Don't Panic Over Claims Bangkok Might Be Under Seawater In 20 Years: Lecturers

[webfact]

Chula lecturers put record straight with latest forecasts

By Janjira Pongrai

The Nation

Following a report that Bangkok might be under seawater in 20 years' time and suggestions that the capital should be moved to the Northeast, Chulalongkorn University lecturers yesterday countered with advice that the public should not panic over such claims.

They said it would take 100 years for the coast near Bangkok to erode inland by six to eight kilometres, and there was no reason for panic over the slim chance of a tsunami in the Gulf of Thailand.

Faculty of Science geology lecturer Thanawat Jarupongsakul said that claims of ice melting and causing sea levels to rise by six or seven metres, flooding Bangkok and the central provinces within 20 years, were not backed by scientific fact and research.

The claims have created panic among members of the public, with some people selling "at-risk" properties to buy new plots in the Northeast.

He said that predictions of a tsunami in the Andaman Sea on December 30 had also frightened villagers who were affected by the 2004 tsunami. Therefore, Chulalongkorn University experts had decided to give an accurate perspective of the situation.

Regarding the submerging of Bangkok, he said a 1:4,000-scale map showing predictions of coastal erosion along the 120-km shoreline of the Gulf of Thailand in Samut Prakan, Samut Sakhon, Samut Songkhram, Chachoengsao and Bangkok would be complete mid-way through next year, following intensive studies.

Based on the rate of subsidence in various areas and expected sea-level rise - for example, Chao Phya riverside subsidence of 20.5mm per year and a sea-level rise of 18mm - the map will show that, in 20 years, the shoreline will have moved about 1.3km inland area, while in 50 years it will have moved 2.3km to 2.5km inland. In another 100 years, 6km to 8km will have been taken by the sea, but the shoreline will not have reached either inner Bangkok or Chainat, as claimed, he said.

Another geology lecturer, Kruawan Jankaew, said that more than 90 per cent of tsunamis had occurred around the edges of the Earth's crustal plates following earthquakes measuring 8 to 8.5 on the Richter scale. Following the 2004 tsunami, no quakes have exceeded 7.9 on the Richter scale, she said.

However, if a quake measuring 9 on the Richter scale occurred in the Andaman Sea, Phuket would get waves only 5mm to 10mm high.

The nearest area to the Gulf of Thailand where two crustal plates are colliding is in the Philippines - which is very distant - and the waters of the gulf are 80 to 100m deep, insufficient to create large and devastating waves, she said. If a major quake hit the area near the Philippines a tsunami would take at least 14 to 17 hours to hit Thailand.

She said people should not be panicked and should listen to the National Disaster Warning Centre.

-- The Nation 2010-12-21

[powderpuff]

Almost instantly the climate change hoax morphs into discussion of Tsunami.

Their argument is so weak.

"bangkok MIGHT be underwater" yeah & I might win the lottery.

Global alarmists.

Come back when you have emperical evidence.

It''s all scare mongering till then.

[SweeneyAgonistes]

It's pretty obvious that Bangkok's long-term future is somewhere between dire and non-existent but at the same time, it's not going to disappear beneath the waves by lunchtime next Thursday.

[RickBradford]

Based on the rate of subsidence in various areas and expected sea-level rise - for example, Chao Phya riverside subsidence of 20.5mm per year and a sea-level rise of 18mm

I really wish these people would take the trouble to get their data right before coming to their conclusions.

The sea-level rise has been estimated at around 1.5 millimeters, not 18mm per year. If you work with data that has been exaggerated by a factor of 10, you are bound to get absurd results.

They would do better to announce their results and hide the underlying data, as is done by British climate scientists, thus making criticism impossible.

[Thai at Heart]

20 years might be a little quick, but undoubtedly, Bangkok faces big problems simply because of the uncontrolled construction downtown and in the suburbs which will continue to block natural drainage. I wonder if their assumptions of subsidence and land erosion include the fact that in 20 years time Bangkok will probably have 25 million inhabitants and built area will take up 50% more than it does today.

However this quote is a beauty.

If a major quake hit the area near the Philippines a tsunami would take at least 14 to 17 hours to hit Thailand.

That is alright then. The authorities can't even manage the traffic system as it is today. How the hell would they attempt to move this many people in 14 days, let along 14 hours.

[Neonben]

No it's all true, now hurry up and start selling property for a realistic price.

[nullx8]

honestly, as i see the water under Memorial Bridge 5 years ago .. and compare to now .. it does look to me as much less than 20 Years until the water can't hold back anymore.

additionaly ... everyone with a GPS Device in the car .. will know ... there are ALOT of places in bangkok where the height is negative in respect to sea level.

example: parts of Ratchadapisek Road by -9 Meters

if the water gets over the fence once, there will be a holding back by the goverment ? i dont think so ...

as there is either no manpower or technology avaiable to pump millions of Liters back out of the town.

Edited December 21, 2010 by nullx8

[trogers]

as there is either no manpower or technology avaiable to pump millions of Liters back out of the town.

House by the pond 2?

