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dcutman

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Posts posted by dcutman

  1. Very Happy i have not read these stupid, pathetic conspiracy theorists spouting bile. Very bad weather stopped the search for the passengers/flight, for a period of time, that answers the question on why didnt the authorities act quicker/

    Ignorance is bliss I guess.

    It took 50 minutes for them to acknowledge the plane had gone off the screen, Singapore had a C130 on the tarmac waiting to go 2 hours after that (if my memory serves me) but never received permission until the following day So the weather wasn't the only thing hindering and delaying the search.

    It is far from a conspiracy theory, no one knows if anyone did survive the impact but IF they did would they have survived the ocean for 3 days? The question is could anything have been done sooner and if so why wasn't it?

    Not 100% sure but I am pretty sure the Sings fly the C-130H, witch has modifications for maximum fuel capacity and extended range. 8++ hours (flying at low altitude and is an all weather aircraft. Same plane the hurricane hunters fly.

    Had this type of aircraft got out there in a more timely manner who knows what might have been found. I guess its possible the Sings pilots cant fly up to the aircraft's capabilities (witch I doubt) but they had the right, most capable, equipment.

    Of course all the expert pilots here on TVF say its near impossible to fly (SAR) in bad weather, even though many countries coast guard units do it daily.

    • Like 1
  2. @ Dcutman....

    I'm not speculating about the weather on the day of the incident...just look at the charts i posted. That's not speculation, thats fact. I have sailed in the same waters many times...it can be a nightmare...even on an 88 foot sloop, that is used to heavy weather. And no...at times CB.s don't move that fast...they can stick around a while & pile up with their neighbour CBs. In that area of this planet, for that matter all of Indo...the weather is very strange and can be very lethal. Spend some down there & you'll perhaps understand what I'm expounding upon. Yes it is nice down there many times of the year...but when it turns nasty...well...you gotta be there to experience it. Sea, Airl or Land...it don't matter when it goes to shit...it just does. And why complain because it took em 3 days to begin finding stuff even if close to the last known position after what I posted concerning the weather...hey man...can you do a better job? I sure as hell couldn't have. To me the SAR crews did a fantastic job. I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree on this subject.

    Yeh, I guess we are gonna have to disagree. Not only on aircraft but the 30+ navy (from varying countries ) ships. The plane was lost on radar in a spot, apparently nobody could or did go to that spot to begin the search until nearly three days later. I have no idea of the circumstances of the weather hampering search efforts, but appears the search effort was not any where near the last position the flight lost contact from the beginning. Did some military or govt genius send the search party to a location they thought it should be instead of starting at the point of last contact?

    I doubt there was, but if, by miracle somebody could have been rescued alive on the first day, how heart breaking would that be now?

  3. I will put in my to cents in as like most TV posters I have no direct information but can speculate like many do.

    I do fly a little, have some experience with accidents and rescue.

    1/ The accident was a convergence of several mistakes or circumstances coming together weather being one.

    2/ Some of the bodies having clothes missing when recovered as has been suggested is due to rapid deceleration.

    either mid air but more likely the plane hitting the water.

    3/ Everyone died on impact going down with the plane, not to sound grizzly but the bodies are now floating

    to the surface as they bloat and start to float.

    4/ SAR flight and crews, fly in the most appalling conditions when no one in there right mind would fly let alone fly

    1500 feet above the hard deck in gale force conditions.

    5/ Anybody who has sailed the area in good weather knows the weather had to be awful at sea level not just the

    sky. The area is full of fishing boats and the plane would probably have hit a fishing boat and in the very least been spotted

    by one of the boats. So I conclude the fishing fleet must have been in harbor.

    6/ Sad to say Mayday (the TV program) will have lots of material for shows from this year. The FAA will continue to learn

    from these accidents and flying will be safer in the future. Never 100% safe, but safer.

    4/ SAR flight and crews, fly in the most appalling conditions when no one in there right mind would fly let alone fly

    1500 feet above the hard deck in gale force conditions.

    5/ Anybody who has sailed the area in good weather knows the weather had to be awful at sea level not just the

    sky. The area is full of fishing boats and the plane would probably have hit a fishing boat and in the very least been spotted

    by one of the boats. So I conclude the fishing fleet must have been in harbor.

    It was a thunderstorm, not a cat 5 typhoon. They go as fast as they come. Lets not try to be so dramatic.

