The Thai Economy Is In Crisis

[george]

Government urged to stimulate investment for economic survival

BANGKOK: -- The Thai economy is in crisis and the government must stimulate state and private investment to make consumption recover if it wants to see the country weather the economic crisis, a leading economist warned Friday.

Supavut Saichua, president of Phatra Securities Plc, said the Bank of Thailand's decision to decrease its economic growth estimate for this year to 3.8-4.8 per cent lived up to many parties' expectations.

The company projected the country's gross domestic product (GDP) would grow only 3.7 per cent this year.

In his personal view, he said, what is important now is not how much the GDP would expand. Rather, it is how much the investment and consumption would increase while exports are expected to decline in the second half of this year.

Previously, many parties projected the investment would recover in the second half of the year. But now they shared a common view that the investment and consumption would pick up next year.

He said the political development and the economic policy are key to determining whether the economy would recover.

In next two months, he projected, political tensions are likely to escalate significantly, fuelled by four concerns including a final decision on the dissolution of several political parties by the Constitutional Tribunal, the anti-draft constitution movement, expected strong resistance from supporters of the ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawat facing legal actions in many lawsuits, and anti-government demonstrations by people affected by the economic downturn.

Dr. Supavut said he was concerned should the economy grow less than 4-5 per cent annually for several consecutive years, Thailand's unemployment would mount.

"The only way for economic survival is to stimulate both state and private investment," the Phatra executive said. "Depending chiefly on exports will not help sustain overall economic growth.

"To strengthen the economy, we have to increase production capacity, investment in new machinery and competitiveness. Once investments recover," he said, "consumption will improve."

He charged that the government had not paid attention to the economic stimulus since it viewed the economy was still able to grow by itself .

In addition, some state policies, such as an amendment to the Foreign Business Act and the central bank's capital controls, had discouraged foreign direct investment.

Regarding the baht movement, he said, it depended on the demand and supply of the US dollar in the market.

He believed the baht could not weaken until the central bank intervened in the currency movement or there was a further political crisis which shook people's confidence.

--TNA 2007-04-27

[ovenman]

BANGKOK: -- The Thai economy is in crisis and the government must stimulate state and private investment to make consumption recover if it wants to see the country weather the economic crisis, a leading economist warned Friday.

This seems a bit overblown. If the Thai economy is in crisis today, how would one describe its state in late 1997?

[midas]

BANGKOK: -- The Thai economy is in crisis and the government must stimulate state and private investment to make consumption recover if it wants to see the country weather the economic crisis, a leading economist warned Friday.

This seems a bit overblown. If the Thai economy is in crisis today, how would one describe its state in late 1997?

I wasn't living in Thailand in 1997 but as I recall it was limited to economic issues.

I don't think it's overblown one bit to describe the situation now as another crisis -and in fact I think it's

even worse now than in 1997 because now we have bitter divisions between the Thai people themselves-

and speculation that will be unrest........

[Forkinhades]

scaremongering again

[bingobongo]

not there yet, but with the US GDP coming in at a paltry 1.3% , its only a matter of time before Thailand takes it on the chin....

Four Asian nations hit by 1997-98 financial crisis face vulnerability

Thailand now faces greater risks due to a decline in the ratio of foreign reserves to short-term debt and an increase in short-term capital inflows.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/04/19/news/currency.php

[midas]

scaremongering again

no scaremongering Forkinhades - just fact

[bingobongo]

Thailand's growth worsening as competitors reap the benefits

Thailand is now trailing all other countries in the region in terms of economic growth.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/04/27...on_30032832.php

[highdiver]

not there yet, but with the US GDP coming in at a paltry 1.3% , its only a matter of time before Thailand takes it on the chin....

Four Asian nations hit by 1997-98 financial crisis face vulnerability

Thailand now faces greater risks due to a decline in the ratio of foreign reserves to short-term debt and an increase in short-term capital inflows.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/04/19/news/currency.php

I agree with you. but maybe not got the same reason.

Thailand is facing another financial crisis vulnerability because huge hedge funds and investment banks have taken position on the thai baht. As such Thailand is now at the mercy of those forign speculators that can decide to draw out and repeat the same crisis as in 97. Unfortunatly this is now a problem not only for thailand but for the whole world. the Huge fund mangers have only one consideration and that is to make more and more profits. they dont care if they can ruin a country or devestate an economy while doing so.

All the economical factors are in favour for thailand to continue growth but a bunch of greedy speculators can realy rock the boat.

there is no way to stop this as if you put limitations on short-term capital inflows the speculators are going to go to the govermants and complain about thailands monitary policy and thailand does not want tpo upset the americans or the europeans. so at the end of the day a few greedy managers are basicly running the world.

[Plus]

In the late 1997 baht depreciated by 200%, government collapsed, tough IMF conditions were imposed, 56 financial companies were forcibly closed with losses in trillions of baht and the next year the economy shrinked by 20%.

Now THAT's a crisis.

[mbkudu]

The above (post #8) is interesting, but well, if a country like Thailand managed itself better and didn't make the asinine decisions of late, then it wouldn't be in such a vulnerable position. The 97' debacle was also a sef-made mess and then the vultures circled and came in.

Edited April 27, 2007 by mbkudu

[bingobongo]

Thailand is going nowhere quite quickly......

