beautifulthailand99

For those who don't know, the catalytic cracking unit at Lukoil's Nizhny Novgorod plant has been under repair since 10 January. The plant produces 349 thousand barrels per day, while Russians consume 829. That is, part of the largest plant, which provides 42% of domestic consumption, is under repair. It should be said that the price of gasoline is a very worrying issue for Russians, if no one cares about Navalny's death, increase in price can cause a real riot, so when the price rose from 47-50 rubles to 55-60 rubles, of course the government was forced to ban exports for six months. https://www.energyintel.com/0000018d-16d2-d6b1-a9bf-b6f706a60000 That said sanctions on some of the service providers involved in the upgrading of this very old installation will be having an effect but in time Chinese and others will replace these western companies that provided these services. After all it's not rocket science. https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/projects/lukoil-nizhny-novgorod-refinery/ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Petroleum_Engineering_and_Construction_Corporation

When we see the epic level of destruction caused in such a small area and the collapse of health services and sanitation it doesn't take much imagination to say a heck of a lot. To get into a numbers game can only be to deflect from that salient point. Israel should be proud of that, given their logic of this war and besides it's all on Hamas is the overarching narrative. If they were truly the figures given, would you be ashamed ?

If you don't mind, on this occasion I will accept the US SoS and Biden's acceptance of the figures rather than some recently hashed up Israeli propaganda which attempts to deflect away from the utter carnage they have caused with spurious graphs and looks like some intern in the Hasbara Front had a cunning plan late night on the Mountain Dew. At the heart of the issue is the assertion by the Gaza Health Ministry that over 30,000 individuals, predominantly women and children, have been killed since the onset of the conflict. These figures have been cited by prominent figures, including Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and President Biden, lending them credibility on the global stage. However, skepticism has been raised regarding the veracity of these numbers, prompting closer examination of the data.

No problem, totally understood. My context was to draw attention to the absurdity of the Russian information space, but that nuance may have been lost on some, and of course you have to see the bigger picture.

For the avoidance of doubt, all views are my own and I have no time for the autocratic Putin or any other leader that oppresses their people of whatever stripe and have a strongly held belief that all wars create more problems than they solve. However, that is off-topic, so I will desist.

He said they were very similar. Of course, I would have never met a fighter as they are not allowed to leave any more, or are dead and as you say he may well not be representative. Hopefully our paths will cross again in the near future, his English was near perfect, so I suspect he is highly educated and by fleeing his has saved his lives and limbs. I would have done the same if I was in his shoes.

Even if he was just 20% of that demographic, then there's the tragedy. Like I said, he hated Putin and always had, and I was proud that my country had given him security and peace.And when the fighting stops, how do you stop the hatred and mistrust of citizen against citizen as to how 'Ukrainian' you really are ? A new Ukraine is better off without the troublesome Oblasts and Crimea rather like Eire was better off without the 6 counties. And those few pro-Russians in the rest of the country can move over there. Ukraine needs a Valera now not a Michael Collins now and Zelenskiy is not it.

I was at a birthday party in London last night for Thai friends and partners mostly Thais with just one other farang who was a partner actually of a very pretty Thai lady boy who is a long term friend of the missus. As he was nursing a drink quietly and not really joining in with the group 'madness' I approached him after about an hour to say hello. He introduced himself and said he was from Ukraine. I said I'm really sorry about what has happened to your country, it's a terrible tragedy. He never said mind but, thanks. We then spent an animated 30 minutes talking about Ukraine. He was in his early 30s and a draft dodger worked as a carpenter on building projects - he left shortly after the war began has refugee status under the Ukrainian settlement scheme. He never wanted to go back, indeed if he did now he would be drafted. He hated Putin, but he also hated Zelenskiy who he said was full of bs,a comedian and actor who had ruined the country. He had lost 2 childhood friends to the war and an Uncle. I said it seems like a civil war that we should have stayed out of, and he animately said yes - he spoke Russian and said everybody did, and it was like England and Scotland being a war. Not only that, but he said before the war the country was terrible, there was so much corruption and poverty most people he knew wanted to leave. But whatever they wanted, no-one but the mad people wanted this. When he said that, I said "Azov" - he laughed and said yes, how do you know ? He reserved his greatest venom for America who he said had stirred this conflict and kept it running pumping arms and ammo into when they knew who Putin was and what he would do. I finished by saying I hope the war stops soon, and he said so do I we all do. We then toasted to peace and joined in the dancing and party spirit. Now anecdote is not fact, but that chance meeting was very interesting and informative and confirmed me in my thinking that this war is not a black and white good vs evil, is a terrible tragedy for all concerned and that the West is as much an element of that tragedy as is Russia and the sooner the fighting stops the better for all concerned. Хай живе мир

