HansBlinkers Posted August 27, 2010 Share Posted August 27, 2010 Do you think it will get better before the end of the year? I am planing on retuning in November but now I'm seriously thinking about staying put now. It's depressing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaoPo Posted August 27, 2010 Share Posted August 27, 2010 Baht 39.84 to 1 Euro now. A year ago it was around Baht 50 to the Euro; 20 % off now. Very depressing indeed and it will cost Thailand great numbers of tourists. LaoPo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L&J Posted August 28, 2010 Share Posted August 28, 2010 The appreciation of the Thai baht against the western currencies is not going to be reversed-IMHO- as the western economies aren't going to work themselves out of the Great Recession for many years. The policy of deficit spending to stimulate their economies will only give strength to the baht. What that means for Thailand isn't necessarily positive as it depends on exports which will only get more and more expensive in the west and there will fewer investment projects coming from the west. Though those factors will be mitigated by increases coming from China and Japan who may eventually end up owning Thailand. Tourism is going to be hurt further which will mostly impact the poor people who work in that sector. Forget Thai politics as nothing that happens here seems to have any effect on the baht. Possibly the only positive for us is that fuel prices should not go up as the peg against the USD is positive for the baht. Everything however will hit the fan someday when the Chinese yuan becomes an alternative international standard. In twenty years this will be a very different world. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gotlost Posted August 28, 2010 Share Posted August 28, 2010 30.93 USD 47.92 GBP 39.26 EUR:angry: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbk Posted August 28, 2010 Share Posted August 28, 2010 moving to the Banking/Finance forum as it is not Chiang Mai related Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elektrified Posted August 28, 2010 Share Posted August 28, 2010 The appreciation of the Thai baht against the western currencies is not going to be reversed-IMHO- as the western economies aren't going to work themselves out of the Great Recession for many years. The policy of deficit spending to stimulate their economies will only give strength to the baht. What that means for Thailand isn't necessarily positive as it depends on exports which will only get more and more expensive in the west and there will fewer investment projects coming from the west. Though those factors will be mitigated by increases coming from China and Japan who may eventually end up owning Thailand. Tourism is going to be hurt further which will mostly impact the poor people who work in that sector. Forget Thai politics as nothing that happens here seems to have any effect on the baht. Possibly the only positive for us is that fuel prices should not go up as the peg against the USD is positive for the baht. Everything however will hit the fan someday when the Chinese yuan becomes an alternative international standard. In twenty years this will be a very different world. I agree with this post in its entirety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crgram Posted August 28, 2010 Share Posted August 28, 2010 The appreciation of the Thai baht against the western currencies is not going to be reversed-IMHO- as the western economies aren't going to work themselves out of the Great Recession for many years. The policy of deficit spending to stimulate their economies will only give strength to the baht. What that means for Thailand isn't necessarily positive as it depends on exports which will only get more and more expensive in the west and there will fewer investment projects coming from the west. Though those factors will be mitigated by increases coming from China and Japan who may eventually end up owning Thailand. Tourism is going to be hurt further which will mostly impact the poor people who work in that sector. Forget Thai politics as nothing that happens here seems to have any effect on the baht. Possibly the only positive for us is that fuel prices should not go up as the peg against the USD is positive for the baht. Everything however will hit the fan someday when the Chinese yuan becomes an alternative international standard. In twenty years this will be a very different world. I agree for the most part as well. Not to quibble though, but the west is not in recession, great or otherwise. The economies are just growing so slowly it will take quite some time to work out the whole created in 2007/8. The massive deficit spending is certainly playing a big part in the exchange rate. The odd thing to me is the JPY strength, Japans economy is as bad as Europe or the US. Bound to be killing their exports.... cr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lazygourmet Posted August 28, 2010 Share Posted August 28, 2010 (edited) Euro is just back to its normal rate when it went out in 2002. 2001-12-31 December 31, Monday 39.378 THB 2002-01-02 January 02, Wednesday 39.9169 THB 2002-01-03 January 03, Thursday 39.6547 THB 2002-01-04 January 04, Friday 39.2818 THB Edited August 28, 2010 by lazygourmet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chops Posted August 28, 2010 Share Posted August 28, 2010 that is really nothing. ultimately, the euro is an overvalued currency vs the thai baht. it should be close to what the dollar is. ~30ish. now, you think you feel pain? it could be a lot worse. i have gotten by with 31 baht to my US dollars for a long time. i survived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimGant Posted August 30, 2010 Share Posted August 30, 2010 i have gotten by with 31 baht to my US dollars for a long time. i survived. It wasn't that long ago the baht was 32.65 to the dollar (6/7/10). How'd you manage to eke out only 31? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gotlost Posted August 30, 2010 Share Posted August 30, 2010 Todays cry. 30.90 USD 47.89 GBP 39.32 EUR Bangkok Bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lannarebirth Posted August 30, 2010 Share Posted August 30, 2010 Be grateful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flying Posted August 30, 2010 Share Posted August 30, 2010 (edited) Todays cry. 30.90 USD 47.89 GBP 39.32 EUR Bangkok Bank. I noticed Thai Visa now has the amounts in the upper right corner of the forum. But I wonder where it is linked to? It is lower than any I have seen... BKB, SCB etc. Edited August 30, 2010 by flying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted August 30, 2010 Share Posted August 30, 2010 I agree for the most part as well. Not to quibble though, but the west is not in recession, great or otherwise. The economies are just growing so slowly it will take quite some time to work out the whole created in 2007/8. The massive deficit spending is certainly playing a big part in the exchange rate. The odd thing to me is the JPY strength, Japans economy is as bad as Europe or the US. Bound to be killing their exports... reason = risk aversion and therefore carry trades JP¥ vs. a bunch of HY currencies unwinding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midas Posted August 31, 2010 Share Posted August 31, 2010 I agree for the most part as well. Not to quibble though, but the west is not in recession, great or otherwise. The economies are just growing so slowly it will take quite some time to work out the whole created in 2007/8. The massive deficit spending is certainly playing a big part in the exchange rate. The odd thing to me is the JPY strength, Japans economy is as bad as Europe or the US. Bound to be killing their exports... reason = risk aversion and therefore carry trades JP¥ vs. a bunch of HY currencies unwinding. And so why won't the BoJ intervene with some meaningful measures unlike the red herring from yesterday ? Look at the Nikkei today ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gotlost Posted August 31, 2010 Share Posted August 31, 2010 Todays shyt. 30.91 usd 47.70 gbp 39.05 eur:annoyed: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beppi Posted August 31, 2010 Share Posted August 31, 2010 > Do you think it will get better before the end of the year? > I am planing on retuning in November but now I'm seriously thinking about staying put now. It's depressing What's depressing about that? I am visiting Europe also in November and prefer to pay less for what I spend there. Same when I transfer my savings there. The Euro should sink to THB30 or less! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sonicdragon Posted August 31, 2010 Share Posted August 31, 2010 (edited) And so why won't the BoJ intervene with some meaningful measures unlike the red herring from yesterday ? Look at the Nikkei today ! One reason is that the BOJ does not have the legal authority to do so. Exchange rate policy falls under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Finance, and so intervention requires the collaboration of both agencies, which have historically been quite adversarial/territorial. In essence the situation would have to become extraordinarily dire before they act. That point may well be approaching, but history teaches us that they won't do it when everyone is expecting it. Edited August 31, 2010 by sonicdragon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midas Posted August 31, 2010 Share Posted August 31, 2010 And so why won't the BoJ intervene with some meaningful measures unlike the red herring from yesterday ? Look at the Nikkei today ! One reason is that the BOJ does not have the legal authority to do so. Exchange rate policy falls under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Finance, and so intervention requires the collaboration of both agencies, which have historically been quite adversarial/territorial. In essence the situation would have to become extraordinarily dire before they act. That point may well be approaching, but history teaches us that they won't do it when everyone is expecting it. Thanks for that......i didnt know this before. Amazing how the strengthening Yen is causing the Nikkei to dive which i can understand and yet here in LOS as the baht gets even stronger the SET climbs even more ? And I just seem to bumping into so many Thai's who complain there aren't enough tourists to support their business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sonicdragon Posted August 31, 2010 Share Posted August 31, 2010 Remember "Mr Yen" - the man who was probably the most influential single person on Japanese exchange rate policy in recent history ? Eisuke Sakakibara - he was an official of the MoF, not the BoJ. I suspect that the BoJ are keen on weakening the Yen, since it could be a very effective tool for further monetary easing. However the MoF beurocrats and politicians may be fearful of failure or unintended consequences. Never underestimate how conservative Japanese politicians can be (even the so-called liberals), especially in the face of being "told what to do" by the upstarts at the BoJ with PhDs from Harvard etc. As for the THB/SET, it's not something I follow very much. The economy may be export dependent, but the current account is in surplus. This should naturally put upward pressure on the THB. Meanwhile, there are worries about the USD and Euro - so it wouldn't surprise me to find some hot money looking for escape and some of that could flow into stocks in Thailand. The *really* amazing thing about the Nikkei is that it was at 39,000 in 1989 ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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