Will Condo Prices In Bangkok Go Up Or Down?

[donx]

And they said it could never happen in Bangkok.............

Prices never fall in Bangkok.............

Property broker to offer 50 percent discount at 4 Bangkok condominium projects

by News Desk

Property broker and consultant Harrison has announced it will organise a grand sale offering discounts of up to 50 percent in an effort to close sales on 4 completed Bangkok projects that are already more than 80 percent sold.

http://www.property-report.com/property-ne...amp;date=250209

This is an auction with prices starting at 50% off the previous asking price. The actual discount will probably something much less. Nevertheless, I agree that these units will probably be sold at a discount. What that discount will be is anyone's guess. I'd be interested in seeing what the actual discounts end up being. If I were in Thailand during this time I would be tempted to attend the auction to see how willing they are at selling these units and to see how many people show any interest in buying.

[midas]

And they said it could never happen in Bangkok.............

Prices never fall in Bangkok.............

Property broker to offer 50 percent discount at 4 Bangkok condominium projects

by News Desk

Property broker and consultant Harrison has announced it will organise a grand sale offering discounts of up to 50 percent in an effort to close sales on 4 completed Bangkok projects that are already more than 80 percent sold.

http://www.property-report.com/property-ne...amp;date=250209

This is an auction with prices starting at 50% off the previous asking price. The actual discount will probably something much less. Nevertheless, I agree that these units will probably be sold at a discount. What that discount will be is anyone's guess. I'd be interested in seeing what the actual discounts end up being. If I were in Thailand during this time I would be tempted to attend the auction to see how willing they are at selling these units and to see how many people show any interest in buying.

If things are expected to get even worse in USA with predictions of the Dow reaching

3000 to 4000 how can anyone possibly know how this could further impact

the rest of the world's economies including Thailand?

There is nothing to suggest anyone should do anything other than sit back

and wait to see how this continues to unfold. Maybe this is only the beginning

[donx]

And they said it could never happen in Bangkok.............

Prices never fall in Bangkok.............

Property broker to offer 50 percent discount at 4 Bangkok condominium projects

by News Desk

Property broker and consultant Harrison has announced it will organise a grand sale offering discounts of up to 50 percent in an effort to close sales on 4 completed Bangkok projects that are already more than 80 percent sold.

http://www.property-report.com/property-ne...amp;date=250209

This is an auction with prices starting at 50% off the previous asking price. The actual discount will probably something much less. Nevertheless, I agree that these units will probably be sold at a discount. What that discount will be is anyone's guess. I'd be interested in seeing what the actual discounts end up being. If I were in Thailand during this time I would be tempted to attend the auction to see how willing they are at selling these units and to see how many people show any interest in buying.

If things are expected to get even worse in USA with predictions of the Dow reaching

3000 to 4000 how can anyone possibly know how this could further impact

the rest of the world's economies including Thailand?

There is nothing to suggest anyone should do anything other than sit back

and wait to see how this continues to unfold. Maybe this is only the beginning

Maybe it is only the beginning. Maybe it is near the end. Neither you nor I know for certain. I don't know how much the condos that are being auctioned were selling for originally, but I'd still be interested in knowing that as well as how much they end up selling for in the auction.

[midas]

And they said it could never happen in Bangkok.............

Prices never fall in Bangkok.............

Property broker to offer 50 percent discount at 4 Bangkok condominium projects

by News Desk

Property broker and consultant Harrison has announced it will organise a grand sale offering discounts of up to 50 percent in an effort to close sales on 4 completed Bangkok projects that are already more than 80 percent sold.

http://www.property-report.com/property-ne...amp;date=250209

This is an auction with prices starting at 50% off the previous asking price. The actual discount will probably something much less. Nevertheless, I agree that these units will probably be sold at a discount. What that discount will be is anyone's guess. I'd be interested in seeing what the actual discounts end up being. If I were in Thailand during this time I would be tempted to attend the auction to see how willing they are at selling these units and to see how many people show any interest in buying.

If things are expected to get even worse in USA with predictions of the Dow reaching

3000 to 4000 how can anyone possibly know how this could further impact

the rest of the world's economies including Thailand?

