EC hits on new poll strategy but treads carefully: Thai report

[webfact]

SPECIAL REPORT
EC hits on new poll strategy but treads carefully
Attayuth Bootsripoom
The Nation

BANGKOK: -- The Election Commission (EC) seems to have seen the light at the end of the tunnel in attempting to resolve the country's political standoff which, if prolonged much longer, could send the country reeling under civil strife, economic meltdown and political and social disintegration.

The EC has come to understand that holding a new election across the country is the solution to the current political crisis.

However, it can achieve this mission only through a Constitutional Court ruling.

For the process needed to complete the February 2 poll, the caretaker government and the EC have locked horns over whether the EC must issue a royal decree to fix an election date for the 28 constituencies in southern provinces that have no MP candidates.

The government has insisted the EC can go ahead and hold MP candidacy registration without a royal decree on a new polling date, since the registration is related to the February 2 poll. It has also cited legal principles of interpreting legislation in a way that would bring about practical results, and not a dead-end.

The EC, however, has chosen to strictly interpret the law, saying there is no legal venue that allows the EC to re-hold candidacy registration in those 28 constituencies; hence, the government must issue a new decree.

The EC appears to have hit on a motive for proposing that the government issues a new decree, even though it knows the government will not approve its proposal.

Its motive is that it can cite this conflict of authority to seek a Constitutional Court

ruling, a legal channel stipulated in Article 214 of the Constitution.

But instead of rushing to seek the court ruling over this legal dispute, the EC is treading carefully so that it does not repeat the same bungle it committed when it sought the court ruling over who has the authority to reschedule the election - the government or itself. The Constitutional Court ruled that the government and the EC should discuss the matter together.

Legal experts believe the Constitutional Court did not issue a legal interpretation in a way that translated into an EC victory because the EC failed to discuss it with the government prior to bringing the legal dispute before the court.

Even though the problem of the 28 constituencies is unprecedented, the EC has anticipated the court will rule that the new candidacy registration requires a new decree. This would result in the 28 constituencies having a new election date, which is unconstitutional because the country's top law stipulates that voting must be held on the same day across the country.

To prevent an issue of constitutionality, the court might rule that the EC holds an election again across the country without nullifying the February 2 election, as that would risk plunging the country into deeper conflict.

While a royal decree on a new poll was being legislated, the EC could bring the two rival political camps to the negotiating table in order that no party boycotted the new election.

The EC believes both political camps would likely accept this solution to end the political crisis.

The Pheu Thai party would not mind opting for this solution because it has said it was willing to issue a new decree as long as there was a court ruling to back it legally, otherwise the PM might risk breaking any law by issuing a new election bill.

In terms of going to the polls again, the Pheu Thai has a long-held belief that it is invincible.


-- The Nation 2014-02-10

[EricBerg]

The caretakers aren't really interested in new elections. They will need all the time they can get for covering up as much as they can of their wrong doings.

Meanwhile the missunderstood fugitive yesterday met up with 20 PTP people in Myanmar. Seems they had something to celebrate.

http://www.naewna.com/politic/89741

Remarkable detail: a high police officer was among the invited.

Edited February 9, 2014 by EricBerg

[mightyatom]

In terms of going to the polls again, the Pheu Thai has a long-held belief that it is invincible.

However, these last polls have revealed that they are in fact on the way out. 8 million votes won't get them elected.

I think the protesters, EC and the Dems may have got their heads together on this one and come to the conclusion that 'reforms before elections' is not getting them anywhere.

I can see the CC ruling that new nationwide elections should be held, and the Dems will run. That is what this article seems to be paving the way for in my interpretation of it.

with their assured 11 million plus votes and whatever else they can mop up from the disenfranchised EX-voters of the PTP, should see them pretty much run away with it.

[bigbamboo]

Let's just have a proper election and be done with it.

[BlueNoseCodger]

Let's just have a proper election and be done with it.

Suthep won't stop protesting, Abhisit won't put the Democrats up for election, third party candidates that would have taken Democrat votes were blocked by PDRC in the South, they didn't want any fresh opposition party stealing their votes.

