RedFxTrade

Smoking is not that addictive anyway...I have stopped at least a dozen times.

History is full of periods where relations between countries were good, countries were stable and wealthy, but these relationships can deteriorate, and sometimes in a short period of time. Faced with geo-poltical tensions epic policy mistakes can be made out of sheer desperation. How can you be so sure that things are different now?

until I can switch on BBC or Al Jazeera and see that everything has calmed down definitively

throughout the Middle East ( when in actual fact things are getting much worse not better ),in my humble opinion there is a

huge risk over just one single commodity the disruption or reduction in supply of which could result in hyperinflation,

and cause the the U.S. trade deficit to skyrocket. It would cripple the US domestic economy and negate any benefit of its massive agricultural subsidies.

On a lighter note...I didn't know they worshiped Gordon Brown in Japan

Love hearing Fabers views

yawwwnnnn...

this is what Faber forecasted TWO YEARS ago: "May 27 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy will enter "hyperinflation" approaching the levels in Zimbabwe because the Federal Reserve will be reluctant to raise interest rates, investor Marc Faber said."

http://www.bloomberg...id=avgZDYM6mTFA

gurus like Faber et al can publish any bullshit. they are never challenged except by little nobodys like me.

if somebody points out "but he said xyz and abc happened " he is shouted at "BUT GURU WHATSHISNAME FORECASTED PRECISELY the outcome of the battle of [correct] ISSOS [incorrect ISSUS] in 333 B.C. when Alexander the Great (height ~1.55cm / 5'1") beat [correct] Dareios III [incorrect] Darius of Persia and he was also correct stating "the nights are colder than outside when a Farang pays sin sod between S&P 500 and Christmas".

But he has not been proved wrong yet on that Naam. If you read the work of Rogoff and Reinhardt and the 7 century studies they have done on debt, external to GDP, and banking crisis, you will see that there is nothing controversial or any hyperbole in saying that high inflation is a strong possible outcome. Perhaps the media portray it as hyperbole, but when have the financial media been anything but myopic in their outlook, analysing every tick up and down in stocks, and every little piece of data.There are literally dozens and dozens of instances of hyperinflation and high inflation episodes throughout history. It can take a long time to play out, but I would never rule anything out.

History is full of periods where relations between countries were good, countries were stable and wealthy, but these relationships can deteriorate, and sometimes in a short period of time. Faced with geo-poltical tensions epic policy mistakes can be made out of sheer desperation. How can you be so sure that things are different now?

I think todays societies make the mistake of seeing our lives as more sophisticated than times gone by with all our technological advances and scientific advances. Perhaps we see ourselves as more intelligent than times gone past, and repeated historical episodes of wars, depressions, civil wars, inflationary nightmares are exactly that...historical. However, there is no doubt we are qualitatively better off today than the past, as an example cars are much better today than cars 60 years ago, we have heating, aircon, sound systems, airbags etc etc But it is worth noting that in times gone past societies thought exactly the same thing. I mean in the 19th century people were qualitatively better off than the 18 the century. The advent of running water and trains in the 19th century must have led people living then to think how intelligent we are compared to the heathens and the mercantilists of the 17th century.

I think that is a dangerous mindset for any society to hold the notion that somehow today "it is different". I m sure all the great nations of the past who were the wealthiest nations at times never thought they could experience hyperinflation. But as I said, change and constant flux are an insignia of life, and things can and do deteriorate. China has had many centuries as the worlds powr house, yet has already had periods of hyper inflation. Did Japan just last century really think it would have hyper-inflation before it happened? Did France really think it would go into a hyperinflation with the Assignats?

If you read the Gideon Gono policy and what he has said he honestly (unless he was being intellectually dishonest) could not see a link between his policies and inflation. He blamed it on droughts and things like that, and he needed to stimulate the economy to help farmers. Wasn't it Einstein who quipped about he was more sure about the infinity of human stupidity than the universe...I think we cannot under estimate or take lightly some of the people who are in charge of making decisions.

Now I m not saying we will have hyper-inflation, but I also not saying we will not and it is a completely outrageous prospect. It can take decades to play out...To completely refute the idea is being too dogmatic. We are all only here for a 70-80 year period, hopefully anyway, so we tend to see things within that scope...but there is nothing new under the sun or in history, there are countless episodes of things going spectacularly wrong, and leaders and politicians in history have shown an infinite ability to make terrible policy decisions regarding foreign policy, economic policy and an infinite ability to act with utmost expediency out of desperation when faced with economic upheaval , civil and geo-political unrest.

