Thailand Could Deteriorate Into Undeclared Civil War

[AGareth2]

This is a power strugle being played out with the people as pawns

[elkangorito]

If you are suggesting that this whole scenario is similar to a game of chess, I think having a look at the 'pieces' & their roles would be a good idea.

E.g. Pawn, Rook, Knight etc etc.

[blaze]

If you are suggesting that this whole scenario is similar to a game of chess, I think having a look at the 'pieces' & their roles would be a good idea.

E.g. Pawn, Rook, Knight etc etc.

Now I understand your somewhat sardonic attitude to all this- probably the most appropriate too.

[elkangorito]

If you are suggesting that this whole scenario is similar to a game of chess, I think having a look at the 'pieces' & their roles would be a good idea.

E.g. Pawn, Rook, Knight etc etc.

Now I understand your somewhat sardonic attitude to all this- probably the most appropriate too.

I do not intend to be sardonic, however, I am quite bored with the incessant rantings about this whole political drama.

As a diversion, I simply wish to voice my opinion in a more 'humorous' way.

[yoshiwara]

Brilliant - lets have a massacre of democracy demonstrators in central Bangkok that would likely spark a civil war - in order to ensure the '''''elite'''' children's school term begins on time.

They are not democracy demonstrators. They are criminals, insurrectionists, and terrorists.

And it isn't just the elite parents who will be demanding action from the government. Middle class and poor families love their children as well. In fact, much of Bangkok is demanding the same.

Utter Drivel

The vast majority of red shirts are ordinary people. There may be a small number of nasty undesirables amongst them ( amongst the other sides as well mind you ) but the idea of a massacre in order to allow a school term to start on time is just as repugnant if not more so than an invasion of a hospital.

It would appear that whatever colour shirt you might wear you show your true colours in your words.

Correction. They vast majority of red shirts were ordinary people. Then they chose to join a violent demonstration in which they murdered security forces and defied a state of emergency. Their organization has grown increasingly violent and is committing terrorist-like and/or violent acts on an almost daily basis. They are holding a large and important part of the capitol city of Thailand hostage. They have had every opportunity to leave the area. Anyone remaining is no longer an innocent, ordinary person. The ordinary people who are red shirt supporters have already left these demonstrations.

Please understand. In no way am I advocating going in and killing thousands. Negotiations must be the highest priority. But if these aren't successful then there will be no choice. The government cannot allow the capitol city to be taken hostage for much longer.

The leadership and control of the red shirts were and are remain under the strategic direction of Thaksin.

Nothing has changed.

[wasabi]

The Reds offer little to Thailand. No education or skills to help compete in the global economy. Excessively macho aggressive personalities. They may say they want democracy but even if it came it wouldn't help them. They are obsolete and will never have decent wages or positions of power. This is their swan song. Soon enough they will return back to their dried up rice fields to sit drinking Lao Khao and chewing on bettle nut. Of course agriculture is a vital industry but in much of the world this too is done by highly educated people with business management skills. The reds will be left behind if they like it or not. Thailand ought to take a few tanks and run over their puny barricades to introduce them to the 21st century and send them running scared. However the rest of Thailand may not be ready for the world either so maybe this will go on a while.

Edited May 1, 2010 by wasabi

[dobadoy]

"Thailand is spiralling further into political violence as protesters, counter-protesters, and security forces respond tit for tat against attacks and provocations," said Brad Adams, Asia director at Human Rights Watch.

Not sure where Brad Adams has got this from: Radio Thaksin?

Edited May 1, 2010 by dobadoy

[blaze]

If you are suggesting that this whole scenario is similar to a game of chess, I think having a look at the 'pieces' & their roles would be a good idea.

E.g. Pawn, Rook, Knight etc etc.

Now I understand your somewhat sardonic attitude to all this- probably the most appropriate too.

I do not intend to be sardonic, however, I am quite bored with the incessant rantings about this whole political drama.

