"thailand On The Brink Of Civil War"

[churchill]

Violence in Thailand has made the front page of several international newspapers including The Times, The Wall Street Journal and The Nation.

The Bangkok Post says the ongoing tension could eventually trigger a civil war.

http://www.france24.com/en/20100423-bangko...ransplant-media

[wintermute]

Yawn. I doubt it. Even these "grenade" attacks are some weak sh*t. It looks like the usual sissy bomb scares and low budget grenades tactics to frighten people.

If someone was intent on blowing up as many civilians as possible a few actual frags or IED type bombs would take out way more than a couple people.

[chiang mai]

Yawn. I doubt it. Even these "grenade" attacks are some weak sh*t. It looks like the usual sissy bomb scares and low budget grenades tactics to frighten people.

If someone was intent on blowing up as many civilians as possible a few actual frags or IED type bombs would take out way more than a couple people.

What a sad reply that is, sorry if the death toll wasn't up to your usual expectations but hey, that's still three lives ended and 85 people injured, nothing there to yawn about at all!

[slapout]

I really do not see or am aware of the conditions in Thailand which could justify a 'Civil War'.

[Tejas]

I really do not see or am aware of the conditions in Thailand which could justify a 'Civil War'.

Justified or not, the flow of information has been manipulated in such a way as to create a divide between rural (agricultural) and urban (industrial) Thailand.

Myths of what each side is fighting for have been put forth by "leaders."

In the end, no matter who wins, the masses lose.

Why? Because it isn't about democracy or dictators or freedom........it is about MONEY.

It is about who gets the most pieces of Thailand's money pie: rural elites or urban elites.

The poor farmers, the soldiers, the police........all are pawns in a sick and twisted game.

The game is as old as our species.

Chok dee Thailand.

[churchill]

Thai stocks fall as top broker warns of civil war

Thailand's stock market fell

nearly 2 percent at one stage on Friday as the country's top

broker warned escalating political violence could lead to civil

war and anyone buying Thai shares now was taking "a huge risk".

continued .. http://in.reuters.com/article/specialEvent...E63M0B520100423

[Soutpeel]

I really do not see or am aware of the conditions in Thailand which could justify a 'Civil War'.

And I would add the mai pen rai attitude of Thai's is not conjucive to civil war either

[wintermute]

Yawn. I doubt it. Even these "grenade" attacks are some weak sh*t. It looks like the usual sissy bomb scares and low budget grenades tactics to frighten people.

If someone was intent on blowing up as many civilians as possible a few actual frags or IED type bombs would take out way more than a couple people.

What a sad reply that is, sorry if the death toll wasn't up to your usual expectations but hey, that's still three lives ended and 85 people injured, nothing there to yawn about at all!

Go read up on what a real civil war looks like in countries like Argentina, Vietnam, or even Chile. This is absolutely nothing at all and is the equivalent of saber rattling.

When there are roving death squads, secret police, and mass graves let me know.

I'm just sick of hearing the slippery slope fatalism on this forum. This is just two squabbling political power groups being manipulated by figureheads on top who know that they can only push so far.

[vicco]

Thai stocks fall as top broker warns of civil war

Thailand's stock market fell

nearly 2 percent at one stage on Friday as the country's top

broker warned escalating political violence could lead to civil

war and anyone buying Thai shares now was taking "a huge risk".

continued .. http://in.reuters.com/article/specialEvent...E63M0B520100423

As Baron Rothchild once stated: "The time to buy is when the blood is running in the streets" He made a huge fortune by buying up all the assets of panic stricken people when it appeared that Napoleon was going to win at Waterloo and invasion of England would follow. After Waterloo, he sold it all back at the new fair market value...

Anyway the reds are now apparently offering to talk with the government again.....lets make a deal after all?

[ExpatJ]

Thai stocks fall as top broker warns of civil war

Thailand's stock market fell

nearly 2 percent at one stage on Friday as the country's top

broker warned escalating political violence could lead to civil

war and anyone buying Thai shares now was taking "a huge risk".

continued .. http://in.reuters.com/article/specialEvent...E63M0B520100423

Well i made 200 US$ today on the Thai stock exchange. Not alot, but not bad for a days 'work'.

[elcent]

we're living in a time of high speed inter communication. Civil wars seem most unlikely and almost impossible. It is well kept to various districts which is annoying but will defiantly not lead to civil war.