Since I was referencing Kissinger I did a dive and came up with this perceptive analysis. His final statement is coming chillingly true - the worlds' largest landmass and richest in natural resources allies themselves with the world's largest industrial giant. How do you think that pans out ? Add Putin's stooge Trump likely to come to power in the world's richest and most powerful country no wonder western leaders are panicking at the prospect. The Roman Empire died with decadence and the barbarians at the gate. As Marx said 'The farther backward you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see' and "History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce" holds immense relevance in this context. "Right off the top of my head, I cannot give a direct answer," Kissinger responded. "Because the war in Ukraine is on one level a war about the balance of power. But on another level, it has aspects of a civil war, and it combines a classically European type of international problem with a totally global one. When this war is over, the issue will be whether Russia achieves a coherent relationship with Europe -- which it has always sought -- or whether it will become an outpost of Asia at the border of Europe." https://www.rferl.org/a/henry-kissinger-evolution-views-russia-ukraine-obituary/32708682.html

You devil ! But what about the wildfires ?

He is a hugely respected Professor at the University of Texas and son of the famous economist JK Galbraith one of the most famous and distinguished economists of all time. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_K._Galbraith

These are the points that Professor Galbraith makes in that video, then you ally China is as a "partner without limits" as they call it then it's a perfect storm for the perceived limits of western power and influence. Kissinger no less before he died majored on that point https://www.newsweek.com/kissinger-predicts-china-involvement-will-lead-ukraine-peace-talks-1798917

My play book as you call it is to want peace and an end to war by understanding the complexities of the situation and accepting certain geopolitical realities. We have had 2 years of Putin is dying , he will be replaced in a coup, Russia's economy is on its knees, the counteroffensive will work ,shovels and washing machines, Leopards ,Abrams, Challengers and the next Wunderwaffe are game changers and doubters have been called Putin shills , Kremlin mouthpieces, traitors and the like. The time has come to accept reality and begin a road to a messy peace, not more senseless war. I have been a pacifist by temperament all my life and if that makes me a useful idiot so be it. The Pentagon's think tank the Rand Corporation has already war gamed a potential end to hostilities, Ukrainian watchers may find it of interest if they truly want to be informed. I take care with my posts and links hopefully to inform and educate, not to annoy others with different views if you choose to denigrate them rather than engage with their substance, then mai bpen rai. https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA2510-1.html President Biden has said that this war will end at the negotiating table.[74] But the administration has not yet made any moves to push the parties toward talks. Although it is far from certain that a change in U.S. policy can spark negotiations, adopting one or more of the policies described in this Perspective could make talks more likely. We identify reasons why Russia and Ukraine may have mutual optimism about war and pessimism about peace. The literature on war termination suggests that such perceptions can lead to protracted conflict. Therefore, we highlight four options the United States has for shifting these dynamics: clarifying its plans for future support to Ukraine, making commitments to Ukraine's security, issuing assurances regarding the country's neutrality, and setting conditions for sanctions relief for Russia. A dramatic, overnight shift in U.S. policy is politically impossible—both domestically and with allies—and would be unwise in any case. But developing these instruments now and socializing them with Ukraine and with U.S. allies might help catalyze the eventual start of a process that could bring this war to a negotiated end in a time frame that would serve U.S. interests. The alternative is a long war that poses major challenges for the United States, Ukraine, and the rest of the world.

Paradise is here and now, or it is nowhere. Where is it ?

