RedFxTrade

Europe .. seems to be slowly blowing up in front of our eyes - Will the US act before the same happens there ...

Greek Stocks And Bonds Are Imploding Right Now

Read more: http://www.businessi...r#ixzz1PKoI3OwY

It certainly is....Steep Rise in ECB Loans to Spanish Banks

The number of European Central Bank loans taken out by Spanish banks jumped by almost a quarter in May as rising Spanish government borrowing costs continued to take their toll on the country’s businesses.

Higher borrowing costs for Madrid are reflected in the cost of financing for banks and other companies in the eurozone’s fourth-largest economy, meaning lenders chose to borrow more from the ECB directly rather than access costly funding from the capital markets.

The amount Spanish banks borrowed directly from the ECB rose from €42bn in April to €53bn ($76.5bn) in May, according to data published on Tuesday by the Bank of Spain.

International investors have demanded a higher return to lend to Spain due to a combination of concerns over the deflation of its decade-long property bubble, stagnant economic growth, and the possibility of contagion from a Greek default.

I think what is hitting the markets really hard, is well a host of things....but was reading this morning that any roll over of greek maturities would mean that the whole Greek banking system would need to raise more money on top of the bailout money. Figure is around a 70 billion Euros...how on earth can the Greek banks raise that? Of course they cannot...so other countries will have to pay even more on top of the bailout.

On top of that French banks are not looking too healthy in this picture...expect a downgrade in the coming days...which will only add to the fear. Credit Agricole and Soc gen have exposure to Greek bonds,.,,,but thats not the main problem, they also own a couple of Greek banks, Emporiki and Geniki respectively, who have large exposure to the private sector economy in Greece and Greek Bonds...Emporiki have about 21 Billion in loans. In short French banks are directly exposed to Greek Bonds and the private sector of the Greek economy.

A quick glance at the Deposits and Loans side of the Emporiki balance sheet does not make good reading...Dear knows how much more deposits have leaked now. A near 18% drop in deposits YoY just in March and very little loan exposure reduction.

I m not sure where Naam gets this idea or figures from from that there is no run on deposits on Greek banks...

Really? The ECB in conjunction with the government officials of these countries agree that austerity measures must be forced through...The ECB has stated many times that austerity measures must be strictly implemented..This is Trichets wish.The people are not free, not yet anyway to default...as government in collusion with all these champagne socialists within the EU said no...

distortions such as using the expression "government officials" instead of "government" are not acceptable. i therefore refuse to waste my time with any discussion and limit myself to comments, e.g.

Not quite sure what you mean by distortions Naam?

-Trichet's wishes are the wishes of Merkel and Sarkozy,

Thats interesting. You see who really is pulling the strings? Its hard to know...but generally agree. It kind of throws a spanner in the works that the ECB is "strongly independent" as Trichet said last week. But I guess we all knew that...

-the ECB cannot force any government to implement austerity measures,

Again I agree...however, they can take decisions together with Merkel and Sarkozy (rather than government officials ) which amount to the same thing. The Greek Government obviously are going a long with it....and are using the heavy hand of the state to implement the plan. However, I do agree that it cannot be forced in the purest sense...but perhaps the Greek Gov will grow a set and gain a moral back bone and walk away

-the ECB cannot prevent a sovereign default if the government in power decides to default on the country's debt.

Agree...and this would be a wet dream for me, if Ireland, Greece, Portugal just decided to walk it, and give two fingers to the EU. By the way, I m not anti-European. Love Europe, dislike the EU.

Overall I agree with what your saying...the government in power holds the strongest hand at the table, but are too cozy with all the perks they receive within the EU. However, indirectly the decisions taken by Merkel, Sarkozy, ECB and the Greek Government are leading to an enforcement of austerity through violence and coercion. A dangerous precedent indeed.

period!

I think the lack of responses on this thread suggests that most of the present active members are comparatively new comers and that the old favourites have long gone.

It seems that Thai visa has a turnover of members about every 3 years.

Could be several reasons: some have left Thailand, died, banned, became bored or perhaps Thai visa is not as popular as it used to be?

I joined in 2005 when I was 24. Yes it says 2011 now....I didn't sign in for ages, forgot my username, and then saw the Twitter sign in facility and just used that a few months ago. I think people are forum bingers, akin to alcohol binge drinking. They go mad for a few weeks/months before calming down for a while. I m sure many people here have more than one username...over the years.

The ECB (European Central Bank)'s determination to force "austerity" on the periphery countries -- and to avoid debt restructuring at all costs -- is driving multiple generations to the brink.

what a load of crap! the ECB cannot force austerity on any EU member country. the governments of Greece and/or the other PIIGS states are free to default on their public debt and then face the consequences. perhaps one of us should inform Coelho, Papandreou, Zapatero, Berlusconi and the Irish dude to seek advice in Vegas? no hasty decisions till september!

