Prayuth supports double-track project

[Tomtomtom69]

"The Pheu Thai government, which proposed a high-speed train project, claimed that China would build it for Thailand free of charge."

I don't recall that bit, surely the Chinese were willing to build their High-speed freight-line China-Singapore-via-Thailand, but then PTP decided it should be a passenger-network serving anywhere there were voters, and that Thailand should borrow 50-year loans to pay for it ?

I think you're right, I don't recall the Chinese saying, about the high-speed train, they were going to do it for free, but I remember some high 'government' representative saying the Chinese had agreed to be paid... in rice! LOL (maybe 'for free' here means at the value of rotten unsaleable rice)

I also remember the Chinese had agreed to be paid by rice.

However, as far as the OP goes, I don't remember any proposal by the Chinese to not only use their own labor, which begs the question, why!?! (there are plenty of cheaper Thais, Cambodians, Burmese and Laotians who could also build it BTW and Chinese laborers taking away Thai jobs is a legitimate fear in Thailand) nor have I previously heard any proposal for land next to the railway to be given to the Chinese, even if it were on a concessional basis and leased out, rather than sold (which would be illegal anyway as only Thais can own land). I have heard about such proposals being made with respect to the Lao sector, but as for the Thai sector one would have merely expected Chinese financial and engineering "assistance" meaning some sort of loan agreement whereby Chinese and Thai engineers oversee mostly local Thai skllled workers (and possibly Cambodian, Burmese and Lao laborers).

Anyway, it seems that the General has his priorities right - while I do see the HSR as a good project in principle, for now a greatly improved dual track service, which should be electrified should be built first.

The Vietnamese already agreed to abandon HSR a while ago, at least the original proposal and at least for now. Originally, the Chinese wanted to build a HSR link from Kunming to the nearest Vietnamese port in Haiphong, east of Hanoi. There was also a plan to extend this HSR down to Ho Chi Minh City and possibly via Phnom Penh to Bangkok and beyond, down to Malaysia and Singapore. The Vietnamese government turned down the Chinese plan, ostensibly due to fears of Chinese stealing jobs, taking land and security concerns. However, the most legitimate concern that they raised was: "who in our country would be able to afford a ticket on the HSR?" Obviously not many, given the relatively low incomes of Vietnamese despite a growing middle class in urban areas. Today there are still substantial numbers of mostly working class Vietnamese who can't even afford a ticket on the current, normal train service and thus travel by much more uncomfortable local bus services, which are also slower than the trains in Vietnam (in Thailand the roads are faster, but not in Vietnam). So I agree that in the case of Vietnam, HSR is some way off. Even in Thailand, a short line from Bangkok to the Eastern Seaboard, passing by Pattaya would make far more economic sense than a line to Kunming via Laos at this time.

[Tomtomtom69]

"You should ask yourselves whether you can accept a 50-year concession that would see more than 100,000 workers being brought to the country and the constructor insisting on land along the route for development."

I suspect this is the real reason. Whenever China does big infrastructure projects in other countries like Laos, Cambodia, Myanmar and even African countries they bring in Chinese laborers. Often times these laborers don't return to China and stay put whether they have a visa or not. The General is right to be concerned.

Exactly!

Refreshing to see a leader who says no to Chinese imperialism.

Also, going for double track instead of high-speed seems like better invested money.

I fully agree with both of you and of course the General. Thailand doesn't need 100,000 Chinese laborers working inside it's territory. It's China's problem that it can't generate enough employment for it's massive population. I have met numerous Chinese people underemployed in China - for example former engineers, factory workers etc. often quite young (in their mid-late 20s or 30s, no older than their early 40s) driving "black cabs" in places like Kunming, which basically means cars where drivers pick up illegal fares that are usually a bit higher than what registered cabs charge. These guys do an OK business given that there is a massive cab shortage in places like Kunming, where there are less than 10,000 cabs, compared to well in excess of 100,000 cabs in Bangkok. It's an unfortunate situation that these guys are in, but sovereign countries like Thailand need to protect their workforces from foreign workers. When it comes to labor shortages, Cambodian, Lao and Burmese workers already make up the shortfall in Thailand and if that weren't enough Vietnamese and Bangladeshis (Bengali) workers could also be enlisted if necessary (according to a plan raised a few months ago to hire 50,000 Bengalis for the fishing industry).