Some 4,000 protest Thailand's junta

Thailand's economy is seen rising 3.8-4.8 pct in 2007, the lowest growth in six years.

The protest movement is also beginning to create an odd coalition of allies, with some pro-democracy groups who last year demonstrated against Thaksin now joining forces with his allies in protesting against the junta, they said.

http://www.forbes.com/business/feeds/afx/2...afx3661883.html

[VegasVic]

not there yet, but with the US GDP coming in at a paltry 1.3% , its only a matter of time before Thailand takes it on the chin....

Four Asian nations hit by 1997-98 financial crisis face vulnerability

Thailand now faces greater risks due to a decline in the ratio of foreign reserves to short-term debt and an increase in short-term capital inflows.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/04/19/news/currency.php

I agree with you. but maybe not got the same reason.

Thailand is facing another financial crisis vulnerability because huge hedge funds and investment banks have taken position on the thai baht. As such Thailand is now at the mercy of those forign speculators that can decide to draw out and repeat the same crisis as in 97. Unfortunatly this is now a problem not only for thailand but for the whole world. the Huge fund mangers have only one consideration and that is to make more and more profits. they dont care if they can ruin a country or devestate an economy while doing so.

All the economical factors are in favour for thailand to continue growth but a bunch of greedy speculators can realy rock the boat.

there is no way to stop this as if you put limitations on short-term capital inflows the speculators are going to go to the govermants and complain about thailands monitary policy and thailand does not want tpo upset the americans or the europeans. so at the end of the day a few greedy managers are basicly running the world.

Highdiver, You hit the nail on the head! I have posted multiple times on this subject but most people here just don't get it. When the hedge funds decide to get out of their investments and change their baht back in to euros and U.S. dollars then the Thai baht will do an absolute backflip. People don't realize the size and scope of these funds to change capital markets overnight and ruin a small countries economy as well, and you are correct that absolute greed is the only thing that motivates these people. It is truely unconsionable how governments both in the U.S. and Europe have been bought off and make no attempt to have any regulation or oversight on these hedge fund criminals. A good example was the democratic debate in south carolina yesterday, the moderator asked john edwards and hillary clinton the same question about what they would do to institute some oversight on the hedge fund industry if elected and both candidates completely dodged the question and talked about something else. The next question in the debate was directed toward chris dodd (a senator from conneticut that the hegde fund industry has in its back pocket) and you could see senator dodd sweating bullets thinking that he might be getting the same question on the hegde fund industry, but sadly the moderator seeing that he was not going to get a straight answer about hedge funds from these candidiates, changed the line of questioning and you could see the immediate relief on chris dodds face. Just as Jesus overturned the carts of the moneychangers in the temple, we need someone in power with a strong loyal following to turn over the carts of the hedge funds and watch as the cockroaches scrurry, if something isn't done soon then I feel that the price to pay will be devestating.

[nick2k]

not there yet, but with the US GDP coming in at a paltry 1.3% , its only a matter of time before Thailand takes it on the chin....

Four Asian nations hit by 1997-98 financial crisis face vulnerability

Thailand now faces greater risks due to a decline in the ratio of foreign reserves to short-term debt and an increase in short-term capital inflows.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/04/19/news/currency.php

I agree with you. but maybe not got the same reason.

Thailand is facing another financial crisis vulnerability because huge hedge funds and investment banks have taken position on the thai baht. As such Thailand is now at the mercy of those forign speculators that can decide to draw out and repeat the same crisis as in 97. Unfortunatly this is now a problem not only for thailand but for the whole world. the Huge fund mangers have only one consideration and that is to make more and more profits. they dont care if they can ruin a country or devestate an economy while doing so.

All the economical factors are in favour for thailand to continue growth but a bunch of greedy speculators can realy rock the boat.

there is no way to stop this as if you put limitations on short-term capital inflows the speculators are going to go to the govermants and complain about thailands monitary policy and thailand does not want tpo upset the americans or the europeans. so at the end of the day a few greedy managers are basicly running the world.

Highdiver, You hit the nail on the head! I have posted multiple times on this subject but most people here just don't get it. When the hedge funds decide to get out of their investments and change their baht back in to euros and U.S. dollars then the Thai baht will do an absolute backflip. People don't realize the size and scope of these funds to change capital markets overnight and ruin a small countries economy as well, and you are correct that absolute greed is the only thing that motivates these people. It is truely unconsionable how governments both in the U.S. and Europe have been bought off and make no attempt to have any regulation or oversight on these hedge fund criminals. A good example was the democratic debate in south carolina yesterday, the moderator asked john edwards and hillary clinton the same question about what they would do to institute some oversight on the hedge fund industry if elected and both candidates completely dodged the question and talked about something else. The next question in the debate was directed toward chris dodd (a senator from conneticut that the hegde fund industry has in its back pocket) and you could see senator dodd sweating bullets thinking that he might be getting the same question on the hegde fund industry, but sadly the moderator seeing that he was not going to get a straight answer about hedge funds from these candidiates, changed the line of questioning and you could see the immediate relief on chris dodds face. Just as Jesus overturned the carts of the moneychangers in the temple, we need someone in power with a strong loyal following to turn over the carts of the hedge funds and watch as the cockroaches scrurry, if something isn't done soon then I feel that the price to pay will be devestating.

if you have proof that this is actually happening, then, let us all see it. otherwise, all this conspiracy stuff is old stuff, and the only thing it does is make foreigners more anti-american.

on the other hand, since you seem to think this is true, perhaps you can tell us all what thailand can do to stop this so-called conspiracy being implemented by evil rich americans?

your conspiracy theories are making it so that win or lose, america will look like the one to blame.

jesus, can't someone in this world take the blame for something THEY did for once?

yeah. maybe I am naive about all the evil in this world. so, please enlighten me. but some more constructive thought would help instead of just all the accusations. thank you.

