Baht Continues Rally Against Dollar

[george]

Baht continues rally against dollar

BANGKOK: -- The Thai baht which has been strengthening over the past two weeks due to continued foreign capital inflows is expected to remain strong next week, according to a report issued by Kasikorn Research Centre.

The report said the baht closed at Bt36.67 against the dollar compared to Bt36.87 late last week--which was the highest in more than seven years due in part to an intervention by the Bank of Thailand attempting to put the brake on the strenghtening baht.

The baht also became stronger against the dollar this week following continued capital inflows while the dollar weakened following a poor performance of the US economy, it said.

The report said the baht is expected to move within the range of Bt36.40-36.80 per dollar next week on continued foreign capital inflows as traders keep a close watch on US employment data for October--which could assist the dollar to become strong, but only on the short-term.

Traders are also awaiting US trade figures for September to be released next week and the outcome of the British central bank meeting to be held Wednesday and Thursday in which it might raise interest rate and could pressure on the dollar against key currencies, the report said.

Economists have stated that a stronger baht will hurt exporters, whose income will be diluted when dollar income is converted to a lower amount of baht.

--TNA 2006-11-04

[chownah]

Anyone know which countries the money is coming form that is being invested in Thailand? Could China be parking part of its huge trade surplus dollars here?

[bri1guy]

So now is a good time to Deposit my into my thai account? Is it possible to deposit a check from the USA into my thai account, what exchange rate will I get and how long will it take to clear?

[Old Man River]

Anyone know which countries the money is coming form that is being invested in Thailand? Could China be parking part of its huge trade surplus dollars here?

Specifically, I can't say, but normally when a country becomes attractive, it attracts fund managers from different countries. I do know that fund managers out of the US have been saying that Thai securities were undervalued and when things "normalized", they would invest in the SET. Hence, part of the funds would most probably be from the US, but China makes a whole lot of sense as well.

[j_cheung]

The PBoC (People's Bank of China), the central bank in China, earlier had placed the Thai Baht as one of the basket currencies (alongside the Euro, etc.) in determining their managed "peg" to the USD. Could this be a further prelude to a continuing higher valuation of the Chinese Yuan (as well as the Baht)?

[Naam]

Anyone know which countries the money is coming form that is being invested in Thailand? Could China be parking part of its huge trade surplus dollars here?

Specifically, I can't say, but normally when a country becomes attractive, it attracts fund managers from different countries. I do know that fund managers out of the US have been saying that Thai securities were undervalued and when things "normalized", they would invest in the SET. Hence, part of the funds would most probably be from the US, but China makes a whole lot of sense as well.

that a part of china's trade surplus is parked here (and that by converting USD in THB) is highly unlikely. the reason to explain 'why not' would lead too far. but fund managers do indeed see value in thai stocks although the economic outlook/growth is not as rosy as it was recently. one can see that clearly in a 'long dated' chart going back ~12 years which shows the exuberance of the early 90s, the big downturn during the asian crisis a reasonable recovery but now flat for full three years.

[Old Man River]

Anyone know which countries the money is coming form that is being invested in Thailand? Could China be parking part of its huge trade surplus dollars here?

Specifically, I can't say, but normally when a country becomes attractive, it attracts fund managers from different countries. I do know that fund managers out of the US have been saying that Thai securities were undervalued and when things "normalized", they would invest in the SET. Hence, part of the funds would most probably be from the US, but China makes a whole lot of sense as well.

that a part of china's trade surplus is parked here (and that by converting USD in THB) is highly unlikely. the reason to explain 'why not' would lead too far. but fund managers do indeed see value in thai stocks although the economic outlook/growth is not as rosy as it was recently. one can see that clearly in a 'long dated' chart going back ~12 years which shows the exuberance of the early 90s, the big downturn during the asian crisis a reasonable recovery but now flat for full three years.

By China, I was thinking more of fund managers out of China than Chinese government investment. Then, now that I think of it, I am not sure how many fund managers there are in China that are not foreign companies anyway.