.It is hard to disagree with the reasoning behind the deflation idea of credit and money as marked to market and finding a willing borrower as well as a lender, and indeed when you do look at measures of credit they are contracting...I think that is why I have a tendency to go long the USD when the time is right...

and here on video is a different perspective on things from the renowned Dr Faber

http://www.zerohedge...g-his-smoke-bre

Thanks Midas...It is quite ironic that Mish's favourite analyst is Dr Faber. Total respect for both guys. Love hearing Fabers views. Again its hard to argue. I m going to admit it, without being overly dogmatic, I really have no idea between high inflation and deflation. I find both arguments fascinating. From a theoretical stand point I find the deflation argument slightly more convincing...due to the credit side of the economy and if collectively people do want to borrow then the banks can not increase money supply.

But then I look at the nutters in power, at the FED and some of their ideas to prevent deflation, and what they are trying to do. I guess my not knowing or deciding dogmatically to one side is why I ll try to trade the swings. So basically, own gold, silver, and other commodities that look cheap from fundamental perspective and on a price basis, sugar is one, , but also go long USD at times for technical reasons, as a hedge and short certain stock indexes, options etc...Very interesting times.

agreed! The only ones who really know are those who are engineering this " grand plan "

like cloudhopper said -we are all speculators now

But the one thing I picked up on in that interview was his comments about the danger of tax revenues plummeting.

and the need for Ben Shalom Bernanke to keep printing even more paper one thing about Marc Faber is

he hasn't changed his position one bit on this prediction over a long period of time.

Well exactly, Faber has been steadfast in his outlook. He is very prescient, and I dare say they will print and print as Faber has noted in the past it is the only option available. One thought I have been considering;

We have had Qe1 and Qe 2, both have "worked" in so far that they have blown stock prices and risk assets to lofty heights again while keeping bond yields low for between 6-9 months...After the first qe wore off, we saw the slow down start to appear again, and the economy last year was slowing, and probably would have went into a recession without the huge stimulus of Qe2.. We have had qe 2 and the economy seemed to pick up again, with improving data, rising assets etc...Now it is clear that QE has worked in the medium term. I say worked, but it is only an illusion as the growth is not real growth derived from real savings. Now the economy is slumping again by many measures as qe 2 seems to have run its course...my question is this...at what point does the market "say", ok qe is not working, and is it possible that market confidence in the efficacy of QE itself dwindles...and that perhaps by the time we get to the failure of QE 3, and they think about Qe 4 and start qe4, the market says this is not working, and we get a collapse regardless? One option worth considering.

.It is hard to disagree with the reasoning behind the deflation idea of credit and money as marked to market and finding a willing borrower as well as a lender, and indeed when you do look at measures of credit they are contracting...I think that is why I have a tendency to go long the USD when the time is right...

and here on video is a different perspective on things from the renowned Dr Faber

http://www.zerohedge...g-his-smoke-bre

Thanks Midas...It is quite ironic that Mish's favourite analyst is Dr Faber. Total respect for both guys. Love hearing Fabers views. Again its hard to argue. I m going to admit it, without being overly dogmatic, I really have no idea between high inflation and deflation. I find both arguments fascinating. From a theoretical stand point I find the deflation argument slightly more convincing...due to the credit side of the economy and if collectively people do want to borrow then the banks can not increase money supply.

But then I look at the nutters in power, at the FED and some of their ideas to prevent deflation, and what they are trying to do. I guess my not knowing or deciding dogmatically to one side is why I ll try to trade the swings. So basically, own gold, silver, and other commodities that look cheap from fundamental perspective and on a price basis, sugar is one, , but also go long USD at times for technical reasons, as a hedge and short certain stock indexes, options etc...Very interesting times.

I think that is a well balanced opinion. If it was set as a challenge to win a bet or something, you could live on 15k...for a month or so...but it would take great effort and would not be that much fun...yes you could get a crappy room for 2500 Bht, then 100 baht per day for food, staying in the area you live without traveling too much, unless by bus and skytrain, with the odd taxi.

It depends on what you consider 'fun', I suppose? If you consider going to the beach every weekend fun, then yes, it would be tough to do. If you can't handle life without a few beers every night, then again, it would be tough. If you hang around areas where a lot of other expats are every day, then it would be tough, as well. But try to look at it from the point of view of someone with a girlfriend who is working here in Thailand, and not here for the backpacker life.

The reason I don't spend much is because I eat at 'regular' places, and I take song tows and taxi bikes to work. I buy shopping at the weekend to make my own lunches, and on weekends we go out to various places around Bangkok and on the occasional day trips further afield. When we have a few days off, we'll book a trip to Samet or somewhere similar, stay in a nice room and have a great time doing what we like doing. Like I've said before, not drinking certainly affects the budget - although I doubt this is the worry of many expats. Plus, not paying for a girlfriend's upkeep is another bonus, and that's what you get for going out with a regular down-to-earth Thai girl (which, believe it or not exist!).