So a new election won't fix anything, EC will still close down polling stations as soon as PDRC protests appear, EC will still close registrations without trying to register candidates like they did in the south. EC will still refused to ask the army or police to clear the post office so ballot papers can go out.

EC does not have the legal power to demand fresh elections. The CC already ruled that both EC and Government need to approve an election restart by getting a new decree. So EC is simply asking the same question again.

Under section 236/6, the EC is required to hold referendums

Section 236. The Election Commission shall have the following powers and duties:

(6) to order a new election or a new voting at a referendum to be held in any or all polling stations when there occurs convincing evidence that the election or the voting at a referendum in that or those polling stations has not proceeded in an honest and fair manner;

Notice the part I underlined. EC has a duty to hold fresh referendums.

The converse of this is that the EC does not have the power to order referendums in polling stations where the election were held in an honest and fair manner. In other words EC cannot simply demand fresh elections everywhere.

One last point, this is not the first time EC has had to register candidates in a seat and hold a by-election. It's common. People die, people get banned or resign. By-elections are common and frequent. Don Muang last June for example. EC is pretending it has no authority, but it is common practice and also law. If it doesn't have authority to run these by-elections, how did it have the authority the hundreds of times it ran them previously?! Unprecedented? Nope!

Edited February 10, 2014 by BlueNoseCodger

[rickirs]

Let's just have a proper election and be done with it.

Suthep won't stop protesting, Abhisit won't put the Democrats up for election, third party candidates that would have taken Democrat votes were blocked by PDRC in the South, they didn't want any fresh opposition party stealing their votes.

So a new election won't fix anything, EC will still close down polling stations as soon as PDRC protests appear, EC will still close registrations without trying to register candidates like they did in the south. EC will still refused to ask the army or police to clear the post office so ballot papers can go out.

EC does not have the legal power to demand fresh elections. The CC already ruled that both EC and Government need to approve an election restart by getting a new decree. So EC is simply asking the same question again.

Under section 236/6, the EC is required to hold referendums

Section 236. The Election Commission shall have the following powers and duties:

(6) to order a new election or a new voting at a referendum to be held in any or all polling stations when there occurs convincing evidence that the election or the voting at a referendum in that or those polling stations has not proceeded in an honest and fair manner;

Notice the part I underlined. EC has a duty to hold fresh referendums.

The converse of this is that the EC does not have the power to order referendums in polling stations where the election were held in an honest and fair manner. In other words EC cannot simply demand fresh elections everywhere.

One last point, this is not the first time EC has had to register candidates in a seat and hold a by-election. It's common. People die, people get banned or resign. By-elections are common and frequent. Don Muang last June for example. EC is pretending it has no authority, but it is common practice and also law. If it doesn't have authority to run these by-elections, how did it have the authority the hundreds of times it ran them previously?! Unprecedented? Nope!

A vey thorough analysis solely missed in these discussions. Suthep cannot afford ANY election where the Democrats risk losing. Failing a coup, he wants to guarantee his party's election to Parliament and needs time to rig "reforms" that will paralize the PTP. And this can only be done through his people's committee taht will become a de facto unelected government for an unspecified time. The EC in contrast seems to do everything it can to stall and obstruct the government, all the while relying on an unreasonable change in Suthep's strategy to bypass any election.

[Scamper]

This is indeed a situation that is without precedent. Never in Thai history as anything close to this happened before in an election. Not even close. Not only that, but the administration refuses to work with the EC. That's never happened before. Not only that, but the administration has never accused the EC of being part of a conspiracy to bring it down. That's never happened before either. The Constitution Court said that the EC and the administration should work together. The EC is continually trying to set up meetings with Yingluck and administration officials, but the administration refuses to talk to them or work with them, and accuses them of trying to undermine them. So for those who think this is all remarkably within precedent, it's time to wake up and smell the coffee. Under the present thoroughly unprecedented circumstances, there is no other resolution other than a Constitutional Court ruling. That will be something that neither will be able to dodge. Of course, Pheu Thai yet again reserves the right not to understand the ruling.