Double track is a far better form of investment for the future than this proposed HSR. As I've stated before, I agree with the HSR in principle (at least at some stage in the future), but the first line needs to be Bangkok to the Eastern Seaboard, not Bangkok to Kunming. I've travelled overland along most of the Bangkok-Vientiane-Boten-Jinghong-Kunming corridor. It's a lengthy journey that winds its way up and down mountains eventually reaching almost 2000m in elevation near Kunming, with relatively little population between Vientiane and Kunming. Difficult terrain, not to mention there is a lack of industry in that part of the world. Industry in Laos is minimal, and despite a growing economy will almost certainly never match even a fraction of Thai or Vietnamese levels. Yunnan province of China also has little industry and is somewhat of a Chinese backwater. Even with a HSR link from Yunnan to Guangdong where all the industry is, shipping via sea might still be more efficient and probably cheaper too. I think better roads, perhaps a decent normal speed rail link from China to Myanmar (which currently doesn't exist at all) might serve China better than what they are proposing with the HSR link via Laos to Thailand and beyond, that only middle and upper class Chinese, middle class Thais etc. who don't want to fly could afford anyway. Not to mention that this freight route they are seeking wouldn't make that much of a difference to transit times for goods coming out of Guangzhou unless the line extended all the way down to Singapore, or the Dawei deep sea port (via Bangkok) were established in time and supporting infrastructure were built (or alternatively a port near Yangon with all infrastructure built from Kunming to connect it to Yangon).

[Tomtomtom69]

Is'nt Prayuth getting a bit beyond himself, making decisions concerning the railways and the Chinese proposed Kra canal.

Surely he is there to sort the political situation, not planning of the country's logistical future.

Political leaders are also supposed to move a country forward in all areas, including infrastructure development right? So the General is certainly doing what he is supposed to be - setting some positive direction regarding infrastructure spending priorities. The Isthmus of Kra canal is not Chinese proposed either, it has been talked about for hundreds of years, although there was a recent report showing Chinese support for that project.

I remember the previous administrations continually changed their proposals regarding the HSR line. First it was Abhisit, "yes we'll take the Chinese option, a line from Kunming to Bangkok via Vientiane paid for by a loan transfer agreement". Then it was the Yingluck administration "we'll build a line to Chiang Mai, but initially only to Phitsanulok (what the hell for?!) because most of the money to complete the line to Chiang Mai will be siphoned off for us so we can't afford to build the whole line in one go".

With the General's direction, electrified dual track lines (and who knows, maybe a Bangkok to Rayong via Pattaya HSR line) and better road infrastructure may finally become a reality.

Previous governments haven't set the country on course for the future even in other areas of infrastructure development. Care to remember back to about 2004? That's when the Bangkok Post ran a short article about then Prime Minister Thaksin's proposal to build a whole cross-country network of expressways, for example, Bangkok to Sadao/Dan Nok on the Malaysian border, Bangkok to Vientiane, Bangkok to Mattaphut, Bangkok to Chiang Mai, Bangkok to Kanchanaburi etc.

How many expressways that are not part of the Bangkok expressway network does Thailand currently have, some 10 years later? A measly two: namely the Eastern Outer Ring Road (62km long) and the Bangkok-Chonburi Motorway with extension to Pattaya about 140km in length, which is in pretty bad shape after Chonburi to be honest. Whatever happened to these other projects? Has anyone seen any evidence of expressways being built outside of Bangkok? I certainly haven't and I travel by road regularly to all corners of Thailand.

[Ricardo]

Not to mention that this freight route they are seeking wouldn't make that much of a difference to transit times for goods coming out of Guangzhou unless the line extended all the way down to Singapore, or the Dawei deep sea port (via Bangkok) were established in time and supporting infrastructure were built (or alternatively a port near Yangon with all infrastructure built from Kunming to connect it to Yangon).

The Chinese plan was always for a high-speed freight-line which would run all-the-way to Singapore, to speed their exports to port, and one can understand the commercial logic of that.

[ratcatcher]

Not to mention that this freight route they are seeking wouldn't make that much of a difference to transit times for goods coming out of Guangzhou unless the line extended all the way down to Singapore, or the Dawei deep sea port (via Bangkok) were established in time and supporting infrastructure were built (or alternatively a port near Yangon with all infrastructure built from Kunming to connect it to Yangon).

The Chinese plan was always for a high-speed freight-line which would run all-the-way to Singapore, to speed their exports to port, and one can understand the commercial logic of that.

Does anybody have a picture of a High Speed Freight Train (HSFT)?

Plenty of pictures of HS passenger trains, but I've never seen a HSFT.