I'm sure your comment wasn't a dig at me, and I certainly am not taking it that way, and I'm not living on 15,000 baht a month as a strict rule, it just happens to be around the amount I might spend on a normal working month. It's not hard, and like I've mentioned previously, it's a very relaxed and calm life I lead here. It might not be everyone's cup of tea, but it's mine, and I enjoy it!

Hi David, just read my post, and I could see how you could have taken offense and how it might have been aimed at you, with emotive words like "crappy room", doing it" for a bet" and "no fun"...It certainly wasn't aimed at you and I commend you for being rational and not taking offense. I have read your posts, on the don't take the kids to a restaurant and on other parts of the forum and on here and you seem like a "live and let live kind of guy"

Its quite interesting drawing some parallels between your situation. I first came here when I was 22, I m still the right side of 30, and not actually in Bangkok at this moment, but will be coming back before long. When I was first here I stayed in a room at Sukhumvit Onnut, costing 2300 BHT, and stayed with my gf at the time who also happened to drive her own car. I lived on very little like yourself but really loved it and enjoyed it. We ate the street food and that, and had a good time in general, and got away sometimes also, and went out too. All in all quite similar to yourself I would imagine...

And fun of course is subjective. I was happy staying in my cheap room, with a fan as long as I had books and my guitar and that.I would imagine now having a Kindle and a laptop, Ipods etc it would be even easier to stay in a room. All I really need is books, a laptop, a guitar...I was perfectly content doing it in that room. I m not a big TVision person anyway. Over time though my financial situation improved and I then stayed in an apartment that had the usual sauna, fitness, swimming pools near Srinakharin Road for about 15,000 Baht a month....and in more recent times in Bangkok have been in a position to rent a condo on Sukhumvit 24, which is a nice area.

However, what I would say, and it is interesting that your level of happiness is not necessarily automatically better if you stay in a condo at 50,000 baht per month or 2300 baht per month. I think happiness is an inner state of mind, which will travel through any set of condo doors regardless of how many bedrooms it has and how nice the furniture is. Judging from the moaning and negativity you see on this site from a lot of people and in life in general, it would not matter if they had a penthouse condo with a private pool, they'd still be unhappy, best thing is to block out any negatives. I have been working really hard in recent years and will be able to work from just my laptop anywhere, and I will probably get a half decent rental when I m back...however, I think the more important thing is enjoy life in a spirit of renunciation and see things for what they are...they are only material things at the end of the day and I do not see any point in getting attached to things as the be all and end all, as they are only transitory anyway. I know a fairly wealthy guy who lives in India part of the year, he was involved in music industry and something he said struck me when I was younger and traveling in India. He said he does not care if he is sleeping on the beech in a hammock one night and the next night staying in the Taj Mahal in Mumbai...its the people you are with that count. I think that is so true.

I only want money now to give freedom to do what I want when I want without having to speak to a boss or that, and to give me time for music, reading, sport, travel, start new hobbies, spending time with people, family, going out sometimes. Its not just to have money at an end in itself. In the end it all comes down to what you want, and we can all make goals and go for it if we want. If you want to stay in a decent place fine, if not thats still fine, because as I said above, if your happy you will take that into any condo, hotel, and into all walks of life without external dependencies. Judging from your posts you seem a well balanced happy person, and has some focus and goals for the future, and I m sure you ll get on well regardless.

Good Luck.

Ok to Octavion;

You need to read his opening post and his responses so you see that he is not looking for the bare minimum to survive.

It is possible to survive on 15k a month; but be real about who does it. Normal Thais can do it yes because they have lived here all their lives and they are accustomed to living prudently (those who choose to). They know the best ways to save money from experience.

Some foreigners (such as mr DavidSl apparently)may also be able to do it either because they have lived here for some time and have also acquired the knowledge of how to scrimp and save, or they are in a situation that allows them to survive on 15k; they may have a gf that takes care of many of their expenses (like mr David).

But I think it is irresponsible to tell the OP that it is EASY for a foreigner who just moved to BKK to live on 15k. For most, it is not.

Most people will need some comfort food a couple of times per week as eating rice dish and noodle dishes can get redundant. There are so many little expenses that I am not going to list now that often push budgets beyond what they had originally expected.

I think a budget of 30-40k per month is much more realistic for the OP if he is looking for a fairly budgeted lifestyle. 60-80k for a comfortable life with entertainment and western food fairly often.