There is nothing to suggest anyone should do anything other than sit back

and wait to see how this continues to unfold. Maybe this is only the beginning

Maybe it is only the beginning. Maybe it is near the end. Neither you nor I know for certain. I don't know how much the condos that are being auctioned were selling for originally, but I'd still be interested in knowing that as well as how much they end up selling for in the auction.

It is very true that neither you nor I know for certain-but what we do know is that economic fundamentals all around the world are continuing

to deteriorate on a daily basis. Without anyone knowing whether this is going to ultimately affect Thailand as economies like

Japan fall deeper into recession / depression , what reasons are there to suggest economic conditions will not worsen here also?

Edited March 4, 2009 by midas

[jumnien]

With the new stimulus package and Obama's brains fully engaged on solving the financial problems, the world economy stands poised to recover. The Thai property market stands ready in position to lead the rapid recovery. Best to grab properties now before its too late!

[midas]

UP or DOWN .........just dont make the same mistake as this guy

DENVER - He bought his first home, poured $30,000.00 into it to fix up, now 6 months later Jonathon Kyte has learned his home doesn't belong to him.

"I froze, I just pointed at it, my wife was there, we were just speechless."

According to the city and county of Denver, Jonathon owns the dump, next door. He found out about the mistake almost by accident when he recieved a map which showed the unit he's living is actually unit number 4.

But he owns the deed and title to unit number 5. Jonathon blames the Coldwell Banker listing agent for the mistake. She marketed the property and provided the key to the unit Jonathon and wife have been living in. He called the listing agent again and again but she wouldn't return his calls. He also called the title company, " Colorado American Title, " and an employee promised to get back to him, but never did.

So Jonathon called Fox 31 News. We confronted the listing agent's supervisor, but he would not comment on camera. He said their lawyers were looking into it.

Jonathon is now considered a squatter in the condo --he thought he bought.

And all the people who were so willing to sell it to him, are unwilling to help

http://www.kdvr.com/news/kdvr-wrongcondo-0...0,6904039.story

[hhgz]

Ha! In a business law class we argued pros and cons about a swimming pool company that accidentally installed a pool in the wrong yard. The family was on vacation and, when they got home, the swimming pool was filled with water. Opps!

[mjohnson282]

For all that voted prices will go up what assumptions did you use for your forecast?

At your own peril prospecitve condo buyers can ignore the massive amount of "global" deleveraging and the very real possibility of sustain deflation which combine suggests a prolonged period of price declines across all asset classes. So the over supplied Bangkok market will somehow avoid this trend? Perhaps you should syndicate a few of the many failed condo projects I see dotting the Bangkok skyline. In your due diligence/feasibility study you may want to look at the condo projects in your competitive market at night and take note of the absence of lights illuminated in the new construction subset suggesting the physical occupancy is quite low. (side note: if you do any sort of due diligence may be the first).

And now it appears we are entering a period of competitive devaluation, while that would typically make condo purchases more attractive it will certainly not be favorable for those many BKK owners that are landlords and not occupants. Repatriating a devalued baht will only add to the burden of an absentee owner and therefore increase the incentive to reduce price and sell.

As for the Thai economy on a macro level, it is an export led economy and last I checked in a recession/depression export led economies suffer the greatest. You are right that you will not follow the US, actually it will be much worse.

[midas]

Yes indeed mjohnson It is funny how you dont hear much now from the idiots

that claimed prices would be unaffected again

[quiksilva]

You do realise that this thread is out of date?

Will Condo Prices In Bangkok Go Up Or Down?, HOW MUCH?

Condo prices in BKK, 2 years outlook

Thaihome's responses to someone who dragged up this thread from the long dead graveyard were spot on.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?s=...t&p=2511591

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?s=...t&p=2511931

Why this discussion is still going now five pages after his comments, I'll never know.

Of course the outlook is different now, but if we want a new thread forecasting prices over the next two years, please go ahead.

This thread should have been closed 5 pages ago.

[mjohnson282]

Actually I just read it since I am in BKK now looking at what appears to be a market turning significantly down. Sorry I did not get your email declaring this thread is dead. Of course its a little more than ironic that you are posting in a what you term a dead thread.

In two years prices will be down a minimum of 15-20% from today. There you go! If you are an owner occupant and you like where you live it should not matter. On the other hand, if you were buying for a yield or worse yet as a pure speculator trying to flip and unit or two good luck.