  4. Here's the weather on day 2...look at the left side of centre for the region, good for air search IMO judging by the satpic without any wind or pressure data available on the chart.

    attachicon.gifcMCIRNegWorld.jpg

    Yes it's now day 3 and the operation has moved from search, rescue (all dead most likely) into the recovery mode....picking up the easy bits first then when the salvage ships & possibly a submersible or two arrive the harder to locate bits will be located & raised & then we may finally know what happened.

    For the pic I originally posted though...a few hours after the event may be left wide open to speculation especially if that red blob with the black centre ( North of Surabaya) was moving NW...towards the point of last contact. That may complicate

    matters relating to SAR wouldn't it? The C-130 is a very capable aircraft and no it was not designed for low altitude missions save for very short durations...it was designed to carry a very heavy load and if need be deliver it at low altitude on a short runway... not cruise at low altitude....that gobbles fuel to fast. During SAR flights one flies at perhaps 2000 feet to survey a wide area then descend lower upon seeing (maybe) items of interest related to the SAR mission. An aircraft just doesn't head out from base at 500 meters for the duration of said mission...again too much fuel expended equals not much time on station. Plus...since nobody on this forum was in the area on the day of the event...we know zero about the visibility. What if the vis was around 500 meters horizontally? What if it was zero? So your logic seems to be to launch a SAR Herc in weather that may have been shit with zero vis...for what? Endanger the SAR crew & aircraft and accomplish nothing except compound an already shit situation. You must remember that winds in a CB or any large weather cell not only blow in a horizontal manner in all directions at times, they also blow (move) in a verticle manner (+ & -) and that the wind at sea level may be very strong ie...F5+ under that cell. Sure...you go take your Herc in there...I'll go get some coffee & come look for you when the storm calms down or moves well outta the way.

    Thunderstorms are a bitch I am sure. But they usually last for a short amount of time in any one area. As I said before, I am not laying blame on the search/rescue crews, They follow orders. Is all I am saying is the plane lost, was found almost in the exact position last seen, even after nearly three days. I would have to assume if the weather was as bad as you think, and speculate, the wreckage would be way farther from the last known location reported.

  5. @ Dcutman & EwO...

    I'm not a SAR expert, however I used to pilot a T-28 quite a bit in my younger days in all sorts of fine weather except a couple nasty squalls in the PI which happen quite often & made me appreciate what my instructor & his evil ways taught me. That said I do know a few SAR crews and have high respect for them and what they do in all sorts of weather...especially when sane flight crews wouldn't venture outside any hangar.

    From a T-28 pilots POV in a squall...trying to keep aloft when your altitude & roll is all over the place, save for where you want it to be, is quite a task. The same can apply to a C-130 or a P-3 at any altutude and believe me you don't ever want to be down low; as Dcutman said...3-400 meters! That would be sheer suicide, especially if a nasty wind shear slammed you into the water or land. You're better off higher if possible to get there safely. If not you don't fly and wait for the weather to "clear"...in a sense, not meaning blue skies either...just a bit less "bumpy" and not so opaque when you need to look out the windows to spot a basketball sized object from say 500 meters altitude...nearly impossible on a calm sunny day even. There are many more variables and they can change in an instant, especially if the weather is similar to the graphic I posted. One main rule of SAR is to never allow yourself and your vessel (air or sea) to become another reason to launch more SAR assets. Plus...not every nation on this planet has the latest SAR gadgets on their aircraft or ships that make looking for a small object(s) on the sea surface much easier...such as LIDAR or NIR gear or special radars etc.

    Many nations just have crew with fairly decent eyeballs. BTW most radars cannot differentiate objects on the surface from sea returns on the radar operators display when in clear weather...let alone in a storm. One needs a radar specifically designed for SAR work (Google). SAR ain't easy, no walk in the park on a sunny

    day with the GF. It's hard work, very tiring, extremely monotonous verging on heavy boredom and many times fruitless. Hell even the men & women who fly on purpose into typhoons & hurricanes...sometimes end up needing SAR and of these times...some are never found...even though this is few & far between.

    Anybody can scold or question why it took so long to launch SAR crews and why their first choice of places to look was where they did look and I reckon there's as many reasons for this as there are certified SAR crews on the planet. But you must remember...the SAR crews had only last position and that position may not have been that accurate in the first place. Remember...the entire area is a massive thunderstorm factory when the weather turns to shit and the winds can toss an aluminum tube almost anywhere...not just straight down as many would think.

    Unless you have ever been in an aircraft in near 0/0 visibility whilst being tossed every which way and other ways...you will not understand...you will ever understand. When the turbulence you feel in that big commercial 747 or 777 or whatever seems a bit "bumpy"...and you get a tad bit nervous & fasten that seat belt...remember,

    it can get much worse...at any time...much worse.