Everyones situation is different, but I have had many friends who moved here and completely underestimated their expenses.

I think that is a well balanced opinion. If it was set as a challenge to win a bet or something, you could live on 15k...for a month or so...but it would take great effort and would not be that much fun...yes you could get a crappy room for 2500 Bht, then 100 baht per day for food, staying in the area you live without traveling too much, unless by bus and skytrain, with the odd taxi.

30-40k, would allow a room at 8-9k, you could go out maybe 7 times in the month drinking/pubs/clubs etc, and eat out, and afford some treats over the month, like Western food, Chitlom food courts, Siam Paragon etc etc....but I still think 30-40K is still the lower end of the beginning of a comfortable lifestyle...For example say you were going on a date or taking your GF to the cinema one night, you might get a motorbike taxi to the skytrain for 30 baht, get the sky train to Siam 80 baht for both of you, then 200 Baht for cinema tickets, then some chocolate, crisps say, drinks, another 150 baht, then once the movie is finished you might go eat at a Thai place, say 200 baht for a couple of dishes, then a taxi home say, 100 baht

That would be a cost of 760 baht for maybe an 8 hour period. Do that once a week and over the month just for one night at the cinema with no bells and whistles would be over 3000 baht.If you add a couple of alcoholic drinks into the mix then that will be higher. Thats 760 Bht for one evening...what about the rest of the day before that evening...I think what Kblaze means by all the little costs is all the repetitive things you do each day, 20 baht here, 100 BHT there which people do not take into account.

You will easily spend a 500-1000 BHT a day without really noticing, with all the small costs...even spending 500 BHT a day without rent and utilities, is 15,000 baht....one night at the cinema will cost much more than 500 BHT.,..

You need at least 50-70 BHT a month to be in the middle range of comfortable...ie, going out 2-3 times a week, pubs/clubs, restaurants, being able to go outside bangkok, perhaps Samet, Ko Chang, Samui a couple of times a month, having a condo with a pool, fitness, some mod cons so that you can spend good quality time in your room, ie, DVD, good TV, laptop.

Look for more crisis, more drama, more catastrophe ahead. And deflation too. The dreaded "D" word will return in a big way. Possibly soon...

I dont agree ! not yet .

" Durable Goods Plummet: -3.6% On Expectations of -2.5%; 8% Monthly Swing From 4.4% Prior Print; Ex Transportation Consensus Missed By 2%"

Place your bets on QE3 coming this way soon

Here's an excellent review IMO

http://globaleconomi...n-multiple.html

Yes excellent indeed. Mish's blog is fantastic. He avoids hyperbole, is well reasoned and always has an interesting perspective. I send some emails to Mish and he is always receptive and gets back which is good as he gets a lot of emails. The guy is a blogging fanatic. He is on my google chat window, and it is very rare his status is not online. In US (i m in the UK at the moment) time his posts appear in the middle of the night at times...he never seems to sleep...It is hard to disagree with the reasoning behind the deflation idea of credit and money as marked to market and finding a willing borrower as well as a lender, and indeed when you do look at measures of credit they are contracting...I think that is why I have a tendency to go long the USD when the time is right...

I m not in the hyperinflation camp, but own gold and silver, and accumulated more silver in the last couple of weeks, but do not mind going long the USD at the same time. In a severe deflation the real cost of gold should go up.

However, to stick to dogmatically to either premise is risky. I mean the deflationists could very well be right, but the market could move against them for a few years first. Prechter has been calling the top in stocks in September 2009 for instance, and in silver and gold for even longer. To believe wholeheartedly in hyper-inflation without considering the other side of the coin is silly also.

Perhaps the best way to look at it is we will move between large periods of forced liquidity into the system, and periods of contracting liquidity. Trade the swings between the two. Right now long USDCHF, been short AUDUSD.

The total removal of muslim prayer rooms. the jews, Christians, Buddhists, Taoists, et al are not catered for so why the discriminations. and by the way the use of the words Muslim Prayer rooms is false, last time i stuck my nose into one out of curiosity, I didnt see any bums in the air just loads lolling around reading and smoking !

How about the total removal of muslims from airports ? The rest of us wouldn't have to go through endless mind numbing security checks.

It was only a matter of time before some ignoramus would arrive to defecate all over a whole race and religion with one big broad brush stroke of xenophobic and prejudice paint.

Very Interesting article on Europe and Spain...The Youth Revolution Spreads To Europe

They can revolt all they want, but isn't going to generate a single extra EUR to pay off the debt they have incurred.