What happens when increasing supply meets decreasing demand for a speculative asset class. You have a bursting bubble.

There are probably a lot of real estate investors not familiar with the greater fool theory? Unfortunately they are about to learn an expensive lesson.

You do realise that this thread is out of date?

Will Condo Prices In Bangkok Go Up Or Down?, HOW MUCH?

Condo prices in BKK, 2 years outlook

Thaihome's responses to someone who dragged up this thread from the long dead graveyard were spot on.

Why this discussion is still going now five pages after his comments, I'll never know.

Of course the outlook is different now, but if we want a new thread forecasting prices over the next two years, please go ahead.

This thread should have been closed 5 pages ago.

[midas]

Actually I just read it since I am in BKK now looking at what appears to be a market turning significantly down. Sorry I did not get your email declaring this thread is dead. Of course its a little more than ironic that you are posting in a what you term a dead thread.

In two years prices will be down a minimum of 15-20% from today. There you go! If you are an owner occupant and you like where you live it should not matter. On the other hand, if you were buying for a yield or worse yet as a pure speculator trying to flip and unit or two good luck.

What happens when increasing supply meets decreasing demand for a speculative asset class. You have a bursting bubble.

There are probably a lot of real estate investors not familiar with the greater fool theory? Unfortunately they are about to learn an expensive lesson.

There is no reason to close this thread just because it took longer than anticipated

for all this to set in ?

All the real estate " bulls " are going to be very embarassed about their past comments

when all this is over including so called " experts " - that is why they want to close the thread down now !!

Edited March 30, 2009 by midas

[donx]

Actually I just read it since I am in BKK now looking at what appears to be a market turning significantly down. Sorry I did not get your email declaring this thread is dead. Of course its a little more than ironic that you are posting in a what you term a dead thread.

In two years prices will be down a minimum of 15-20% from today. There you go! If you are an owner occupant and you like where you live it should not matter. On the other hand, if you were buying for a yield or worse yet as a pure speculator trying to flip and unit or two good luck.

What happens when increasing supply meets decreasing demand for a speculative asset class. You have a bursting bubble.

There are probably a lot of real estate investors not familiar with the greater fool theory? Unfortunately they are about to learn an expensive lesson.

You do realise that this thread is out of date?

Will Condo Prices In Bangkok Go Up Or Down?, HOW MUCH?

Condo prices in BKK, 2 years outlook

Thaihome's responses to someone who dragged up this thread from the long dead graveyard were spot on.

Why this discussion is still going now five pages after his comments, I'll never know.

Of course the outlook is different now, but if we want a new thread forecasting prices over the next two years, please go ahead.

This thread should have been closed 5 pages ago.

It's not a dead thread, but you need to read the responses in the appropriate context. Since this thread was started in Septemper of 2006, the question was (and still is) whether condo prices in Bangkok will (or did) increase or decrease and by how much between September 2006 and September 2008. Anyone responding to the poll now should not be guessing the next two years. They should be stating what actually happened between September 2006 and September 2008.

[midas]

It's not a dead thread, but you need to read the responses in the appropriate context. Since this thread was started in Septemper of 2006, the question was (and still is) whether condo prices in Bangkok will (or did) increase or decrease and by how much between September 2006 and September 2008. Anyone responding to the poll now should not be guessing the next two years. They should be stating what actually happened between September 2006 and September 2008.

I wouldn't be surprised if research showed values did increase during that period ( i.e. Sept2006 -Sept2008 )

just as they did in many economies around the world. But now we know that was all totally unsustainable.

And no matter how much your notional gain may have been during that period, what good is that

if you will not be able to find a buyer these days to liquidate your investment if you need to?

[trogers]

I wouldn't be surprised if research showed values did increase during that period ( i.e. Sept2006 -Sept2008 )

just as they did in many economies around the world. But now we know that was all totally unsustainable.

And no matter how much your notional gain may have been during that period, what good is that

if you will not be able to find a buyer these days to liquidate your investment if you need to?

Property prices will climb more than 10% per annum starting first quarter of 2010.

Reason: - it will take a few quarters for the Multiplier to take effect from all the extra printed money the world over.

[midas]

Property prices will climb more than 10% per annum starting first quarter of 2010.