There will be eruptions every now and then and not only in Thailand. Kyrgyzstan had one at the same time when it all started here and it's over now there.

[geriatrickid]

As the sad events unfolded in Bangkok,a grenade attack killed one and injured 50+ in Pattani. A week doesn't go by in the deep south without an attack on the government or civilians, and yet no one mentions "civil war' in respect to that conflict. Perhaps the public outside the conflict area has become immune to the events in the deep south, but surely that conflict is far more pressing and dangerous than the political struggle seen in Bangkok. Now that the good people of Bangkok are inconvenienced it makes headlines. I have a feeling some psycho in the south is going to say, hey, if all it takes is violence in Bangkok to make the news, let's bring our insurrection to Bangkok. This is one of the reasons I haven't wanted to see the Reds vs everyone get hysterical coverage as it will only encourage the real combatants in the south. If we look at the experience of the Russians with their inhouse terrorism, the typical Russian doesn't care as long as the violence stays in Chechnya , but once the lunatics start bombing Moscow or taking hostages, it becomes a different issue. I think there is more to be worried with in the south than the Redshirts dispute when civil war is discussed and hopefully, all the civil war talk goes away. There are enough people in Thailand that have seen the ravages of such conflicts and hopefully they will counsel their loved ones, family and friends to remain calm.

[givenall]

Yawn. I doubt it. Even these "grenade" attacks are some weak sh*t. It looks like the usual sissy bomb scares and low budget grenades tactics to frighten people.

If someone was intent on blowing up as many civilians as possible a few actual frags or IED type bombs would take out way more than a couple people.

What a sad reply that is, sorry if the death toll wasn't up to your usual expectations but hey, that's still three lives ended and 85 people injured, nothing there to yawn about at all!

Considering that a lot of other accident and disasters, etc. are responsible for much worse tragedies, and how insensitive wintermute comments are, it is not too far from the truth.

But the real tragedy is what it really happens to the Thai people. They were on the verge of becoming one of the more successful Asian countries. Now all its industry one by one will be affected if this problem is not solved quickly. These could push back Thailand progress a couple decades easily

[Loz]

Let history be your teacher, brethren!

Beginning on April 6, 1994, and for the next hundred days, up to 800,000 Tutsis were killed by Hutu militia using clubs and machetes, with as many as 10,000 killed each day.

Rwanda is one of the smallest countries in Central Africa, with just 7 million people, and is comprised of two main ethnic groups, the Hutu and the Tutsi. Although the Hutus account for 90 percent of the population, in the past, the Tutsi minority was considered the aristocracy of Rwanda and dominated Hutu peasants for decades, especially while Rwanda was under Belgian colonial rule.

Following independence from Belgium in 1962, the Hutu majority seized power and reversed the roles, oppressing the Tutsis through systematic discrimination and acts of violence. As a result, over 200,000 Tutsis fled to neighboring countries and formed a rebel guerrilla army, the Rwandan Patriotic Front.

In 1990, this rebel army invaded Rwanda and forced Hutu President Juvenal Habyalimana into signing an accord which mandated that the Hutus and Tutsis would share power.

Ethnic tensions in Rwanda were significantly heightened in October 1993 upon the assassination of Melchior Ndadaye, the first popularly elected Hutu president of neighboring Burundi.

A United Nations peacekeeping force of 2,500 multinational soldiers was then dispatched to Rwanda to preserve the fragile cease-fire between the Hutu government and the Tutsi rebels. Peace was threatened by Hutu extremists who were violently opposed to sharing any power with the Tutsis. Among these extremists were those who desired nothing less than the actual extermination of the Tutsis. It was later revealed they had even drawn up lists of prominent Tutsis and moderate Hutu politicians to kill, should the opportunity arise.

In April 1994, amid ever-increasing prospects of violence, Rwandan President Habyalimana and Burundi's new President, Cyprien Ntaryamira, held several peace meetings with Tutsi rebels. On April 6, while returning from a meeting in Tanzania, a small jet carrying the two presidents was shot down by ground-fired missiles as it approached Rwanda's airport at Kigali. Immediately after their deaths, Rwanda plunged into political violence as Hutu extremists began targeting prominent opposition figures who were on their death-lists, including moderate Hutu politicians and Tutsi leaders.

The killings then spread throughout the countryside as Hutu militia, armed with machetes, clubs, guns and grenades, began indiscriminately killing Tutsi civilians. All individuals in Rwanda carried identification cards specifying their ethnic background, a practice left over from colonial days. These 'tribal cards' now meant the difference between life and death.