I'll be giving my detailed thoughts on what is coming, and how to prepare, at Taipan's upcoming crisis and survival event in Las Vegas in September.

Really? The ECB in conjunction with the government officials of these countries agree that austerity measures must be forced through...The ECB has stated many times that austerity measures must be strictly implemented..This is Trichets wish.The people are not free, not yet anyway to default...as government in collusion with all these champagne socialists within the EU said no...Police move into Catalan square

According to eyewitnesses, riot police moved in to Placa de Catalunya between 7 and 8 am, firing rubber bullets, tear gas and baton-charging the protesters. Footage from the encampment shows police attacking peaceful demonstrators without prior provocation.

How about Greece..violence until dawn, 3 people killed, riot police fighting and quashing protesters, tear gas, rubber bullets...yes all very non forceful.....protesters storming parliament...grenades...Trichet might not be out firing rubber bullets himself, but it his policy, or the ECB's policy in conjunction with the government elites...It appears they are forcing it through via the heavy hand of the state, and if TRichet condemned this, then he could simply give into debt forgiveness...but he chooses not to....When I can into my car and drive, I m not the one making the car move, thats the engine components and the petrol...I m just sending signals through movement to implement the motion.

Your right in that these countries can just walk away and say fuc_k you to the ECB and the EU, but thats not happening due to wishes of the wanke_rs at higher levels within the EU, which go against the will of the people...so austerity is being forced due to the decisions of the ECB...as I said, the ECB are driving the car but they are not causing the motion...it takes two to tango

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mhHBFlz4hG0&feature=autoplay&list=PL070C30DF123BBA9B&index=2&playnext=2

Usmanov paints his vision for the way forward, and blames the current board of directors for failure to bring a trophy in 6 years. I have to agree with a lot of what Usmanov says here. I m surprised that he shows quite an astute understanding of football, which is unusual for these billionaires owners. Here is the article...Alisher Usmanov blames Arsenal board for trophy drought since 2005

............ [extracts deleted - see above] .........................

Unfortunately the American majority shareholder is trying to get rid of him I believe.

For sure, it looks as if Kroenke will be the main man...under unfortunate circumstances it might be said. With Danny Fizman selling his stake a few days before he died...its clear that he sold his stake due to illness rather than cashing in, and instead leaving the money to his family without the stress of running Arsenal.

Kroenke though seems not a bad option either. The silent man perhaps, but he will not be taking Arsenal over and using the club as collateral for debt financing such as happened at UTD. He believes in the self sustaining model...Director Gazadis who seems very astute seems to have a good relationship with Stan Kroenke. and just today Gazadis said it will a very busy summer for Arsenal in the transfer market, buying and selling. The latest is Gervinho from Lyon...

Anyway, you guys might want to bookmark this...it is a dedicated section to all transfer news, rumours and movements...

Transfer section

A small flurry of activity here today. Wonder what brought it all on.

Got an hour?

http://www.youtube.c...h?v=Uz2j3BhL47c

Wide ranging and making huge leaps from one event to the next. But enjoyable and thought provoking nonetheless.

I liked the "Revenge of the Asians" slant at the end.

Happy days, I ll have to watch part 2 and 3. I saw part 1 on BBC...Rand is a scary looking women. No second guesses who wears the trousers in her relationships...Quite a sad figure at the end, but she was very resolute in her beliefs...The guy who produced the show seemed to be coming at it from a center left position. I think he dealt more with symptoms that causes overall, but a very interesting program none the less...and nice to see a program that does not blow bubbles up Greenspans ass.

The Collateral Crunch

Interesting article from FT Alphaville The Collateral Crunch

I wonder if this would be bearish for the USD or not? I think over the medium term and long term for sure....as no doubt they will print in some form and raise the ceiling. However, by its very nature default and outright default is deflationary. Rising T-Bond yields would put of course put a crunch on housing and default rates throughout the economy. Rising yields of course is a tightening in and off itself.However, I would entertain the thought that in the very short term the USD could actually spike higher in this type of crunch scenario. This has been what Bob Hoye has been saying would happen, the bond market would tank, but the USD would strengthen due to a higher demand for cash throughout the economy. Also Russell Napier painted this picture that for the first time in 80 years, the stock and bond market would collapse together. I actually think the USD might strengthen initially as crazy as that sounds if said event does happen.

After all the day a couple of months ago when the US credit outlook was downgraded to negative the USD actually shot higher, after initially spiking lower, wrong footing many traders. Scary prospect indeed if bond and the stock market went down together.

It gets less attention than its credit-denominated relative, but the 2008 financial crisis actually sprung from a massive ‘collateral crunch’ within the shadow banking system.

Read Manmohan Singh on rehypothecation, or try to get your hands on Matt King’s seminal ‘Are the brokers broken?’ note. The Citigroup credit analyst warned just two weeks before Lehman’s collapse that “brokers’ and banks’ gross usage of repo, revealed in footnotes of 10-Qs, far exceeds that which shows up on balance sheet. Although in principle much of this is for clients (mostly hedge funds) it still makes their business as a whole much more dependent on the continued availability of repo funding than might otherwise be appreciated.”