    The SAR crews in Indo have done a great job IMO...weather considered...had it been a sunny day then I'd feel differently. Had it been a sunny day perhaps QZ8501 would have safely arrived in Singapore. But it wasn't a fine day. It was shit weather all over the region. Don't blame the SAR crew...point the poopy finger at the ATC centre who cleared em for flight and the corporate greed that most likely ensured they got airborne. And while at it...condemn Indo ATC for cocking up clearances for altitude and storm avoidance. The pilot was very experienced...geeze he once flew F-16's for quite a while and so far as is known...had a perfect flying record.

    Regarding SAR...here's an experiment for you...take your gold necklace, if you don't have one go out & buy one, grab a friend and go out to an open field that is at least a hectare square. Be sober. Close your eyes or have said friend blindfold you then toss your gold necklace far over your shoulder (backwards so you can't see/hear where it lands). Keeping the blindfold on or your eyes closed have your friend spin you around till dizzy. Remove the blindfold/open your eyes and go look for that necklace. Not easy is it.

    That's what SAR is like most times.

    Ok, lets look at the weather when the plane went down.

    xpost-146250-0-10651800-1419941161_thumb

    Obviously thunder storms move, what was the weather like a few hours after this event? I cant find anything, It could have been worse or it could have been much better, I dont know. In any case how about day Two? We are on day three now. I am not blaming the SAR crews. But somebody screwed the pootch some where.

    I also believe the c-130 is quite capable at four or 500 meters in just about any weather condition, after all, low altitude missions was what is was designed for.

    • Like 1
  6. @ sunshine 51, quotes got me.

    I dont know. They sent search aircraft out that day, as far as I am aware, three c-130's, I believe. If a c-130 is flying a 3 or 400 meters or any where below cloud cover, expanding out in circles, from the exact spot were ACT lost contact, wreckage would not have been spotted?

    I find it hard to believe. I also find it hard to believe now, this is where the search started.

    The Singaporeans had the engines running at 9.30am and ready to go. It took 5 hours for Jakarta to confirm they were needed. Yes, probably everyone dead in the accident but a whole day was lost by slow response

    Did the Sings. go to the last known location? Did the Indonesians, that were handling the aircraft at the time, give the Sings the right location? Was anybody searching this location in the hours after gone missing?

    Does not seem so to me, IMO. It does appear this aircraft went straight down from it last known contact, being found only a few files away from it, after nearly 3 days.

  7. @ sunshine 51, quotes got me.

    I dont know. They sent search aircraft out that day, as far as I am aware, three c-130's, I believe. If a c-130 is flying a 3 or 400 meters or any where below cloud cover, expanding out in circles, from the exact spot were ACT lost contact, wreckage would not have been spotted?

    I find it hard to believe. I also find it hard to believe now, this is where the search started.

  8. 36 hours later a plane spots debris right over the spot where the plane lost communication, mean while 30 ships have been searching 10,000 square miles yet never thought to look in the place it was lost. 36 wasted hours, the mind boggles.

    Within six miles of last known location, <deleted>, Its is hard to believe the search didnt start here and work out.

    Sad for the people who died......And am puzzled by them finding the plane 6 miles from

    point of last contact. Seems that would have been the first place they looked. Am I

    missing something here ?? Two and a half days later they finally look there ?? Sure

    hope nobody died while waiting in the water. :-(

    It blows my mind, this plane went missing early in the mourning. There was a full 8 hours of search time that day, had a search plane went to the exact last known location (apparently one didnt), could this plane been located the first day, even within hours of going missing?

    Here we are 3 days later. UFB!

    • Like 1
  9. Glad they apparently did such a sterling job during their audit.

    Is that 5000 tonnes approx?

    5000/19,000,000

    0.02%

    I guess Yingluck carried it away in her handbag

    in one place? I doubt they had 19.000.000.000 kg there.

    We are at 1.000.000.000.000 Baht damage at the moment.

    But they checked everywhere and found almost nothing missing, except this one warehouse where apparently a large percentage is missing.

    Amazing this. All these up country warehouses apparently clean as a button, but this one, just this one manages to keep outfoxing them with the same trick even.

    He must be a real mastermind this one.

    BANGKOK: -- The Office of Public Sector Anti-Corruption Commission (PACC) revealed Friday that more than 100,000 sacks of rice were missing from the government rice stockpiles kept at a private company in Pathum Thani province.

    Could very well be possible not all "private company warehouses" were checked. Could be many more of the same out there.