[solo siam]

I think a lot of people here are underestimating how hard it is to manipulate currency markets.

In terms of some sort of economic crisis, even this lower GDP number is 3 times the GDP growth that the USA is currently experiencing.

With a Coup, The Tsunami, FBA, 30% Currency regulation etc... I'd say its doing pretty ###### fine actually. Some people are just naturally a little negative and look for things to fail, so they can say "I told you so".

I could start a thread with the title "THAILAND GROWS 3 TIMES AS QUICKLY AS THE USA" but it really doesn't mean anything even though it would be a true statement.

[nick2k]

I get email all the time from people overseas asking about quote, "how safe is it to visit thailand now?"

do you want to know why people are scared to come to thailand now? I'll be very blunt, and to the point. no bullshit.

1) the coup, (like who in the right mind won't be scared when they hear of a coup??!?)

2) the bombings in bangkok, (again, who wouldn't be scared to come to thailand after hearing of the bombings??!?)

3) the bombings down south, (need I say more??!?)

4) the rising baht, (what the <deleted>#k, from 42 to 34 like within a year. that's 20%+. not such a deal now right??!?)

5) the anti-american sentiment, (yes, it exists, and more so than you want to believe.)

6) the abbott protests, (many thais believe western nations are evil corrupt capitalists. so, why should foreigners come??!?)

7) the changing property laws, (what home owner would want to come back to thailand after being told to <deleted>#k off.)

does a foreigner need any more reason to NOT come to thailand??!?

so, tell me.. who is to blame for all the above things happening? evil rich americans???

get real. the only ones to blame for the current problems are thais. either for allowing the above to happen, or being involved.

just to let you know, I am telling most of my friends who are asking to DO come back. but honestly, I am sure there are

more out there who have nobody like me to advise them.

..is there a crisis about to occur?

in my opinion - yes. ..but I am just one person who can do nothing. one speck in this universe.

[VegasVic]

not there yet, but with the US GDP coming in at a paltry 1.3% , its only a matter of time before Thailand takes it on the chin....

Four Asian nations hit by 1997-98 financial crisis face vulnerability

Thailand now faces greater risks due to a decline in the ratio of foreign reserves to short-term debt and an increase in short-term capital inflows.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/04/19/news/currency.php

I agree with you. but maybe not got the same reason.

Thailand is facing another financial crisis vulnerability because huge hedge funds and investment banks have taken position on the thai baht. As such Thailand is now at the mercy of those forign speculators that can decide to draw out and repeat the same crisis as in 97. Unfortunatly this is now a problem not only for thailand but for the whole world. the Huge fund mangers have only one consideration and that is to make more and more profits. they dont care if they can ruin a country or devestate an economy while doing so.

All the economical factors are in favour for thailand to continue growth but a bunch of greedy speculators can realy rock the boat.

there is no way to stop this as if you put limitations on short-term capital inflows the speculators are going to go to the govermants and complain about thailands monitary policy and thailand does not want tpo upset the americans or the europeans. so at the end of the day a few greedy managers are basicly running the world.

Highdiver, You hit the nail on the head! I have posted multiple times on this subject but most people here just don't get it. When the hedge funds decide to get out of their investments and change their baht back in to euros and U.S. dollars then the Thai baht will do an absolute backflip. People don't realize the size and scope of these funds to change capital markets overnight and ruin a small countries economy as well, and you are correct that absolute greed is the only thing that motivates these people. It is truely unconsionable how governments both in the U.S. and Europe have been bought off and make no attempt to have any regulation or oversight on these hedge fund criminals. A good example was the democratic debate in south carolina yesterday, the moderator asked john edwards and hillary clinton the same question about what they would do to institute some oversight on the hedge fund industry if elected and both candidates completely dodged the question and talked about something else. The next question in the debate was directed toward chris dodd (a senator from conneticut that the hegde fund industry has in its back pocket) and you could see senator dodd sweating bullets thinking that he might be getting the same question on the hegde fund industry, but sadly the moderator seeing that he was not going to get a straight answer about hedge funds from these candidiates, changed the line of questioning and you could see the immediate relief on chris dodds face. Just as Jesus overturned the carts of the moneychangers in the temple, we need someone in power with a strong loyal following to turn over the carts of the hedge funds and watch as the cockroaches scrurry, if something isn't done soon then I feel that the price to pay will be devestating.

if you have proof that this is actually happening, then, let us all see it. otherwise, all this conspiracy stuff is old stuff, and the only thing it does is make foreigners more anti-american.

on the other hand, since you seem to think this is true, perhaps you can tell us all what thailand can do to stop this so-called conspiracy being implemented by evil rich americans?

your conspiracy theories are making it so that win or lose, america will look like the one to blame.

jesus, can't someone in this world take the blame for something THEY did for once?

yeah. maybe I am naive about all the evil in this world. so, please enlighten me. but some more constructive thought would help instead of just all the accusations. thank you.