No kidding. In 2008, the use of so-called toxic assets to secure repo funding very suddenly became unacceptable to other banks, causing financial meltdown.

Back then, the solution was for Fed chairman Ben Bernanke to say stuff like this: “We are encouraging firms to improve their management of liquidity risk and reduce over time their reliance on tri-party repos for overnight financing of less-liquid forms of collateral.”

Now we have that emphasis on the safest of collateral assets — government bonds, and especially US Treasuries. Some $4,000bn of these are currently used in the repo market, according to JPMorgan. Presumably, what you wouldn’t want is any further reduction in the amount of decent, liquid collateral available to a still nervous-financial system.

On that note — here’s a nice tidbit from Monday’s Financial Times:

Some of Wall Street’s biggest banks are preparing to cut their use of US Treasuries in August as a precaution against any turbulence that could follow if warring Republicans and Democrats fail to increase soon the US debt ceiling, a senior bank chief said.

One strategy, which bank executives only agreed to discuss without attribution due to the political sensitivities related to discussing Treasury debt, is to have more cash on hand to put up as collateral against derivatives and other transactions, decreasing the financial system’s reliance on Treasuries.

Combine a shift away from US Treasuries with everything else that’s currently happening in the collateral sphere. The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago has a nifty new software programme to help banks estimate the amount of assets that may be needed once stuff like central counterparty clearing comes into effect. There’s been a worldwide shift towards collateralised lending just when upcoming Basel III rules for banks are busy redefining what can count as liquid or safe assets. And much more.

Now go back to that UST point, specifically.

JP Morgan managing director Matthew Zames warned back in April that:

A Treasury default could severely disrupt the $4 trillion Treasury financing market, which could sharply raise borrowing rates for some market participants and possibly lead to another acute deleveraging event. Because Treasuries have historically been viewed as the world’s safest asset, they are the most widely-used collateral in the world and underpin large parts of the financing markets. A default could trigger a wave of margin calls and a widening of haircuts on collateral, which in turn could lead to leveraging and a sharp drop in lending.

Shades of 2008, that.

Gold is testing that minor trend line on daily again today I expect it to break and will enter short when it retests and confirms as resistance.

http://imageshack.us...potgolddfb.png/

Silver broke out of it's bear flag and provided a good entry on retest this morning, however looking extremely oversold on lower time frames and volume is light so have moved stop to break even in case this proves to be a fake out.

http://imageshack.us...tsilverdfb.png/

Interesting. Youre charting (trading?) Spot metals and talking of light volume, so where do you get this data please? And, 'extremely oversold on lower timeframes' is refering to what? Thanks.

Here is a chart of the intraday futures for Silver Comex July contract....Yes pretty light volume...

Guys, do not know where you stand on Global Warming as caused by man...personally, I think its a load of <deleted>...with those emails from climategate saying stuff like "if only we can get the medieval warming period taken off the graph" and many scientists pointing out that Greenland has been well green before and the expert on polar bear being banned from the Copenhagen summit as he said that there are more Polar bears than ever now...The amount of money it is costing us is unreal...15-20% on EU gas bills, flights alone...you pay about £130 quid for a flight from the UK to Bangkok in tax...however, just saw this video yesterday and I m gobsmacked at the gra graphic nature of it....and how extreme the "eco fascists" have become...this video was made by the 10;10 body, which aims for everyone to reduce their carbon emissions by 10% a year...They have pulled the video, but its now all over the internet...unbelievable. Where is the room for open debate and reason?

And with this story this morning...Top scientist resigns, admist GW is a scam

I think Trichet is praying ..

EURCHF touched all time low 1.2000 earlier as Greek deposits are now in accelerated transfer mode..........

Greek, Portuguese and Irish CDS All At Record Wides

http://www.zerohedge...ll-record-wides

I wonder who he is praying to...perhaps Lakshmi, The Indian God of Money and Good Fortune

Spanish yields are looking dangerously like breaking out also...to the up side...lower highs and squeezing to the top of the range highs...

Whatever you say Naam I don't believe a word any of them say - They are all just protecting their own butts / Trichet is as slippery as Greenspan used to be

i fully agree with you Churchill but that's besides the point i referred to.

Naam to be honest I don't think anyone thinks Trichet takes the decisions by himself. Its just used as a proxy to refer to an institution, the way its done with Bernanke...Steve Jobs at Apple, you will see the headline s "Jobs decides...blah, blah blah.." But Jobs will have consulted with all relevant people before announcing a decision....or Branson at Virgin, Michael O'Leary at Ryanair...in second thoughts O'Leary probably does makes the decisions by himself...on a lighter note, O'Leary is hilarious, very astute though...A Fat Tax, Online Gambling, charging for toilets, announcing his strategy at a German press conference will introducing Free Blowjobs in long haul flights...Ryanair pay very little on advertising as O'leary's rants get him the news headlines.

