Thai 'Red Shirts' warn of civil war if government falls

[kingalfred]

So Jatuporn is now officially threatening the security of the state by promising a civil war. Isn't it time for the army to step in and protect the state, as they are sworn to do?

army in name only pathetic

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[Soutpeel]

If it takes a civil war for the majority of the population to retain their civil rights then so be it.

The majority of the population do not want a civil war. Just a few nuts who are mostly on Thaksin's payroll.

And not forgetting a few nuts on here who also relish that thought.

That's the scary part reading some of these posts....some of the fruit loops on TV actually want a civil war to occur

[Hobiecat]

Sunday, March 2, 2014

Divided Thailand Civil War Impossible

March 3, 2014 (ATN) - For months now, the embattled regime of US-backed dictator Thaksin Shinawatra and his proxy political machine led by his nepotist-appointed sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, have floated the idea of retreating to the north of Thailand and establishing a new capital from which to rule.

Despite intense propaganda campaigns to establish this narrative, the regime's tenuous political holdings and crumbling support base makes it all but impossible.

It was in 2010 that the Asia Foundation conducted its "national public perception surveys of the Thai electorate," (2010's full .pdf here). In a summary report titled, "Survey Findings Challenge Notion of a Divided Thailand." It summarized the popular misconception of a "divided" Thailand by stating:

"Since Thailand’s color politics began pitting the People’s Alliance for Democracy’s (PAD) “Yellow-Shirt” movement against the National United Front of Democracy Against Dictatorship’s (UDD) “Red-Shirt” movement, political watchers have insisted that the Thai people are bitterly divided in their loyalties to rival political factions."

The survey, conducted over the course of late 2010 and involving 1,500 individuals, revealed however, a meager 7% of Thailand's population identified themselves as being "red" Thaksin supporters, with another 7% identifying themselves only as "leaning toward red."

In 2011, a mere 35% of all eligible voters cast ballots for the Shinawatra regime. Of all that actually voted, the regime failed to acquire even a popular majority. Since 2011, it has stumbled from one blunder to the next, from mishandling two seasons of flooding, to the unraveling of several unsustainable, ill-conceived "populist" policies, including a rice subsidy that has collapsed over half a year ago leaving farmers - once stalwart supporters of the regime - destitute, desperate, and joining ongoing anti-regime protests in growing numbers.

Sham-elections held last month on February 2, 2014 resulted in over half of the voting public boycotting them. Of those that did show up to vote, many elected to deface their ballots or check "no vote" in a display of defiance.

Graph: Thailand's Election Commission reported the abysmal voter turnout in 2014, compared with 2011, showing a resounding loss of confidence in both the ruling regime and the "democratic process" it has highjacked to grant itself otherwise nonexistent credibility and legitimacy. The turnouts only tell part of the story, since many who did vote, did so simply to deface their ballots or check "no vote" in an alternative form of protest against the regime. (Graphic via The Nation).

....

Unable to govern in Bangkok, Yingluck Shinawtra and her minders have been on the move, receiving harassment even in the north - once considered their unassailable stronghold. The likelihood of the regime being able to establish an alternative "capital" is slim to none - with voter turnout in February even in Shinawatra "strongholds" at all time lows.

A civil war requires a divided nation. In Thailand today, the nation appears to be more united than ever - against Thaksin Shinawatra and his crumbling political machine. Recently, the regime's deputy secretary-general to the prime minister and "red-shirt" leader Suporn Attawong claimed he was assembling a 600,000-strong "pro-government Democracy Protection Volunteers Group," as reported by the Bangkok Post's article, "Red shirt hardliner seeks 600,000 men." With the regime failing utterly to fill even a single stadium in Bangkok to counter massive and prolonged anti-regime protests, the prospect of assembling an able-bodied army of 600,000 men is absurd.

These are the last gasps of a desperate regime backed by foreign interests who have nothing to lose by continuing to push on, no matter what the odds. While the prospects of large "red armies" and "civil war" are used to inspire fear and despair across the growing number of Thaksin Shinawatra's opponents, at most, "hardline" supporters of the regime number a few thousand and would be easily overwhelmed by Thailand's formidable military.

