Canada's Carney Says He Weighed US Invasion Risk

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said he has considered the risk of possible U.S. military action against Canada, amid renewed strains between the two countries and repeated comments by Donald Trump about expanding American influence northwards.

Tail-Risk Review

Carney said that as prime minister he has a duty to assess “extreme tail risk” involving the potential for an “American military action”. He said the scenario was not a likely outcome, but that it would be irresponsible not to account for it as part of government risk management.

In an interview with The New York Times on Wednesday, Carney said he studied the possibility of such a move after Trump’s public remarks. He did not provide additional detail about what preparations, if any, Canada has made for a potential U.S. response, and his office did not respond immediately to a request for further information on Thursday.

Trump’s 51st State Musings

Carney’s comments came as Trump again raised the idea that the United States could annex Canada, which he has described as its northern neighbour and key ally. Trump has previously suggested the prospect of using the military, before later ruling that out, and has also pointed to economic pressure.

In a social media post dated February 2025, Trump wrote that Canada should become the “Cherished 51st State”, adding that he envisaged lower taxes, “far better military protection”, and “NO TARIFFS” for Canadians. The post came as his administration was considering tariff measures affecting competitors and allies.

Talks After a Trade Collapse

Tensions between the countries have been heightened by trade disputes. Last month, a trade agreement between Canada and the United States collapsed at the last minute, setting the stage for both sides to pursue high tariffs against each other.

In the interview, Carney said he had spoken with Trump “frequently” since the talks failed. He said he remains optimistic and expects Canada to continue working toward a deal with the U.S.

Carney described his working relationship with Trump as direct, saying he can speak with the U.S. president about issues quickly. He said their communication style makes it easier to understand positions and move discussions forward.

Reducing Dependence on the U.S.

Even as Carney said Canada continues to engage with Washington, he also pointed to steps aimed at reducing reliance on the United States. He cited Canada’s work related to Starlink, the satellite internet network operated by SpaceX, and said the country is reviewing a planned order of F-35 fighter jets from Lockheed Martin.

The White House did not respond immediately to a request for comment.

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25 September 2026