Surprised that economy is worth £32 million in bitcoins...thats quite large...thats why the Gov wants a crackdown. Pretty sure they will be unsuccessful. The internet is the 21 st century reformation...

I wouldn't bet against a successful government crackdown if they decide to but more likely they have already put back door access into this currency so they can see exactly who is trading how much with whom.

No doubt they ll try, and could be successful in this instance. However, if this idea or concept takes off (that is not for me to say, or anyone, but rather the aggregate will of individuals) then there will be many many more like Bitcoin that will pop up. After all they have not been able to stop Wikileaks, and look at the number of websites that are popping up within the new sphere of Journalism 2.0. Opensource, Projectcensored etc etc...Wikileaks might be just like the Napster of its day...Twitter has blown apart High Court Injunction laws in the UK...and even the most brutal of regimes have been unable to stop activists forming through the use of social media and mobile technology. Perhaps they will track down Bitcoin,,,but if its like anything else in life and the internet, for everyone they catch, three more will spring up in its place, if the will and belief of individuals is behind it. Twitter has been pretty mad, you hear news on it sometimes a few hours before it makes the main news channels.

Students graduating a quarter mil in debt today have no chance

that sum and my limited time spent at a U.S. university lets me assume that there's something wrong with the education system, i.e. colleges/universities are much too expensive compared to Europe.

example: the maximum student loan in Germany one can get nowadays is ~€ 8,000 / $ ~12,000 per annum. assuming an average duration of 5-6 years to obtain a master's degree the max total debt is less than 30% of the equivalent "U.S. debt".

Well as usual I was overstating the case a bit but there are graduates from some private professional schools with that kind of debt.

Just saw this-

It's a hard road. There's no escape clause, either. Can't claim bankruptcy. They'll follow you to your grave and to your children's grave. Really sad. Raping the future before it even get's a chance.

And on a brighter note....The "End of Work" and the Coming Revolution in Education and An Open-Source Web-Enabled Revolution in Education.

From a personal perspective. I decided against university after one year, and decided to teach myself. A couple of people told me a few years ago, that with information for free on the internet you can teach yourself. I decided to go this path...I have been able to specialise in my area from the word go, and mostly for free. I think I have learned much more than if I had went to university and have been able to travel and live in Asia for long periods while still continuing my own learning....After all would you rather take marketing advice from Richard Branson, founder of Virgin and a billionaire or some professor/lecturer of marketing in a university who earns £40,000 a year?

All these students who are protesting and complaining about the hikes in student fees and cuts to arts etc etc should stop moaning and learn to think and fend for themselves through direct and empirical experience in the area they are passionate about. The Lefty Arts students who are most against student fee rises should look at all those artists and musicians, writers who did not go to university. The irony being that the stuff that is studied at uni came from people who did not go to university. Instead they drew their inspiration from their own self, and produced great works.

On Education....

One of the few things a person is willing to pay for and not get.

William Lowe Bryan (1860–1955)

One of the chief obstacles to intelligence and freedom of thought.

Bertrand A. Russell (1872-1970)

Good Jim Rogers Interview with Jim Puplava..Rogers

I know not much about Bitcoins apart from the basics....anyway, its strange that when I read this thread I start to see articles everywhere on them...The national UK Guardian has a story on it today...one of the largest papers in the UK...a Leftie paper...Bitcoin: the hacker currency that's taking over the web.

Surprised that economy is worth £32 million in bitcoins...thats quite large...thats why the Gov wants a crackdown. Pretty sure they will be unsuccessful. The internet is the 21 st century reformation...

As if there is not enough for markets to be concerned about, I have been keeping an eye on the escalating dispute between China and Vietnam over the last couple of weeks. A couple of interesting developments over the weekend which will not please China...Vietnam Seeks US Support in China Dispute...Also "diplomat" Clinton was in Africa over the weekend saying that the Chinese were more or less Colonialising Africa again which did not go down too well with the Chinese. More and more I think politics the and Geo-political backdrop is going to become more and more important in the on going crisis.

Vietnam has called on the US and other nations to help resolve the escalating territorial disputes in the resource-rich South China Sea, in a move likely to anger Beijing, which opposes what it sees as outside interference.

Tensions between China and Vietnam continued to rise over the weekend, ahead of live-fire drills planned by Vietnam’s navy on Monday on an islet around 20 miles from the coast of central Vietnam, which Hanoi described as “routine”.

Stirred by a number of maritime confrontations with China over recent weeks, hundreds of Vietnamese took part in rare anti-China protests on Sunday for the second straight weekend, with the usually draconian police allowing the demonstrations to take place.