Amid the onslaught, the small U.N. peacekeeping force was overwhelmed as terrified Tutsi families and moderate politicians sought protection.

Among the peacekeepers were ten soldiers from Belgium who were captured by the Hutus, tortured and murdered. As a result, the United States, France, Belgium, and Italy all began evacuating their own personnel from Rwanda.

However, no effort was made to evacuate Tutsi civilians or Hutu moderates. Instead, they were left behind entirely at the mercy of the avenging Hutu.

Back at U.N headquarters in New York, the killings were initially categorized as a breakdown in the cease-fire between the Tutsi and Hutu. Throughout the massacre, both the U.N. and the U.S. carefully refrained from labeling the killings as genocide, which would have necessitated some kind of emergency intervention.

On April 21, the Red Cross estimated that hundreds of thousands of Tutsi had already been massacred since April 6 - an extraordinary rate of killing.

The U.N. Security Council responded to the worsening crisis by voting unanimously to abandon Rwanda. The remainder of U.N. peacekeeping troops were pulled out, leaving behind a only tiny force of about 200 soldiers for the entire country.

The Hutu, now without opposition from the world community, engaged in genocidal mania, clubbing and hacking to death defenseless Tutsi families with machetes everywhere they were found. The Rwandan state radio, controlled by Hutu extremists, further encouraged the killings by broadcasting non-stop hate propaganda and even pinpointed the locations of Tutsis in hiding. The killers were aided by members of the Hutu professional class including journalists, doctors and educators, along with unemployed Hutu youths and peasants who killed Tutsis just to steal their property.

Edited April 23, 2010 by Loz

[churchill]

Swedish Ambassador Comment on the Crisis in Thailand

Lennart Liner, Ambassador of Thailand to Sweden, "stuck his neck out" as he called it himself and commented on the ongoing crisi in Thailand on 22 April 2010. Lennart Linner was one of the speakers in a panel discussion at the Foreign Correspondents Club of Thailand.

Incidentally, while the Ambassador was speaking, four grenades were shot at and detonated at a skytrain station in Bangkok, killing at least one and wounding over twenty innocent commuters at the BTS Station Saladaeng.

"We are witnessing something extraordinarily serious," the ambassador stated.

According to Lennart Linner, the incident has been grossly underestimated from the beginning. It was "supposed" to last for a few days and it has so far lasted six weeks. Even the tragic and dramatic events on April 10 did not lead the parties to enter negotiations - it only hardened the stand of both sides.

"The emerging civil groups who take their own actions is a hint of worse things to come," he added.

The ambassador also pointed to the grave miscalculations on both sides of what the other side would or could do, like the statements "They will never dare to shoot" and "They will never dare to come and throw us out of this area". Both sides should realize that so far they have been wrong about how far their opponent is willing to go.

"I think it is still an option to pull back from the brink but it is narrowing," the ambassador said adding that the gap currently seemed to be only widening, broadening and deepening.

"It is like two trains rushing towards each other on the same track in a dark tunnel - the only light seems to that of the approaching train," he said, summing up his gloomy description of the situation.

http://www.scandasia.com/viewNews.php?coun...mp;news_id=6191

[PhilHarries]

I really do not see or am aware of the conditions in Thailand which could justify a 'Civil War'.

And I would add the mai pen rai attitude of Thai's is not conjucive to civil war either

Sorry soutpeel but the mai bpen rai attitude is another urban myth just like "the land of smiles". Mai bpen rai doesn't fire grenades, the land of smiles doesn't kill innocent tourists.

[Heng]

There will be if they cancel the lottery drawing. Otherwise, sabai sabai...

[GM1955]

I'm not sure about civil war, but there could certainly be a backlash against certain groups of Thais who seem to hold the majority of the wealth.

1998 in Indonesia saw riots leading to attacks on Indonesian/Chinese business properties, rapes of Indo/chinese women and girls etc etc, these things do happen.

I'm somewhat amazed that so many Farangs on this website have called for the Army to shoot the redshirts, it would appear that The Nation Newspaper and their totally one sided view has flowed to ThaiVisa and the guys here read it and take it as factual.

It's ridiculous.

Terrorists eh ? Let me see, if I was a Redshirt terrorist and I wanted to do some real harm to this country, what would or could I do ?