[rickirs]

In terms of going to the polls again, the Pheu Thai has a long-held belief that it is invincible.

However, these last polls have revealed that they are in fact on the way out. 8 million votes won't get them elected.

I think the protesters, EC and the Dems may have got their heads together on this one and come to the conclusion that 'reforms before elections' is not getting them anywhere.

I can see the CC ruling that new nationwide elections should be held, and the Dems will run. That is what this article seems to be paving the way for in my interpretation of it.

with their assured 11 million plus votes and whatever else they can mop up from the disenfranchised EX-voters of the PTP, should see them pretty much run away with it.

You cite a reasonable scenario except that Suthep has NEVER, NEVER agreed to participating in any election prior to establishing HIS corrpution and voting reforms that will require elections to be suspended up to 18 months and Yingluck's administration to be disbanded immediately. Suthep will not take a chance on open democratic elections until he can predict with certainty that Democrats will win.

[Robby nz]

Only took 5 posts for the Suthep bash to start.

[BlueNoseCodger]

Only took 5 posts for the Suthep bash to start.

My post you refer to barely mentions Suthep and you didn't dispute the point:

Suthep won't stop protesting, Abhisit won't put the Democrats up for election, third party candidates that would have taken Democrat votes were blocked by PDRC in the South, they didn't want any fresh opposition party stealing their votes.

The rest is about the legality of what EC is trying, which is just a redux of their last attempt:

So a new election won't fix anything, EC will still close down polling stations as soon as PDRC protests appear, EC will still close registrations without trying to register candidates like they did in the south. EC will still refused to ask the army or police to clear the post office so ballot papers can go out.

EC does not have the legal power to demand fresh elections. The CC already ruled that both EC and Government need to approve an election restart by getting a new decree. So EC is simply asking the same question again.

Under section 236/6, the EC is required to hold referendums

Section 236. The Election Commission shall have the following powers and duties:

(6) to order a new election or a new voting at a referendum to be held in any or all polling stations when there occurs convincing evidence that the election or the voting at a referendum in that or those polling stations has not proceeded in an honest and fair manner;

Notice the part I underlined. EC has a duty to hold fresh referendums.

The converse of this is that the EC does not have the power to order referendums in polling stations where the election were held in an honest and fair manner. In other words EC cannot simply demand fresh elections everywhere.

One last point, this is not the first time EC has had to register candidates in a seat and hold a by-election. It's common. People die, people get banned or resign. By-elections are common and frequent. Don Muang last June for example. EC is pretending it has no authority, but it is common practice and also law. If it doesn't have authority to run these by-elections, how did it have the authority the hundreds of times it ran them previously?! Unprecedented? Nope!

[casualbiker]

Let's just have a proper election and be done with it.

Suthep won't stop protesting, Abhisit won't put the Democrats up for election, third party candidates that would have taken Democrat votes were blocked by PDRC in the South, they didn't want any fresh opposition party stealing their votes.

So a new election won't fix anything, EC will still close down polling stations as soon as PDRC protests appear, EC will still close registrations without trying to register candidates like they did in the south. EC will still refused to ask the army or police to clear the post office so ballot papers can go out.

EC does not have the legal power to demand fresh elections. The CC already ruled that both EC and Government need to approve an election restart by getting a new decree. So EC is simply asking the same question again.

Under section 236/6, the EC is required to hold referendums

Section 236. The Election Commission shall have the following powers and duties:

(6) to order a new election or a new voting at a referendum to be held in any or all polling stations when there occurs convincing evidence that the election or the voting at a referendum in that or those polling stations has not proceeded in an honest and fair manner;

Notice the part I underlined. EC has a duty to hold fresh referendums.

The converse of this is that the EC does not have the power to order referendums in polling stations where the election were held in an honest and fair manner. In other words EC cannot simply demand fresh elections everywhere.

One last point, this is not the first time EC has had to register candidates in a seat and hold a by-election. It's common. People die, people get banned or resign. By-elections are common and frequent. Don Muang last June for example. EC is pretending it has no authority, but it is common practice and also law. If it doesn't have authority to run these by-elections, how did it have the authority the hundreds of times it ran them previously?! Unprecedented? Nope!

