Thai Opinion: A New Storm Brewing?

[webfact]

ANALYSIS

A new storm brewing?

By Political Desk

The Nation

Thailand will remain in suspense until Tuesday, when the Election Commission will decide on suspended PM-to-be Yingluck

Dark clouds continue to hover over Thai politics, and the saying that Thais have been cursed to live with one political suspense after another is not an overstatement. Over the next six days, the whole country will once again have to hold its collective breath, this time over whether the possibility of having its first female prime minister will be shattered. Yingluck Shinawatra has been "suspended" by the Election Commission, and the fragile political peace depends on the further actions of the EC, which will be made public on Tuesday.

The EC bombshell - its decision to delay endorsing Yingluck, outgoing Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and 14 other party-list candidates as MPs - may prove overblown if the panel was simply reacting to complaints against the affected politicians as it traditionally does. But it may turn earth-shaking if the 16 - particularly Yingluck - remain unendorsed next week. The bad news for Yingluck is that while it is not unusual for the EC to delay endorsing accused candidates (who are normally confirmed later), it has never before acted against party-list winners in this way.

An upsetting situation

Disqualifying Yingluck alone would be enough to send red-shirt protesters back onto the streets. But on Tuesday, the EC did more than just suspend Yingluck. Several red-shirt leaders on Pheu Thai's party list did not get endorsement, a situation that is upsetting the entire red-shirt apparatus. The movement yesterday decided to postpone next week's concert at Lumpini Park so it can "charge the battery" for a new rally if something bad happens to Yingluck and the red candidates.

The delay has cast a shroud of uncertainty over the process of convening the new House of Representatives and the election of the new prime minister. The law requires a quorum of at least 475 MPs to convene the House, whereas only 358 election winners have been endorsed. However, since the law allows the EC to "endorse first and disqualify later", analysts believe the new House could convene in time, within 30 days of the July 3 election.

But even if the 475-MP quorum is met, Yingluck must be in it to prevent turmoil. If she is disqualified, the Pheu Thai Party can nominate another party-list winner for the prime minister post. Parliamentary problems can be dealt with, but those on the streets may not be as easy to solve.

Yingluck has reportedly been cleared of vote-buying after charges involving her cooking noodles for her supporters were dropped. But the EC has kept alive more serious and potentially more damaging charges concerning her involvement with banned politicians during the election campaign. She mentioned the "advisory" role of her brother Thaksin many times during the campaign, and election posters depicting her as Pheu Thai's prime ministerial candidate blatantly declared: "Thaksin thinks, Pheu Thai does".

The Democrats, it seems, are not in much better shape. If Abhisit is found guilty of vote-buying - his case is related to a government-sponsored sales event on an advanced voting day - they may face a party dissolution saga all over again. Some pro-red critics claim Abhisit was put among those unendorsed only to make the whole list look unbiased. However, there are analysts who believe Tuesday's EC action was intended to sweep both camps away to pave the way for a new political order.

Whether or not a conspiracy to rid both the Democrat and Pheu Thai parties of their key figures is brewing, the EC is not in a sound position either. The charges against the red-shirt leaders on the party list, in particular, are complicated and may be subject to serious loopholes. The panel may have become as vulnerable as the people it has suspended, and history is not on the commission's side when it comes to legal counterattacks by its so-called victims. Former commissioners have been jailed for malfeasance.

Yingluck may survive this easily if the "EC is just observing tradition" theory is correct. But whatever the EC's motives, this post-election saga has provided her with the first real glimpse of what lies ahead. If or once she's officially elected prime minister, a floodgate of political problems is likely to open. Her testimonies in the Thaksin assets case will come back to haunt her almost immediately, and experts believe that what she said during that trial may even match the EC's announcement on Tuesday in terms of loopholes.

-- The Nation 2011-07-14

[EvilDrSomkid]

Looks like we are in for a repeat of last years trouble. Didn't 4 of the 5 EC members go on a 2 week trip to Europe right before the election?

They all knew that banned politicians were participating in the campaign. And now they make a fuss about it? AFTER the election?