Bomb in Pattaya, Chiang Mai, Samui, Phuket all timed to coincide with each other, kill 200 farangs and completely stop the tourist industry, the only thing that could top that would be the closure of beer bars and gogo's, the Farangs would certainly stay away then.

The government calling the Redshirts terrorists could really backfire on them.

I doubt a full blown civil war will take place, well I hope not, but there could certainly be some backlash against the richer Thai people if there is a massacre of the redshirts in Bkk.

And for all the Farangs that have been calling for the reds to be shot, calling them animals, calling them stupid etc etc etc, just be careful, I know you're anonymous on here, but think about all the other Farangs in Thailand, just stay out of it and cease with the hatred and hopes for a violent end.

If I was a Thai Redshirt and I read some of the threads on ThaiVisa, I'd be well pizzed of with Farangs.

I know it's not all Farangs, but all Farangs could be tarred with the same brush, in the same way that all Thai people are catagorized and departmentalized by Farangs on Forums, Thai people could put all Farangs in the same basket, really, there should be a lot less hate posting on this forum.

Just a thought.

Peace to all.

Edited April 23, 2010 by GM1955

[fletchsmile]

This time has the potential to be different. Only time will tell.

The term pandoras box is much over used. This time I fear it is not and I see problems that will never go back in the box, and which finally must at least be faced.

We have moved far beyond how this started weeks ago. Unlike previous rifts throughout Thailand's history, this time the glass has been shattered and there are many more than two large pieces to simply put back together in a shape not dissimilar to the past.

This rage has many dimensions: Aphisit vs Thaksin, democrat coalition vs nationalist party, elite groups against each other, rich vs poor, red vs yellow vs multi shirts, combined with those who support he who shall not be named here and those against he who should not be named here... Even then, these are just the current day manifestations of much older issues and divisions.

It is irony that because there are so many shattered pieces, that civil war may be averted. There are more than two forces here. There are many more paths.

Many Thai friends I've heard voice similar thoughts that civil war is possible recently. That I haven't heard in many years. We must go back two decades and more for something this serious. Even then it was two forces which were finally humbled and brought together by a strong ruler - the one who shall not be named.

This time he who shall not be named is frail. This time he is part of the reason for confrontation and a dimension to the problem, not the solution.

It was also foretold long ago that the 9th would be the last of his lineage to rule.

A wise man would have to go back many centuries in Thailand to see a future that was and is so unclear...

Edited April 23, 2010 by fletchsmile

[syd barrett]

This thread should be closed.

The OP has had his fun.

It is just misleading for those who read the thread title.

[gregb]

A civil war requires a few things, but the most important of those is a critical mass of people willing to take up arms and fight for a cause.

I just got back from a trip to Issan. Yes, I went right into the heart of the belly of the red beast....a place where even paved roads have never been seen for kilometers in any direction. Everyone around me was a "red". But guess what? Not one of them would actually be interested in armed conflict. They support the red cause, sure enough. But they are simply parroting what they are being told. There is no clear conviction. They can't explain the disillusionment. At least, not enough to justify killing another man over, unless of course they are embroiled in the middle of a fight already through no action of their own. Then they'll join in and help the clan.

Oh, it could grow into civil war if this conflict lasts for a few more years and someone starts killing their relatives. Then the reasons might get lost and only the bitterness will remain. That can certainly create conditions for civil war. But right now, the fighting is being done by Thaksin's paid mercenaries. That is all. Thailand is a long way from civil war. This is a war funded by a megalomaniac billionaire with an agenda.

Sure, the rural people feel oppressed. Who doesn't? I know people have taken advantage of me. I am oppressed too. We all are. If someone came along and told me he was going to fight for my rights (and I didn't know any better) I might believe him too. Heck, as farangs, our opinion doesn't even count, and we pay all the taxes! The rural Thais already have it better than us. This support for the red cause is very, very different from the truly oppressed, nearly universal disenchantment and feeling of estrangement it takes for civil war. They don't want to kill people. They just want what those people on television have, even if it is only a sad parody of it.

Cut off the head of the red machine, cut off the funding for the mercenaries, and there will be no civil war. The people don't want it. They want free handouts. If the pooyai bahn told them free handouts were coming from the Democrats and the Democrats cared about them but they had to wear aqua marine and dance the funky chicken? Well, guess what would happen?