As we have described in these pages, the basic plan of Europe is to rescue the banks at the cost of screwing Europe's taxpayers -- signing up the citizens for decades of indentured servitude. And not just taxpayers, but all European citizens exposed to the burden of deeply unfavorable economic conditions.The idea that Greece, Portugal or Ireland can move forward without restructuring their debts -- a move the bankers so want to avoid -- is dependent on the notion of forcing those countries to accept deep, deep recession, or even depression-like economic conditions, for years if not decades to come. And all to save reckless banks and bondholders in the same ilk as Goldman Sachs.

I wonder what would have happened to the Greeks if the banks had refused to loan the country the money in the first place? Where would the buggers be today? The rating agencies certainly played a big role by rating the debt as "investment grade" when "crap grade" should have applied.

How much of the loans that the Germans made to the Greeks was, in some way, the German tax payers' money in the first place? I do not know. And now they have to pay to get some of it back again.

But I have to take exception to the phrase "reckless" applied to Goldman Sachs. The bank is certainly not reckless in its dealings, but hugely profitable, however "wrecker" could very apply be applied. I wonder how much they invested in Greek debt after they manipulated Greek's finances to get the bloody country into the Eurozone. Zero, at a guess. Yep, I am fed up with the Greeks and their particular issues. Bad apples and barrels falls into mind.

Maybe the solution is at hand

http://www.cnbc.com/id/43162793

Officials involved in the discussions believe far more than €50 billion could be raised in sales of state-owned assets, with estimates ranging from €250 billion to €300 billion - or almost all of Greece's outstanding debt.

But who is going to buy? Is there any money out there?

Not saying I agree with the political sentiments. I m very much a complete non-socialist. I think it is morally bankrupt to borrow the savings of others who have labored for them,squander them all all without building the necessary productive capacity to pay the money back. Its not against the individual people of the country, but the stupid politicians and banks who loan t the money. However, individuals also need to take responsibility, but the world we live in today has led to a world where the general populace put more thought into buying a new pair of shoes or a TV than investing their savings.

I m interested in the political movement and its implications for austerity and governments, and from an investment point of view. However, the Germans paying to get the money back is not going to work. They are just throwing good money after bad.

Ah Naam from Switzerland, great country, beautiful place.

To be honest, if you could get Mexican and Greek and American Chinese food in Thailand, I'd scarcely see the point in travelling.

Except to get a decent short back and sides, obviously.

And I always try to get my boots buffed when I'm in Bangkok.

Maybe an auld boot buffer bloke would be good to see at the airport

SC

To be honest,,,I d probably not even make it into Bangkok at all if the airport had that range of cuisine...If they ever do get those restaurants I ll have to look at renting an airrport hotel room for convenience, so I can pop over anytime and sample some of those Mexican taquiera, you know the real ones...

The total removal of muslim prayer rooms. the jews, Christians, Buddhists, Taoists, et al are not catered for so why the discriminations. and by the way the use of the words Muslim Prayer rooms is false, last time i stuck my nose into one out of curiosity, I didnt see any bums in the air just loads lolling around reading and smoking !

A re-entry permit immigration counter that gives them away and makes life easier for frequent travelers. A Chinese buffet place like the real Chinese food in the USA A place that makes an actual gyros with fresh-backed Greek bread. A Mexican taqueria that makes real Mexican food and not the stuff they make in Thailand now. A real Italian sub place (Thailand does not have one).

Do you spend all your time on holidays/when traveling in the airport to make all that such a priority...? I mean how many hours do you actually spend in the airport. As long as there is a bar and something that fits the description of food your sorted. When things go to plan as they usually do....you do not need to be in an airport anymore than 2-3 hours.

Very Interesting article on Europe and Spain...The Youth Revolution Spreads To Europe

The youth revolution that rocked dictators in the Middle East is now spreading to Europe. Look for more chaotic upheaval in result.

These are momentous times. By some measure, there is as much potential for change and upheaval now as at any time in the past 50 years.

Add in the prospect of war, and the time frame extends back 100 years or more...

The sweep of uncertainty and chaos is evident everywhere you look: America. The Middle East. China. Japan. Europe. Even Africa.

Major trends, both positive and negative, are clashing like titans in multiple "hot spots" all around the globe. And anyone who says smugly that "it's all under control" is only fooling themselves.

Very little is under control right now -- and the answer to "what's next" is far from obvious.

If the 21st century had an animal mascot, it might well be a "black swan" -- the rare bird popularized by Nassim Taleb as a symbol of unexpected fat-tail events.

Except, truth be told, most of the events unfolding now are actually "gray swans" -- surprising in their power and ferocity, but not actually unexpected. Many of today's developments were foreseen in rough shape, only the specific details and calendar timing left out.