As a diversion, I simply wish to voice my opinion in a more 'humorous' way.

Heavy. While us plebes are thumbing through our Marx- the smarter ones frantically flipping through Voltaire- and what we should be reading?--- sophocles-

etc etc.

Edited May 1, 2010 by blaze

[dobadoy]

I think it will be much less time than that. I think that will school starting in a couple of weeks there will be enormous pressure on the government to disperse the protesters.

No need. We all know the UDD leaders are men of honour - didn't they promise to turn themselves into the police on May 15th? Probably thinking about the poor schoolkids in advance.

Would anti-reds please note the reds concern for the sick - did they or did they not manage to get all the sick people in Chula hospitat relocated out of the conflict area?

Edited May 1, 2010 by dobadoy

[Rideau]

The Reds offer little to Thailand. No education or skills to help compete in the global economy. Excessively macho aggressive personalities. They may say they want democracy but even if it came it wouldn't help them. They are obsolete and will never have decent wages or positions of power. This is their swan song. Soon enough they will return back to their dried up rice fields to sit drinking Lao Khao and chewing on bettle nut. Of course agriculture is a vital industry but in much of the world this too is done by highly educated people with business management skills. The reds will be left behind if they like it or not. Thailand ought to take a few tanks and run over their puny barricades to introduce them to the 21st century and send them running scared. However the rest of Thailand may not be ready for the world either so maybe this will go on a while.

Right on.

Moreover, these international groups have no clues about what is behind "Red Democracy" facade. There are business interest groups that are Pro-Thaksin like the Jungrung..., the Maha... etc who are funding the riot from behind the curtain.

I am sure they have no clues about who the heck Nevin Chidchob, Chavalit Yongchaiyut are and why they are competing for power.

After all, it is all about business interests. Sooner or later the Red Shirts will have to go back to where they were without even knowing they were used.

[gregb]

Brilliant - lets have a massacre of democracy demonstrators in central Bangkok that would likely spark a civil war - in order to ensure the '''''elite'''' children's school term begins on time.

They are not democracy demonstrators. They are criminals, insurrectionists, and terrorists.

And it isn't just the elite parents who will be demanding action from the government. Middle class and poor families love their children as well. In fact, much of Bangkok is demanding the same.

Utter Drivel

The vast majority of red shirts are ordinary people. There may be a small number of nasty undesirables amongst them ( amongst the other sides as well mind you ) but the idea of a massacre in order to allow a school term to start on time is just as repugnant if not more so than an invasion of a hospital.

It would appear that whatever colour shirt you might wear you show your true colours in your words.

What is utter drivel is continuing to believe there are any innocent red terrorists. There are only terrorists who directly kill people, and terrorists who indirectly kill people by aiding abetting their more violent factions.

They all deserve to be punished. Every single last one of them. They need to leave one way or another. They can not continue committing hideous crimes against the Thai people. If they choose to leave in a body bag, that is their choice, not mine. The government has already offered them a bus ride. It is time for them to take it or face the consequences.

[brahmburgers]

THE NATION: Kwanchai: Hello 2 ever1 who loves justice. Tells PM, about Sarasin intersection, you don't need M16s, we'll talk with police.

Dear Kwanchai, please wash the blood from your hands before shaking anyone's hand. You say you'll talk with police (now that you feel a forceful clean-up is imminent) but did you talk with the person in Kon Kaen (with the different political leaning) before you and your thugs killed him? I would call you a two-headed snake, but that would be insulting to reptiles.

[elkangorito]

If you are suggesting that this whole scenario is similar to a game of chess, I think having a look at the 'pieces' & their roles would be a good idea.

E.g. Pawn, Rook, Knight etc etc.

Now I understand your somewhat sardonic attitude to all this- probably the most appropriate too.

I do not intend to be sardonic, however, I am quite bored with the incessant rantings about this whole political drama.

As a diversion, I simply wish to voice my opinion in a more 'humorous' way.