In terms of sanctions on Russia they have been an unmitigated disaster for the West - forcing a pivotal movement of those markets and resources away from the west to new partners, accelerated the process towards consolidating and expanding their industrial and industrial military base, cementing an inviolable relationship with China and others that can prove an able and willing partner to replace tech know how that they lost with sanctions. What has happened we have sanctioned ourselves, threatened German's industrial base which was posited on cheap Russian gas and markets and by so doing the stability of the Eurozone itself. If you don't believe me, listen to this recent lecture from the noted Professor of Economics James K. Galbraith who makes all these points with great eloquence and persuasiveness

If you are leaving your wife which sounds like you are, maybe that is the real issue, not the country. Good relationships are a partnership where the couple make decisions together, not impulsively by one party on a whim.

Become a monk for a month in some remote jungle temple that will give you tine to reflect on what you really want and what Thailand really is. I'm only half joking as well.

I used to dream of that prospect 20 years ago and even though I have condo with my wife in Jomtien and more than enough funds to live comfortably there for the rest of my life it would be my worst nightmare.

We.Must.Stop.TheCommies.

The proliferation of articles in the pro-Ukraine western press detailing the dire position of the Ukrainian front are an indication of a potential rout and collapse of the front. Macron's posturing about there may have to be boots on the ground is a reflection of that reality. But the truth is the western electorates don't want that, and anyway they are in a poor state militarily to make much difference even if they did never mind the terrible optics of body bags for a war few understand or even care about any more and besides they need any ammo they have for themselves. The Ukrainians have more than shown their bravery and valour, but there comes a time when to continue for no gain is senseless slaughter. Armistice now. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/08/russia-ukraine-forces-struggle-enemy-mariinka “The Russians have more of everything. Tanks, artillery, human resources and planes,” Sasha admitted, speaking as he conducted a test flight with his bomb-carrying quadcopter. In the distance, next to a slag heap, black smoke billowed into a white sky. He added: “We have a lot less. And they prepared for this war for a long time. Unfortunately, we didn’t. We can only survive if the west steps up and gives us more weapons.” If you want the old battalion, I know where they are, I know where they are, I know where they are If you want to find the old battalion, I know where they are, They're hanging on the old barbed wire, I've seen 'em, I've seen 'em, hanging on the old barbed wire. I've seen 'em, I've seen 'em, hanging on the old barbed wire Besides which there is a conscription crisis, the days of young men queuing up to defend their country have long since gone. Would you be signing up to fight at this point ? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68255490 When Pavlo Zhilin and his patrol hit the streets of Cherkasy, men often swerve to avoid them. Pavlo is a conscription officer looking for soldiers for Ukraine's army. But almost two years into Russia's full-scale invasion, there's no flood of volunteers to the front line anymore. Most of those who wanted to fight are either dead, injured or still stuck at the front waiting to be relieved by new recruits. In the central town of Cherkasy, like elsewhere, finding them isn't easy now that the first burst of enthusiasm and energy has faded. Ukraine is exhausted.

Adam Curtis's Traumazone is a peerless 7hr look at how the USSR collapsed and the chaos it unleashed, and ends with the rise of Putin. A must-see for anyone who wants to know how we got here and the best 'documentary' I have ever seen. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia_1985–1999:_TraumaZone Trailer All 7 hours

I find r/Ukraine is full on propaganda, fair enough that's what it there for and it's explicit purpose. I read and contribute to r/UkraineRussiaReport that has a lively mix of Pro-UA, Pro-Russia and neutral. So all posts are hotly debated, torn part and critiqued. It has been an amazing source and clearing house of commentary, information links and OSINT that you simply don't get elsewhere. But it's a not an echo chamber and if you come with straight out propaganda you will get ripped anew one. It's got 75k members. WillyOAM the Aussie ex-infantryman is great as well on YouTube.

Thus is beyond tragic in so many ways.

A link would help.

From that Guardian article you qouted. The strength of the proposal is that seized assets would be deemed to have been returned to Russia after the payment of reparations. The proposal’s weakness is that it assumes Ukraine will win a military victory and a defeated Moscow will be prepared to pay reparations for the damage it caused to Ukraine, something that now seems unimaginable.