About your 1st few paragraphs.. who knows unless they are asked..

Your last point the elections down south would NOT be by-elections as there were NO elections in the first place...Unprecedented? YES!

[moonao]

Ok, have new elections, but then can we jail the EC members for life for crimes to the nation ?

[BlueNoseCodger]

Suthep won't stop protesting, Abhisit won't put the Democrats up for election, third party candidates that would have taken Democrat votes were blocked by PDRC in the South, they didn't want any fresh opposition party stealing their votes.

So a new election won't fix anything, EC will still close down polling stations as soon as PDRC protests appear, EC will still close registrations without trying to register candidates like they did in the south. EC will still refused to ask the army or police to clear the post office so ballot papers can go out.

EC does not have the legal power to demand fresh elections. The CC already ruled that both EC and Government need to approve an election restart by getting a new decree. So EC is simply asking the same question again.

Under section 236/6, the EC is required to hold referendums

Section 236. The Election Commission shall have the following powers and duties:

(6) to order a new election or a new voting at a referendum to be held in any or all polling stations when there occurs convincing evidence that the election or the voting at a referendum in that or those polling stations has not proceeded in an honest and fair manner;

Notice the part I underlined. EC has a duty to hold fresh referendums.

The converse of this is that the EC does not have the power to order referendums in polling stations where the election were held in an honest and fair manner. In other words EC cannot simply demand fresh elections everywhere.

One last point, this is not the first time EC has had to register candidates in a seat and hold a by-election. It's common. People die, people get banned or resign. By-elections are common and frequent. Don Muang last June for example. EC is pretending it has no authority, but it is common practice and also law. If it doesn't have authority to run these by-elections, how did it have the authority the hundreds of times it ran them previously?! Unprecedented? Nope!

About your 1st few paragraphs.. who knows unless they are asked..

Your last point the elections down south would NOT be by-elections as there were NO elections in the first place...Unprecedented? YES!

"About your 1st few paragraphs.. who knows unless they are asked.."

Yingluk already offered on 25th January, Suthep refused, so para #1, Suthep won't stop protesting.

Paragraph #2, the EC has refused to ask army & police to clear protestors, 61+ times now! During party registrations, during 28 southern registrations, during 2 post office blockades, during 30+ polling station blockades.... So 62nd time isn't lucky. They clearly will not ever clear protestors, or ever do their job.

Paragraph #3 the Constitutional court has already ruled a Royal charter needs both EC and government. The rest explains why EC cannot go it alone.

Your last point the elections down south would NOT be by-elections as there were NO elections in the first place...Unprecedented? YES!

Section 236, 6 is not limited to by-elections. It covers *all* referendums in polling stations where the election were held in an honest and fair manner.

And these have been done where candidates have been disqualified after the election, so unprecedented, NO! It's normal EC practise!

Edited February 10, 2014 by BlueNoseCodger

[fab4]

Only took 5 posts for the Suthep bash to start.

With respect, actually, No, hold that, the very first post was a diatribe about people allegedly flying to meet Thaksin, not even an attempt of being on topic.

[Suriya4]

EC problem, EC go fix it.

Isn't that what EC is paid to do? Hold election.

Edited February 10, 2014 by Suriya4

[casualbiker]

Suthep won't stop protesting, Abhisit won't put the Democrats up for election, third party candidates that would have taken Democrat votes were blocked by PDRC in the South, they didn't want any fresh opposition party stealing their votes.

So a new election won't fix anything, EC will still close down polling stations as soon as PDRC protests appear, EC will still close registrations without trying to register candidates like they did in the south. EC will still refused to ask the army or police to clear the post office so ballot papers can go out.

EC does not have the legal power to demand fresh elections. The CC already ruled that both EC and Government need to approve an election restart by getting a new decree. So EC is simply asking the same question again.

Under section 236/6, the EC is required to hold referendums

Section 236. The Election Commission shall have the following powers and duties:

(6) to order a new election or a new voting at a referendum to be held in any or all polling stations when there occurs convincing evidence that the election or the voting at a referendum in that or those polling stations has not proceeded in an honest and fair manner;

Notice the part I underlined. EC has a duty to hold fresh referendums.

