why! Especially when you strip yourself naked to open up yourself to be raped!. Even betting on flutuations, one should not put a "stop"! What do you think?

[Paulo1]

USDJPY trade was stopped out.

Current price 76.17. I am expecting a push down to 75.60 zone once 76.15 low is taken out

Presently am short NZDUSD 8330

[Paulo1]

Paulo1,

Thanks a lot for your postings which I have learned a lot.

You seem a doer!

Have you ever explored trading the SET50?

My experience trading the SET50 is never put a "stop". Why? Big fish eat small fish is why! Especially when you strip yourself naked to open up yourself to be raped!. Even betting on flutuations, one should not put a "stop"! What do you think?

Hi Muchogra,

I have traded the set 50 although i have heard there is a nice opportunity from when the Dow closes to when to Set opens. I would ned to compare tis myself has i have not investigated it or traded the set.

USDJPY trade that was posted as stopped. that was the trade prior my invention notes. Intervention analysis still applies. I atually went long at 76.20 and took the profit at 76.55. I feel we will consolidate and test 76 area again and possibly push down to 75.50 . I don't see the Japanesse government letting it get below 75.00. In the unlikely case of 75.00 being broken on a daily candle/bar it could go to 72.00.?? As for trading from this zone risk , reward acceptable.

EURUSD possible daily topping pattern at resistance 1.3220 area, support 3072. daily zones. This could go either way at present . a break higher could go 3650,3678.3700 area .. The 1.3150 is key, looking at the daily we really have not gone no where fast. This recent rally could just be a relief rally if we don't make new highs .If the EU can not make a new daily high this week expect a return to the 1.2600 zone

AUDUSD closed at 1.0768 and about 300 pips to the all time high of 1.10796, The are its at now should present some sell opportunities, so i will be waiting for a andle reversal setup .

USDCHF This looks somewhat bearish on the weekly with daily resistance at 9244,and 9303 support 9108 . longer term support 8855. This looks like not a bad setup, so my trade will be.

Wait for support to be broken and then entry sells at old support which will be resistance looking for weakness and a candle /bar reversal signal.

I have not been posting much lately due to trading 5 minute setups and these are to quick to post.

Happy Trading

[Paulo1]

Paulo1,

Thanks a lot for your postings which I have learned a lot.

You seem a doer!

Have you ever explored trading the SET50?

My experience trading the SET50 is never put a "stop". Why? Big fish eat small fish is why! Especially when you strip yourself naked to open up yourself to be raped!. Even betting on flutuations, one should not put a "stop"! What do you think?

Hi Muchogra,

I have traded the set 50 although i have heard there is a nice opportunity from when the Dow closes to when to Set opens. I would ned to compare tis myself has i have not investigated it or traded the set.

USDJPY trade that was posted as stopped. that was the trade prior my invention notes. Intervention analysis still applies. I atually went long at 76.20 and took the profit at 76.55. I feel we will consolidate and test 76 area again and possibly push down to 75.50 . I don't see the Japanesse government letting it get below 75.00. In the unlikely case of 75.00 being broken on a daily candle/bar it could go to 72.00.?? As for trading from this zone risk , reward acceptable.

EURUSD possible daily topping pattern at resistance 1.3220 area, support 3072. daily zones. This could go either way at present . a break higher could go 3650,3678.3700 area .. The 1.3150 is key, looking at the daily we really have not gone no where fast. This recent rally could just be a relief rally if we don't make new highs .If the EU can not make a new daily high this week expect a return to the 1.2600 zone

AUDUSD closed at 1.0768 and about 300 pips to the all time high of 1.10796, The are its at now should present some sell opportunities, so i will be waiting for a andle reversal setup .

USDCHF This looks somewhat bearish on the weekly with daily resistance at 9244,and 9303 support 9108 . longer term support 8855. This looks like not a bad setup, so my trade will be.

Wait for support to be broken and then entry sells at old support which will be resistance looking for weakness and a candle /bar reversal signal.

I have not been posting much lately due to trading 5 minute setups and these are to quick to post.

