Crude Oil Futures Going To Final High?

[Harmonica]

Fundamental and Technical sharing of info possible, my friends, without starting another war between the two factions?

Mine are technical -- the December bottom took a big hit momentumwise and imp. uptrendlines were broken. This, along with the current rallys' volume suggests to me that we are heading for a final TOP in this long uptrend -- where will it be? Are we going to take out the 54-55 pervious top or go higher.

My plan is to go SHORT @ or as close as possible to the upcoming top. This is easier said than done, but I will try to get it right -- My expectation is that, from this top we are then going to head into the deep south, in the $10 range over the next couple years. If right, SHORT profits can be substantial. If wrong, don't worry -- an unequivocal STOP will get me out in a jiffy.

I would like your opinions, tech, funadamental or other -- anybody seen the latest "commitment of traders" report?

Regards

[Khun ?]

Where was you 2 years ago. This day in and day out calling of the markets is crap. Most smart investors want stuff they only have to track a few times a month to insure no disasters have caused the company or investment problems and of course read a bit on macro conditionsin the newspaper/ mags/internet.

How many day traders ever make it to retirement with some cash. My guess would be not many. A wrong move just a couple times a year and they lost the whole year.

You know the type that don't normally have much cash to lose anyways

and they want to show their skils on the net. The same type that only drink in bars at happy hour and talk about how they made a hundred bucks on the market yesterday. Dime a dozen in thailand.

Once a week of hearing this stuff may be to much for most of us.

[Ajarn]

Oil in the $10 range over the next couple years?

I wish I had your cajones to short with that as an expected level

But, I'd only bet my cajones on that one, never cash

How have you been doing the last few years, overall? I'm still a bit on the downside, overall. ALVR and Google helped a lot on the day-trade side for me.

I wish I knew the right way to move- and when

[Harmonica]

Oil in the $10 range over the next couple years?

I wish I had your cajones to short with that as an expected level 

But, I'd only bet my cajones on that one, never cash 

How have you been doing the last few years, overall? I'm still a bit on the downside, overall. ALVR and Google helped a lot on the day-trade side for me.

I wish I knew the right way to move- and when 

Yes, the $10 range in the next couple years + or -

This is how I make a living in LOS -- no complaints -- capital intact -- not rich, not flamboyant, no big moves, not taking unnecessary risks, just steady, steady annual gains, enough to pay ALL living expenses and put away some for the future.

[Harmonica]

>>>> How many day traders ever make it to retirement with some cash. My guess would be not many. A wrong move just a couple times a year and they lost the whole year. <<<<<

I'm not a daytrader.

Reload and fire!

[Khun ?]

I think he is saying a gain of $10 on the short. Easier just buy a hedge that does alot of shorting of stock. If you want to play the oils wait for the next drop in oil prices and buy XLE or look into CONROY's which pay good dividends. You must realize you are buying a company that has depleting resources so know what you are doing. What I do see is that a person that is playing in the market with daily trading must of not done that good in past because he would be to a point where he would not need to play the riskier investments as such. Over a ten year period

they will be lucky to beat the market average. These people need the fix they are gamblers and not investors. Most of these people would have just as good a chance taking the money to vegas once a month.

[PCA]

Fundamental and Technical sharing of info possible, my friends, without starting another war between the two factions?

Mine are technical -- the December bottom took a big hit momentumwise and imp. uptrendlines were broken. This, along with the current rallys' volume suggests to me that we are heading for a final TOP in this long uptrend -- where will it be? Are we going to take out the 54-55 pervious top or go higher.

My plan is to go SHORT @ or as close as possible to the upcoming top. This is easier said than done, but I will try to get it right -- My expectation is that, from this top we are then going to head into the deep south, in the $10 range over the next couple years. If right, SHORT profits can be substantial. If wrong, don't worry -- an unequivocal STOP will get me out in a jiffy.

I would like your opinions, tech, funadamental or other -- anybody seen the latest "commitment of traders" report?

Regards

Hi Harmonica,

technically you can try to short the crude at around 51 with a tough stop. Despite we still have a longterm uptrend there is rather a chance for the market to switch into a price congestion with a rangetop of 51-52 and a bottom of 40 than we well see new highs.

I am of the oppinion that oil will drop within the next 2 years but my oppinion like everyones else doesnt count in Trading.

Crude oil and all the energies are quite difficult to trade at the moment and if you are not really a pro then better you keep your fingers away.

Regards,

Peter

[Harmonica]

Fundamental and Technical sharing of info possible, my friends, without starting another war between the two factions?

Mine are technical -- the December bottom took a big hit momentumwise and imp. uptrendlines were broken. This, along with the current rallys' volume suggests to me that we are heading for a final TOP in this long uptrend -- where will it be? Are we going to take out the 54-55 pervious top or go higher.