The converse of this is that the EC does not have the power to order referendums in polling stations where the election were held in an honest and fair manner. In other words EC cannot simply demand fresh elections everywhere.

One last point, this is not the first time EC has had to register candidates in a seat and hold a by-election. It's common. People die, people get banned or resign. By-elections are common and frequent. Don Muang last June for example. EC is pretending it has no authority, but it is common practice and also law. If it doesn't have authority to run these by-elections, how did it have the authority the hundreds of times it ran them previously?! Unprecedented? Nope!

About your 1st few paragraphs.. who knows unless they are asked..

Your last point the elections down south would NOT be by-elections as there were NO elections in the first place...Unprecedented? YES!

Yingluk already offered on 25th January, Suthep refused, so para #1, Suthep won't stop protesting.

Paragraph #2, the EC has refused to ask army & police to clear protestors, 61+ times now! During party registrations, during 28 southern registrations, during 2 post office blockades, during 30+ polling station blockades.... So 62nd time isn't lucky. They clearly will not ever clear protestors, or ever do their job.

Paragraph #3 the Constitutional court has already ruled a Royal charter needs both EC and government. The rest explains why EC cannot go it alone.

Section 236, 6 is not limited to by-elections. It covers *all* referendums in polling stations where the election were held in an honest and fair manner.

And these have been done where candidates have been disqualified after the election, so unprecedented, NO! It's normal EC practise!

ALL of your examples are where an election has taken place... There were NO elections in the most of the Southern provinces BECAUSE THEY HAD NO CANDIDATES hence there has NEVER been a situation like this before!

[kikoman]

In terms of going to the polls again, the Pheu Thai has a long-held belief that it is invincible.

However, these last polls have revealed that they are in fact on the way out. 8 million votes won't get them elected.

I think the protesters, EC and the Dems may have got their heads together on this one and come to the conclusion that 'reforms before elections' is not getting them anywhere.

I can see the CC ruling that new nationwide elections should be held, and the Dems will run. That is what this article seems to be paving the way for in my interpretation of it.

with their assured 11 million plus votes and whatever else they can mop up from the disenfranchised EX-voters of the PTP, should see them pretty much run away with it.

You seem to forget that was, a no campaigning, uncontested election where people are not interested in the numbers, the fact that half of the registered voters voted in a Election that the Democrats and the protesters actively block polling places and urged their followers not to vote,

As historically 10 million voters are habitual non voters in every Thai election, It meant 10 million people chose not to vote, That left !0 million that failed to show up, 20 million that backed the Democratic process!

Not good figures for the Democrats.

PTP received 15,744,180 votes to the Dems 11,433,180, around 4,300,000 more votes then the Dems, looking at the dismal failure of the stop the vote movement by the protesters and the Democrats, that leave PTP in a better position to win again.

That is all I ever wanted the new Thai PM to be elected to office in a fair open Election, If the Democrats win in a fair election, I would be disappointed, but as a believer in the Democratic process would accept the will of the Majority! It has always been that the Democracy in Thailand needs to prevail!

And Thank God it did!

A parting statement I never thought I would see the day that a yellow backer would admit Re: "The protesters, EC and the Dems" got together and came to the "conclusion that reforms before election's is not getting them anywhere" . The truth is finally spoken!

Cheers

Edited February 10, 2014 by kikoman

[marstons]

In terms of going to the polls again, the Pheu Thai has a long-held belief that it is invincible.

However, these last polls have revealed that they are in fact on the way out. 8 million votes won't get them elected.

I think the protesters, EC and the Dems may have got their heads together on this one and come to the conclusion that 'reforms before elections' is not getting them anywhere.

I can see the CC ruling that new nationwide elections should be held, and the Dems will run. That is what this article seems to be paving the way for in my interpretation of it.

with their assured 11 million plus votes and whatever else they can mop up from the disenfranchised EX-voters of the PTP, should see them pretty much run away with it.

doubt that very much, fair election they do not have a chance and they know it hence all the trouble.