Nick, First of all there is no conspiracy theory going on here, hegde funds and arbitragers have been with us for a while now and their size, strength, and political clout has grown into something that would make the tabacco industry evious. Secondly, this is not a uniquely american phenomonon there are many european hedge funds manipulating the thai market as well as many other markets in asia and elseware. Last week on 60 minutes (or maybe it was 20-20) there was a segment on just this, and senator grassley who had the guts to put forward some rather tame hegde fund legislation on the senate floor was interviewed and said that within 10 minutes of introducing his bill on the senate floor he was contacted by multiple parties(both other senators and lobbyists) to kill the bill. In this same segment it was made clear that on multiple occasions senator dodd has killed similiar bills and then 60 minutes went on to say that dodd recieved over 5 million dollars from the hedge fund industry in his last campaign. These are the hard cold facts my friend, I only wish it was just a bad dream or some bogus conspiracy theory. By the way americans are not to blame but instead are victims of these hedge funds as well. Perhaps when the valuation on the baht does reverse dramatically and some journalist can lay out just how all this occured, then perhaps you will not be so naive the next time around.

[bingobongo]

I think a lot of people here are underestimating how hard it is to manipulate currency markets.

In terms of some sort of economic crisis, even this lower GDP number is 3 times the GDP growth that the USA is currently experiencing.

With a Coup, The Tsunami, FBA, 30% Currency regulation etc... I'd say its doing pretty ###### fine actually. Some people are just naturally a little negative and look for things to fail, so they can say "I told you so".

I could start a thread with the title "THAILAND GROWS 3 TIMES AS QUICKLY AS THE USA" but it really doesn't mean anything even though it would be a true statement.

true, but comparing apples to oranges

Thailand growing 3% more than USA is inconsequential as Thailand is infinitely smaller than the USA. USA growing at a paltry 1.3% and the whole world feels the slowdown effect. thailand growing at 3% and the world barely notices.

if USA slows, Thailand feels it, a slowdown in Thailand has no impact on the USA

Edited April 27, 2007 by bingobongo

[cdnvic]

5) the anti-american sentiment, (yes, it exists, and more so than you want to believe.)

It exists to a certain extent everywhere but it's not overwhelming by any means.

6) the abbott protests, (many thais believe western nations are evil corrupt capitalists. so, why should foreigners come??!?)

Where do you get this information from?

7) the changing property laws, (what home owner would want to come back to thailand after being told to <deleted>#k off.)

What change, other than a woman married to a foreigner was once forbidden to buy property but now is able to? Foreigners never could buy property in Thailand and still can't.

[nick2k]

not there yet, but with the US GDP coming in at a paltry 1.3% , its only a matter of time before Thailand takes it on the chin....

Four Asian nations hit by 1997-98 financial crisis face vulnerability

Thailand now faces greater risks due to a decline in the ratio of foreign reserves to short-term debt and an increase in short-term capital inflows.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/04/19/news/currency.php

I agree with you. but maybe not got the same reason.

Thailand is facing another financial crisis vulnerability because huge hedge funds and investment banks have taken position on the thai baht. As such Thailand is now at the mercy of those forign speculators that can decide to draw out and repeat the same crisis as in 97. Unfortunatly this is now a problem not only for thailand but for the whole world. the Huge fund mangers have only one consideration and that is to make more and more profits. they dont care if they can ruin a country or devestate an economy while doing so.

All the economical factors are in favour for thailand to continue growth but a bunch of greedy speculators can realy rock the boat.

there is no way to stop this as if you put limitations on short-term capital inflows the speculators are going to go to the govermants and complain about thailands monitary policy and thailand does not want tpo upset the americans or the europeans. so at the end of the day a few greedy managers are basicly running the world.

Highdiver, You hit the nail on the head! I have posted multiple times on this subject but most people here just don't get it. When the hedge funds decide to get out of their investments and change their baht back in to euros and U.S. dollars then the Thai baht will do an absolute backflip. People don't realize the size and scope of these funds to change capital markets overnight and ruin a small countries economy as well, and you are correct that absolute greed is the only thing that motivates these people. It is truely unconsionable how governments both in the U.S. and Europe have been bought off and make no attempt to have any regulation or oversight on these hedge fund criminals. A good example was the democratic debate in south carolina yesterday, the moderator asked john edwards and hillary clinton the same question about what they would do to institute some oversight on the hedge fund industry if elected and both candidates completely dodged the question and talked about something else. The next question in the debate was directed toward chris dodd (a senator from conneticut that the hegde fund industry has in its back pocket) and you could see senator dodd sweating bullets thinking that he might be getting the same question on the hegde fund industry, but sadly the moderator seeing that he was not going to get a straight answer about hedge funds from these candidiates, changed the line of questioning and you could see the immediate relief on chris dodds face. Just as Jesus overturned the carts of the moneychangers in the temple, we need someone in power with a strong loyal following to turn over the carts of the hedge funds and watch as the cockroaches scrurry, if something isn't done soon then I feel that the price to pay will be devestating.

if you have proof that this is actually happening, then, let us all see it. otherwise, all this conspiracy stuff is old stuff, and the only thing it does is make foreigners more anti-american.

on the other hand, since you seem to think this is true, perhaps you can tell us all what thailand can do to stop this so-called conspiracy being implemented by evil rich americans?

your conspiracy theories are making it so that win or lose, america will look like the one to blame.

jesus, can't someone in this world take the blame for something THEY did for once?

yeah. maybe I am naive about all the evil in this world. so, please enlighten me. but some more constructive thought would help instead of just all the accusations. thank you.