Heavy. While us plebes are thumbing through our Marx- the smarter ones frantically flipping through Voltaire- and what we should be reading?--- sophocles-

etc etc.

I don't read/or quote anybody. If I do, I make it obvious.

Nonetheless, 'thinkers' are hard to find on TV. Most of these folks become bored with the usual drivel, which is why I choose a diversion.

[Jerrytheyoung]

Hola! Hola! Hola!

Before declaring the Red shirts a band of murderers, terrorists... Cool down. They are people embarked in a spiralling of violence and the Government is far to be fully clean in this story. We are under stress of propaganda from both sides, and at the outcome, few months later, we will have some surprises about the actions done by both sides.. Please refrain to give so strong judgment in the middle of the crisis, we have only part of the information and we are under flow of propaganda.

1- Northern Population has something to say, something very deep coming from the bowels; so they will say it and even some are ready to put their life in balance: it is a very strong comitment, I will say an exceptional one.

2- When the violence starts, even usually very reasonable people may be geared in the mechanisms, even nearly a whole population may drift (Example Germans during WWII or Serbians recently). Basically people are like you and me, they are not murderers or terrorists but they are dragged in the stream.... they fight for their believings and the fight is becoming more and more violent, they forget the normalcy, the abnormal is becoming day after day the reference. How many people are able to resist? The first thing is to stay cool and relativise all those events, comparing with similar situations, trying to understand both parties and find the way to defuse not to fuel the situation. Overreaction drives to more violence which may become uncontrollable

3- Inside the Group, the moderate leaders are probably loosing grip which can be considerate as normal in such a crowd process.

4- For the "Va-en-guerre" people of this forum, (Those who want an immediate and strong military operations), just think about the consequences in Northern Thailand if hundred of people are killed: each family will have a strong reason to join the insurrection, and yes, then, we will be spiralling definitively in the real Civil war.

Please we have to remain "Civil", to stay cool and to think that if we were in their position maybe we will not react differently.

To keep his own criticism is already very difficult for highly educated people.

The solution is through the dialog. Strong actions will not solve the problem, just may postpone it and in such a case, with a Damocles sword over Thailand, investors will flee to better stable skies: it will be the end of the good fortune.....

Edited May 1, 2010 by Jerrytheyoung

[blaze]

Brilliant - lets have a massacre of democracy demonstrators in central Bangkok that would likely spark a civil war - in order to ensure the '''''elite'''' children's school term begins on time.

They are not democracy demonstrators. They are criminals, insurrectionists, and terrorists.

And it isn't just the elite parents who will be demanding action from the government. Middle class and poor families love their children as well. In fact, much of Bangkok is demanding the same.

Utter Drivel

The vast majority of red shirts are ordinary people. There may be a small number of nasty undesirables amongst them ( amongst the other sides as well mind you ) but the idea of a massacre in order to allow a school term to start on time is just as repugnant if not more so than an invasion of a hospital.

It would appear that whatever colour shirt you might wear you show your true colours in your words.

What is utter drivel is continuing to believe there are any innocent red terrorists. There are only terrorists who directly kill people, and terrorists who indirectly kill people by aiding abetting their more violent factions.

They all deserve to be punished. Every single last one of them. They need to leave one way or another. They can not continue committing hideous crimes against the Thai people. If they choose to leave in a body bag, that is their choice, not mine. The government has already offered them a bus ride. It is time for them to take it or face the consequences.

'hidious crimes'? 26 people killed- 20 of them were protesters- let's get a bit of perspective here- it's not hideous- but it could become hideous- (how many died in Sri Lanka? the ex-Yugoslavia?- Colombia? --- what's that- 'super-hideous'?) And retaliation will very likely mean escalation up-country.

But you're right- everyone still in the 'encampment' is engaging in criminal actions. But you only have to walk past the medical centers to realize that they know the penalty for that. They may not be prepared to pay the price- or they may be. And if they are? Welcome to the new Yala.