Happy Trading

i am having a keyboard problem so excuse the spelling.

[Paulo1]

USDJPY> fridays high taken out , 76.89 to 77.00 is a huge zone, watch here for possible reversal. If this zone holds for a reversal i suspect it could take up to 30 1hr candle closes to mature.

AUDUSD is in confluence with the 200 sma and a trendline from 23/11/11 price 9662 joining 19/12/11 at 9860 zone.

Have huge news out tomorrow, official cash rate with expectation of a 25 basis point cut to take it down to 4.00%. if this happens we have a good setup at resistance and turns this sell into a higher probability trade.maybe 100 pip downside in the short term.

Edited February 6, 2012 by Paulo1

[Paulo1]

BUY USDCHF near .9185 stop 9145 target 9300

Stop Loss: Move stops to B/E once the open profit is equal to the original risk .

Exit Strategy: Target a move back towards the .9300 level. But exit should be taken at the time of the next trend change per the 60 min chart around mid day tomorrow. But this can change as we walk forward.

[Paulo1]

http://www.bloomberg...or-quarter.html

USDCHF has moved to 9209 stop to entry plus spread.

AUD interest rates remain

AUD

Cash Rate

4.25% 4.00%

4.25%

Looking to sell cable hgher 5813 zone

Have plenty of trades runing and some great opportunities, should be a good week this one.

Edited February 7, 2012 by Paulo1

[Paulo1]

Paulo1,

Thanks a lot for your postings which I have learned a lot.

You seem a doer!

Have you ever explored trading the SET50?

My experience trading the SET50 is never put a "stop". Why? Big fish eat small fish is why! Especially when you strip yourself naked to open up yourself to be raped!. Even betting on flutuations, one should not put a "stop"! What do you think?

Hi Muchogra,

I have traded the set 50 although i have heard there is a nice opportunity from when the Dow closes to when to Set opens. I would ned to compare tis myself has i have not investigated it or traded the set.

USDJPY trade that was posted as stopped. that was the trade prior my invention notes. Intervention analysis still applies. I atually went long at 76.20 and took the profit at 76.55. I feel we will consolidate and test 76 area again and possibly push down to 75.50 . I don't see the Japanesse government letting it get below 75.00. In the unlikely case of 75.00 being broken on a daily candle/bar it could go to 72.00.?? As for trading from this zone risk , reward acceptable.

EURUSD possible daily topping pattern at resistance 1.3220 area, support 3072. daily zones. This could go either way at present . a break higher could go 3650,3678.3700 area .. The 1.3150 is key, looking at the daily we really have not gone no where fast. This recent rally could just be a relief rally if we don't make new highs .If the EU can not make a new daily high this week expect a return to the 1.2600 zone

AUDUSD closed at 1.0768 and about 300 pips to the all time high of 1.10796, The are its at now should present some sell opportunities, so i will be waiting for a andle reversal setup .

.

USDCHF This looks somewhat bearish on the weekly with daily resistance at 9244,and 9303 support 9108 . longer term support 8855. This looks like not a bad setup, so my trade will be.

Wait for support to be broken and then entry sells at old support which will be resistance looking for weakness and a candle /bar reversal signal.

I have not been posting much lately due to trading 5 minute setups and these are to quick to post.

Happy Trading

USDCHF, after taking two longs yesterday , first earning 23 pips on 70%, 30% stopped at breakeven, 2nd trade long was entered at 9183 (30 pips), closde at 9212 , and the 3rd trade was a sell based on the weekly setup trades above, Sell limit was triggered at 9216 and closed at 9129 (84 pips), Total for USCHF daily pips =137.

Missed the AUD trade.

EU broke higher and is presently trading at 3260. Long entry on the EU was 3138, 3182 , current price 3258, so some nice pips there.

Cable buy was1.5798, current price 1.5892.

NZDUSD buy was 8348 current price 8356

No Trade on the USDJPY, am preparing position setups waiting for BOJ Intervention.

