Asean summits: All eyes on the South China Sea

[webfact]

BURNING ISSUE

Asean summits: All eyes on the South China Sea

SUPALAK GANJANAKHUNDEE

 

 

VIENTIANE: -- The spotlight of world politics has swung to Laos as world leaders gather in Vientiane for two summits aimed at boosting regional and global cooperation but overshadowed by seething tensions in the South China Sea.

 

Some observers anticipate that this week's 28th and 29th Asean Summits will finally yield a unified resolution on the territory disputes from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, several of whose members are claimants. 

They will be disappointed. 

The presence in Laos of world leaders like US President Barack Obama and Chinese Premier Li Keqiang will generate headlines, but no solution per se to the region's No 1 security issue.

Asean member-countries Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam have been at loggerheads with China over longstanding overlapping territory claims in the troubled sea.

The regional grouping fears losing its so-called "centrality" in the regional security architecture if it fails to declare its position on the disputes. While its members struggle to define their "common interest" in the sea, leaders in the bloc feel they must speak with one voice on the issue. But so far they have stopped short at merely raising their "concerns" over the situation, wary of stepping into a territory so fraught with tension.

While finding common ground in affirming freedom of navigation and the need for peaceful resolution in accordance with international law, individual members of the grouping each harbour different national interests in their dealings with China.

Laos, Cambodia and Thailand, which are not claimants in the disputes, enjoy close economic bonds with China that benefit their development as well as regional integration and connectivity.

Thailand has leant on China for support after international criticism over the 2014 coup. The military-backed government sees Beijing as a major ally in its efforts to boost a sluggish economy, although a joint train deal is still in limbo. The military is also mulling deals with China to diversify its hardware and equipment. Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwan says a Bt36-billion submarine deal will be completed before the junta leaves office.

Laos and Cambodia rely on Chinese assistance, trade and investment and have never hid where their national interests lie. Beijing has also made clear its readiness to exercise influence over these countries wheneverAsean pushes for a collective voice on the South China Sea.

It would be a big surprise if Asean even made public mention of the recent Permanent Court of Arbitration verdict against China's claim in the South China Sea. 

Beijing has made clear that it will not deal with Asean collectively over the territory spats and instead favours a country-by-country approach. For China, any "meddling" by Asean or other "outside" powers, notably the United States, would complicate the issue.

The Philippines, under the leadership of the maverick Rodrigo Duterte, might prefer Beijing's approach and find a way to make bilateral deal.

Meanwhile if fellow claimant Vietnam can also find ways to deal with China over the disputes, it might be unnecessary for Asean to speak up on the contentious issue.

The remaining task for Asean in its bid for "centrality", is to focus on establishing a code of conduct for the South China Sea. 

That job is not easy, either. 

Asean has decades of experience in forging such codes with China. The current instrument, called the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC) and signed in 2002, was the result of long diplomatic struggling. It eventually became a non-binding accord thanks to pressure from Beijing. The attempt to replace it with a genuine and legally binding code began in 2011. Five years later, the group his yet to produce even a single draft of a new code of conduct for the South China Sea.

 

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/politics/Asean-summits-All-eyes-on-the-South-China-Sea-30294690.html

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2016-09-07

[Merylhighground]

7 minutes ago, webfact said:

The spotlight of world politics has swung to Laos as world leaders gather in Vientiane...

 

I got this far before laughing myself silly; I think I've done meself a mischief.....

 

[Merylhighground]

In fairness it is an excellent, if rather pessimistic, article....

[Publicus]

Asean has always been about economics, as we now have the Asean Community. The community has a GDP of $2.6 Trillion and a half billion population among its ten members.

 

It is not a national or a regional security organisation. CCP Dictators in Beijing spreading throughout the SCS leaves each country on its own. It's one for all, all for one and every country for himself.

 

All the same, Asean does not want to be dominated by CCP in Beijing. It's consistently an 8-2 country lineup to reign in CCP in the SCS. Myanmar's biggest investors now are Japan and the USA. Even Laos' new PM just froze a $49 million national highway project proposed by Beijing as excessive of cost and exploitative.