[whybother]

Hola! Hola! Hola!

Before declaring the Red shirts a band of murderers, terrorists... Cool down. They are people embarked in a spiralling of violence and the Government is far to be fully clean in this story. We are under stress of propaganda from both sides, and at the outcome, few months later, we will have some surprises about the actions done by both sides.. Please refrain to give so strong judgment in the middle of the crisis, we have only part of the information and we are under flow of propaganda.

1- Northern Population has something to say, something very deep coming from the bowels; so they will say it and even some are ready to put their life in balance: it is a very strong comitment, I will say an exceptional one.

2- When the violence starts, even usually very reasonable people may be geared in the mechanisms, even nearly a whole population may drift (Example Germans during WWII or Serbians recently). Basically people are like you and me, they are not murderers or terrorists but they are dragged in the stream.... they fight for their believings and the fight is becoming more and more violent, they forget the normalcy, the abnormal is becoming day after day the reference. How many people are able to resist? The first thing is to stay cool and relativise all those events, comparing with similar situations, trying to understand both parties and find the way to defuse not to fuel the situation. Overreaction drives to more violence which may become uncontrollable

3- Inside the Group, the moderate leaders are probably loosing grip which can be considerate as normal in such a crowd process.

4- For the "Va-en-guerre" people of this forum, (Those who want an immediate and strong military operations), just think about the consequences in Northern Thailand if hundred of people are killed: each family will have a strong reason to join the insurrection, and yes, then, we will be spiralling definitively in the real Civil war.

Please we have to remain "Civil", to stay cool and to think that if we were in their position maybe we will not react differently.

To keep his own criticism is already very difficult for highly educated people.

The solution is through the dialog. Strong actions will not solve the problem, just may postpone it and in such a case, with a Damocles sword over Thailand, investors will flee to better stable skies: it will be the end of the good fortune.....

Don't you think they have had enough time to say what they have to say?

Everyone knows what they have to say. What else do they have to say?

[way2muchcoffee]

Hola! Hola! Hola!

Before declaring the Red shirts a band of murderers, terrorists... Cool down. They are people embarked in a spiralling of violence and the Government is far to be fully clean in this story. We are under stress of propaganda from both sides, and at the outcome, few months later, we will have some surprises about the actions done by both sides.. Please refrain to give so strong judgment in the middle of the crisis, we have only part of the information and we are under flow of propaganda.

1- Northern Population has something to say, something very deep coming from the bowels; so they will say it and even some are ready to put their life in balance: it is a very strong comitment, I will say an exceptional one.

2- When the violence starts, even usually very reasonable people may be geared in the mechanisms, even nearly a whole population may drift (Example Germans during WWII or Serbians recently). Basically people are like you and me, they are not murderers or terrorists but they are dragged in the stream.... they fight for their believings and the fight is becoming more and more violent, they forget the normalcy, the abnormal is becoming day after day the reference. How many people are able to resist? The first thing is to stay cool and relativise all those events, comparing with similar situations, trying to understand both parties and find the way to defuse not to fuel the situation. Overreaction drives to more violence which may become uncontrollable

3- Inside the Group, the moderate leaders are probably loosing grip which can be considerate as normal in such a crowd process.

4- For the "Va-en-guerre" people of this forum, (Those who want an immediate and strong military operations), just think about the consequences in Northern Thailand if hundred of people are killed: each family will have a strong reason to join the insurrection, and yes, then, we will be spiralling definitively in the real Civil war.

Please we have to remain "Civil", to stay cool and to think that if we were in their position maybe we will not react differently.

To keep his own criticism is already very difficult for highly educated people.

The solution is through the dialog. Strong actions will not solve the problem, just may postpone it and in such a case, with a Damocles sword over Thailand, investors will flee to better stable skies: it will be the end of the good fortune.....

I think this is quite possibly the best post you have ever made Jerry. It is very easy to forget one's values in the heat of anger, fear, hostility, and violence. Thank you for pointing this out.