Looking to sell cable hgher 5813 zone. I did sell at 5812 and closed at breakeven

"Have plenty of trades runing and some great opportunities, should be a good week this one" and its been a great week so far..

Edited February 7, 2012 by Paulo1

[Chivas]

Paulo1,

Thanks a lot for your postings which I have learned a lot.

You seem a doer!

Have you ever explored trading the SET50?

My experience trading the SET50 is never put a "stop". Why? Big fish eat small fish is why! Especially when you strip yourself naked to open up yourself to be raped!. Even betting on flutuations, one should not put a "stop"! What do you think?

Hi Muchogra,

I have traded the set 50 although i have heard there is a nice opportunity from when the Dow closes to when to Set opens. I would ned to compare tis myself has i have not investigated it or traded the set.

USDJPY trade that was posted as stopped. that was the trade prior my invention notes. Intervention analysis still applies. I atually went long at 76.20 and took the profit at 76.55. I feel we will consolidate and test 76 area again and possibly push down to 75.50 . I don't see the Japanesse government letting it get below 75.00. In the unlikely case of 75.00 being broken on a daily candle/bar it could go to 72.00.?? As for trading from this zone risk , reward acceptable.

EURUSD possible daily topping pattern at resistance 1.3220 area, support 3072. daily zones. This could go either way at present . a break higher could go 3650,3678.3700 area .. The 1.3150 is key, looking at the daily we really have not gone no where fast. This recent rally could just be a relief rally if we don't make new highs .If the EU can not make a new daily high this week expect a return to the 1.2600 zone

AUDUSD closed at 1.0768 and about 300 pips to the all time high of 1.10796, The are its at now should present some sell opportunities, so i will be waiting for a andle reversal setup .

.

USDCHF This looks somewhat bearish on the weekly with daily resistance at 9244,and 9303 support 9108 . longer term support 8855. This looks like not a bad setup, so my trade will be.

Wait for support to be broken and then entry sells at old support which will be resistance looking for weakness and a candle /bar reversal signal.

I have not been posting much lately due to trading 5 minute setups and these are to quick to post.

Happy Trading

USDCHF, after taking two longs yesterday , first earning 23 pips on 70%, 30% stopped at breakeven, 2nd trade long was entered at 9183 (30 pips), closde at 9212 , and the 3rd trade was a sell based on the weekly setup trades above, Sell limit was triggered at 9216 and closed at 9129 (84 pips), Total for USCHF daily pips =137.

Missed the AUD trade.

EU broke higher and is presently trading at 3260. Long entry on the EU was 3138, 3182 , current price 3258, so some nice pips there.

Cable buy was1.5798, current price 1.5892.

NZDUSD buy was 8348 current price 8356

No Trade on the USDJPY, am preparing position setups waiting for BOJ Intervention.

Looking to sell cable hgher 5813 zone. I did sell at 5812 and closed at breakeven

"Have plenty of trades runing and some great opportunities, should be a good week this one" and its been a great week so far..

Good to see you here Paulo again.....

Will continue to view your trades with interest.

[Paulo1]

Hi Chivas, How are you? Hope all is well.

Looking at the NZDUSD daily i am alerted to the daily close at 8336, H 8405. Trade entry sell limit 8375/90 ish stop 8420 target 8150 with extentsion to 7900. For the less risk takers wait for a daily trendline break and seel on a retest of the TL. weekly support 8287 , Daily resistance zones, 8355, 8372, 8388.8434.

For a few, Sell USDCAD 9969 stop 9991.

There are plenty of potential setups , patience needed.

[Paulo1]

Trading Price Action.

Did this trade today. chart explains.

[Paulo1]

Hi Chivas, How are you? Hope all is well.

Looking at the NZDUSD daily i am alerted to the daily close at 8336, H 8405. Trade entry sell limit 8375/90 ish stop 8420 target 8150 with extentsion to 7900. For the less risk takers wait for a daily trendline break and seel on a retest of the TL. weekly support 8287 , Daily resistance zones, 8355, 8372, 8388.8434.

For a few, Sell USDCAD 9969 stop 9991.

