Crisis' Cloud Thailand Tourism

[george]

Crisis' cloud Thailand tourism

BANGKOK: -- Thailand's political crisis and an ongoing insurgency in the south are driving away Asian holidaymakers, with industry experts warning the kingdom could miss its annual tourism target.

The state-run Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) has forecast that 13.8m foreign tourists will visit the kingdom this year.

Asians make up 60% of the total.

But the Kasikorn Research Centre said tourist arrivals would reach 12.5m, with tourism revenue seen at 460bn baht ($12.2bn), down from the TAT's target of 486bn baht.

Key money spinner

Tourism is a key money spinner for Thailand, accounting for six percent of the economy. While the center's forecasts of arrivals and revenue fell short of the TAT's goals, both were still higher than in 2005.

"Protracted demonstrations and unrest in the south may intensify during the interim government," the center said in a paper. "This will affect the tourism atmosphere in the late part of the first quarter, and many tourists could delay or change their plans."

Suparerk Soorangura, former president of the Association of Thai Travel Agents, also forecast a slowdown in foreign tourism due to the unrest in the country's south.

"The violence in the south is continuing and that might affect tourist arrivals this year," Suparerk told AFP.

The two-year insurgency in the Muslim-majority south on the border with Malaysia has left more than 1 200 people dead.

Mystery

Exactly who is behind the violence remains a mystery, with most experts say there is a complex web of Islamic separatists, organised criminals and local corruption.

Meanwhile, Thailand plunged into a political crisis, sparked by public anger over a $1.9bn tax-free stock sale by prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra's family in late January.

Since then, Thaksin has faced street protests demanding his resignation over alleged abuse of power and corruption. In a bid to silence his critics, Thaksin called snap polls on April 2.

His ruling Thai Rak Thai (Thais Love Thais) party won the election with 56%, but the victory was undermined by an opposition boycott that succeeded in persuading many Thais to cast protest votes.

Tearfully stepped aside

Just two days after the elections, Thaksin tearfully announced that he would step aside, while the Constitutional Court last week declared the April 2 polls invalid and ordered a new election.

Apart from the Thai political factors, Kasikorn said foreign tourism could slow down in the summer as more Europeans would likely stay at home during the football World Cup in Germany from June 9-July 9.

Industry experts also expected a slump in domestic tourism due to soaring oil prices, which pushed Thailand's inflation to a seven-month high of 6% in April.

"Thai consumers have been tightening their budgets due to rising living costs" sparked by high oil prices, said Charoen Wangananont, president of the Association of Domestic Travel.

The number of Thais travelling within the country in 2006 would be flat or slightly lower than in 2005, Charoen said.

But Kasikorn added more Thais were travelling abroad, taking advantage of a strong Thai baht, which stayed at a six-year high against the dollar.

China, Singapore and Hong Kong are the most popular destinations for Thai tourists and South Korea is gaining popularity thanks to its widely popular TV soap operas.

--Agencies 2006-05-14

[penzman]

Murdered and raped tourists have no effect on this?