Edited May 1, 2010 by way2muchcoffee

[Jerrytheyoung]

The Reds offer little to Thailand. No education or skills to help compete in the global economy. Excessively macho aggressive personalities. They may say they want democracy but even if it came it wouldn't help them. They are obsolete and will never have decent wages or positions of power. This is their swan song. Soon enough they will return back to their dried up rice fields to sit drinking Lao Khao and chewing on bettle nut. Of course agriculture is a vital industry but in much of the world this too is done by highly educated people with business management skills. The reds will be left behind if they like it or not. Thailand ought to take a few tanks and run over their puny barricades to introduce them to the 21st century and send them running scared. However the rest of Thailand may not be ready for the world either so maybe this will go on a while.

Right on.

Moreover, these international groups have no clues about what is behind "Red Democracy" facade. There are business interest groups that are Pro-Thaksin like the Jungrung..., the Maha... etc who are funding the riot from behind the curtain.

I am sure they have no clues about who the heck Nevin Chidchob, Chavalit Yongchaiyut are and why they are competing for power.

After all, it is all about business interests. Sooner or later the Red Shirts will have to go back to where they were without even knowing they were used.

You are just forgetting that a NATION represents not only economical interests but also a set of values, historical, cultural.. A NATION means also SOLIDARITY between citizens.

European NATIONS, USA, have helped their farmers to modernise their activity, are doing what is necessary to provide jobs if possible for everybody, are planning the conversion of the Countries and the development of towns: you find all that normal, but you forget that it may have happen because somewhere some people have struggled for that.

We have some Social funds for health, in case of unemployment....maybe you have benefited one day. how it has been created???

Thailand is lagging socially compared to our Countries: you should understand that what you find normal in your Farang Country Northern Population is fighting for getting part of it. I agree that like in every Historical events, some other vested interests try to utilise this Population. But today even a guy like Sondhi admits that something has to be done for the Northern Thailand. Obviously, it is a first success, and not yet everybody is understanding so they have to continue for delivering their message

Edited May 1, 2010 by Jerrytheyoung

[Jerrytheyoung]

Deleted double posting (Internet issue)

Edited May 1, 2010 by Jerrytheyoung

[asiawatcher]

If the people that are charged with up-holding the law etc did their job as they are supposed to, there wouldn't be any need for anyone to do anything other than their day-to-day job.

If they are not taking orders why have they not been fired? Civil war may be the only way to dispose of sedition.

[kraxlhuber]

International observers, maybe from other ASEAN nations could calm tensions and bring all sides to the negotiating table, but will the current powers that be accept this?

Only a few days ago, FM Kasit ruled out 'foreign involvement' in this crisis and Deputy PM Suthep refused an offer of UN assistance in 'The South' last year.

It was made known, a long time ago,that ASEAN has a policy of "not interferring in other members internal affairs".How convenient.Singapore is making his opposition bankrupt in order to disable them for election campaign's,the Phillipines just shoots them,in Malaisia they land in jail etc.etc.

Beside Asia is for Asian's.

That would be like to say,I watch ,if you kill each other.

International observers,a joke.

We have enough girls here to be "embedded with troops".

Maybe the UN will send observer troops, and at the first shot fired,sendt home as elsewhere in the world.

Another few attacks on US property,Mc Donald's, KFC, a odd bank and the place will swarm with SEAL,SWAT,CIA,and other teams,and mop-up the place.

[elkangorito]

Another few attacks on US property,Mc Donald's, KFC, a odd bank and the place will swarm with SEAL,SWAT,CIA,and other teams,and mop-up the place.

I don't think so!!! Does the word 'sovereign' mean anything to you?

[321niti123]

The International Crisis Group (ICG) said the country must consider mediation help from other nations to defuse the political crisis and avoid a slide into further violence.

Highly unlikely this will happen as Thai 'pride' will be a major barrier to this commonsense idea.