These thoughts were brought to my mind by another "gray swan" revelation last week: The youth revolution is spreading to Europe.

In the Middle East it is known as the "Arab Spring." This is appropriate, as the age demographics for the MENA (Middle East/North Africa) region skew extremely young.

So what will they call it when the same thing happens in gray-headed Europe? The below image, gleefully posted anonymously to the Internet, captures the spirit of the latest uprising.

As the U.K.'s The Guardian reported on Friday:

A youth-led rebellion is spreading across southern Europe as a new generation of protesters takes possession of squares and parks in cities around Spain, united by a rejection of mainstream politicians and fury over spending cuts.

Protests are also planned in Italy, where the tag #italianrevolution is a trend on Twitter. Plans have been announced for a piazza occupation in Florenceon Thursday night, and for further protests in Italian cities, including Rome and Milan, on Friday.

In Madrid demonstrators have refused to budge from the central Puerta del Sol despite a police charge that dislodged them temporarily on Tuesday night.

Now they have occupied a quarter of the square, covering it with tarpaulins and tents, setting up kitchens, tapping at laptops and settling down to sleep on sofas and armchairs.

Similar scenes were being played out in Barcelona, where protesters held a midday Argentinian-style pan-bashing protest in the Plaza de Catalunya, and in numerous other cities where protesters raised the banner of what they call "the Spanish revolution".

Notice the "Twitter tactics" -- creating a tag called #italianrevolution -- which was also very evident in the Middle East protests.

So-called "social media" is now being used as a tool to facilitate uprising. From "flash mobs" and "crowd sourcing" to serious gatherings in which citizens challenge governments, communication technology is changing the face of the planet.

Nor is the "revolution" the sole province of youth. They are just the ones who are most comfortable using mediums like Twitter and Facebook as highly efficient mobilization devices.

The adults of Europe -- taxpayers, business owners, despairing workers -- have just as much incentive to revolt as the youth do, if not more.

(Don't forget, you can sign up for Taipan Daily to receive all of my and fellow editor Joseph McBrennan's investment commentary.)

As we have described in these pages, the basic plan of Europe is to rescue the banks at the cost of screwing Europe's taxpayers -- signing up the citizens for decades of indentured servitude. And not just taxpayers, but all European citizens exposed to the burden of deeply unfavorable economic conditions.

The idea that Greece, Portugal or Ireland can move forward without restructuring their debts -- a move the bankers so want to avoid -- is dependent on the notion of forcing those countries to accept deep, deep recession, or even depression-like economic conditions, for years if not decades to come. And all to save reckless banks and bondholders in the same ilk as Goldman Sachs.

As far as the European sovereign debt crisis goes, Spain is the great white whale of Europe. Notice that Spain has not been in the news as of late -- though that may be changing even as this note is written. It has been all "periphery" -- Ireland, Portugal, Greece.

That silence is partly because Spain is just too big to wave off. If the contagion fears truly grip Spain -- and there is every reason to think they will -- then all of hades truly breaks loose.

Look, here's the thing. The wonks at the Federal Reserve are masters of denial. Those who run the European Central Bank (ECB) are also masters of denial, as are Europe's leading politicians.

But all that vigorous denial doesn't solve a dam_n thing. It only postpones the desperate need to find a true solution to the problems at hand... and in so doing makes those problems worse.

For years now your editor has steadfastly maintained, and still maintains, that the eurozone is in a disaster situation, a giant train wreck waiting to happen. It has only been the human miracle of persistent denial and suspended disbelief that has kept that train wreck from happening.

None of this is to deny the problems of the U.S., which we have written about extensively. All the major currencies are bad houses in a bad neighborhood. It happens to be the euro in the major line of fire just now, as a false solution comes close to being outright rejected by angry youth all across Europe. And adults joining in too.

Look for more crisis, more drama, more catastrophe ahead. And deflation too. The dreaded "D" word will return in a big way. Possibly soon...

Editor's Note: The U.S. economy may be recovering, but it's nothing compared to the area some analysts are calling the "Global Wealth Zone." Investors who move their money into the Global Wealth Zone now could more than double their net worth... but only if you know exactly where to look.

ICE Tower is a complicated building; BAM owns the majority of it; can't remember the name of the company who took over all the bad debts (NPL) (and is going to be shut down) and a number of individual owners; the occupancy licence has not been issued yet; can't remember the asking price; was something between 800 to 1000 million baht; it is going to take the same amount to refurnish and complete the building (making it extremely expensive); last I heard was BAM is going to complete the building and put it on the market if it cannot find a buyer. I have a CD showing the floor plan of every floor

Cool, good info. So what sort of level of condo will it be, or is planned. High end, middle etc?

haha ok my bad RedFx - I didn't mean anything by it, I just got a sokal-vibe for a second there. No harm no foul. My apologies to you.