“China is running an information campaign to blind people,” said Pham Gia Minh, a 55-year-old investment consultant who attended a protest outside the Chinese embassy in Hanoi. “We have to let people understand that we want peace but when the aggressor comes we will stand up to them.”

In addition to China and Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Taiwan claim some or all of the territory in the contested area of the South China Sea, which is believed to contain vast oil and gas reserves and incorporates key trade routes and abundant fish stocks.

The Vietnamese government has ratcheted up its rhetoric in recent weeks amid growing public disquiet over perceived maritime bullying by China, which dominated Vietnam for 1000 years and fought a brief but bloody border war against it in 1979. At the weekend Vietnam’s foreign ministry said that it would “welcome” efforts by the US and other nations to help resolve the South China Sea dispute and maintain peace and stability.

Such sentiments are unlikely to go down well in Beijing, which insists that the long-running row over the South China Sea must be resolved on a purely bilateral basis.

China reacted angrily last July when Hillary Clinton, US secretary of state, insisted that the South China Sea was of strategic importance to the US and offered to act as a mediator.

The US said on Friday that is was “troubled” by the latest developments in the South China Sea, with Mark Toner, a state department spokesman, warning that “shows of force” only increase tensions, which have been on the rise in recent weeks.

Hanoi and Beijing have traded accusations of infringement of sovereignty and harassment of their fishing and oil exploration vessels and China has also clashed with the Philippines in a similar fashion.

“China’s behaviour has gone from assertive to aggressive,” said Ian Storey, a fellow at the Institute for Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore and an expert on maritime security in the South China Sea.

In the latest incident, last Thursday, Vietnam claimed that, for the second time in recent weeks, Chinese boats had trespassed onto its territory and deliberately tried to cut undersea cables deployed by a ship hired by PetroVietnam, the state oil and gas monopoly. China dismissed the allegations, claiming that the boats were fishing in its sovereign waters when they were “illegally chased away by armed Vietnamese ships,” endangering the fishermen’s lives.

The Chinese government remained silent on Sunday, but Hanoi’s latest move is likely to infuriate Beijing as China insists its territorial disputes in the South China Sea must be dealt with bilaterally.

A year ago, Beijing decisively rejected remarks by Hillary Clinton in which the US secretary of state called peace in the region a US national interest and called for a multilateral approach in resolving the disputes.

A regional security expert at National Defense University in Beijing called Hanoi’s latest move a provocation. “This is calculated to provoke a reaction in China which they can then dismiss as aggressive,” said the expert who declined to be named because he was not authorized to speak to foreign media.

The growing tension in the South China Sea also triggered angry reactions among nationalist Chinese on the internet.

”If a single shell falls into Chinese waters, including disputed waters, we should shoot to kill. Can’t we do what North Korea can?” wrote one user on Tiexue, an online bulletin board popular with military enthusiasts and nationalist web users, in reaction to Vietnam’s plans for naval exercises in the area on Monday.

Usmanov paints his vision for the way forward, and blames the current board of directors for failure to bring a trophy in 6 years. I have to agree with a lot of what Usmanov says here. I m surprised that he shows quite an astute understanding of football, which is unusual for these billionaires owners. Here is the article...Alisher Usmanov blames Arsenal board for trophy drought since 2005

The 57-year-old, who is not an Arsenal director, even though he owns almost 30% of Arsenal Holdings, believes self-interest among the board members is stymieing the Gunners' chances of on-field success.

Usmanov also claimed there would need to be a switch in emphasis if he were to end up on the board.

He told the News of the World: "If the role of a board member is to oversee a trophyless period, while making significant personal profits and asking fans to pay inflation-busting ticket price increases then, no, I would not want to be on the board.

"If instead it is to try to deliver sustained success, to increase your personal investment in the club, to help develop the commercial position and to ensure the fans have a say in the running of the club then, yes, I think I certainly have something to contribute.

"In terms of doing things differently, let me give you a very clear example. Arsenal has all of its major commercial contracts coming up for renewal in the next couple of years.

Related Articles

"It's no secret that to maximise the value of those you want to have success on the field and be winning trophies. To do that you need to invest now in building a winning team. This is simple commercial logic. Whether it comes to pass, we shall see."

Arsenal's season collapsed in spectacular fashion following their League Cup final defeat to Birmingham in February, with their challenges in the Champions League, FA Cup and Premier League all crumbling in the wake of that Wembley reverse.

And Usmanov is of the opinion that manager Arsène Wenger needs to be given the financial backing to bring in experienced players to complement the crop of talented youngsters the club have at their disposal.

"There is a widely-held view among most commentators - and one that I agree with - that the club needs to stiffen the defensive spine of the team, with a dominant keeper, strong centre-halves and a powerful defensive midfielder in the mould of Claude Makelele," he said.

"The Premier League is one of the most competitive in the world and whilst we have consistently challenged for honours, the club needs to develop talent and buy top-class players to win the trophies we all crave. This requires greater investment which, I believe, has been lacking thus far.