Reason: - it will take a few quarters for the Multiplier to take effect from all the extra printed money the world over.

Property prices where? Thailand, USA, UK , Timbuktu?

I dont share your optimism about your multiplier theory.

Even if there is more printed money floating around I don't think people

will be in such speculative mood again for a long time plus we will see a return to very conservative

loan to income ratios when assessing mortgage applications not the 5 times or 7 times

income of recent years. On top of that

we are still seeing a continual shedding of jobs worldwide so people

will remain fearful for a long time

[trogers]

Even if there is more printed money floating around I don't think people

will be in such speculative mood again for a long time plus we will see a return to very conservative

loan to income ratios when assessing mortgage applications not the 5 times or 7 times

income of recent years. On top of that

we are still seeing a continual shedding of jobs worldwide so people

will remain fearful for a long time

How far apart was the Tom Yum Kung crisis, the NASDAQ bubble and the sub-prime fiasco? Time to build a bubble and then pop it?

[midas]

How far apart was the Tom Yum Kung crisis, the NASDAQ bubble and the sub-prime fiasco? Time to build a bubble and then pop it?

You must be joking? Chalk and cheese. None of those events involved a synchronized downturn of all

global economies with no end yet in sight

[JimmyConway]

If we could all predict the future we would all be millionaires.

[trogers]

If we could all predict the future we would all be millionaires.

Yup, and the next bubble to pop will be the gold bubble - I estimate within the last quarter of this year.

Back in the 80s and early 90s, bubbles tend to be isolated in region or country. With the introduction of global finance and quick free flow of funds around the world, bubbles form quicker and have greater impact. The last 3 bubbles will created and popped by global finance all within a time span of 10 years - 1998-2007.

[midas]

If we could all predict the future we would all be millionaires.

Yup, and the next bubble to pop will be the gold bubble - I estimate within the last quarter of this year.

Back in the 80s and early 90s, bubbles tend to be isolated in region or country. With the introduction of global finance and quick free flow of funds around the world, bubbles form quicker and have greater impact. The last 3 bubbles will created and popped by global finance all within a time span of 10 years - 1998-2007.

I disagree because the " global finance and quick free flow of funds" you keep refering

to are going to be subject to much srticter criteria and the unemployment rate is still going up

No one needs to predict you just need to extrapolate-and as this thread is specifically about condominiums

in Bangkok -not gold -I cannot see anything to suggest the condominium market

is going to be particularly strong here in the foreseeable future

Edited March 31, 2009 by midas

[quiksilva]

Actually I just read it since I am in BKK now looking at what appears to be a market turning significantly down. Sorry I did not get your email declaring this thread is dead. Of course its a little more than ironic that you are posting in a what you term a dead thread.

In two years prices will be down a minimum of 15-20% from today. There you go! If you are an owner occupant and you like where you live it should not matter. On the other hand, if you were buying for a yield or worse yet as a pure speculator trying to flip and unit or two good luck.

What happens when increasing supply meets decreasing demand for a speculative asset class. You have a bursting bubble.

There are probably a lot of real estate investors not familiar with the greater fool theory? Unfortunately they are about to learn an expensive lesson.

You do realise that this thread is out of date?

Will Condo Prices In Bangkok Go Up Or Down?, HOW MUCH?

Condo prices in BKK, 2 years outlook

Thaihome's responses to someone who dragged up this thread from the long dead graveyard were spot on.

Why this discussion is still going now five pages after his comments, I'll never know.

Of course the outlook is different now, but if we want a new thread forecasting prices over the next two years, please go ahead.

This thread should have been closed 5 pages ago.

It's not a dead thread, but you need to read the responses in the appropriate context. Since this thread was started in Septemper of 2006, the question was (and still is) whether condo prices in Bangkok will (or did) increase or decrease and by how much between September 2006 and September 2008. Anyone responding to the poll now should not be guessing the next two years. They should be stating what actually happened between September 2006 and September 2008.

Fair comment.

[trogers]

I cannot see anything to suggest the condominium market

is going to be particularly strong here in the foreseeable future

Inflation, my man...the fall in value of money, the rise in value of real asset - esp after the gold bubble burst.

[midas]

I cannot see anything to suggest the condominium market

is going to be particularly strong here in the foreseeable future

Inflation, my man...the fall in value of money, the rise in value of real asset - esp after the gold bubble burst.