 

Vietnam just awarded another offshore drilling contract to India over the loud objections of the CCP Boyz in Beijing and VN has now been cleared by Deli to get the BrahMos missile which can reach Beijing. VN strategic partner, the pro-US India PM Narendra Modi stopped off in Hanoi on the way to the G-20 in China to sign these among a bunch of deals.

 

While the view in Beijing of Asean members as its historically tributary states remains fixed as a natural given to be restored, the elites of Asean countries and their middle classes have moved on from that, which is the nature of the SCS conflict.  

 

CCP holler a lot about sovereignty while trampling the sovereignty of Asean member states and dismissing Asean itself. 

[LawrenceChee]

It's a reality as I posted before on the practicality of Asian mentality

Philippines is now coming back to the table ; they won their moral victory now back to the practicality of governance and fundings and commercial deals

No matter how some unicorn posters like to paint it like a death wish or dominance etc etc it's a foolish ASEAN or any government that will stop trading with China unless it does another Tiananmen which it won't

Canada has just joined the AIIB snubbing their North American cousins ...leaving only USA and Japan out of the pic strange ...but it's call to return to the logical stance

Grandstanding visions of EU and TPP shows you ...grand schemes are great for PR and marketing and news but practicality and swiftness of deals is always kept small

You don't see Marriott buying IHG , Starwood , Accor at one goal ...it's impossible to negotiate ...so they bought Starwood only and negotiated one deal at a time ...or you don't see Apple doing a mega agreement with Samsung , Huawei or the likes

The private sector filled with intelligent people won't negotiate on a grand scale of complexities , keeping strategies simple and easy to execute , perhaps some governments need to learn how to do that too


Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect

[keemapoot]

With the global backlash against globalization, with Brexit, with the emergence of isolationist, anti-free trade pact potential US president Trump, and with the typically selfish behaviors shown so far by the members of ASEAN, I think we can revise any expectations downward to nil as to any declaration on the SCS. I have serious doubts that ASEAN will ever be anything significant, and see signs of countries like Thailand scrambling to erect barriers, like language barriers, to entry that skirt ASEAN.

 

China will succeed in peeling off each country one-by-one for negotiations, and as usual, whatever is in each country's best interests regarding China will prevail.

[klauskunkel]

 

... and now pull really hard!

[Rancid]

ASEAN rarely does anything controversial. Expect most are more interested in economics than starting a local cold war with China. Also would expect the Chinese will eventually do bilateral deals to resolve the issue, albeit more in their favour of course.

[Publicus]

5 hours ago, LawrenceChee said:

It's a reality as I posted before on the practicality of Asian mentality

Philippines is now coming back to the table ; they won their moral victory now back to the practicality of governance and fundings and commercial deals

No matter how some unicorn posters like to paint it like a death wish or dominance etc etc it's a foolish ASEAN or any government that will stop trading with China unless it does another Tiananmen which it won't

Canada has just joined the AIIB snubbing their North American cousins ...leaving only USA and Japan out of the pic strange ...but it's call to return to the logical stance

Grandstanding visions of EU and TPP shows you ...grand schemes are great for PR and marketing and news but practicality and swiftness of deals is always kept small

You don't see Marriott buying IHG , Starwood , Accor at one goal ...it's impossible to negotiate ...so they bought Starwood only and negotiated one deal at a time ...or you don't see Apple doing a mega agreement with Samsung , Huawei or the likes

The private sector filled with intelligent people won't negotiate on a grand scale of complexities , keeping strategies simple and easy to execute , perhaps some governments need to learn how to do that too


Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect

 

it's a foolish ASEAN or any government that will stop trading with China

 

Of course it would be -- it would be loony for virtually any country to simply stop trading with either the USA or CCP China. Who advocates to stop trading with CCP China?

 

 

perhaps some governments need to learn how to do that too
 

Governments and private business corporations are two different entities. Two different beasts entirely. Where for instance is there a United Corporations of businesses the way there is a United Nations of governments.

 

 

Kindly stop with the vacuous statements thx. (There is another pro-CCP poster who always makes things up inside his own head too. You two must be meeting on the same bridge.)