  10. Maybe I'm the only one who actually read the article. The pathologists said he had a blood alcohol level over 230mg/l . The drunk driving limit in the UK is 80 mg/l so she says.

    He was pretty wasted by any measure.

    Is it beyond the realms of possibility that he was just plain wasted and fell down the cliff??..

    The problem is that he was seen entering his cabin and going to bed, and the cabin was located nowhere near any point that he could have fallen into the water. He would have to have for some reason gotten up, gone out and walked a long distance, in the middle of the night, down many steep stairs, past the pool area, to have fallen into the water. No one saw him do this, and none of the friends and family with him could think of any reason why he would do that. They also report him to be coherent, despite having had much to drink, and certainly not being so drunk as to go stumbling about with no purpose.

    His hat, which he never went outside without wearing (sensitive about early baldness) was still in the cabin. So was his money and his phone, both of which he would be expected to take with him if he for some unknown reason he had gotten out of bed and gone out later on. It would be unlike him to go out on his own without calling the friends who were staying in the adjacent cabin. This is not to say it is impossible, but it is odd/ out of character.

    To get to near where one could fall into the water, he would have to walk down to the pool area (quite a distance down many rickety steps). Yet no-one, staff or other residents (at a crowded resort -- this was New Years) saw him come that way.

    Friends who were with him found what looked like it might be drag marks in the grass around the cabin's balcony when they searched the next morning. Not sure that this was what they were of course, but that is what it looked like to them. Unfortunately police declined to examine this or even go to his cabin.

    It is not beyond the realm of possibility, but it is hard given the specific circumstances to imagine a scenario in which an accidental fall all the way into the sea was likely. Maybe it happened, but given the circumstances there was certainly reason to consider and investigate the possibility of foul play.

    The problem is that he was seen entering his cabin and going to bed, and the cabin was located nowhere near any point that he could have fallen into the water.

    Why is that a problem? According to the Derby Telegraph his father walked him back (from a restaurant where the rest of the family and friends where present) to his cabin, at 1am in the morning and making sure he went to bed. It was reported that he was nearly 3 times above the limit as far as alcohol is concerned when driving in the UK, which means he must have been drunk. Otherwise I don’t think that fathers in Europe accompany there 25 year old sons to their rooms and make sure they go to bed.

    Is it so far fetched that he might have got up again after the father returned to the rest of the family and that he might have had an accident? Nothing is said about the friends and family and how much alcohol they had consumed and how reliable their testimonies have been. One paper reports he was last seen at 2am in the morning the other says it was 1am when the father got him into bed.

    The pathologists says that most of the injuries have occurred after death (coroner came to the conclusion he drowned) and the place below the cabins in the sea is covered with large rocks and a body drifting in the water and pushed against the rocks certainly will incur bruises and cuts. Nothing strange about it but it can’t be true because as the Thai experts already have concluded, he was murdered and after that beaten up, which doesn’t make any sense at all.

    Tracy said “Even in our shock and grief we knew it did not add up, he would never have gone swimming along and if he had fallen from his bungalow his body would have stopped on the rocks or been badly injured, it did not look as if he had been in the water for hours, there was still dried blood on his body” She told reporters that the police did not look in his room or seem to conduct any real investigation into his death. She also said that he had met a girl that he liked and wondered if that had in some way caused offence.

    An autopsy back in the UK revealed that Nick had drowned but had no broken bones that seemed strange if he had fallen 50 meters, the postmortem said that it was possible he was attacked before drowning. http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/767273-parents-of-nick-pearson-convinced-their-sons-death-on-koh-tao-was-murder

  11. I don't know the meter-age but the resort is way up on a steep hill. And there are rocks below any points at which one could fall into the sea.

    And no getting around that he was last seen going to bed, and that there is no place near his cabin from which he could have fallen into the sea, nor any known reason why he would have gotten out of bed and walked down to a place where a fall would be possible.

    None of us know what actually happened, whether it was a freak accident or foul play. But it is clear that the circumstances warranted a thorough police investigation. That this did not occur is, I think, the basis for the parents distrust and complaint.

    With your diplomatic response, you will still be labelled as a conspiracy theorist by the 4.

    Along with everybody else that has any questions about this death.

    • Like 2
  12. Absolutely thumbsup.gif

    For one whose posts contain the words 'pure speculation' in response to other posters so often, then its only fair your speculations are also pointed out

    No speculation in my post. Just cannot link to the source smile.png published in Thai and English.

    But the cherry picking remark was to the attempt to diminish the fact that their own lawyers stated that they confessed.