Graph: Up from 62% the year before, the public perception of the military as an important independent institution stood at 63%. Even in in the regime's rural strongholds, support stood at 61%. The only individually polled group that did show majority support for the military, was the regime's tiny "red" minority, but even among them, 30% still supported the army.

....

What is likely to happen instead (and has already to a degree unfolded already), is a large scale terror campaign dressed up as a "popular uprising," in hopes of being spun long enough to allow the ousted regime to seek political recognition and perhaps even protection from its Western backers. But even this would appear to be a gamble as the regime stumbles over its own incompetence to a greater degree each day - and with a respected national military most likely well aware of the plan and fully prepared to disrupt it.

Edited May 10, 2014 by Hobiecat

[Showbags]

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

It's not a "wounded administration". It's dead, Jim.

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

But not as we know it.

[Thaiisnotrequired]

Is it any wonder the reds are angry.

Yellow shirts agenda is keep the reds down, they dont like the future with the reds having more money and more education, the yellows are elitist and will do anything to keep the reds in poverty, or let me say the majority Issan reds.

civil war???

strong reds v mamby pamby yellow white faces

My family have lived in a red village for 5 years

and they think you are total BS in posting

My Thai wife has a Masters degree and owns 2 businesses, she is now looking a buying a house in Hua Hin

That sort of bursts your bubble doesn't it

lol. Don't act like you don't know that the majority of reds are poor. Your wife is a minority among the reds and you know it.

You just couldn't help but fulfill the stereotype of the "Poster who likes to bring up that his wife is successful at any possible moment".

That's a rather sharp response, don't you think?

The stereotype poster? Do you think everybody is married to a bar girl, or is that your own rhetoric being spawned?

My wife was red, indoctrinated in Ubon Ratchatani, until the age of 18. She was an A grade in all subjects, and left home, after being walloped by her father, for reusing to work the fields, but come to study her degree in Bangkok single handedly. She made her own way, rejected by family, worked all the hours god sends whilst studying, yet never worked in the field you refer to. Never once considered the option.

She got educated, also with a Master's, and is now a lecturer at the best Uni in Thailand, which I don't need to name... as Chalerm would say... it begins with C.

Before I met her, which was at a UnIversity dinner, at which I was invited to give a speech, she had been single and working to achieve her own, and she owned her own home, car, had savings over a million Baht in her own bank account.

Of course, during all this time she became aware of goings on, and is now an adamant supporter of anything ANTI=Thaksin.

Why would you make an assumption that anybody from Esan, or red families, remains as such? Yes, she was poor, but she made her own.. and there are many who do, and don't remain poor...... so go suck on your assumptions... you insult a lot of good people!

[zydeco]

I guess Jatuporn must scream out more and more extreme statements just to get noticed. His little rally out here appears to be fizzling just like the last one. Hardly anybody has even noticed these UDDer fools. What's he going to do next? Threaten to invade Mars?

[patjem]

Not could but will....

I doubt it.... When they don't get paid, they don't turn up, and the notorious Khun_T won't part with that much money for that to happen

[Piichai]

The senior Democrat politician Korn is also on record as saying that vote buying no longer determines election results and that indeed in the last valid election his party spent more on vote buying than did PT.

You might want to go and find the original quote. Korn did not say he bought votes.

[love1012]

If it takes a civil war for the majority of the population to retain their civil rights then so be it.

the majority meaning those bribed and threatened into voting for the puppet master? lets get the Shinawatras out THEN we can have a democratic election!! OR we can watch the red shirt body count from the army!!

[nottocus]

If it takes a civil war for the majority of the population to retain their civil rights then so be it.

The majority of the population do not want a civil war. Just a few nuts who are mostly on Thaksin's payroll.

And not forgetting a few nuts on here who also relish that thought.

That's the scary part reading some of these posts....some of the fruit loops on TV actually want a civil war to occur

Would make for good TV.

[Just1Voice]

The senior Democrat politician Korn is also on record as saying that vote buying no longer determines election results and that indeed in the last valid election his party spent more on vote buying than did PT.

You might want to go and find the original quote. Korn did not say he bought votes.