200K @ 8%pa - Naam your memory is excellent!

I do think that the forum could use some new antagonists, though. The apocalyptic-rider shtick is getting long in the tooth!

edit: btw I wasn't putting myself in the ''seasoned investors'' group, I'm young and I've made my fair share (and perhaps more) of mistakes.

let me tell both of you some secrets but please don't tell others!

-a seasoned investor beats you both hands down in number of mistakes made,

-a seasoned investor makes even nowadays continously mistakes and will make mistakes till he stops investing,

-the biggest mistake he makes when he stops investing, gives carte blanche to his banksters and mutates to the rank unseasoned investor,

-the advantage of a successful seasoned investor is that he has faced and dealt with a variety of situations and is not "hungry" anymore. his primary desire is to protect his net worth and achieve an adequate yield in line with prevailing market conditions, if possible above inflation. if the yield is much higher he will accept that mishap like a man

besides this, certain seasoned investors strive to live a comfortable life, clipping a lot of coupons of which they need only a small part to finance their life style, sip a glass of good wine, grab whenever whenever deemed opportune (servants not present) the behind of the passing Old Lady, take the dogs for a drive in a (in Thailand) rare old car and puff a Cuban cigar :jap:

Hey Jcon totally no offense taken, only messing around anyway...Your right the forum could use a few more antagonists...its not fair poor old Naam having to fight his corner by himself all the time , although fair play he sticks to his guns...

I think you hit a very important point there Naam...its is all about personal circumstances, and over all maintaining a certain lifestyle until death us do part if you like. So whats right for one person is not the same for another....

And yeah everyone gets it wrong,,,,no monopoly on the future...my biggest learning curve over the last few years was learning to take a loss before it gets out of hand....and now I only ever add to a position when the first one is in profit...and start off smallish....

I m glad your at the sipping fine wine stage...I m still at the gulping down the Bia Changs, but in a sophisticated way......as I do a beer chang and chateauneuf de Pape chaser....for balance...

Where are you guys from anyway? I m assuming Churchill is British, Jcon from the states....and Naam either the US, British or German?

Come on Barca...!!!

After reading the last few posts I'm pretty much convinced that RedFx is sokal.

The problem with sokal was that he thought having 100,000 USD meant that he could go toe-to-toe with seasoned investors and didn't have respect for older people with more experience. I could be wrong, but I'm just sayin'

And if RedFx isn't sokal, then he shouldn't be offended anyway, because sokal was a douche.

Sokal (as opposed to Red) couldn't form a single coherent english sentence. Red never mentioned the Austrian School of Economics and neither did he curse Keynes.

p.s. Sokal claimed his net worth was 200k dollars and he considered 8% (16k p.a.) sufficient for him to retire in Thailand.

Thanks for the Hat tip Naam...But I do read the Austrian school and do curse Keynes... :lol:Its the only one that has made sense to me, so I guess we all follow what makes sense to us to form our world views in all areas of life

After reading the last few posts I'm pretty much convinced that RedFx is sokal.

The problem with sokal was that he thought having 100,000 USD meant that he could go toe-to-toe with seasoned investors and didn't have respect for older people with more experience. I could be wrong, but I'm just sayin'

And if RedFx isn't sokal, then he shouldn't be offended anyway, because sokal was a douche.

I m not Sokal...to be perfectly honest I managed to get my password reset for my old user name...and I have two previous user names dating back to 2004...I m a binge forum'er, hence creating new usernames. I have actually more posts now than my last user name. Last user name was Vedantafxtrader and one before that was Tomyamgoong or something like that...I have been trading for about 8 years, and been successful for coming up on 4 years.

Poor Sokal was obviously over leveraging himself by the sounds of it. But obviously Jcon thinks Redfx does not have respect for more seasoned investors and people with more experience...I m young and building my experience...the first 4 years I burnt a couple of accounts, but progress for me was marked in that it more time to burn the second one,...the next step was not making or losing much,...to become profitable now and then,...to getting more consistency...

Don't worry Naam, I m sure you ll get a chance to buy T-Bonds at 15% again...and if you do not want to wait, you could always buy a Greek 10 year at 17%, even better...surely that must be good value...why would anyone want to own Gold when you can get a Greek 10 year at 17%...great value.

i consider commenting on pure refined rubbish, especially when i'm addressed, my duty. but comparing U.S. Treasuries of the 80s with Greek sovereign debt of today is much worse than pure refined rubbish. therefore i decline to comment.

