Could The Dollar Be In A New Bull Market?

[flying]

I don't know of a single soul in my circle that didn't see this recent financial crisis coming. What's important is that it doesn't break you and that you don't break yourself guessing exactly when it will commence.

By this comment are you saying as I often do that this slide has yet to begin in earnest?

[Naam]

I don't know of a single soul in my circle that didn't see this recent financial crisis coming. What's important is that it doesn't break you and that you don't break yourself guessing exactly when it will commence.

By this comment are you saying as I often do that this slide has yet to begin in earnest?

no matter how often you repeat it, i say there won't be an "earnest" slide. but (as i mentioned repeatly) we will face a "mini" crisis in 2010 that will in my [not so] humble view provide good (but by far not as good as 2009) opportunities to pile up more fiat money and fiat holdings.

[flying]

no matter how often you repeat it, i say there won't be an "earnest" slide. but (as i mentioned repeatly) we will face a "mini" crisis in 2010 that will in my [not so] humble view provide good (but by far not as good as 2009) opportunities to pile up more fiat money and fiat holdings.

As always I am only speaking of what I am seeing here in the US

I have no ideas about how the rest will fare.

But here..............Not looking too good.

Next slide & it will surely slide....will be a hard one to slow.

[lannarebirth]

I don't know of a single soul in my circle that didn't see this recent financial crisis coming. What's important is that it doesn't break you and that you don't break yourself guessing exactly when it will commence.

By this comment are you saying as I often do that this slide has yet to begin in earnest?

No I'm not. It has clearly commenced and may in fact be over. The stock market that is. They can bubble it if they choose. It depends whether or not they think they can kill the dollar and still sell bonds. I don't think they can. Not at these interest rates at least.

edit: The thing to keep your eye on IMO is whether or not the market and the dollar can rise togeher. That's happened a few times this past 2 weeks.

Edited December 12, 2009 by lannarebirth

[Orion76]

It sure has been an interesting week for the USD, Gold and Crude

Here is a chart of the S&P 500 with the USD Index as an overlay:

If your eyes tell you that there may be an inverse relationship, artificial as it may be, then you may note that while equities haven't been doing great, they are not responding as violently as commodities have the last week.

Warning flag of a possible imminent correction? Gradual unwinding of the carry trade? Random coincidental noise? Nobody knows for sure. But use tight stops whatever your trade is because my guess is that there is a lot of volatility is on the horizon.

Volume is going down as traders take their holidays, and a lot of institutional super traders aren't getting bonuses this year so volume may be even lower than usual this xmas because there is less incentive for the big institutional guys to spend 16 hours a day at their trading desk during the holidays.

[lannarebirth]

If it does well the next two years that will be an indication it is in a bubble. What it needs to do is tag its LT uptrend line (green). It can do that by making a sharp correction or trading in a range for the next couple of years. It did not test its last breakout or indeed the one at $450, but all things in due time.

What does the charts of the USD Index tell you?

It tells me that it has traded through 3 out of 4 levels of ST resistance. It has stronger resistance at the 78ish level.

edit: I wouldn't take anything that happens this month and early next month to be strongly trend indicative. Huge moves this year and folks need to lock in some gains or roll out.

And here we are m/l:

Edited December 18, 2009 by lannarebirth

[Naam]

no matter how often you repeat it, i say there won't be an "earnest" slide. but (as i mentioned repeatly) we will face a "mini" crisis in 2010 that will in my [not so] humble view provide good (but by far not as good as 2009) opportunities to pile up more fiat money and fiat holdings.

As always I am only speaking of what I am seeing here in the US I have no ideas about how the rest will fare.

But here..............Not looking too good. Next slide & it will surely slide....will be a hard one to slow.

Flying... i am talking about making money. that is possible in the U.S. of A. and the rest of the world. the bigger the crisis, the better the opportunities. is that so difficult to understand? just look at your holdings of precious metals. didn't they increase in (fiat money) value BECAUSE of the crisis?

[flying]

no matter how often you repeat it, i say there won't be an "earnest" slide. but (as i mentioned repeatly) we will face a "mini" crisis in 2010 that will in my [not so] humble view provide good (but by far not as good as 2009) opportunities to pile up more fiat money and fiat holdings.

As always I am only speaking of what I am seeing here in the US I have no ideas about how the rest will fare.

But here..............Not looking too good. Next slide & it will surely slide....will be a hard one to slow.

Flying... i am talking about making money. that is possible in the U.S. of A. and the rest of the world. the bigger the crisis, the better the opportunities. is that so difficult to understand? just look at your holdings of precious metals. didn't they increase in (fiat money) value BECAUSE of the crisis?

Well if we both live another year or two .....One will be right & one will be wrong

Earnest slide or mini slide....we will see wont we?

As for PM's yes they climb in USD because of the USD falling. But, I did not swap out of fiat in the hopes of more fiat or, as you say making money.