Nick, First of all there is no conspiracy theory going on here, hegde funds and arbitragers have been with us for a while now and their size, strength, and political clout has grown into something that would make the tabacco industry evious. Secondly, this is not a uniquely american phenomonon there are many european hedge funds manipulating the thai market as well as many other markets in asia and elseware. Last week on 60 minutes (or maybe it was 20-20) there was a segment on just this, and senator grassley who had the guts to put forward some rather tame hegde fund legislation on the senate floor was interviewed and said that within 10 minutes of introducing his bill on the senate floor he was contacted by multiple parties(both other senators and lobbyists) to kill the bill. In this same segment it was made clear that on multiple occasions senator dodd has killed similiar bills and then 60 minutes went on to say that dodd recieved over 5 million dollars from the hedge fund industry in his last campaign. These are the hard cold facts my friend, I only wish it was just a bad dream or some bogus conspiracy theory. By the way americans are not to blame but instead are victims of these hedge funds as well. Perhaps when the valuation on the baht does reverse dramatically and some journalist can lay out just how all this occured, then perhaps you will not be so naive the next time around.

ok. I am not disbelieving you. especially if 60 minutes brought the subject up.

...if some senators and some lobby groups tried to stop this hegde fund legislation, then, these people need to be identified before anybody can do anything. so, the big question is - can you identify who these senators and lobbyist are?

on the same token, since you say that there are american and european hedge funds who are causing all these evil deeds here in thailand, can you identify them so that ALL thais will know who they are?

to fight an evil, you must first know who you are fighting. right?

name the hedge funds.

being a small speck, I certainly cannot do much. but I am sure there are others with more "influence" who can.

expose the hedge funds.

[bingobongo]

so where are the rainbows and lollipops......sorry.....only reality......

ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN

Fears of lay-offs grow by the day

Growth needs to start accelerating soon or industrial sector will be hit: Finance Ministry

Consumption and investment slowed in March, as economic growth decelerated further, Pannee Sathavarodom, the director general of the Fiscal Policy Office said yesterday.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/04/28/headlines/headlines_30032932.php

Edited April 27, 2007 by bingobongo

[VegasVic]

I think a lot of people here are underestimating how hard it is to manipulate currency markets.

In terms of some sort of economic crisis, even this lower GDP number is 3 times the GDP growth that the USA is currently experiencing.

With a Coup, The Tsunami, FBA, 30% Currency regulation etc... I'd say its doing pretty ###### fine actually. Some people are just naturally a little negative and look for things to fail, so they can say "I told you so".

I could start a thread with the title "THAILAND GROWS 3 TIMES AS QUICKLY AS THE USA" but it really doesn't mean anything even though it would be a true statement.

"I think a lot of people here are underestimating how hard it is to manipulate currency markets" A very interesting lead off sentence Ben, however you might want to do a little historical reasearch before you post something like that next time, if you do you will find out that only a few years ago the pound sterling was under attack from George Soros and Mr. Soros on his own brought the chancelor of the exchecker to his knees! Now if one man has the ability to manipulate one of the strongest currencies on the planet then just imagine what a group of multi billion dollar hedge fund managers can do to a small country like Thailand. Please go ahead and start that thread comparing GDP growth in the U.S. vs. Thailand, who knows you might even learn something or at least you might be forced to take off those rose colored glasses.

[VegasVic]

not there yet, but with the US GDP coming in at a paltry 1.3% , its only a matter of time before Thailand takes it on the chin....

Four Asian nations hit by 1997-98 financial crisis face vulnerability

Thailand now faces greater risks due to a decline in the ratio of foreign reserves to short-term debt and an increase in short-term capital inflows.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/04/19/news/currency.php

I agree with you. but maybe not got the same reason.

Thailand is facing another financial crisis vulnerability because huge hedge funds and investment banks have taken position on the thai baht. As such Thailand is now at the mercy of those forign speculators that can decide to draw out and repeat the same crisis as in 97. Unfortunatly this is now a problem not only for thailand but for the whole world. the Huge fund mangers have only one consideration and that is to make more and more profits. they dont care if they can ruin a country or devestate an economy while doing so.

All the economical factors are in favour for thailand to continue growth but a bunch of greedy speculators can realy rock the boat.

there is no way to stop this as if you put limitations on short-term capital inflows the speculators are going to go to the govermants and complain about thailands monitary policy and thailand does not want tpo upset the americans or the europeans. so at the end of the day a few greedy managers are basicly running the world.