I was being facetious and a little bit sarcastic Naam ...I agree there is no comparison................yet....but I m not talking about US Treasuries of the 80s...I m talking about todays. As I said it is about the facts in the here and now.

But caveat emptor...Britain was a vast nation, with sterling circulating throughout the empire and was the richest country in the world....a few decades later Britain could not sell its bonds...Sterling dropped 80-90% in a few decades against other currencies and has lost more than 98% against silver/gold...

Never underestimate the stupidity and expediency of politicians and countries to burn through capital...and bring about ruination and bankruptcy...It has happened so many times in the past...what makes you so confident that "this time is different"?

We can all sleep at night now , knowing how to correctly cut our toe nails , you could say thats nailed it then.

Tedious...

You are a nutter if you don't get your toenails done, after coming all this way for your hair cut.

One of the reasons that there are so many arab tourists here is Thailand's reputation for coiffeural service, and I am sure toe-clipping tourism (toerism) is a growth industry.

I think that the need to cut your own toenails shows an inability trust others - just like waxing your own buttock cleft.

SC

Toerism... ...I ended up doing my own toe nails last night,,,,not sure if I prefer the red or purple...but anyway there is serious mileage literally and metaphorically in the idea of a toe-clipping tourism...It would also be a novel idea if they would give a happy ending at the end of a clipping session akin to the feeble massage you get after your haircut,,,,with a gentle toe sucking session...

Right must dash...just need to get my clothes out of the tumble dryer here and into the suitcase...off to Vietnam tonight....found an excellent ironing service in Hanoi...

We can all sleep at night now , knowing how to correctly cut our toe nails , you could say thats nailed it then.

Tedious...

I have often seen these, and passed them quite often...what a huge mis-allocation of capital...

They've just started work again on those buildings, after almost 15 years. There is a thread with pics, SV Gardens

Yeah cheers, I literally just saw that this morning on the skycrapercity forum...good news. Although they were saying the rendering looks like the 90's design. Still better than how they are now.

rebuttal completely off discussed topic which was "universal storage of wealth when UST yielded 15% p.a."

Don't worry Naam, I m sure you ll get a chance to buy T-Bonds at 15% again...and if you do not want to wait, you could always buy a Greek 10 year at 17%, even better...surely that must be good value...why would anyone want to own Gold when you can get a Greek 10 year at 17%...great value

It is east to cherry pick a certain year and its looks smart with hindsight, with the wholly hypothetical proposition of the word "if" I had bought then, and sold that now etc....The hallmark of a good trader/investor is what does one do now, in the here and now. My sole aim each year is to make some money, and the money that I make goes up in purchasing power each year. Basically my goal is to have a persistent lowering in the cost of living year after year....Now there are many ways to do that...I do not care whether it means selling USD, then buying USD, buying gold, selling silver, selling gold, buying silver, buying Japanese Yen, or Japan stocks or selling them...anything will do as long as it looks attractive for a sufficient period of time to make some money, that could be a a couple weeks or a few years.

The question to you is what do you do to protect your money in there here and now with regards to the near and medium term future?

That's terrible news.

Changing things like this is just going to make LOS like the dreary old west though, with it's nanny state mentality. It's these unnecessary dangers that make the place so colourful isn't it.

Yes it is terrible news for the guys family and kids. You just never know what will happen next in life....

However, I do totally agree with your point. I m currently in the UK. Total nanny state, socialist state, sanitised beyond fun. The Puritans are out in force here within government, and at all levels, and has a lot to do with the EU (SSR)... also

Councils contemplating making less holes in the salt shakers in fish and chip shops so as people use less salt...

The government now have a monopoly over alcohol pricing...more than 50% is tax and on wine its nearly 70% tax,,,,

You now need 3 people to change a lightbulb now by EU regulations... no more ladders...only scaffolding.

These are three examples of the top of my head of such nonsense you hear everyday on the news.

ok just had a lil poke around and found a good topic it and explanation. May be my bad as well Because i think it might be the I.E tower or I.C.E tower instead. have found some more good pictures too if anyones interested Ghost building

There is a great forum on skyscrapercity.com on Thailand, mostly Bangkok about all the going ons within the construction industry, new condos, new roads, urban facilities, etc etc. Great pictures on that site. They have two sticky threads on there called ...you will see them near the top of the link. Great information on this site. You might info on this building on there...or you could sign up and ask them. I never post on there just browse,.

Here is the link to the main Thai forum....

I have often seen these, and passed them quite often...what a huge mis-allocation of capital...