There are plenty of potential setups , patience needed.

USDCAD trade was entered at 9660 profit 33 pips

NZDUSD was triggered at 8370 , missed the 75 entry. holding plus 24 pips.

Cable price action trade posted netted 73 pips.

USDJPY still holding from 76.53 , plus 100 pips

Not a bad days trading.

[Paulo1]

Hi Chivas, How are you? Hope all is well.

Looking at the NZDUSD daily i am alerted to the daily close at 8336, H 8405. Trade entry sell limit 8375/90 ish stop 8420 target 8150 with extentsion to 7900. For the less risk takers wait for a daily trendline break and seel on a retest of the TL. weekly support 8287 , Daily resistance zones, 8355, 8372, 8388.8434.

For a few, Sell USDCAD 9969 stop 9991.

There are plenty of potential setups , patience needed.

USDCAD trade was entered at 9660 profit 33 pips

NZDUSD was triggered at 8370 , missed the 75 entry. holding plus 24 pips.

Cable price action trade posted netted 73 pips.

USDJPY still holding from 76.53 , plus 100 pips

Not a bad days trading.

“In the real world there is no ‘easy way’ to assure a financial profit. At least, it is gratifying to

rationalize that we would rather lose intelligently than win ignorantly.”

Richard A. Epstein

The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic

[Chivas]

Hi Chivas, How are you? Hope all is well.

Looking at the NZDUSD daily i am alerted to the daily close at 8336, H 8405. Trade entry sell limit 8375/90 ish stop 8420 target 8150 with extentsion to 7900. For the less risk takers wait for a daily trendline break and seel on a retest of the TL. weekly support 8287 , Daily resistance zones, 8355, 8372, 8388.8434.

For a few, Sell USDCAD 9969 stop 9991.

There are plenty of potential setups , patience needed.

USDCAD trade was entered at 9660 profit 33 pips

NZDUSD was triggered at 8370 , missed the 75 entry. holding plus 24 pips.

Cable price action trade posted netted 73 pips.

USDJPY still holding from 76.53 , plus 100 pips

Not a bad days trading.

Great work indeed...

[Paulo1]

I sent this trade to my in circle of traders yesterday.

EURUSD sell the rally , zones for entry are 3270, 3300, and 3325, 3270 will most likely present the best psooble sell zone. look for a confluence of information at this zones. current price 1.5258 bid.

Entry was 3272 and closed at 3162, 100 pip gain.

GBPAUD sold at 4826 closed 4748 78 pip gain

USDCAD was stopped minus 23 pips.

[Paulo1]

Trading is one of those things where you have to know everything, once you understand everything you will only use 5% max of everything you know. New traders will have every indicator they can on their charts, and once they start taking them all off, then trading gets better. Naked charts are the best to read price action, look at the swing high/lows, confluence of info at those zones and trade from these zones. Risk management and trading pysychology are the keys for success. 10 reaons a trader will fail, 1. Undercapitalisation, 2. Reliance on external sources, 3. Lack of a trading plan, 4.Inconsistent application of a trading plan, 5.Not taking losses,6. Cutting profits to soon. 7.Misunderstanding how markets operate, 8. Lack of confidence, 9. Performance anxiety, .10 Fear of the unknown.

Intuitive trading process creates optimism, is challenging and fun, provides calm mental state, results in high level of performance. YOUR TRADING NEEDS TO REACH THIS STATE OF DISCIPLINE- WHEN A SIGNAL IS SEEN IT MUST BE TAKEN WITHOUT HESITATION.

Subjective trading process creates anxiety, fear and anger, makes traders psychologically ill prepared, results in low level of performance. iF YOU HAVE ANY OF THIS, YOU KNOW WHAT TO DO.

There are 3 basic rules to assist you in engaging your intuition trading.

1. Do not try to pick the high

2.And do not try to pick the low. These are beyond your control.

3. Let the market, and NOT your EGO- dictate the direction of your trade.

[Chivas]

Cracking stuff Paulo and in my early days you could probably have applied all of your 1-10 to myself...

Learn from experience....