You're half right. I saw the interview, and read the transcripts from it. He didn't say "he" bought votes, he said the Democratic party spent more on vote buying than the PTP, and they still lost, so, in his opinion "vote buying" had/has no bearing on the final vote count.

[love1012]

Is it any wonder the reds are angry.

Yellow shirts agenda is keep the reds down, they dont like the future with the reds having more money and more education, the yellows are elitist and will do anything to keep the reds in poverty, or let me say the majority Issan reds.

civil war???

strong reds v mamby pamby yellow white faces

My family have lived in a red village for 5 years

and they think you are total BS in posting

My Thai wife has a Masters degree and owns 2 businesses, she is now looking a buying a house in Hua Hin

That sort of bursts your bubble doesn't it

lol. Don't act like you don't know that the majority of reds are poor. Your wife is a minority among the reds and you know it.

You just couldn't help but fulfill the stereotype of the "Poster who likes to bring up that his wife is successful at any possible moment".

That's a rather sharp response, don't you think?

The stereotype poster? Do you think everybody is married to a bar girl, or is that your own rhetoric being spawned?

My wife was red, indoctrinated in Ubon Ratchatani, until the age of 18. She was an A grade in all subjects, and left home, after being walloped by her father, for reusing to work the fields, but come to study her degree in Bangkok single handedly. She made her own way, rejected by family, worked all the hours god sends whilst studying, yet never worked in the field you refer to. Never once considered the option.

She got educated, also with a Master's, and is now a lecturer at the best Uni in Thailand, which I don't need to name... as Chalerm would say... it begins with C.

Before I met her, which was at a UnIversity dinner, at which I was invited to give a speech, she had been single and working to achieve her own, and she owned her own home, car, had savings over a million Baht in her own bank account.

Of course, during all this time she became aware of goings on, and is now an adamant supporter of anything ANTI=Thaksin.

Why would you make an assumption that anybody from Esan, or red families, remains as such? Yes, she was poor, but she made her own.. and there are many who do, and don't remain poor...... so go suck on your assumptions... you insult a lot of good people!

Good for you - I also came from a very poor family and did the same as your wife. My husband helped me - but i was never going to sit in the rice field and wait for a Shinawatra handout!!! The people in Isan HAVE choices. They are NOT kept down they can come to Bangkok and get cheap University degrees and work for legitimate businesses just like anywhere in the world why should we keep a wanted criminal dictator to give them handouts and call it democracy - no other country does!! Im shocked that western posters would advocate Thailand becoming a Shinawatra nanny state after all he's done. WE ARE BETTER than that!!

[tezzainoz]

If it takes a civil war for the majority of the population to retain their civil rights then so be it.

The majority of the population do not want a civil war. Just a few nuts who are mostly on Thaksin's payroll.

The majority of the population want their democratic vote, after having it stripped from them.... again... Because they just won't vote in the 'correct' people, d@mn them.

I would like to see an election where only people that pay taxes, eligible students and senior citizens get to vote. The results would be astounding I'm sure.

So, you would completely ignore and disenfranchise the millions of rice farmers, tuk-tuk and taxi drivers, the millions of street vendors and mom & pop businesses who pay little to no tax, and who never had the opportunity to get a higher education? In other words, the OVERWHELMING MAJORITY of Thai citizens. Seems like I heard something like this a few years ago. Only those with a Bachelor's Degree could vote. Oh, yeah. PAD leader Sondhi Limthongkul. You related to him by any chance?

.................

Even I not agree with his posting, I see you twisted every thing he said

"""""1st he said People who pay taxes""""

So that includes

rice farmers,

tuk-tuk

taxi drivers, t

millions of street vendors

mom & pop businesses

I hope you not saying all these people break the law and not pay taxes

He then went on to say

""""eligible students and senior citizens get to vote"""

That inluses a massive amount of people

no w again I am not in agreement with his posting

But I hate people who twist other people words to say something he never said

[Soutpeel]

Would make for good TV.

It would give TV's resident whingers, on all things Thai, something to really whine about...me thinks

All TV's EX-SAS/CIA/Navy seals members could talk military tactic's

All TV Ex Vietnam "Vets" could reminisce "When I was in nam"

TV's resident CSI can discuss cause of death for the combatants

Etc etc

[Sattahip2014]

Wednesday, Thursday, Friday ....1, 2, 3...... PTP GONE.