 

AIIB is a grandiose design and scheme that has no bearing on reality. It is entirely a CCP affair and all of Asia knows it is for CCP only to place itself throughout the continent, right out to Europe. Russia and China, which will do naval exercises in the SCS Sept 12-19, are already vying hard for dominance in the Stan countries. India has gone from passive resistance of AIIB to active opposition given that CCP claims the northern third of India and AIIB would elevate Pakistan in the scheme.

 

CCP China is not on a peaceful rise. It is determined to demolish Asean as an entity, destroy the UNCLOS as a body of laws and to take absolute control of the South China Sea which under UNCLOS is a global commons and an international waterway.

Edited September 7, 2016 by Publicus
Typo and spacing.

[Publicus]

4 hours ago, keemapoot said:

With the global backlash against globalization, with Brexit, with the emergence of isolationist, anti-free trade pact potential US president Trump, and with the typically selfish behaviors shown so far by the members of ASEAN, I think we can revise any expectations downward to nil as to any declaration on the SCS. I have serious doubts that ASEAN will ever be anything significant, and see signs of countries like Thailand scrambling to erect barriers, like language barriers, to entry that skirt ASEAN.

 

China will succeed in peeling off each country one-by-one for negotiations, and as usual, whatever is in each country's best interests regarding China will prevail.

 

The direction of it is that Asean member states will have to forget unity to instead choose sides.

 

The meetings of recent years show the 8-2 split among the ten member states. Active choosing of sides would however become more fragmented.

 

Most analysts see it shaping up as:

 

Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, (Brunei) as one common but loose alignment being generally pro-USA

 

Indonesia and Singapore as strongly USA. 

 

Thailand and Myanmar more in the middle.

 

Cambodia and Laos solidly for CCP.

 

South Korea btw is successfully sustaining certain and limited cutbacks of trade and economics by Beijing due to Seoul's successful pursuit in July of the Thaad anti-missile system of the US. Japan investors have been steadily streaming out of CCP China to the benefit of several Asean countries, such as Thailand, Myanmar, Philippines.

 

Almost everyone fails to recognise CCP are not a monolith. Xi Jinping and PM Li Keqiang are at war over the economy. Xi sees the State Council (cabinet) headed by Li as profligate while Li sees Xi as an irredeemable Maoist. Don't for a moment think things there are quiet or unitary. Or stable.

 

The SCS stuff is Xi's baby with the PLA. State Council and LI see no sense in it whatsoever.

[LawrenceChee]

With the global backlash against globalization, with Brexit, with the emergence of isolationist, anti-free trade pact potential US president Trump, and with the typically selfish behaviors shown so far by the members of ASEAN, I think we can revise any expectations downward to nil as to any declaration on the SCS. I have serious doubts that ASEAN will ever be anything significant, and see signs of countries like Thailand scrambling to erect barriers, like language barriers, to entry that skirt ASEAN.

 

China will succeed in peeling off each country one-by-one for negotiations, and as usual, whatever is in each country's best interests regarding China will prevail.

Very well put.

I'm in Manila monthly now putting deals up and I can say it's business as usual and more deals inked now that the court ruling is completed to be honest.

The businessmen have reviewed the situations , okay Philippines won , press made a big deal , China kept quiet and now it's time to resume business as China is still open to business and trade deals and there has been tension etc while waiting for the ruling , dust to settle etc

It's time to close out the 4th quarter and meet the annual sales targets ....be a frantic close before Christmas for Philippines to close out some of the delayed projects


Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect

[craigt3365]

11 minutes ago, LawrenceChee said:

Very well put.

I'm in Manila monthly now putting deals up and I can say it's business as usual and more deals inked now that the court ruling is completed to be honest.

The businessmen have reviewed the situations , okay Philippines won , press made a big deal , China kept quiet and now it's time to resume business as China is still open to business and trade deals and there has been tension etc while waiting for the ruling , dust to settle etc

It's time to close out the 4th quarter and meet the annual sales targets ....be a frantic close before Christmas for Philippines to close out some of the delayed projects

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect

 

 

 

Seems it hasn't settled down in the PI:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourdoukoutas/2016/08/28/philippines-sends-a-stark-warning-to-china-over-south-china-sea-dispute/#33a281333535
 

Quote

South China Sea disputes are turning worse. Last week, Philippines’ President Rodrigo Duterte had a loud and clear message for China: Stay away from our territory or else it could be a “bloody” confrontation.