"What however is not clear is whether the board shares this view. For too long they have seemed happy to sanction second, third and fourth as being acceptable, whilst at the same time they are planning to sell their shares."

Historically, there's also been several years when gold decreased in price. Historically....and a few that were not that long ago.

There are no one way tickets....that is the biggest argument you hear from people that are skeptical of gold. "did you know that gold can fall".."or if you bought gold in 1980, what good would it have been"...firstly paper currencies have been falling for 100's of years, non-stop, and more acutely in the last 100, look at the price of a bushel of wheat now compared to 1920's....secondly, you base any investment on fundamentals and valuation metrics at the time...you buy when something is cheap relative to something else, and sell when its over valued relative to something else...thats investment in a nutshell. Nothing ever goes up all the time forever....There are forces at work that prevent that happening. Even the Zimbabwe Dollar will increase at some point relative to gold as hard as that is to believe....but longer term you are relying on the scoundrels in government to have integrity and honesty, and be a custodian of your money......The buying gold argument in 1980 is a silly one, as interest rates were going up...the move was parabolic...today you need to go with what is happening, and act accordingly. Gold is still very good value at this time. When its not, whenever that will be, there will be signs to watch for , then you can sell. Simples.

Next week could get very interesting. With Portuguese and Spanish spreads over Bunds reaching EU era records, and it looks like there is no solution to the Greece situation, the potential for a credit crunch is getting more real by the day...Open Revolt Against Trichet: German Politicians Demand "Private Creditor Involvement"; Finland Support for Bailout Vanishes.

This is in my view the best post on the debt dynamics of what is surrounding the EU Credit Markets-A Gathering Storm..I highly recommend this article.A precipice run on Greek bank deposits seems to in process...

James Grant of Interest Rate Observer also said this week that the ECB is factually insolvent. For all the talk of the horrific state of the FEDs balance sheet, is the ECB's more acute and in a worse state?

The way the USD closed on Friday, suggests things are not well, with it once of its strongest up days this year.

With the fundamental back drop and with key equity valuations showing warning signs, and the market moving from oversold to more oversold, shows that a new down trend could in play. Add to that break down this week in the Shanghai composite. Ominous signs indeed. The Q-ratio is showing 50% over valued by historical standards, Margin debt on the NYSE is at the levels seen just before Bear Stearns collapsed. Higher commodity prices are sucking money out of the economy as money moves to the producers(the small group) away from the consumers( the large group)

Junk bonds failed to make new highs with the stock market peak, which is a warning sign, and has now collapsed in recent days.

The price action in rubber, steel, copper etc has been breaking down and diverging with the rest of the market for a few months now, which also does not bode well.

I expect when the markets move from oversold into more oversold, we could get a bounce up, however, when this condition of moving into over sold to more oversold by key market breadth indicators, it is usually a warning sign to sell the bounce.

The retailers have been aggressively buying into the silver decline also...oanda position ratios These have proven to be a good proxy and contrarian...Retailers are now over 80% net long silver, and this has been growing all week. Lets hope they wrong once again, and we can get silver down to the $26 mark. The USD ratios are swinging slowly but surely in favour of the USD, with more and more retailers getting short the USD as it rises. A contrarian buy signal. By the way this signal of using these ratios tests out very well.

The economy is deteriorating fast, and debt dynamics are horrible. The UK is in a recession IMO...the industrial production numbers out yesterday were horrendous, and is a world wide trend. Of course slowing industrial production is not only a signal that things are bad in the said country, but that demand is weakening in other countries also, as a functions of slowing exports...

Apparently there's a lot more US exposure to the PIIGS mess than I had at first realized. No problem if they let insolvent US counterparty banks fail, but big story if they try once again to lay it off on the US taxpayer. Not that the government cares what US citizens consumers want.

http://streetlightbl...ng-on-pigs.html

From what I can gather in the event of a credit event, the US banks will have to pay out on the Greek CDS...and they have their own exposure. The whole thing is so inter-tangled who knows what mess it could leave. But yes I suspect that any more bailouts will be met with "distaste" by many Americans this time around....

I heard a some market chatter yesterday on the market news feeds, which I find interesting...Apparently one/or more of the Greek creditors, ie, banks are going to refuse roll over of the debt, and basically refuse and are taking large short positions in the Euro to offset the losses on the Greek debt. Now if that is the case, which seems like a smart move if you can be the first or second out of the burning building,it could turn very interesting indeed. No doubt the Euro would plunge, if they have built a short, they could easily offset the loss and get the dam_n loss of the balance sheet and move on...

Next week could get very interesting. With Portuguese and Spanish spreads over Bunds reaching EU era records, and it looks like there is no solution to the Greece situation, the potential for a credit crunch is getting more real by the day...Open Revolt Against Trichet: German Politicians Demand "Private Creditor Involvement"; Finland Support for Bailout Vanishes.