Wednesday ...Yingluck and Cabinet gone.

Thursday ......Yingluck double gone

Friday New Senate with more than 3/5 th majority

= PTP GONE.

The Senate is the only elected body left standing and therefore is in control of Thailand.

PTP must fade away or go to jail

[tezzainoz]

So Jatuporn is now officially threatening the security of the state by promising a civil war. Isn't it time for the army to step in and protect the state, as they are sworn to do?

Yes they should have removed the treasonous Suthep & his hired violent mob long ago.

So we know know by there posting who are against a fair new election and a more democratic Thailand

Just another name added to the list

We who? You are making YOUR supposition, and you should speak for yourself.

Your post not make sense

all I said is we can now know who are against Fair elections

and I think by the amount of notes "I like Your Post" shows There are many others who feel the same

But as we practice free speech here unlike the PTP and red shirts you can have your own list

[Piichai]

The senior Democrat politician Korn is also on record as saying that vote buying no longer determines election results and that indeed in the last valid election his party spent more on vote buying than did PT.

You might want to go and find the original quote. Korn did not say he bought votes.

You're half right. I saw the interview, and read the transcripts from it. He didn't say "he" bought votes, he said the Democratic party spent more on vote buying than the PTP, and they still lost, so, in his opinion "vote buying" had/has no bearing on the final vote count.

No, he said the Democrats spent more money. There was no mention of vote buying.

[mrtoad]

Jatuporn should be in jail, clearly again breaching his bail conditions. The little fat bastard loves string up a fight, but when the violence gets going he's hiding away stuffing his face with food.

Nice to see Pipkins is back under another new name

[philw]

Is it any wonder the reds are angry.

Yellow shirts agenda is keep the reds down, they dont like the future with the reds having more money and more education, the yellows are elitist and will do anything to keep the reds in poverty, or let me say the majority Issan reds.

civil war???

strong reds v mamby pamby yellow white faces

My family have lived in a red village for 5 years

and they think you are total BS in posting

My Thai wife has a Masters degree and owns 2 businesses, she is now looking a buying a house in Hua Hin

That sort of bursts your bubble doesn't it

Oh dear, how very petite bourgeoisie.....

Is this relevant ?

[tezzainoz]

These repeated warnings of dire consequences from the red shirts have a whiff of desperation about them. They are in a corner and seem to know this. They have lost the battle of numbers because their core support is not motivated and seems divided. The momentum and the passion is with the other side. If the army took over tomorrow i doubt there would be much more than a few squeals. Time will tell i suppose.

Desperation or determination..................... to hang to their right to vote?

I have not read of any one who does not want the right to vote

But I know many who want to vote under a Fair Voting system

so please tell us are you for or against a fairer system than what PTP have now

The point many of us have made repeatedly (with citations) is that academic research shows that vote buying has not been a key factor in determining recent Thai general election results. The latest study - admittedly by a fairly junior researcher - corroborates that finding.

http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2014/05/01/electoral-integrity-in-thailand/

The senior Democrat politician Korn is also on record as saying that vote buying no longer determines election results and that indeed in the last valid election his party spent more on vote buying than did PT.

So what is the problem the reforms are designed to fix? If there is no vote buying problem, then what can be changed which would make PTP less likely to win? Perhaps, for instance, it is about the kinds of (populist) policies a party is allowed to put forward or the qualifications of the voters. What worries me is that reform actually means bending the rules to achieve a change in power.

I notice that you say your family lived in a red village, without indicating that that included yourself. In the past I too lived in what is effectively a red village in central Isaan full time for 15 months, although at present I do so for only a couple of months per year. All I can say is that our views seem very different.

sorry to burst you bubble

1) at not time did I say I live in a red village

Red Village = where the people support the red shirts

I thought that was obvious

I said in the north of Thailand which is a re area

so if you live in a red villiage I am sure the feelings would be different

2) You seem to think vote buying is the only problem so time to educate you

Freedom of Speach by all Thais in all places

Unless an election is fair, it can not be democratic.