 

 

[LawrenceChee]

You have to separate the Politicians theatrics and the business ....

ASEAN is driven by businessmen : private enterprises and facilitated in laws by the government ....most businessmen don't care about the islands unless they are going to make a killing from selling the drill bits and contractual service agreements and this island issue will take decades to settle before anything is remotely drilled or explored ....the abundance of cheap oil now dampens any interest there

If not in the meantime , there are sufficient amount of opportunities on the main island as the development rate of infrastructure has been poor for decades


Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect

[Publicus]

8 minutes ago, LawrenceChee said:

 

 

Very well put.

I'm in Manila monthly now putting deals up and I can say it's business as usual and more deals inked now that the court ruling is completed to be honest.

The businessmen have reviewed the situations , okay Philippines won , press made a big deal , China kept quiet and now it's time to resume business as China is still open to business and trade deals and there has been tension etc while waiting for the ruling , dust to settle etc

It's time to close out the 4th quarter and meet the annual sales targets ....be a frantic close before Christmas for Philippines to close out some of the delayed projects


Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect

 

 

 

Won't be seeing Philex Petroleum resuming long suspended drilling in its EEZ anytime soon.

 

Main reason is CCP says the zone is sovereign Chinese territory. This defiance is in direct contravention of the PCA ruling in The Hague. Manila filed its case back in 2013 due in a large part to the forced shutdown of two fields it had been drilling due to CCP aggressions there.

 

Phils imports 100% of their energy requirements. 

 

The two fields are at Reed Bank in the Phils EEZ and contain humongous amounts of natural gas and oil that the Phils need in the absolute. Yet nobody will participate with the Phils to extract, ship and refine the resources because of the fear of the dispute with Beijing. 

 

Philex is majority Phils owned and minority owned by UK investors, which is a requirement ratio of the Phils' constitution, i.e., energy companies operating in the Phils EEZ must be majority Phils controlled. Which means the sovereign CCP can't do any joint ventures with its state owned energy corporations in the Phils EEZ. CCP doesn't want any joint ventures anyhow as CCP says the zone is sovereign CCP territory (despite it being inside the Phils EEZ).

 

Phils is adamant it will not negotiate anything with CCP unless and until CCP recognises the PCA ruling as the basis of everything. President Duterte has said this, referencing the Phils' constitution. Still, CCP is adamant the PCA ruling be dismissed, ignored.

 

This goes nowhere fast due entirely to CCP Dictators in Beijing.

[Publicus]

22 minutes ago, LawrenceChee said:

You have to separate the Politicians theatrics and the business ....

ASEAN is driven by businessmen : private enterprises and facilitated in laws by the government ....most businessmen don't care about the islands unless they are going to make a killing from selling the drill bits and contractual service agreements and this island issue will take decades to settle before anything is remotely drilled or explored ....the abundance of cheap oil now dampens any interest there

If not in the meantime , there are sufficient amount of opportunities on the main island as the development rate of infrastructure has been poor for decades


Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect

 

Business does go on. Which is not news and it is not even worthy of mentioning the fact.

 

Business does continue throughout -- more here, less there, but business deals and operations do continue no matter what (short of war of course which changes everything radically).

 

It is in the absolute interest of CCP Dictators in Beijing to pretend it's only business as usual. It is in their interests that business and everything else appear or be presented as being usual, normal, routine, no problems. This does occur during disputes of any kind on land, air, sea -- whatever, where ever.

 

It is nothing new that business continues -- or resumes -- as usual during disputes. The offshore drilling of Philippines natural resources is most directly affected in the SCS disputes, and oil prices are a factor. However, for the Philippines which 100% imports its energy requirements, the impact is serious and immediate. 

 

Severely aggravating the situation is the fact China 100% believes it owns the Philippine islands anyway based on history, destiny and all else. Under heaven (tianxia).

[gchurch259]

What in the Hell does Thailand Navy need submarines for ?? Damn Ego !!

 

Spend the money on education for the poor Children.