Highdiver, You hit the nail on the head! I have posted multiple times on this subject but most people here just don't get it. When the hedge funds decide to get out of their investments and change their baht back in to euros and U.S. dollars then the Thai baht will do an absolute backflip. People don't realize the size and scope of these funds to change capital markets overnight and ruin a small countries economy as well, and you are correct that absolute greed is the only thing that motivates these people. It is truely unconsionable how governments both in the U.S. and Europe have been bought off and make no attempt to have any regulation or oversight on these hedge fund criminals. A good example was the democratic debate in south carolina yesterday, the moderator asked john edwards and hillary clinton the same question about what they would do to institute some oversight on the hedge fund industry if elected and both candidates completely dodged the question and talked about something else. The next question in the debate was directed toward chris dodd (a senator from conneticut that the hegde fund industry has in its back pocket) and you could see senator dodd sweating bullets thinking that he might be getting the same question on the hegde fund industry, but sadly the moderator seeing that he was not going to get a straight answer about hedge funds from these candidiates, changed the line of questioning and you could see the immediate relief on chris dodds face. Just as Jesus overturned the carts of the moneychangers in the temple, we need someone in power with a strong loyal following to turn over the carts of the hedge funds and watch as the cockroaches scrurry, if something isn't done soon then I feel that the price to pay will be devestating.

if you have proof that this is actually happening, then, let us all see it. otherwise, all this conspiracy stuff is old stuff, and the only thing it does is make foreigners more anti-american.

on the other hand, since you seem to think this is true, perhaps you can tell us all what thailand can do to stop this so-called conspiracy being implemented by evil rich americans?

your conspiracy theories are making it so that win or lose, america will look like the one to blame.

jesus, can't someone in this world take the blame for something THEY did for once?

yeah. maybe I am naive about all the evil in this world. so, please enlighten me. but some more constructive thought would help instead of just all the accusations. thank you.

Nick, First of all there is no conspiracy theory going on here, hegde funds and arbitragers have been with us for a while now and their size, strength, and political clout has grown into something that would make the tabacco industry evious. Secondly, this is not a uniquely american phenomonon there are many european hedge funds manipulating the thai market as well as many other markets in asia and elseware. Last week on 60 minutes (or maybe it was 20-20) there was a segment on just this, and senator grassley who had the guts to put forward some rather tame hegde fund legislation on the senate floor was interviewed and said that within 10 minutes of introducing his bill on the senate floor he was contacted by multiple parties(both other senators and lobbyists) to kill the bill. In this same segment it was made clear that on multiple occasions senator dodd has killed similiar bills and then 60 minutes went on to say that dodd recieved over 5 million dollars from the hedge fund industry in his last campaign. These are the hard cold facts my friend, I only wish it was just a bad dream or some bogus conspiracy theory. By the way americans are not to blame but instead are victims of these hedge funds as well. Perhaps when the valuation on the baht does reverse dramatically and some journalist can lay out just how all this occured, then perhaps you will not be so naive the next time around.

ok. I am not disbelieving you. especially if 60 minutes brought the subject up.

...if some senators and some lobby groups tried to stop this hegde fund legislation, then, these people need to be identified before anybody can do anything. so, the big question is - can you identify who these senators and lobbyist are?

on the same token, since you say that there are american and european hedge funds who are causing all these evil deeds here in thailand, can you identify them so that ALL thais will know who they are?

to fight an evil, you must first know who you are fighting. right?

name the hedge funds.

being a small speck, I certainly cannot do much. but I am sure there are others with more "influence" who can.

expose the hedge funds.

Nick, You just don't get it do you? The United States Congress is so impetent and scared that they cannot pass legislation to regulate or at the very least lend some transparency to the hedge fund industry. In Eurpoe it is the same way, but at least the discussion seems to be "on the table" over there. These funds act with impunity and have absolutly no transparency so what do you think that you could possibly do? I tell you what if you check out the phone books for Darien conneticut, Boca Raton FL., northern N.J., Toronto Canada, Bermuda, the Bahanas, the cayman islands and Berlin you might have a good start as most of the power players in the hedge fund industry operate from these locals. Good luck my friend, perhaps you have the power to do what the U.S. congress obviously doesn't have the balls to attempt!

[nick2k]

not there yet, but with the US GDP coming in at a paltry 1.3% , its only a matter of time before Thailand takes it on the chin....

Four Asian nations hit by 1997-98 financial crisis face vulnerability

Thailand now faces greater risks due to a decline in the ratio of foreign reserves to short-term debt and an increase in short-term capital inflows.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/04/19/news/currency.php

I agree with you. but maybe not got the same reason.

Thailand is facing another financial crisis vulnerability because huge hedge funds and investment banks have taken position on the thai baht. As such Thailand is now at the mercy of those forign speculators that can decide to draw out and repeat the same crisis as in 97. Unfortunatly this is now a problem not only for thailand but for the whole world. the Huge fund mangers have only one consideration and that is to make more and more profits. they dont care if they can ruin a country or devestate an economy while doing so.

All the economical factors are in favour for thailand to continue growth but a bunch of greedy speculators can realy rock the boat.

there is no way to stop this as if you put limitations on short-term capital inflows the speculators are going to go to the govermants and complain about thailands monitary policy and thailand does not want tpo upset the americans or the europeans. so at the end of the day a few greedy managers are basicly running the world.