I make my money with my trade/skills though the crisis may close the door on a few of them. But I have a few other skills that are flexible in recession/depression. We will see.

But all that aside............I think it is a big joke that folks think they are making out from the crisis.

Yes they can accumulate dollars but can they accumulate faster than the power/value of those dollars & the hard assets they already hold drop? Again we will see in the next year or two. Were the rich in Germany,Zimbabwe,Iceland etc. rich at the end of the day? I know ...I know....that could never happen to real countries eh?

Hope for the best prepare for the worst. That is about as middle of the road as I can be.

A year or two & we will see about our disagreement on mini or major.

But either way it is not our generation that will feel the full effect of all this magic QE

[Naam]

But all that aside............I think it is a big joke that folks think they are making out from the crisis. Yes they can accumulate dollars but can they accumulate faster than the power/value of those dollars & the hard assets they already hold drop?

sorry Flying, that's just more bla-bla what you present. the dollars or whatever fiat currency/paper they made and hold can all be converted at any time into any other asset or even gold (the latter if they are poor and/or ignorant). and if you think that's a joke, well... that is your prerogative, albeit quite a lame one.

but if you are telling me now that your wife pays for steaks, vegetables and whatever is served on your dining table or needed in your home instead of fiat money with gold coins then i am not sure whether i will take it as a joke and laugh out loudly or just call you a liar.

next!

[neverdie]

^More doom and gloom I suspect

[Gary A]

I watch the Bangkok Post currency rates. During the past week, gold has dropped from 18,500 to 17,500. The dollar is holding its own while the Euro and pound are weakening. Is this going to be a long term trend or just a fluke?

[flying]

sorry Flying, that's just more bla-bla what you present. the dollars or whatever fiat currency/paper they made and hold can all be converted at any time into any other asset or even gold (the latter if they are poor and/or ignorant). and if you think that's a joke, well... that is your prerogative, albeit quite a lame one.

but if you are telling me now that your wife pays for steaks, vegetables and whatever is served on your dining table or needed in your home instead of fiat money with gold coins then i am not sure whether i will take it as a joke and laugh out loudly or just call you a liar.

next!

Yes such is your dismissive style

Your words not mine though. I never said I converted all & many times have stated exactly how much I did convert.

Your usual response of paying for things in gold is getting so old I will not bother to reply to it yet again.

I am seeing a trend in your posting though. The bla bla is your first line of defence.

Perhaps some day we will actually see posts with substance from you...Other than the I am rich & you are not line of defence

You tend to dismiss nearly everything everyone says. Even folks with credentials because ....gasp...it was conveyed on a you tube clip.

Eventually you will have to put up or.....?

Lets just do as I said & if we live a year or two longer see who was right about the mini or major slide.

Edited December 21, 2009 by flying

[Naam]

(flying @ 2009-12-21 10:29:02)

But all that aside............I think it is a big joke that folks think they are making out from the crisis. Yes they can accumulate dollars but can they accumulate faster than the power/value of those dollars & the hard assets they already hold drop?

if that is not bla-bla, i called it bla-bla because i tried to be polite (actually it's bullshit²), to which i answered appropriately that all "fiat" profits (not necessarily dollars) can be converted any time into "bug holdings" then i don't what bla-bla is and no irrelevant accusations like "last line of defence" or sidesteps diverting from the discussed topic like "interesting times... in a year or two... down the road..." can change the mind of any reader who's IQ is above 87.5!

[flying]

if that is not bla-bla, i called it bla-bla because i tried to be polite (actually it's bullshit²), to which i answered appropriately that all "fiat" profits (not necessarily dollars) can be converted any time into "bug holdings" then i don't what bla-bla is and no irrelevant accusations like "last line of defence" or sidesteps diverting from the discussed topic like "interesting times... in a year or two... down the road..." can change the mind of any reader who's IQ is above 87.5!

Well that is just more of the same isn't it?

I...me etc....

Some folks have a bit of a wider view of the impact of this mess

So as much as I would like to give a dam_n I cant....... No soup for you ( Jerry Seinfeld)

Next !

[churchill]

If it does well the next two years that will be an indication it is in a bubble. What it needs to do is tag its LT uptrend line (green). It can do that by making a sharp correction or trading in a range for the next couple of years. It did not test its last breakout or indeed the one at $450, but all things in due time.

What does the charts of the USD Index tell you?

It tells me that it has traded through 3 out of 4 levels of ST resistance. It has stronger resistance at the 78ish level.

edit: I wouldn't take anything that happens this month and early next month to be strongly trend indicative. Huge moves this year and folks need to lock in some gains or roll out.

Looks as if we are through 78 - http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX

and If it stays around these levels into New Year we could see some short covering ?

[churchill]

The Dollar, Euro and Gold

http://www.kitco.com/ind/palha/dec212009.html

[lannarebirth]

If it does well the next two years that will be an indication it is in a bubble. What it needs to do is tag its LT uptrend line (green). It can do that by making a sharp correction or trading in a range for the next couple of years. It did not test its last breakout or indeed the one at $450, but all things in due time.