    Really, you honestly believe the B2 lawyers came out and told the world they had confessed the the murders? Exactly how many defense lawyers do you know that would do that? Wether the B2 confessed to them or not?

    Same goes for the human rights guy, there to protect their rights, why would he do that?

    Think about that for a minute.

    BTW this supposed confession happened on the 7th, I believe these two kids where finally brought to a police station on the 2nd, they had no council from the time of arrest/interrogation until then?

    I am pretty sure I read reports they actually didnt receive council until after the 10th of October.

  13. Pay the neighbours off to widen the road.

    Cheaper Charlie option no 1.

    They might as well be bribed as everyone else has.

    Except me...I am open to bribes.

    Show me the money.

    You pay my bar fine??? 555555

    You might want to check who the neighbors where that filed the complaint petition in the first place. Indictments for Lese Majeste have been rapant lately, and thats exactly what will happen to anybody that bitches to hard about this case.

  14. Pre-Trial: This period can last a few weeks or a few months depending on the courts caseload and the negotiated trial date. There is no discovery process in the Thai court system, so you will not have access to evidence before the trial. In general, there is little you can do to affect the way your case is presented. http://chiangmai.usconsulate.gov/service/legal-matters-in-thailand.html.

    Now if we can get past this, we can say the B2 defense team has little chance or a big hurdle to overcome. Those few TVF members that have already convicted these two young men to (possible) death, or at the least life imprisonment, to think of yourself, family members or people you know that could go through this same system.

    How vigorous would you defend the police or the Thai system then?

    But anyway the topic is about a letter these young men sent to their hero. Some on TVF said its not from these boys, and I say it is. these kids are and have been scared shitless for months, and they know they are gonna die unless somebody with power helps them. They dont have much of a chance anyway with the Thai system why hang em JD and JTJ , give a couple of days, weeks, months on this earth before they unjustly executed.

    The Pretrial is where evidence is presented -- it is called an evidentiary hearing in some places because it is where evidence is presented. Not all legal systems even have this just like not all legal systems have discovery processes similar to other places. Get over it as this is the system here and has been for a long time. Bottom line is the Prosecution is going to have to show enough of there evidence at this prelim to convince the court it is likely these two are guilty to have it move to trial. The defense doesn't have to show anything and smart defenses will do just this since it is unlikely they could win in a prelim but more likely their evidence would win in trial. In the US they have grand juries that can replace a Prelim and with a grand jury the defense cannot even present a case -- it is only the prosecution presenting evidence.

    Just is kind of silly to act like this is something new or unique in this case. Nobody seems to care about this process when it is Thais on trial. Many of the folks pretending to care now are the ones who often want to do away with a trial and hang em high with the first news report of an arrest on other threads.

    it is called an evidentiary hearing in some places because it is where evidence is presented. Not all legal systems even have this just like not all legal systems have discovery processes similar to other places. Get over it as this is the system here and has been for a long time.

    Tell me what civilized country does not have some sort of a discovery process?

  15. Thankfully there will be a trial soon!

    Yeah there will be, in fact it has been fast tracked a full two months. Whether that trial will be fair is already a big question.

    Firstly we have the family of the victims publishing a statement through the foreign office of the UK, which quite frankly is truly unbelievable, especially since that statement alluded to evidence which "appears to be powerful and convincing". Hence the FO directly interfering into a court case in Thailand that hasn't even started yet !

    and secondly the fact that the defense team does not know what the evidence is that will be submitted in two weeks time.

    In light of the above two points, there is justifiable concern that the upcoming court case will be anything but fair. Just as there is justifiable concern that the investigation into those murders was anything but fair and above board.

    Initial date has been set. This is likely to extend for months in the trial phase.

    Discovery is a two way street in Thailand. The defense doesn't know the prosecution's case nor does the prosecution know the defense case.

    The issues raised about the investigation should be part of the defense case.

    The family statement is irrelevant to the trial.

    My understanding is Dec. 26th is a Preliminary hearing for both sides to submit evidence. If the judge finds they are likely guilty based on the evidence presented at the prelim then it will go to trial. Not much different than other places.

    Bottom line is nothing different in how this case is going to be handled than all other cases here but this one may get fast tracked ensuring the defendants get a speedy trial due to all the conspiracy BS that has gone on online. Appears any extension are going to have to be at the request of the defense lawyers and not the state as to prevent more whining of how they are being held so long without trial.

    If the judge finds they are likely guilty based on the evidence presented at the prelim then it will go to trial. Not much different than other places.

    Not much different than, what other places? North Korea, China? Are you for real?

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