Highdiver, You hit the nail on the head! I have posted multiple times on this subject but most people here just don't get it. When the hedge funds decide to get out of their investments and change their baht back in to euros and U.S. dollars then the Thai baht will do an absolute backflip. People don't realize the size and scope of these funds to change capital markets overnight and ruin a small countries economy as well, and you are correct that absolute greed is the only thing that motivates these people. It is truely unconsionable how governments both in the U.S. and Europe have been bought off and make no attempt to have any regulation or oversight on these hedge fund criminals. A good example was the democratic debate in south carolina yesterday, the moderator asked john edwards and hillary clinton the same question about what they would do to institute some oversight on the hedge fund industry if elected and both candidates completely dodged the question and talked about something else. The next question in the debate was directed toward chris dodd (a senator from conneticut that the hegde fund industry has in its back pocket) and you could see senator dodd sweating bullets thinking that he might be getting the same question on the hegde fund industry, but sadly the moderator seeing that he was not going to get a straight answer about hedge funds from these candidiates, changed the line of questioning and you could see the immediate relief on chris dodds face. Just as Jesus overturned the carts of the moneychangers in the temple, we need someone in power with a strong loyal following to turn over the carts of the hedge funds and watch as the cockroaches scrurry, if something isn't done soon then I feel that the price to pay will be devestating.

if you have proof that this is actually happening, then, let us all see it. otherwise, all this conspiracy stuff is old stuff, and the only thing it does is make foreigners more anti-american.

on the other hand, since you seem to think this is true, perhaps you can tell us all what thailand can do to stop this so-called conspiracy being implemented by evil rich americans?

your conspiracy theories are making it so that win or lose, america will look like the one to blame.

jesus, can't someone in this world take the blame for something THEY did for once?

yeah. maybe I am naive about all the evil in this world. so, please enlighten me. but some more constructive thought would help instead of just all the accusations. thank you.

Nick, First of all there is no conspiracy theory going on here, hegde funds and arbitragers have been with us for a while now and their size, strength, and political clout has grown into something that would make the tabacco industry evious. Secondly, this is not a uniquely american phenomonon there are many european hedge funds manipulating the thai market as well as many other markets in asia and elseware. Last week on 60 minutes (or maybe it was 20-20) there was a segment on just this, and senator grassley who had the guts to put forward some rather tame hegde fund legislation on the senate floor was interviewed and said that within 10 minutes of introducing his bill on the senate floor he was contacted by multiple parties(both other senators and lobbyists) to kill the bill. In this same segment it was made clear that on multiple occasions senator dodd has killed similiar bills and then 60 minutes went on to say that dodd recieved over 5 million dollars from the hedge fund industry in his last campaign. These are the hard cold facts my friend, I only wish it was just a bad dream or some bogus conspiracy theory. By the way americans are not to blame but instead are victims of these hedge funds as well. Perhaps when the valuation on the baht does reverse dramatically and some journalist can lay out just how all this occured, then perhaps you will not be so naive the next time around.

ok. I am not disbelieving you. especially if 60 minutes brought the subject up.

...if some senators and some lobby groups tried to stop this hegde fund legislation, then, these people need to be identified before anybody can do anything. so, the big question is - can you identify who these senators and lobbyist are?

on the same token, since you say that there are american and european hedge funds who are causing all these evil deeds here in thailand, can you identify them so that ALL thais will know who they are?

to fight an evil, you must first know who you are fighting. right?

name the hedge funds.

being a small speck, I certainly cannot do much. but I am sure there are others with more "influence" who can.

expose the hedge funds.

Nick, You just don't get it do you? The United States Congress is so impetent and scared that they cannot pass legislation to regulate or at the very least lend some transparency to the hedge fund industry. In Eurpoe it is the same way, but at least the discussion seems to be "on the table" over there. These funds act with impunity and have absolutly no transparency so what do you think that you could possibly do? I tell you what if you check out the phone books for Darien conneticut, Boca Raton FL., northern N.J., Toronto Canada, Bermuda, the Bahanas, the cayman islands and Berlin you might have a good start as most of the power players in the hedge fund industry operate from these locals. Good luck my friend, perhaps you have the power to do what the U.S. congress obviously doesn't have the balls to attempt!

we only have your accusations. no proof. if you know personally ANY hedge funds who are causing these conspiracies as you claim they are doing, bring it out so that people can confront them.

as for the "other guy" who asked me how I "know" that there is a lot of anti-american sentiment here in thailand. you only have to read the newspapers here to get the general idea of what is going on. gee, you really don't need to go that far either. why, just read the replies from thais on thaivisa.

we are starting to get off-topic here. so, I will stop.

[LaoPo]

Government urged to stimulate investment for economic survival

BANGKOK: -- The Thai economy is in crisis and the government must stimulate state and private investment to make consumption recover if it wants to see the country weather the economic crisis, a leading economist warned Friday.

Supavut Saichua, president of Phatra Securities Plc, said the Bank of Thailand's decision to decrease its economic growth estimate for this year to 3.8-4.8 per cent lived up to many parties' expectations.

The company projected the country's gross domestic product (GDP) would grow only 3.7 per cent this year.

In his personal view, he said, what is important now is not how much the GDP would expand. Rather, it is how much the investment and consumption would increase while exports are expected to decline in the second half of this year.

Previously, many parties projected the investment would recover in the second half of the year. But now they shared a common view that the investment and consumption would pick up next year.