This is in my view the best post on the debt dynamics of what is surrounding the EU Credit Markets-A Gathering Storm..I highly recommend this article.A precipice run on Greek bank deposits seems to in process...

James Grant of Interest Rate Observer also said this week that the ECB is factually insolvent. For all the talk of the horrific state of the FEDs balance sheet, is the ECB's more acute and in a worse state?

The way the USD closed on Friday, suggests things are not well, with it once of its strongest up days this year.

With the fundamental back drop and with key equity valuations showing warning signs, and the market moving from oversold to more oversold, shows that a new down trend could in play. Add to that break down this week in the Shanghai composite. Ominous signs indeed. The Q-ratio is showing 50% over valued by historical standards, Margin debt on the NYSE is at the levels seen just before Bear Stearns collapsed. Higher commodity prices are sucking money out of the economy as money moves to the producers(the small group) away from the consumers( the large group)

Junk bonds failed to make new highs with the stock market peak, which is a warning sign, and has now collapsed in recent days.

The price action in rubber, steel, copper etc has been breaking down and diverging with the rest of the market for a few months now, which also does not bode well.

I expect when the markets move from oversold into more oversold, we could get a bounce up, however, when this condition of moving into over sold to more oversold by key market breadth indicators, it is usually a warning sign to sell the bounce.

The retailers have been aggressively buying into the silver decline also...oanda position ratios These have proven to be a good proxy and contrarian...Retailers are now over 80% net long silver, and this has been growing all week. Lets hope they wrong once again, and we can get silver down to the $26 mark. The USD ratios are swinging slowly but surely in favour of the USD, with more and more retailers getting short the USD as it rises. A contrarian buy signal. By the way this signal of using these ratios tests out very well.

The economy is deteriorating fast, and debt dynamics are horrible. The UK is in a recession IMO...the industrial production numbers out yesterday were horrendous, and is a world wide trend. Of course slowing industrial production is not only a signal that things are bad in the said country, but that demand is weakening in other countries also, as a functions of slowing exports...

You know,it must be terrible to have money.!

Worrying about if your investments have gone up...down or even dissapeared.

I occaisonaly watch Bloomburg TV....which I understand is ESSENTIAL if you want to preserve or amass your fortune.

I read....somebody (who I have never heard of ) says that because of something somewhere the price of oil will increase!. So I guess I am expected to rush and buy oil shares.

Two minutes later I read that someone else (who I also have never heard of) says that with global trading in a decline the demand for oil will drop. So,I guess I am now rushing to my broker and telling him to sell my oil shares.

I read that similar tales of woe are affecting commodity prices....so sell...or buy..or ???

The worry and the brokers fees would be giving me a heart attack I am sure. Maybe thats why all these rich guys look so worried and miserable.

Glad I dont have money !!

Well, I think money and life in general is a mindset...as in whats inside will appear in the outside. If you think its terrible to have money then the last sentence is the logical conclusion of your first sentence.

Also Bloomberg is far from essential. If you get investment/trading advice from Bloomberg then you will go bankrupt. It is up to you to disseminate and research the wealth of information out there and come to your own conclusions. I actually took about 14 months of forums and discussions, and never watched Bloomberg, and just focused on my own research without opinions of others. It is nothing but laziness and expecting something for nothing to watch financial TV or read a newspaper and think you can get a head of people who put in 100 times more work than that. Its not going to happen.

Having Bloomberg TV is even dangerous as it will lead you to second judge all the time. Bloomberg Terminal is a different kettle of fish as it is a huge source of news feeds, huge data provider for just about any area you want to research over a long period of time. However, as opposed to the Bloomberg TV which is free, Bloomberg terminal costs around $1600 a month. I guess you get what you pay for..

Also, why worry....If you build money up slowly and consistently, then you learn how to manage it. Also, as I said its a mindset. Why focus on the worry of loss. That thought should be replaced with how creative you can be to make more, and focus on the enjoyment you and other people will have with that...and the benefits it adds to society. If you think on the positives all the time, and ingrain it in you, there is no room for worry.

It is cringe inducing, especially the party consisting of 85% males,pissed and being even bigger wanke_rs than they are sober...arrogant, conceited and self-obsessed bunch. I d much rather "rub shoulders" around some joints/clubs around Sukhumvit where the female ratio is closer to 85% than spend $20,000 to hang out with these parasitic blood sucking hounds....from Old Holborn...

Maybe, and it is unfortunate that a lot of our leaders have risen well above their Peter level. But on the other hand financially you would probably be worse off spending the USD 20k around Sukumwit than gaining a few insights in Davos. They may be tosssers, but they also make the decisions.