Urban fighting between elite forces and terrorists? Sure. Civil war? I sincerely doubt it. Not yet. Makes good headlines though. Much better than, fugitive ex billionaire previously known to have authorized the extra judicial killing of over 2500 people hires paid thugs to kill one more bringing his total to 2501+.

That's not nearly as catchy though. Never get international headlines with that one. Better say Thailand is on the brink of a civil war.

Edited April 23, 2010 by gregb

[eggomaniac]

You were in the middle of the red territory, then, not the front lines. Of course there was no skirmishes. If you had donned a yellow shirt and shouted down with Thaksin, you would have 'felt' like you were in a 'battle' after all, albeit a short one.

Wars are determined by 'territory' as much as by casualties. The Reds hold the Northern provinces, your report is just more eye witness proof of.

A civil war requires a few things, but the most important of those is a critical mass of people willing to take up arms and fight for a cause. << There is no need to fight for what you already have, the North.

You did hear about the fully equipped military train that was commandeered, along with the detention of 100's of Thai soldiers? No bloodshed, no arrests: it occurred in a Red stronghold!

I am NOT a red supporter. That is why, months ago, I was warning about the size, strength and resolve of the 'movement'. The same ones who laughed at the 'dire predictions' are now saying they knew it all along.

I tried to suggest ways to UNplug Thaksin's influence and dismantle the red resolve, but nobody would listen to The Joseph Solution and The Joseph Plan.

It's the reds infringing on yellow territory, there is no possible way military 'might' would retake the red squares. They are conceded. There will be no incursion into red territory, only pushing by the reds. They are establishing the front lines, the demarctaion points.

There is a political and diplomatic way to get the reds and yellows to work together for Thailand, instead of fighting for their millionaire and billionaire, corrupt leaders on both sides.

Next 100 years? look at the last 80!

.

A civil war requires a few things, but the most important of those is a critical mass of people willing to take up arms and fight for a cause.

I just got back from a trip to Issan. Yes, I went right into the heart of the belly of the red beast....a place where even paved roads have never been seen for kilometers in any direction. Everyone around me was a "red". But guess what? Not one of them would actually be interested in armed conflict. They support the red cause, sure enough. But they are simply parroting what they are being told. There is no clear conviction. They can't explain the disillusionment. At least, not enough to justify killing another man over, unless of course they are embroiled in the middle of a fight already through no action of their own. Then they'll join in and help the clan.

Oh, it could grow into civil war if this conflict lasts for a few more years and someone starts killing their relatives. Then the reasons might get lost and only the bitterness will remain. That can certainly create conditions for civil war. But right now, the fighting is being done by Thaksin's paid mercenaries. That is all. Thailand is a long way from civil war. This is a war funded by a megalomaniac billionaire with an agenda.

Sure, the rural people feel oppressed. Who doesn't? I know people have taken advantage of me. I am oppressed too. We all are. If someone came along and told me he was going to fight for my rights (and I didn't know any better) I might believe him too. Heck, as farangs, our opinion doesn't even count, and we pay all the taxes! The rural Thais already have it better than us. This support for the red cause is very, very different from the truly oppressed, nearly universal disenchantment and feeling of estrangement it takes for civil war. They don't want to kill people. They just want what those people on television have, even if it is only a sad parody of it.

Cut off the head of the red machine, cut off the funding for the mercenaries, and there will be no civil war. The people don't want it. They want free handouts. If the pooyai bahn told them free handouts were coming from the Democrats and the Democrats cared about them but they had to wear aqua marine and dance the funky chicken? Well, guess what would happen?

Urban fighting between elite forces and terrorists? Sure. Civil war? I sincerely doubt it. Not yet. Makes good headlines though. Much better than, fugitive ex billionaire previously known to have authorized the extra judicial killing of over 2500 people hires paid thugs to kill one more bringing his total to 2501+.

That's not nearly as catchy though. Never get international headlines with that one. Better say Thailand is on the brink of a civil war.

[churchill]

From today's telegraph

Thailand is close to civil war as its British-born PM rejects deal with angry Red Shirts

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/...Red-Shirts.html

[apetley]

From today's telegraph

Thailand is close to civil war as its British-born PM rejects deal with angry Red Shirts

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/...Red-Shirts.html

Quote from the article

'But Abhisit Vejjajiva was cowering behind razor wire in a military barracks in suburban Bangkok as his capital, turned into a smoking battlefield by mobs in red shirts, braced itself for an expected bloody crackdown.'

Thought I was reading the Daily Wail or Sun after reading that tripe.