As it relates to Thailand, fund managers will move in and out of Thailand. When they move out, there will be a drop in the SET and the explanation from the SET is normally investors taking profits. Then, as long as the situation is viewed as stable, they will come back in and then out etc. Of course, the trick for people like us is to know just before they come back in and then just before they go out. For fund managers, too date, they haven't viewed the SET as a place for longer term investments. Stock brokers are quite happy about this.

[Naam]

By China, I was thinking more of fund managers out of China than Chinese government investment. Then, now that I think of it, I am not sure how many fund managers there are in China that are not foreign companies anyway.

*****

there are none due to the fact that CNY -unlike THB- is not freely convertible

[Naam]

Of course, the trick for people like us is to know just before they come back in and then just before they go out.

*****

i haven't touched any shares in more than 15 years. in case i have the urge to gamble i'll go to Vegas or Macau

[otherstuff1957]

Is the baht really getting stronger or is the dollar just getting weaker? How is the baht doing in relation to the euro, for instance?

[FunkyGuru]

So now is a good time to Deposit my into my thai account? Is it possible to deposit a check from the USA into my thai account, what exchange rate will I get and how long will it take to clear?

That would be a bad idea. It takes minimum 30 working days for foreign currency check to clear in to your account. In addition there is a US$ 50 fee applied. Don't bother bringing in checks if the amounts are not that large.

Better suggestions are to get paid in Euro / GBP. Thai baht will not get as strong against them as it does with US$.

Edited November 5, 2006 by FunkyGuru

[FunkyGuru]

In reply to otherstuff1957

That's a very interesting question. If you go through last 45 days of Baht movement against other currencies, particularly US$/EU$/GBP you will be surprised that baht has indeed been showing stronger trend. In my understanding, this is unusual but then again, in absence of any proper economic survey and review, it's hard to stay.

Noticeable is that the US$ has shown the highest slide against baht. EU$/GBP has shown lesser dramatic impact.

My guess is, after November 7 mid term election in US, the US$ will show a sharp rise, to enable the nation to have a greater buying power over Christmas. We will see $/Bat settling at anything between TB 37.5 / 38.5 to a dollar.

Then again, it's just my guess.

Edited November 5, 2006 by FunkyGuru

[Old Man River]

Of course, the trick for people like us is to know just before they come back in and then just before they go out.

*****

i haven't touched any shares in more than 15 years. in case i have the urge to gamble i'll go to Vegas or Macau

You do have a good understanding of the SET.

[DFCarlson]

So now is a good time to Deposit my into my thai account? Is it possible to deposit a check from the USA into my thai account, what exchange rate will I get and how long will it take to clear?

IMHO

This is not a good time to exchange Thai baht for US$. When the Thai baht is strong against the US$ as it is now, you get fewer baht per dollar. Best to delay as much as possible any transfer from US$ to baht if you think that the baht will weaken in the near future (more baht per dollar).

The best way to transfer money if absolutely necessary is to set up an internet transfer mechanism from your US bank account to your Thai bank account. I do this between Bank of America and Bangkok Bank, it costs $3 for a 3 business day transfer of up to $10,000. The exchange rate will be somwhere in the trading range for the third day after you submit the request. The money appears in your Thai bank account in 3 days and you can draw on it immediately. There are no other fees. This beats even cash conversion and certainly is better than using your ATM card or writing a check on your US account.

Good luck

Dave

Edited November 5, 2006 by DFCarlson

[mongoose]

So now is a good time to Deposit my into my thai account? Is it possible to deposit a check from the USA into my thai account, what exchange rate will I get and how long will it take to clear?

IMHO

"This is not a good time to exchange Thai baht for US$. "

Note : It is a good time to exchange Thai BAHT FOR US $ because it takes a low number of Baht to buy one US $. Changing US$ for Baht is not so hot now as the post explains as it continues.

You might consider getting a US$ account at a Thai Bank, then you can change to Baht when you want and get the current rate at the time of exchange. The accounts are available but require a minimum opening balance.

[DFCarlson]

So now is a good time to Deposit my into my thai account? Is it possible to deposit a check from the USA into my thai account, what exchange rate will I get and how long will it take to clear?