You can stick your CCTV, Police State, wheelie bin Stasi, DNA, WMD, "Social Cohesion", benefits for all, guilty until proved innocent, don't do that it's illegal now, can't say that, ID cards for all, where are you going, what have you been saying/doing/reading, can't photograph that, how very dare you, we know where you live, we're watching you Soviet Utopia up your <deleted>. Sideways

Governments see it as their role to govern the sheeple. There are two main plans to achieve total governance,

1. Top down. As you describe.

2. Middle down. This is the plan to prevent upstarts by removing the middle class through debt and taxes and dumbing down 90% of the population through the education system and TV.

Things are changing, people are starting to stand up to the establishment, and I see a growing body and network of young people online becoming more politically pro-active.

The second part is from Old Holborn...he ran for a seat at the general election as anonymous and wears a Guy Fawkes mask the whole time...He is what the mainstream media would classify as polticially incorrect but a very amusing and funny blog with a serious point to it. BastardOldHoborn. Yes he actually does turn up at political events wearing a mask and a cloak his latest offering...

I was out with Guido today, attending the "Tea for Change" lobby which is demanding that even MORE than £16 billion a year of your tax money is handed over to all and sundry in the 3rd world so that they too, may own iPads and therefore reach "equality" with us filthy capitalists in the West.

I spoke with various delegates and all them had no answer to my simple question:

Why are you demanding people on minimum wage here fund a nation that has a £1 billion a year space program and more nuclear weapons than us?

All of them umm and ahh'ed. Really. Not one could answer. And then, they threw us out. And then they attacked the man, not the message.

The reason Old Holborn stays anonymous, despite offers of TV and newspaper columns is that anyone can be Old Holborn and Old Holborn could be anyone. I will not be attacked for anything but my message. Feel free to act in my name, all you need is a Guy Fawkes mask. Or a spacesuit.

If you are tired of politics, then it's up to you to change it. You have the internet, you have the vote and you have your voice. Use them. There really are only 650

Liverpool Eye Up Clichy

Yet another player who is making life difficult for Wenger. To be honest Clichy has been quite mistake prone in the last few seasons. I remember the stupid penalty he gave away against Birmingham in the last 30 seconds a few seasons ago when Eduardo had the bad break. That was the day we" lost" the league. Gibbs I think is more than capable. Wenger really though needs to go out and spend the money he receives if these guys leave.

Liverpool are weighing up a £5million bid for Arsenal’s Gael Clichy as their search for a new left back intensifies.

The France international is heading into the final 12 months of his contract at The Emirates Stadium but will not sign a new deal.

Clichy, 25, is one of a number of options being considered but is considerably cheaper than £9million-rated Aly Cissohko of Lyon and Osasuna’s Spain international, Nacho Monreal.

And the tension and weight within the EU continues to mount. Trichet Inflames Berlin Dispute

Jean-Claude Trichet, European Central Bank president, has escalated his dispute with Berlin over a fresh international bail-out for Greece, after making clear he sees no scope for forcing a contribution from holders of Greek government bonds.

Eurozone governments had to avoid Greece being deemed in default or a “credit event”, Mr Trichet warned on Thursday. Any private sector involvement had to be voluntary and without any element of coercion.

His comments were a riposte to Wolfgang Schäuble, Germany’s finance minister, who has demanded a “quantified and substantial contribution” by bondholders as a condition of German support for a new aid programme. They threatened to intensify already acrimonious negotiations over the composition of the package, which could be as big as €170bn ($247bn) between now and 2014.

Spanish and Italian bond yields continue to move higher. The yields on Spanish 10 year have soared this morning. We are now near the top of the resistance channel, and a break out of the 5.50% area surely will spell trouble, as the moves from these large multimonth consolidations usually are large.

I watched the Trichet speech yesterday. As Mish pointed out he contradicted himself by saying they would contain inflation and be strongly vigilant and then he said we will provide unlimited liquidity. Euro sold off hard after his speech, so perhaps the market can see past his ramblings. How can these people have any credibility is beyond me. Plus the journalists that ask questions are right soft ball questions.

Anyway, lets see if by next week at some point these Spanish bond yields break higher, how things play out. Gold up in real terms I would imagine. As a note, gold was down against the USD a couple of days ago, but when measured against a basket of currencies was actually higher in real terms. A sign that safehaven flows are at work.

Oh dear! Looks like novelty of Davos is wearing off

http://www.youtube.c...player_embedded

It is cringe inducing, especially the party consisting of 85% males,pissed and being even bigger wanke_rs than they are sober...arrogant, conceited and self-obsessed bunch. I d much rather "rub shoulders" around some joints/clubs around Sukhumvit where the female ratio is closer to 85% than spend $20,000 to hang out with these parasitic blood sucking hounds....from Old Holborn...

You can stick your CCTV, Police State, wheelie bin Stasi, DNA, WMD, “Social Cohesion”, benefits for all, guilty until proved innocent, don’t do that it’s illegal now, can’t say that, ID cards for all, where are you going, what have you been saying/doing/reading, can’t photograph that, how very dare you, we know where you live, we’re watching you Soviet Utopia up your <deleted>. Sideways