Government supporters continued to threaten independent organisations, the people and political parties which opposed it. and the police fail to perform their duties.

While Ms Yingluck was in power she has never called for the pro-government and red-shirt demonstrators to behave, suggesting that she supported the actions of these same redshirt demonstrators.

Thai People have witnessed red-shirt demonstrators threaten other party members without facing arrest.

The Democrat Party has also been threatened, many times if they want to campaign in Issan

During the 2005 general election, a political canvasser belonging to his party in Phichit province had been told to stop his campaigning.

When the threat was ignored, the canvasser was shot dead in front of his house three days before the election. Police have still not arrested any suspects

In 2014 things are even worse. Anti-government demonstrators were being ambushed on a main Hyway and no suspects had been arrested.

Under these circumstances, No other party but the PTP is safe to campaign for votes in the North East of Thailand

A survey of potential candidates nationwide found that 80% had no safe place to campaign for votes, except those in the South, Bangkok and parts of the Central Plains.

So, is this is what you call a democratic Free Election, is it fair if only one political party can campaign for votes but others cannot?

[AleG]

The senior Democrat politician Korn is also on record as saying that vote buying no longer determines election results and that indeed in the last valid election his party spent more on vote buying than did PT.

You might want to go and find the original quote. Korn did not say he bought votes.

You're half right. I saw the interview, and read the transcripts from it. He didn't say "he" bought votes, he said the Democratic party spent more on vote buying than the PTP, and they still lost, so, in his opinion "vote buying" had/has no bearing on the final vote count.

No, it's still a lie, he said they spent more in the electoral campaign, not in vote buying.

[mrtoad]

Afternoon Pipkins, nice to see you back dear boy.

[ChoakMyDee]

I don't understand why the reds waited so long to start protesting in Bangkok. I mean, they waited until Suthep dismantled their government before they decoded to do something about it. So now they are.having a rally on the outskirts of Bangkok, which is going to achieve very little. I wonder if there is something going on behind the scene we're not privy to?

Sent from my GT-I9300 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[zydeco]

Is it any wonder the reds are angry.

Yellow shirts agenda is keep the reds down, they dont like the future with the reds having more money and more education, the yellows are elitist and will do anything to keep the reds in poverty, or let me say the majority Issan reds.

civil war???

strong reds v mamby pamby yellow white faces

My family have lived in a red village for 5 years

and they think you are total BS in posting

My Thai wife has a Masters degree and owns 2 businesses, she is now looking a buying a house in Hua Hin

That sort of bursts your bubble doesn't it

Oh dear, how very petite bourgeoisie.....

Is this relevant ?

Get a grip, Fidel. People don't need to work in the sugarcane fields to have a connection to life's struggles.

[BlueNoseCodger]

Wow, last time I was there, was April 5th and it was a low density crowd, that peaked for the evening speeches at 50k.

Yeh, I was at that rally. I was about 700m from the front stage on the left (I'm the one in red ), sadly this also meant I was away and didn't have a computer and internet. I've only had full internet for the last few days, and been on 3G smartphone.

Peak was about 8:30pm-10pm on first day, I estimate about 50k (based on density, it was a 1.25km road, with about 2x25m wide sections, so lets say 20m+20m to allow for a bit for stalls and toilets. Low density crowd, the Bangkokpost and Nation drone photos look like a high density 4/m2 but that was density near the front stage and each of the repeater TV screens, between these it was sparse, so overall go for the low density 1/m2 = 1* 40*1250 = 50k tops.

There were some in the park, and some in the east side of the road, but I'm taking those as 0, well at least small enough not to significantly affect a total.

During the quiet of Sunday afternoon it was sparse, 5k to 10k tops. That group was the people who came from Issan, Chiang Mai and some from the South. They had come far for the whole weekend and were camping in the park. During the night it filled up with Central and Bangkok folk (I ask about 20 people, none were Burmese or Cambodia).

Now it's 6pm and it's already full and far far denser.

And not 1 per m2, those walkways across the canal are about 1m wide, thats more like 3-4 people/m2.

The overspill areas is in the top where the circle is, and the east side of Aska road. How many do they have in those?