What does the charts of the USD Index tell you?

It tells me that it has traded through 3 out of 4 levels of ST resistance. It has stronger resistance at the 78ish level.

edit: I wouldn't take anything that happens this month and early next month to be strongly trend indicative. Huge moves this year and folks need to lock in some gains or roll out.

Looks as if we are through 78 - http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX

and If it stays around these levels into New Year we could see some short covering ?

If its still at 78 in 2 weeks time after consolidating/correcting, I would take that to be ST bullish. It really needs to get above its 200dma to be IT bullish IMO.

[Abrak]

I dont know if anyone is interested in the Baht:US$ rate.

But if you look at baht it has tended to outperform US$ on the way down (but maybe underperform slightly on a trade weighted basis) but perform in line with the dollar on the way up. So if you look at the baht rate it is almost exactly the same to the US$ as it was when the US$ bottomed about a month ago.

http://www2.bot.or.th/statistics/ReportPag...mp;language=eng

[Lopburi99]

33.0550 right now per XE. Down...down...down...

[sokal]

no matter how often you repeat it, i say there won't be an "earnest" slide. but (as i mentioned repeatly) we will face a "mini" crisis in 2010 that will in my [not so] humble view provide good (but by far not as good as 2009) opportunities to pile up more fiat money and fiat holdings.

As always I am only speaking of what I am seeing here in the US I have no ideas about how the rest will fare.

But here..............Not looking too good. Next slide & it will surely slide....will be a hard one to slow.

Flying... i am talking about making money. that is possible in the U.S. of A. and the rest of the world. the bigger the crisis, the better the opportunities. is that so difficult to understand? just look at your holdings of precious metals. didn't they increase in (fiat money) value BECAUSE of the crisis?

No, metals or real money, whatever you want to call it,has just avoided a loss.

[lannarebirth]

[sokal]

What is real money then ?

the US dollar ? Air has more molecular value then the digits that are computed onto your bank account.

[churchill]

U.S. dollar may be back in fashion again

Big jump in currency called ‘enormously unusual' and could mark turning point for greenback

The U.S. dollar caught the attention of currency traders yesterday, soaring against the world's major currencies in a move that may well lead to a reassessment of the beleaguered greenback.

It chalked up gains against 11 currencies ranging from just under 1 per cent against the South Korean won to 2.16 per cent against the New Zealand dollar, according to Bloomberg.

Caught up in the maelstrom was the euro and the Canadian dollar, which fell 1.24 per cent and 1.54 per cent, respectively, against the greenback.

“In the equity and commodity markets a movement of [one percentage point] is obviously rather commonplace, but in the world of foreign exchange trading a move of more than [a percentage point] is rather unusual, and certainly a move by this many currencies relative to the U.S. dollar is, if not wholly unprecedented, enormously unusual and worthy of note,” said Dennis Gartman, author of the Gartman Letter.

Among the technical indicators suggesting there is a “watershed shift in favour of the U.S. dollar” against the euro is the breaking of the 200-day moving average by the euro against the greenback, he said.

Since late November ( the start of this thread ), the U.S. dollar index has risen 5.5 per cent against a basket of six major world currencies.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-b...article1438256/

Continued ..

[flying]

U.S. dollar may be back in fashion again

Big jump in currency called ‘enormously unusual' and could mark turning point for greenback

I have not read the article yet but......

I was just thinking today that it seems every time a treasury auction approaches....

The week before the USD will magically strengthen & PM's take a hit.

It is getting pretty predictable....so perhaps not that unusual?

Edited January 21, 2010 by flying

[craigt3365]

Sorry to butt in on this, I am a newbie to all this for sure. But, I am fairly bullish on the $$. Many Euro countries are in trouble. Greece is barely hanging on. Spain and Portugal are not far behind. Germany and UK are not doing great. China is wavering...but doing OK if you believe their numbers (just like we believed all the hype at the Olympics?). So what is left? I like reading many of your posts. Great info.

[churchill]

(lannarebirth) said "If its still at 78 in 2 weeks time after consolidating/correcting, I would take that to be ST bullish. It really needs to get above its 200dma to be IT bullish IMO. "

Are you bullish now ? http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=s

[lannarebirth]

(lannarebirth) said "If its still at 78 in 2 weeks time after consolidating/correcting, I would take that to be ST bullish. It really needs to get above its 200dma to be IT bullish IMO. "

Are you bullish now ? http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=s

For now I am. Hopefully it can advance a bit more then pull back to a then flattened 200ma and nearer 50ma in 3-5 weeks time. If that happens it might be a good IT entry.

[churchill]

Euro Proving No Reserve Asset as Central Banks Shift

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...TRgu8&pos=2

[AlexLah]

Could a reason be that the currency swaps have ended?

[churchill]

A change of tune ?

Central Bankers Support Dollar Reserve

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405...=googlenews_wsj