Silver Price Today...

[Soulwy]

I was at a Thai Hilltribe Silver shop today and I couldn't believe my ears... in October 2010 it was 24,5 Baht per gram. Today...40 baht!!!

Silver has become the modern gold...

[mogoso]

World silver prices have traditionally been somewhat pegged to a percentage of what gold sells for. Silver is catching up to that percentage that it historically holds. Some readers of TV have been inquiring for the past 6-12 months about where to buy silver anticipating the upswing in price.

Silver prices are hovering today (8 Apr 11) around $40 dollars an ounce, with the expectation of reaching $50 before profit taking ramps up.

Edited April 8, 2011 by mogoso

[flying]

As mogos said silver is looked at in a silver/gold ratio

Back on Oct 2008 that ratio was 77/1

Today it stands at 36/1

So in 08 it took 77 ounces of silver to buy 1 ounce of gold

Today it takes 36

IMHO Silver has legs yet to run

Lastly remember that neither Silver nor gold is going up.

It is the fiat currencies that they are measured in that are going down in buying power.

It takes more of these devalued dollars to buy gold/silver/commodities

Edited April 8, 2011 by flying

[kennalder]

As mogos said silver is looked at in a silver/gold ratio

Back on Oct 2008 that ratio was 77/1

Today it stands at 36/1

So in 08 it took 77 ounces of silver to buy 1 ounce of gold

Today it takes 36

IMHO Silver has legs yet to run

Lastly remember that neither Silver nor gold is going up.

It is the fiat currencies that they are measured in that are going down in buying power.

It takes more of these devalued dollars to buy gold/silver/commodities

This is only partly true. If it were the total explanation then Silver and Gold would have gone up by identical percentages. The change in the ratio is due to speculation on whether or not a shortage could develop in Silver. It is unknown how much is due to recent speculation on whether or not the fiat currencies could collapse partially or completely.

I spent almost 25 years in futures and options business. During that time I learned one saying and made up another.

I learned when everyone is thinking the same thing, then no-one is thinking.

I made up the following when someone asked me what I thought was the quickest way to make a bunch of money in a short time. I responded: Take the opposite side of someone trying to make a bunch of money in a short time. (circa 1995)

[flying]

This is only partly true. If it were the total explanation then Silver and Gold would have gone up by identical percentages. The change in the ratio is due to speculation on whether or not a shortage could develop in Silver. It is unknown how much is due to recent speculation on whether or not the fiat currencies could collapse partially or completely.

Yes speculation is always a factor...I mentioned the G/S ratio just to show

how the ratio has strayed far from the historic ratios

A good albeit older article...

http://the-moneychanger.com/articles_files/mmm_files/silver_files/silver_will_outperform.php

As for speculation we cannot ignore the massive naked shorting that goes on in Silver.

( for folks that dont know...it is shorting (borrowing) silver that does not exist )

Groups like JP Morgan in recent times has had many charges leveled against them in that area.

[luther]

Where's the Thai Hilltribe Silver Shop?

[cheynewalk]

I bought into silver around last october, 1000 oz bars from the perth mint at $19 US/ounce and sold them 10 weeks later for $29/ounce. Made a very tidy sum of 55% profit. Might still get back in now as I think it will go up to $65/ounce and re-correct to the historical 20/1 gold ratio.

[Orita]

Those who think silver has still upside potential and don't make it to the coin or ornament dealer can still participate in one of the

available Exchange Traded Silver Funds, SLV being the largest. Another ETF that would profit if silver continuous to rise, would

be SIL that invests in silver mining companies.

As of course no one knows the future for certain, some kind of stop-loss strategy would be advisable. Based on the tremendous

ride silver had since last August another correction seems inevitable.

As the old saying goes: Nothing lasts forever.

Edited April 9, 2011 by Orita

[gregb]

This is only partly true. If it were the total explanation then Silver and Gold would have gone up by identical percentages. The change in the ratio is due to speculation on whether or not a shortage could develop in Silver. It is unknown how much is due to recent speculation on whether or not the fiat currencies could collapse partially or completely.

Silver is a difficult play right now. The most widely believed scenario is that silver is primarily and industrial metal that has a small monetary component as well. When we look at the rapid rise of silver vs. gold, which is primarily a monetary metal, we therefore have to conclude that it is the commodity aspects of silver, and the associated speculation that goes with being a commodity, which is causing its trip to the moon.

The downside of this is that when the next recessionary event strikes, such as happened in 2008, silver is going to crash...probably faster than it has risen. I don't hold nearly as much silver as I do gold, as I don't like ETF's and it is too difficult to sell silver in Thailand, not to mention the 7% VAT hit you take on every purchase. However, I think it is foolish not to own any, but I am wondering if now might not be the appropriate time to go full into gold?

I can already feel the economies of the world beginning to constrict with the high oil price, and as soon as the inevitable recessions start to materialize, silver is going to be in free fall. Of course, I'll probably just hold it down through the crash and through the next rise up and through several oscillations into the future. Like gold, the long term trajectory of silver is up, but there are going to be huge crashes along the way.

If you are looking at buying in right now, I would say wait for a while. It will almost certainly be cheaper than this in the future.

[Soulwy]

Thanks Gregb and others for explaining and your views. I have never understood the economical/ speculation system, I am just a poor (but happy) jewellery maker who almost choked when I heard the latest silverprice. I remember 2 years ago I hardly had to think about prices when I first bought supplies in Thailand, but now I will only buy what is really necessairy (and search in other countries as well where silver is cheaper than Thailand)

For the ones unknown with this silver site: http://www.kitco.com...thly_graphs.plx

@Luther: Loi Kroh in Chiang Mai has a few Thai Hill Tribe Silver Shops (Some will tell you it is 99 % silver, but my guess is 95-96%) and Chatuchak Market in Bangkok.

Edited April 9, 2011 by Soulwy

[ChiangMaiFun]

is there anywhere to buy the 'real deal'? assayed etc.? i know the Gold shops don't sell it and Hilltribe silver is a huge risk - anywhere sells kosher bars that can be sold easily?

[flying]

Checking just now I see Silver up another .81 USD in Euro/Asia

$41.76/oz