They've changed the format too, the left side has no stalls now.

1.25km road * (25+20) * 4 people/m2 = 225,000

[Som wat]

If it takes a civil war for the majority of the population to retain their civil rights then so be it.

What civil rights

The people where thrown out by a legal court

and please tell me when you did a count and how, to make your statement "the majority of the population " true

are you for or against the 3 main principles of reform

No 1) we need freedom of speech by all parties in all areas

No 2) Section 102 Enforced

A person under any of the following prohibitions shall have no right to be a candidate in an election of members of the House of Representatives:

(6) having been expelled, dismissed or removed from the official service, a State agency or a State enterprise on the ground of dishonest performance of duties or corruption;

3) All parties yellow and red to abide by the rule of law

seems to me this reform applies to both sides

No 1) we need freedom of speech by all parties in all areas

So Lese Majeste laws are to be completely removed?

A person under any of the following prohibitions shall have no right to be a candidate in an election of members of the House of Representatives:

(6) having been expelled, dismissed or removed from the official service, a State agency or a State enterprise on the ground of dishonest performance of duties or corruption;

On previous convictions (and non-convictions) of lobsided, politically motivated rulings, motivated from higher beings? Bit unfair that, wouldn't you say.

[Soutpeel]

I don't understand why the reds waited so long to start protesting in Bangkok. I mean, they waited until Suthep dismantled their government before they decoded to do something about it. So now they are.having a rally on the outskirts of Bangkok, which is going to achieve very little. I wonder if there is something going on behind the scene we're not privy to?

Sent from my GT-I9300 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

They were waiting for the cheque from Dubai to clear

[Morch]

Wow, last time I was there, was April 5th and it was a low density crowd, that peaked for the evening speeches at 50k.

Yeh, I was at that rally. I was about 700m from the front stage on the left (I'm the one in red ), sadly this also meant I was away and didn't have a computer and internet. I've only had full internet for the last few days, and been on 3G smartphone.

Peak was about 8:30pm-10pm on first day, I estimate about 50k (based on density, it was a 1.25km road, with about 2x25m wide sections, so lets say 20m+20m to allow for a bit for stalls and toilets. Low density crowd, the Bangkokpost and Nation drone photos look like a high density 4/m2 but that was density near the front stage and each of the repeater TV screens, between these it was sparse, so overall go for the low density 1/m2 = 1* 40*1250 = 50k tops.

There were some in the park, and some in the east side of the road, but I'm taking those as 0, well at least small enough not to significantly affect a total.

During the quiet of Sunday afternoon it was sparse, 5k to 10k tops. That group was the people who came from Issan, Chiang Mai and some from the South. They had come far for the whole weekend and were camping in the park. During the night it filled up with Central and Bangkok folk (I ask about 20 people, none were Burmese or Cambodia).

Now it's 6pm and it's already full and far far denser.

aska-font.jpg

And not 1 per m2, those walkways across the canal are about 1m wide, thats more like 3-4 people/m2.

The overspill areas is in the top where the circle is, and the east side of Aska road. How many do they have in those?

aksa-back.jpg

They've changed the format too, the left side has no stalls now.

1.25km road * (25+20) * 4 people/m2 = 225,000

Oh dear, here we go again....

[Som wat]

I don't understand why the reds waited so long to start protesting in Bangkok. I mean, they waited until Suthep dismantled their government before they decoded to do something about it.

Sent from my GT-I9300 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

They were here.

Stationed in Ramkamhaeng, in the stadium.

Then the attacks came, with loss of life. It could have gone one of two ways, a massive, massive full on battle with massive loss of life and possible civil war, or they be the bigger men and respect human life and human rights and leave.

Luckily the leaders were bigger men, and lead them out of the city.

[Sattahip2014]

I don't understand why the reds waited so long to start protesting in Bangkok. I mean, they waited until Suthep dismantled their government before they decoded to do something about it. So now they are.having a rally on the outskirts of Bangkok, which is going to achieve very little. I wonder if there is something going on behind the scene we're not privy to?

Sent from my GT-I9300 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

They were waiting for the cheque from Dubai to clear

And for Thaksin of Arabia to arrive on his Camel.