My plan is to go SHORT @ or as close as possible to the upcoming top. This is easier said than done, but I will try to get it right -- My expectation is that, from this top we are then going to head into the deep south, in the $10 range over the next couple years. If right, SHORT profits can be substantial. If wrong, don't worry -- an unequivocal STOP will get me out in a jiffy.

I would like your opinions, tech, funadamental or other -- anybody seen the latest "commitment of traders" report?

Regards

Hi Harmonica,

technically you can try to short the crude at around 51 with a tough stop. Despite we still have a longterm uptrend there is rather a chance for the market to switch into a price congestion with a rangetop of 51-52 and a bottom of 40 than we well see new highs.

I am of the oppinion that oil will drop within the next 2 years but my oppinion like everyones else doesnt count in Trading.

Crude oil and all the energies are quite difficult to trade at the moment and if you are not really a pro then better you keep your fingers away.

Regards,

Peter

Thanks for that, Peter. Your reasoning as to why we are going to have a price congestion?

[Harmonica]

I think he is saying a gain of $10 on the short.

No Khun?, that is NOT what I am saying --- down to the $10 range is what I said.

[PCA]

Hi Harmonica,

as you are seemingly focussed on TA I supposed to post a chart with some explanations here but finally I failed to do that.

If you give me your e-mail I can send it to you.

Regards,

Peter

Fundamental and Technical sharing of info possible, my friends, without starting another war between the two factions?

Mine are technical -- the December bottom took a big hit momentumwise and imp. uptrendlines were broken. This, along with the current rallys' volume suggests to me that we are heading for a final TOP in this long uptrend -- where will it be? Are we going to take out the 54-55 pervious top or go higher.

My plan is to go SHORT @ or as close as possible to the upcoming top. This is easier said than done, but I will try to get it right -- My expectation is that, from this top we are then going to head into the deep south, in the $10 range over the next couple years. If right, SHORT profits can be substantial. If wrong, don't worry -- an unequivocal STOP will get me out in a jiffy.

I would like your opinions, tech, funadamental or other -- anybody seen the latest "commitment of traders" report?

Regards

Hi Harmonica,

technically you can try to short the crude at around 51 with a tough stop. Despite we still have a longterm uptrend there is rather a chance for the market to switch into a price congestion with a rangetop of 51-52 and a bottom of 40 than we well see new highs.

I am of the oppinion that oil will drop within the next 2 years but my oppinion like everyones else doesnt count in Trading.

Crude oil and all the energies are quite difficult to trade at the moment and if you are not really a pro then better you keep your fingers away.

Regards,

Peter

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Thanks for that, Peter. Your reasoning as to why we are going to have a price congestion?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Edited January 27, 2005 by PCA

[Harmonica]

Food for thought for the fundamentalists here ----

There is no shortage of oil. Not even in the next 100 years.

Wall Street Journal says there's plentty of Oil and the shortage fears are unjustified.

3.5 trillion barrels of oil that soak the clay in the Orinoco basin in Venezuela, and the Athabasca tar sands in Alberta, Canada. Yes, that's trillion -- over a century's worth of global supply, at the current 30-billion-barrel-a-year rate of consumption.

Alan Greenspan noted that, "During the past decade... gross additions to [world] reserves have significantly exceeded the extraction of oil the reserves replaced."

Nice, nice, nice!

[ProThaiExpat]

Harmonica: If you click the reply button at the bottom of the message being replied to rathr than going to the reply button at the bottom of the page of the thread, the system will put your quotes in for you and make reading your valuable posts easier for us old dolts.

My read is that much of the price of oil above 40 was speculation by traders and certainly above 50 would be a good play, providing you had enough "margin" so you won't get a margin call on your move, if the price goes over 60 in a speculators boom.

Likewise, since oil is dollar denominated, I think the weakness in the dollar must be accounted for in detmining the long future price level.

Don't forget OPEC. I doubt if their ministers will ever let the price of oil to go below $25 a barrel plus adjustment for dollar deprciation. My guess is $30 is your best hope, but what is wrong with 20 points on a short play?

[Harmonica]

Harmonica: If you click the reply button at the bottom of the message being replied to rathr than going to the reply button at the bottom of the page of the thread, the system will put your quotes in for you and make reading your valuable posts easier for us old dolts.

My read is that much of the price of oil above 40 was speculation by traders and certainly above 50 would be a good play, providing you had enough "margin" so you won't get a margin call on your move, if the price goes over 60 in a speculators boom.

Likewise, since oil is dollar denominated, I think the weakness in the dollar must be accounted for in detmining the long future price level.

Don't forget OPEC.  I doubt if their ministers will ever let the price of oil to go below $25 a barrel plus adjustment for dollar deprciation.  My guess is $30 is your best hope, but what is wrong with 20 points on a short play?

Thanks for that, PTE -- nothing wrong with a 20-point play; wouldn't scoff at 10 pts. either.

[Harmonica]

Approaching support! And much lower @ 42.33 (currently) is the 200-day moving average -- its got to rebound by or before then.

God, do I love it so!