He said the political development and the economic policy are key to determining whether the economy would recover.

In next two months, he projected, political tensions are likely to escalate significantly, fuelled by four concerns including a final decision on the dissolution of several political parties by the Constitutional Tribunal, the anti-draft constitution movement, expected strong resistance from supporters of the ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawat facing legal actions in many lawsuits, and anti-government demonstrations by people affected by the economic downturn.

Dr. Supavut said he was concerned should the economy grow less than 4-5 per cent annually for several consecutive years, Thailand's unemployment would mount.

"The only way for economic survival is to stimulate both state and private investment," the Phatra executive said. "Depending chiefly on exports will not help sustain overall economic growth.

"To strengthen the economy, we have to increase production capacity, investment in new machinery and competitiveness. Once investments recover," he said, "consumption will improve."

He charged that the government had not paid attention to the economic stimulus since it viewed the economy was still able to grow by itself .

In addition, some state policies, such as an amendment to the Foreign Business Act and the central bank's capital controls, had discouraged foreign direct investment.

Regarding the baht movement, he said, it depended on the demand and supply of the US dollar in the market.

He believed the baht could not weaken until the central bank intervened in the currency movement or there was a further political crisis which shook people's confidence.

--TNA 2007-04-27

Instead of talking about 'scary' and 'nasty' overseas hedge funds, trying to screw Thailand, I suggest to have a look at this:

"But going forward the bad news is, these (transitional and now emerging) countries are now competing against Malaysia and Thailand for trade, commerce and investment. Some of the new players have enormous populations (China and India it goes without saying, but also Pakistan, Bangladesh and Vietnam). Others have small populations but untapped natural resources that they are keen to exploit (Kazakhstan and Mongolia)." Already, Malaysia and Thailand have been overshadowed by the excitement of these new places. Their stock markets have received less weighting as a percentage in the Morgan Stanley Capital International Index (MSCI). Malaysia enjoyed a peak in May 1995, with a weighting in the MSCI of 16.2. Now its weighting is 4.5 per cent.

Thailand has faced a similar situation, with an MSCI weighting of 10.1 per cent in June 1995 and now 2.2 per cent.

This implies that other emerging markets have been taking away the investment that would have otherwise gone to Malaysia and Thailand.

The two neighbours need to do something to improve their attractiveness, as global changes unfold before their eyes. Unfortunately, Thailand has not yet started to rethink its future or how it plans to compete in the years ahead. Singapore laid down its economic plan for the global economy four or five years ago. Malaysia has also taken several steps to improve its attractiveness. Vietnam has done an excellent job in opening up.

But Thailand - facing an ongoing political crisis - has to pull itself together quickly and mobilise all its resources in order to make sure it's going in the right direction.

More here:

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/04/27...on_30032832.php

LaoPo

[ChiangMaiAmerican]

Thailand has a plan. Its called the new and improved Foreign Business Act. Its guaranteed to make Thailand more attractive and competitive. Foreign investors will love it. New investment is expected to deluge the country the moment the amended act is approved by the NLA. If you don't believe it just ask the Commerce Minister.

[ChiangMaiAmerican]

More proof the new plan is working. I wonder what is going to happen when all those new grads can't find work and those already employed find themselves laid off?

"ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN

Fears of lay-offs grow by the day

Growth needs to start accelerating soon or industrial sector will be hit: Finance Ministry

The economic slowdown has started to affect employment, with lay-offs expected if growth does not pick up soon, according to the Finance Ministry.

Signs of unemployment are evident in the manufacturing sector, which saw February's employment numbers expand only 1.7 per cent, compared with 5.5 per cent in January. Employment in the service sector grew only 1.8 per cent in February, compared with 3.5 per cent in January."

And

"It now has to grow by 5 per cent to absorb the new workforce at around 300,000 to 400,000 a year.The threat of unemployment is expected to be visible in March, when new graduates are set to enter the job market.

However, it is probable that economic growth may not reach 4 per cent as earlier expected.

Consumption and investment slowed in March, as economic growth decelerated further, Pannee Sathavarodom, the director general of the Fiscal Policy Office said yesterday."

And

"A report by Macquarie Research on Thursday said that with the ongoing political turmoil it was pessimistic about the growth outlook of Thailand, dashing hopes of a fourth-quarter recovery.

It has downgraded the Thai economic growth forecast from 4.5 per cent to 3.5 per cent."

Full Article here:

http://nationmultimedia.com/2007/04/28/hea...es_30032932.php

Edited April 28, 2007 by ChiangMaiAmerican

[Mid]

[ChiangMaiAmerican]

Finance ministry sees lower GDP growth

(TNA) – Concerned about impacts from the private investment and consumption slowdown, the Finance Ministry plans to announce next week that it is reducing its gross domestic product (GDP) growth estimate for this year to something under 4 per cent.

Pannee Sathavarodom, director-general of the Fiscal Policy Office, said the country’s economic conditions in March had still been pressed by the continued investment and consumption slowdown.

Full story here:

http://bangkokpost.com/breaking_news/break...s.php?id=118391

[dogleg]

"name the hedge funds."

See the adverts at the top of this page.

[blizzard]

the nightlife is still here . is an answer why ameicans should come here...lol. it hanst gone anywhere.