harris campaign, clean up on aisle Electoral College

[LaoPo]

China's population will be its undoing - pure/simple fact. Any rate yuan isn't going anywhere - long as its pegged.

hmmm...that would count for many other countries as well, without birth control.

Planet earth has now 6,6 Billion people walking around it's surface...

as a comparison:

USA population in 1900: 76 million

1999: 276 million

2008: 300 million; a growth of 400% in 100 years.

http://www.census.gov/popest/archives/1990s/popclockest.txt

China had 400 Million people in 1900; with the same growth as the USA it would have a population of 1,6 billion now, instead 1,3...

http://www.worldmapper.org/posters/worldmapper_map9_ver5.pdf

"“It has been stated that, as men progress, they shall be able to travel in airships and reach any part of the world

in a few hours.”

Mahatma Ghandi, 1909 Quite a vision wouldn't you say ?

LaoPo

[think_too_mut]

Any of you people ever been to China?

Since some 30 years. I have seen and witnessed the enormous mind-boggling changes.

No one, who hasn't been there, can even imagine what has been accomplished in such a short period of time.

The entire west has it's mouth full of critics about China and it's rulers; many of the criticism is true but it's also true that nobody on this planet has experience in running a country with 1,300.000.000 (Billion) people which lifted itself from it's ashes in a mere 30 years from deep poverty....nobody, but the Chinese themselves.

Put all the people of greater Europe (710 million) and the USA (300 million) together and you're still 300 million people short to reach the number in China...

It is impossible to install democracy (also monetary democracy) in such a short period (look what's happening in "democratic" Thailand...) and it needs time but in 30-50 years from now a certain form of democracy will prevail in China.

A long time you say....? Not if one looks at the history of the country of many thousands of years.

Sorry to be off topic but it has to be seen in a historic perspective, also regarding the Yuan, if one wants to see things clear, if possible at all

LaoPo

Should note that about 1 billion of the 1.3 still live in those ashes, only about 300 million have recieved any benefit from these "enormous mind-boggling changes" and over 100 million of those are migrant workers that don't live in the best of conditions.

TH

Well, I've been traveling inside China a lot, including in rural areas, since 30 years. Your quote about 1 billion living in ashes is nonsense.When was the last time you were in China OUTSIDE the cities ?

I am not denying China has still a long way to go, but the story you're telling is not correct.

Criticizing China is easy but nobody outside China has experience in running such a huge country but the Chinese themselves.

Look how long it took for the west to become ''civilized'' and industrialized. China is a mere 30 years on track, It takes a bit more time than that.

Many forget than 50 years ago television just started and only limited people had access to a car, let alone access to internet or having a mobile phone.

It takes time.

LaoPo

Why is it a nonsense? It could be a bit rough but 1/3 of China has seen more or less of a progress, 2/3 have seen nothing. Limits to local travel emphasize that too - many don't even know about skyscrapers of Shangai or Guangzhou.

My biggest customer in China, China Mobile kind of confirms that: 435 million subscribers. Add a few smaller operators and that's just about third (35%) of China population that can afford to spend 5-6$ a month on mobile phones.

(In Japan, it's over 100% - many people have more than 1 mobile phone and monthly average is 10 times that of China or India, at 50$).

Before WW1, China participated in world exchange by 32%.

Mao and his commies reduced that to 4%.

Now it's about 16% of world exchange. Everybody thinks Chinese goods everywhere but it's only half of what China used to be 94 years ago.

[LaoPo]

Why is it a nonsense? It could be a bit rough but 1/3 of China has seen more or less of a progress, 2/3 have seen nothing. Limits to local travel emphasize that too - many don't even know about skyscrapers of Shangai or Guangzhou.

My biggest customer in China, China Mobile kind of confirms that: 435 million subscribers. Add a few smaller operators and that's just about third (35%) of China population that can afford to spend 5-6$ a month on mobile phones.

(In Japan, it's over 100% - many people have more than 1 mobile phone and monthly average is 10 times that of China or India, at 50$).

Before WW1, China participated in world exchange by 32%.

Mao and his commies reduced that to 4%.

Now it's about 16% of world exchange. Everybody thinks Chinese goods everywhere but it's only half of what China used to be 94 years ago.

China mobile users surpassed the 700 million number last year. Do some research and you'll find it. I have been in a China mobile office in Hangzhou and you will not believe the number of people, subscribing with their just newly bought phones; day in day out. I had to be there for a subscription for my own (China Mobile) mobile more than 5 years ago.

I have been in several IT/Communication/TV/Computer shopping towers/centers all over China. Those towers have hundreds of large and small shops selling everything connected to the previous mentioned industries, from cables to the latest models of Sony and Nokia and Apple computers as well as Acer, Lenovo (former IBM) and many more.

You have no idea about the crowds inside, buying the latest models of about everything. I have NEVER seen a shop in the west that is so bloody busy as the ones in China.

It means there is an enormous hunger for the newest gadgets and computers.

But of course China is still way back in development percentage wise versus the Japanese style of living but what do you expect after the locks were removed from the doors just 30 years ago ?

Japan (and Germany) were the first countries after WWII who were able to rebuild their -completely- bombed and destroyed industries with aid money from the west and were able to buy the latest machineries and technologies. That's more than 60 years ago !

China had to begin from scratch, late 1970's after the darkest period in their thousands of years' history in the period early 20st century to around 1975 when the industrialization began.

So, China is short of Japan by some 30 years in development, apart from the atrocities Japan caused with their army in China....ever heard of the Nanking massacre 1937 * ?

Most people in the west have no idea how poor the people in China were during the pre- and Mao period. How can you expect that 1.300.000.000 people are able to reach the same luxury lifestyle the west and Japan has in just 3 decades ? You tell me !

I know you live and work in Japan but to compare the two countries and lifestyles is unfair and impossible. How can you compare a country with 127 million people versus a country 10 times larger in population, apart from it's size ?

I remember the Western anti feelings towards Japan and it's (at first) copied products and cars. Look at those products now. All that was reached in a time frame of a mere 60 years.

The same but on a much greater scale will happen with China and it's products. The west has no idea how many millions of bright new intellectual students graduate from the many top universities, both in China and overseas every year. 2008 reached the staggering number of 6 million graduates.

It takes time.

* http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nanking_Massacre

LaoPo

[12DrinkMore]

The more I look into this, the greater I am convinced that the rantings in the Western media about how China and Asia will certainly suffer as much or worse than the West are totally misplaced. These guys are still on the "West is Best" and that the Chinese rely on "Our Western technology and manufacturing skills". Hah! The technology is being developed in Asia, the manufacturing is occurring in Asia. All that the West seem to produce is hot air and debts.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/oc...ditcrunch.china

How long has it been since the West has been relying on Chinese production to support the consumer boom in the West? Fifteen years max? Well, here's a question, who was producing and buying before that? Yes! It was the West manufacturing and and consuming their own goods. For many years Western economic development managed very well without China. But now it is DEPENDENT on Asian manufacturing.

Who can deny that China/Asia is now in a much better position to develop its own internal markets, rather than rely on the debt ridden West to keep things rolling? And don't forget that the West has moved much of its manufacturing capacity out to Asia, so where will they come to for the TVs, computers, mobile phones, motorcars, motorcycles? Yes! Made in Asia.

I suppose you can either bury your heads in the sand or wake up and see where things are moving.

And here's a thought, maybe Asia will not EVEN NEED the Western markets and Western skills in a few years? Surely there are more than enough Asians to provide enough economical development to achieve this? If I was sitting up there in China, it is certainly how I would be thinking.

Edited January 11, 2009 by 12DrinkMore