I dont think any other country would waste the time or money to help thailand, especially when they're still recovering from an economical crisis

[elcent]

a handy link to major international news http://schema-root.org/region/asia/southeast_asia/thailand/ you'll find something different to what you're fed here.

[elkangorito]

^^I think 'economy' is exactly the reason why some people would be very concerned about the Thai debacle.

Edited May 1, 2010 by elkangorito

[danc]

If the people that are charged with up-holding the law etc did their job as they are supposed to, there wouldn't be any need for anyone to do anything other than their day-to-day job.

If they are not taking orders why have they not been fired? Civil war may be the only way to dispose of sedition.

A persistent point, rumour, call it what you will, that cannot be shaken off is that people in the higher echelons are not taking action due a "rift" within their own camp. It is not just the Reds that squabble! Sources which cannot be used here but I got via Thanong's blog at the Nation talk of Defence Minister Prawit Wongsuwont's outburst at the Defence Council meeting two days ago, his criticism of his own prime minister's Abhisit Vejjajiva's reluctance to find a political solution whilst simultaneously urging others to use the military option - those others having made public their opposition to the use of force (i.e. Prawit Wongsuwon and Anupong Paojinda).

Thanong's blog - see comment three beneath

Furthur to this, The Acting Police Chief Pateep Tanprsert's use of language in how he gives an answer to a direct question of would he follow the order if told to use force, is a brilliant piece of evasion ``I cannot say until there is an actual order,''. Hardly a ringing endorsement is it?

All is perhaps not quite so rosy and it does not fill one with confidence that the Reds go away and with them, so goes the problem..so maybe yes sides could be taken still further which cause the society to further divide?

Edited May 1, 2010 by danc

[JohnLeech]

interesting article in the washingtonpost. Can't give you the link because it's sensitive.

Pretty good article though they got a few facts wrong. 7/10. Thanks

Agreed - I would have said "realistic" rather than "sensitive" as it seems to point the finger at all the right people (pretty well everyone!).

[coe]

There has been an undeclared civil war since the coup in 2006. This article is 4 years too late.

Very sad situation here in Thailand.

And this is just another "flare-up" of this insidious conflict that finds its roots in selfishness, and perhaps a democratic system that is too young and growing up too fast. Like an adolescent quickly outgrowing his/her clothes... Thailand just cannot handle its new found wealth. They are exploiting all the bad habits of capitalism.

sadly true.

thailand is like a child turn adult without a puberty stage.

suddenly all thai homocivicus turn to homopoliticus.

[dobadoy]

interesting article in the washingtonpost. Can't give you the link because it's sensitive.

Pretty good article though they got a few facts wrong. 7/10. Thanks

Agreed - I would have said "realistic" rather than "sensitive" as it seems to point the finger at all the right people (pretty well everyone!).

It makes some good points but still perpetuates the myth that this is a conflict of rich v poor. If so, where are the poor from all the provinces outside of Isaan? Rajaprasong would have burst at the seems if this was anything more than a small percentage of people from a few provinces in Issan being organised by local mafia.

There are 76 provinces in Thailand, more than enough to force the government to fold if the poor from all of them had made a show.

[elcent]

interesting article in the washingtonpost. Can't give you the link because it's sensitive.

Pretty good article though they got a few facts wrong. 7/10. Thanks

Agreed - I would have said "realistic" rather than "sensitive" as it seems to point the finger at all the right people (pretty well everyone!).

It makes some good points but still perpetuates the myth that this is a conflict of rich v poor. If so, where are the poor from all the provinces outside of Isaan? Rajaprasong would have burst at the seems if this was anything more than a small percentage of people from a few provinces in Issan being organised by local mafia.

There are 76 provinces in Thailand, more than enough to force the government to fold if the poor from all of them had made a show.

exactly, the poor are just the hanger to make it appear like it is so. In fact it's a nasty buffalo fight with no end in sight unless the gov acts.