Oh no not another bloody estate agent

[mjohnson282]

I cannot see anything to suggest the condominium market

is going to be particularly strong here in the foreseeable future

Inflation, my man...the fall in value of money, the rise in value of real asset - esp after the gold bubble burst.

Oh no not another bloody estate agent

Inflation??? Where is it. Oh yeah its coming that's right. Central banks are doing everything they can to create inflation and its not working. If we are not in a depression we are certainly on the edge of it. Have you checked the velocity of money? Its not there and the central banks are extremely concerned trying everything including quantitative easing to increase credit flows and velocity. No evidence this has ever worked. The two constants of this global deleveraging have been, and continue to be, the underestimation of the the severity and duration of this process.

In a depression the price of all asset classes decline and this certainly includes an oversupplied condo market in a export driven developing economy. Real estate rebounds typically do not happen in a year or two much less 3 quarters. On top of all this you can add on the geo political issues in Thailand.

I suppose its possible there will be a few condo owners that hold vacant units and get their asking price 5+ years from now, but most would consider that a loss and not a gain. Opportunity cost of the money.

Half finished buildings, vacant develpment sites, and finished buildings that remain 90% vacant. Yep, I am convinced prices rebound in 2010.

[trogers]

Inflation??? Where is it. Oh yeah its coming that's right. Central banks are doing everything they can to create inflation and its not working. If we are not in a depression we are certainly on the edge of it. Have you checked the velocity of money? Its not there and the central banks are extremely concerned trying everything including quantitative easing to increase credit flows and velocity. No evidence this has ever worked. The two constants of this global deleveraging have been, and continue to be, the underestimation of the the severity and duration of this process.

In a depression the price of all asset classes decline and this certainly includes an oversupplied condo market in a export driven developing economy. Real estate rebounds typically do not happen in a year or two much less 3 quarters. On top of all this you can add on the geo political issues in Thailand.

I suppose its possible there will be a few condo owners that hold vacant units and get their asking price 5+ years from now, but most would consider that a loss and not a gain. Opportunity cost of the money.

Half finished buildings, vacant develpment sites, and finished buildings that remain 90% vacant. Yep, I am convinced prices rebound in 2010.

The smart investor is the one who invest counter cycle from the herd. With the amount of money being printed, inflation will come like a whip rather then creeping up. I am looking to see how many times gold prices can be above its cost of production - and when that bubble bursts, the money invested in this bubble will have to go somewhere, and definitely not into the planting of potatoes.

[badge]

Inflation, my man...the fall in value of money, the rise in value of real asset - esp after the gold bubble burst.

True, but theres no Inflation; theres Deflation...the fall in the value of assets, the rise in value of cash.

Typically if one believes in inflation, one should believe in Gold. Trillions in stimulus has been announced globally in Q1 '09; Gold rose 4.5%. Woof!

[badge]

If one loks at Property Price Trends, they're incredibly powerful. They trend very nicely. They do not 'turn on a dime' like more liquid asset classes like equities. When they are trending they trend for prolonged periods; only relevant in years.

Globally, average real estate prices are declining, and in some places collapsing. This trend is likely to continue for years. Bangkok will be no different.

[badge]

I would add, I dont currently believe the real estate price correction in Asia will be as pronounced as it is in Anglicised countries, however I could be wrong. Prices could drift lower for decades, as they have in Japan?

[trogers]

If one loks at Property Price Trends, they're incredibly powerful. They trend very nicely. They do not 'turn on a dime' like more liquid asset classes like equities. When they are trending they trend for prolonged periods; only relevant in years.

Globally, average real estate prices are declining, and in some places collapsing. This trend is likely to continue for years. Bangkok will be no different.

Trends are built on done deals. Problem is that in Thailand there are practically no sales - due to sticky prices. Project owners are not reducing prices and buyers are not purchasing in anticipation of lower prices. We all know that property prices should trend down when demand falls, and it should be trending down for over a year now since the sub-prime fiasco in late 2007.

Check out the trend lines for property prices of condo units that were completed and transferred over a year and within 2 years ago and you will get a better picture. Forget about newly completed projects and those still under construction.

Edited April 1, 2009 by trogers