[whybother]

honestly, as i see the water under Memorial Bridge 5 years ago .. and compare to now .. it does look to me as much less than 20 Years until the water can't hold back anymore.

additionaly ... everyone with a GPS Device in the car .. will know ... there are ALOT of places in bangkok where the height is negative in respect to sea level.

example: parts of Ratchadapisek Road by -9 Meters

if the water gets over the fence once, there will be a holding back by the goverment ? i dont think so ...

as there is either no manpower or technology avaiable to pump millions of Liters back out of the town.

I think you need a new GPS device.

[Soutpeel]

If the esteemed geology lectuer wishes to start stating facts, she would do well to get the water depths in the gulf of Thailand correct, nowhere in the gulf is 100m deep, and very few locations at 80m, typically 65-75m is the norm.

[JackSterling]

I hope not...cuz all who can escape it will come to spoil CM

[anterian]

Naturally they have ignored the fact ,that Bangkok and the surrounds are on a major esturine flood plain, that the new airport has blocked much natural drainage, that excessive water extraction is causing subsidence, that increasing amounts of suburban paddy fields are being concreted over reducing drainage and increasing run off.

Ignore rising sea level, ignore tsunami, Bangkok is doomed anyway, 20 years seems a reasonable estimate.

[nullx8]

I think you need a new GPS device.

Areal Maps of BMA show the same data ... looks accurate to me.

[Naam]

Naturally they have ignored the fact ,that Bangkok and the surrounds are on a major esturine flood plain, that the new airport has blocked much natural drainage, that excessive water extraction is causing subsidence, that increasing amounts of suburban paddy fields are being concreted over reducing drainage and increasing run off.

Ignore rising sea level, ignore tsunami, Bangkok is doomed anyway, 20 years seems a reasonable estimate.

the end is near! BKK sinners repent or move to Pattaya

[meelousee]

Under water, well yes but that is pretty far into the future at the normal given rate that Bangkok is sinking only 2mm per year.

So the raising seas which are a fact it would take some 125 years or so. Tsunami any time any place any height nobody knows, there is no science that can predict one way or the other.

So underwater in 50? Tsunami devastation? How about this, Bangkok chokes to death on toxic emissions from factories, cars, deforestation burning(wind currents from Malaysia, Laos, Cambodia), push cart charcoal moo ping, kai yang, tuk tuks and so on in 20 years OH HELL YEA it is happening right now.

[moskito]

Almost instantly the climate change hoax morphs into discussion of Tsunami.

Their argument is so weak.

"bangkok MIGHT be underwater" yeah & I might win the lottery.

Global alarmists.

Come back when you have emperical evidence.

It''s all scare mongering till then.

So you need some proof. May be you should visit Phuket when there is full moon. A good time then is around 12:00 when seawater level is on its high. In Kohsireh Phuket Town everyone can see pretty good whats going on. Streets are already under water and this was not happen some years ago. I am sure there are other places, not only in Thailand where you can see the same things.

But anyway, if up to me seawater can rise more and wash away all these people messing around with OUR planet. Most of so called humans running around these days just give a f..k whats really happend.

The damage of natural enviroment is just not in the daily massmedia programm...GUESS WHY

Oilcompanys and Global firms destroying our planet for the sake of some bankers and billionaires while the normal idiot still needs a car which uses more then 10L of Gasoline (2,5 Gallon for our US friends)

Google for Oilsand and Canada. Its unbelivable what is going on there and the Arctis is next. We doesnt deserve a place like earth! most of humans for sure dont

[hardy1943]

20 years might be a little quick, but undoubtedly, Bangkok faces big problems simply because of the uncontrolled construction downtown and in the suburbs which will continue to block natural drainage. I wonder if their assumptions of subsidence and land erosion include the fact that in 20 years time Bangkok will probably have 25 million inhabitants and built area will take up 50% more than it does today.

However this quote is a beauty.

If a major quake hit the area near the Philippines a tsunami would take at least 14 to 17 hours to hit Thailand.

That is alright then. The authorities can't even manage the traffic system as it is today. How the hell would they attempt to move this many people in 14 days, let along 14 hours.

The ChineseThai which actually rule and own Thailand they and their businesses and money be gone way before, so lot less people just the working class be left.

[Thai at Heart]

Naturally they have ignored the fact ,that Bangkok and the surrounds are on a major esturine flood plain, that the new airport has blocked much natural drainage, that excessive water extraction is causing subsidence, that increasing amounts of suburban paddy fields are being concreted over reducing drainage and increasing run off.

Ignore rising sea level, ignore tsunami, Bangkok is doomed anyway, 20 years seems a reasonable estimate.

the end is near! BKK sinners repent or move to Pattaya

lol

[SweeneyAgonistes]

The sea-level rise has been estimated at around 1.5 millimeters, not 18mm per year. If you work with data that has been exaggerated by a factor of 10, you are bound to get absurd results.

2 metres by 2100 is probably at the upper bounds of predictions but a metre is quite possible. There's also a considerable degree of local variation in this - sea levels do rise equally.And on top of that, you have other factors. For example,if you have increased precipitation in more extreme weather events (which is very likely) then Bangkok will obviously at even greater risk of flooding.