The Red Shirts are already making threatening noises.

This country is determined to tear itself apart. I guess our company can forget about making good profit this year...

btw, the pic above could meet Pedo Bear's seal of approval, I would guess...

Edited July 14, 2011 by EvilDrSomkid

[anothertorres]

the heck is that guy doing?

[tingtongfarang]

the heck is that guy doing?

Noticed that too but was afraid to ask

[Crushdepth]

Disqualifying Yingluck alone would be enough to send red-shirt protesters back onto the streets. But on Tuesday, the EC did more than just suspend Yingluck. Several red-shirt leaders on Pheu Thai's party list did not get endorsement, a situation that is upsetting the entire red-shirt apparatus. The movement yesterday decided to postpone next week's concert at Lumpini Park so it can "charge the battery" for a new rally if something bad happens to Yingluck and the red candidates.

The reason they haven't been endorsed yet is that there have been complaints made and the EC has a duty to investigate them. Normal and essential procedure. If you want to whisper about conspiracies, point the finger at the people who raised the complaints.

[EvilDrSomkid]

the heck is that guy doing?

Noticed that too but was afraid to ask

Like I said, looks like it will meet Pedo Bear's seal of approval.

[chmiroau]

the heck is that guy doing?

Noticed that too but was afraid to ask

He is getting his graft payment,, I'm sure.

[Samuian]

the heck is that guy doing?

Who?

The EC is a panel, not one guy!

However, "the games are opened!"

I love this bit:

But whatever the EC's motives, this post-election saga has provided her with the first real glimpse of what lies ahead. If or once she's officially elected prime minister, a floodgate of political problems is likely to open. Her testimonies in the Thaksin assets case will come back to haunt her almost immediately, and experts believe that what she said during that trial may even match the EC's announcement on Tuesday in terms of loopholes.

Edited July 14, 2011 by Samuian

[Thaddeus]

the heck is that guy doing?

Who?

The EC is a panel, not one guy!

The guy in the picture, not the panel.

[tragickingdom]

The EC does not know Thai law. That is understandable if you use the constitution as a piece of toilet paper that you rewrite after just another coup. Robert Amsterdam council of Thaksin does however employ people to tudy the rules and he says this:

the wording of the Act does not even cover the allegations contained in the complaint. The Act states that “Where a political party has been dissolved due to the violation of Section 42 paragraph two, Section 82 or Section 94, a person who was previously a member of the Executive Committee of the dissolved political party shall not, within a period of five years from the date of the dissolution, apply for the formation of a new political party, be a member of an Executive Committee of a political party, or play a role in the registration of a new political party.”

Given that neither Thaksin nor Chaturon have applied for the formation of a new party, nor are they members of Pheu Thai’s Executive Committee, the Democrats’ complaint is baseless. There is no specific prohibition in the Act against campaigning for a party, advising a party unofficially, or speaking on its behalf.

Further, even if the Electoral Commission were somehow able to conjure up the reasoning to find a non-existant violation of the Act, the law only contemplates penalties for the banned politicians, not for the party (as per Section 120 of the Organic Act on Political Parties, “imprisonment for a term not exceeding two years or a fine not exceeding forty thousand baht (THB 40,000), or both“). Therefore the proposed solutions contained in the Democrats’ complaint – mainly aimed at dissolving the PTP and taking over control of the government yet again through unlawful administrative means – is completely and thoroughly illegal in any objective assessment.

In order to dissolve Pheu Thai , the Court would have to establish, in accordance with Section 237 of the Constitution, that one of its candidates committed electoral fraud “resulting in the election to be conducted in a dishonest or unfair manner,” and that at least one party executive was complicit in the fraud or failed to stop it. Electoral fraud is defined narrowly as a “violation of Organic Act on the Election of Members of the House of Representatives and the Source of Senators, or Rules or Notifications of the Election Commission,” but does not include infractions of the Organic Act on Political Parties of the kind that Thaksin and Chaturon stand accused of committing. No reading of the relevant statutes can support the dissolution of Pheu Thai based on the role played by banned politicians, as the conditions simply do not exist.