[Ricardo]

Not to mention that this freight route they are seeking wouldn't make that much of a difference to transit times for goods coming out of Guangzhou unless the line extended all the way down to Singapore, or the Dawei deep sea port (via Bangkok) were established in time and supporting infrastructure were built (or alternatively a port near Yangon with all infrastructure built from Kunming to connect it to Yangon).

The Chinese plan was always for a high-speed freight-line which would run all-the-way to Singapore, to speed their exports to port, and one can understand the commercial logic of that.

Does anybody have a picture of a High Speed Freight Train (HSFT)?

Plenty of pictures of HS passenger trains, but I've never seen a HSFT.

I think it would be an ordinary freight-train, carrying containers only, and running on standard-gauge at about 100 kph, no ?

Not one of those amazing American 3km-long double-stacked container-trains, or an Aussie coal/iron-ore train.

[Tomtomtom69]

Not to mention that this freight route they are seeking wouldn't make that much of a difference to transit times for goods coming out of Guangzhou unless the line extended all the way down to Singapore, or the Dawei deep sea port (via Bangkok) were established in time and supporting infrastructure were built (or alternatively a port near Yangon with all infrastructure built from Kunming to connect it to Yangon).

The Chinese plan was always for a high-speed freight-line which would run all-the-way to Singapore, to speed their exports to port, and one can understand the commercial logic of that.

I am well aware of that plan, but while it may go ahead eventually it is overly optimistic. Up until now the emphasis has always been on at least getting the line built to Bangkok, before an extension to Singapore is made sometime later. Still, I find this project is better than the proposed Isthmus of Kra canal project. Having said that, rail, particularly high speed rail is far more expensive than shipping by sea so I am not so sure that this project would really make any money.

Edited June 19, 2014 by Tomtomtom69

[Ricardo]

IIRC it was more about by-passing over-crowded Chinese ports, and getting containers directly into Singapore, one of the world's busiest container-hubs ? But perhaps those then-problems have already been solved ?

ASEAN were talking about Kunming-Singapore in 2000, and various later proposals have been made, according to Wikipedia. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kunming%E2%80%93Singapore_Railway

"The Central Route including the Bangkok to Singapore section will be 3,900 kilometres (2,400 mi) in length.^[3] When completed, a trip from Kunming to Singapore would take 10 hours by rail on the Central Route (compared to 72 hours from Vientiane to Singapore in April 2011).^{[3][14][15][16]} The line will be used to transport both passengers and cargo.^[4]" A 10-hour transit-time would seem extremely attractive, if achievable, but I agree with you that slower/less-expensive seems more likely.

But whether it makes money or not, that's basically for the people paying to decide, the Chinese ?

And the later reports of a Chinese trade-city, to be built on the outskirts of Bangkok, must surely raise fears of increased-competition for local-industry, if it goes-ahead ?

Then again, if Thai-companies can produce more-cheaply than China, it could be seen as an opportunity to plug-into their economy/system . This is one of the basic threats/opportunities which globalisation throws up IMO.

Edited June 19, 2014 by Ricardo

[doctorproc156]

IIRC it was more about by-passing over-crowded Chinese ports, and getting containers directly into Singapore, one of the world's busiest container-hubs ? But perhaps those then-problems have already been solved ?

ASEAN were talking about Kunming-Singapore in 2000, and various later proposals have been made, according to Wikipedia. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kunming%E2%80%93Singapore_Railway

"The Central Route including the Bangkok to Singapore section will be 3,900 kilometres (2,400 mi) in length.^[3] When completed, a trip from Kunming to Singapore would take 10 hours by rail on the Central Route (compared to 72 hours from Vientiane to Singapore in April 2011).^{[3][14][15][16]} The line will be used to transport both passengers and cargo.^[4]" A 10-hour transit-time would seem extremely attractive, if achievable, but I agree with you that slower/less-expensive seems more likely.

But whether it makes money or not, that's basically for the people paying to decide, the Chinese ?

And the later reports of a Chinese trade-city, to be built on the outskirts of Bangkok, must surely raise fears of increased-competition for local-industry, if it goes-ahead ?

Then again, if Thai-companies can produce more-cheaply than China, it could be seen as an opportunity to plug-into their economy/system . This is one of the basic threats/opportunities which globalisation throws up IMO.

IT doesn't have to go all the way down to Singapore anymore, once the China-Myannmar HSR and freight lines are done then that is all they need. All goods can be shipped westwards from Myannmar and from Malaysia down south, Singapore's downfall as a trading hub is almost certain.