IMHO

"This is not a good time to exchange Thai baht for US$. "

Note : It is a good time to exchange Thai BAHT FOR US $ because it takes a low number of Baht to buy one US $. Changing US$ for Baht is not so hot now as the post explains as it continues.

You might consider getting a US$ account at a Thai Bank, then you can change to Baht when you want and get the current rate at the time of exchange. The accounts are available but require a minimum opening balance.

mongoose, you're right! That first sentence should have read, "This is not a good time to exchange US$ for Thai baht"! After that mistake, everything else is OK.

Thaks for the clarification.

[ThaiBob]

So now is a good time to Deposit my into my thai account? Is it possible to deposit a check from the USA into my thai account, what exchange rate will I get and how long will it take to clear?

IMHO

This is not a good time to exchange Thai baht for US$. When the Thai baht is strong against the US$ as it is now, you get fewer baht per dollar. Best to delay as much as possible any transfer from US$ to baht if you think that the baht will weaken in the near future (more baht per dollar).

The best way to transfer money if absolutely necessary is to set up an internet transfer mechanism from your US bank account to your Thai bank account. I do this between Bank of America and Bangkok Bank, it costs $3 for a 3 business day transfer of up to $10,000. The exchange rate will be somwhere in the trading range for the third day after you submit the request. The money appears in your Thai bank account in 3 days and you can draw on it immediately. There are no other fees. This beats even cash conversion and certainly is better than using your ATM card or writing a check on your US account.

Good luck

Dave

How is this transfer done? I also have an account with BofA and a Thai account with TMB. I typically use international wire transfers which BofA charges me 45 USD. I also have an E-Trade account and they charge 25 USD for international wire transfers. Looking for a better to transfer money. Thanks!

[mongoose]

Is the baht really getting stronger or is the dollar just getting weaker? How is the baht doing in relation to the euro, for instance?

Website exchangerate.com provides charts of many currencies vs other currencies and you can find baht vs euro and others there for past 3,6 and 12 months there.

[DFCarlson]

So now is a good time to Deposit my into my thai account? Is it possible to deposit a check from the USA into my thai account, what exchange rate will I get and how long will it take to clear?

IMHO

This is not a good time to exchange Thai baht for US$. When the Thai baht is strong against the US$ as it is now, you get fewer baht per dollar. Best to delay as much as possible any transfer from US$ to baht if you think that the baht will weaken in the near future (more baht per dollar).

The best way to transfer money if absolutely necessary is to set up an internet transfer mechanism from your US bank account to your Thai bank account. I do this between Bank of America and Bangkok Bank, it costs $3 for a 3 business day transfer of up to $10,000. The exchange rate will be somwhere in the trading range for the third day after you submit the request. The money appears in your Thai bank account in 3 days and you can draw on it immediately. There are no other fees. This beats even cash conversion and certainly is better than using your ATM card or writing a check on your US account.

Good luck

Dave

How is this transfer done? I also have an account with BofA and a Thai account with TMB. I typically use international wire transfers which BofA charges me 45 USD. I also have an E-Trade account and they charge 25 USD for international wire transfers. Looking for a better to transfer money. Thanks!

Hi ThaiBob

I did it this way:

Sign in to the Bank of America website http://bankofamerica.com/ and click on the "Transfer Funds" button on the top of the page. The next page will have 3 choices. Under "Accounts at other financial institutions" click on the link "make a transfer outside the bank" and follow the instructions. Since I have already gone through the process, I don't have the instructions available any more, only a choice of bank account and amount for the next transfer.

My Thai baht account is with Bangkok Bank, I do not know if transfers to TMB are available. Bank of America will make 2 small transfers to your Thai account which you will have to verify later on. These amounts are less than a dollar each and are not deducted from your BoA account. The instructions are very clear about what you have to do. Once you have verified the 2 small transfer amounts you're good to go. Then when you want to make a transfer you go to the same page, where you can choose the accounts you want to transfer from and to and the amount to transfer.

Good luck!

Dave