Edited December 21, 2010 by SweeneyAgonistes

[dave111223]

there are ALOT of places in bangkok where the height is negative in respect to sea level.

example: parts of Ratchadapisek Road by -9 Meters

LOL! Ratchadapisek is 9 meters below sea level?? What are you using for a "GPS Device", are twigs and a bits of string involved?

[givenall]

It's pretty obvious that Bangkok's long-term future is somewhere between dire and non-existent but at the same time, it's not going to disappear beneath the waves by lunchtime next Thursday.

i was ready, now what should i do with my boat

[Thai at Heart]

20 years might be a little quick, but undoubtedly, Bangkok faces big problems simply because of the uncontrolled construction downtown and in the suburbs which will continue to block natural drainage. I wonder if their assumptions of subsidence and land erosion include the fact that in 20 years time Bangkok will probably have 25 million inhabitants and built area will take up 50% more than it does today.

However this quote is a beauty.

If a major quake hit the area near the Philippines a tsunami would take at least 14 to 17 hours to hit Thailand.

That is alright then. The authorities can't even manage the traffic system as it is today. How the hell would they attempt to move this many people in 14 days, let along 14 hours.

The ChineseThai which actually rule and own Thailand they and their businesses and money be gone way before, so lot less people just the working class be left.

I think you misunderstand Thai business if you believe they can simply up sticks and set up somewhere else and tread on the toes of another set of Thai Chinese families up country. Chinese businesses don't do turf wars. Factories possibly, but how many gold shops,beer distributors or pump shops can a given up country city take?

[trogers]

there are ALOT of places in bangkok where the height is negative in respect to sea level.

example: parts of Ratchadapisek Road by -9 Meters

LOL! Ratchadapisek is 9 meters below sea level?? What are you using for a "GPS Device", are twigs and a bits of string involved?

I suspect he took a wrong turn and the GPS in the car made a reading while it was lying at the bottom of the klong behind the Korean embassy...

[biloutte]

better i bore to go hua hin by van in 20 years will b older boring to travel is nice i can look the see in my garden

if they afraid by that first think will be interresting to control all car, bus,and truck for pollution make problem with ozone and we can maybee help little like this

if this one happening mother nature is stronger us but we forget many time that

good luck and all of people afraid go and learn to swim

lol

[RickBradford]

2 metres by 2100 is probably at the upper bounds of predictions but a metre is quite possible.

That would mean a sea-level rise of over 11mm per year, which is not being seen anywhere on the planet.

Here is an NOAA graph of sea level globally - http://tidesandcurre.../sltrends.shtml. The arrows near Thailand show either a slight rise (0 to 3 mm/year) or a slight fall (of the same size).

Tide gauge data in Asia supports this conclusion -- in India, they show mean sea level rise of only 1.3 mm per year; A 60-gear study across the Pacific shows a rate of sea level rise of 2mm per year in the Pacific.

Even the alarmists at the IPCC have settled on a range between 1.8mm and 5.9mm per year.

Bangkok may well flood; but rising sea levels will not be the cause.

Edited December 21, 2010 by RickBradford

[SweeneyAgonistes]

That's a forecast, not a historical record. If you go to http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2010/03/ippc-sealevel-gate/ and scroll down you'll see links to a bunch of papers and press releases on this.

[phanu]

honestly, as i see the water under Memorial Bridge 5 years ago .. and compare to now .. it does look to me as much less than 20 Years until the water can't hold back anymore.

additionaly ... everyone with a GPS Device in the car .. will know ... there are ALOT of places in bangkok where the height is negative in respect to sea level.

example: parts of Ratchadapisek Road by -9 Meters

if the water gets over the fence once, there will be a holding back by the goverment ? i dont think so ...

as there is either no manpower or technology avaiable to pump millions of Liters back out of the town.

Change for a new GPS !!!

[whybother]

I think you need a new GPS device.

Areal Maps of BMA show the same data ... looks accurate to me.

We're not living in the Netherlands. There hasn't been any land reclamation. A bit of draining to get rid of the swamps ... but 9 metres?

There are klongs in these areas that drain out to the river and the sea. How exactly do they do that if they are 9 metres below sea level?

Yes, there are some pumps ... but 9 metres?? A 3 to 4 storey building?

[SweeneyAgonistes]

Parts of Bangkok are beneath sea-level but 9 metres does seem to be pushing it.

[RickBradford]

I wrote:

Tide gauge data in Asia supports this conclusion -- in India, they show mean sea level rise of only 1.3 mm per year; A 60-year study across the Pacific shows a rate of sea level rise of 2mm per year in the Pacific.

Those are historical records, not forecasts. Sea levels have been steadily rising between 1 and 3mm per year since about 1820 and the end of the Little Ice Age.

As fer the Real Climate site, it is the house organ of The Team; Gavin Schmidt, Michael Mann and all those other wonderful fantasists who brought us the ClimateGate scandal. Its alarmist rhetoric is only matched by its lack of credible science.

Edited December 21, 2010 by RickBradford