beautifulthailand99

My point if you ever bothered to read my links is the dominant narrative oft punted here is ; Putin is dying / will be deposed in a coup Russia is running out of money , weapons and men and so one more push and he can be defeated any day now just keep on supporting the war. Of course if these "self-evident truths" are nothing such then we are consigning Ukraine to total destruction as it were - to the last Ukrainian. Those relucutant consctipts are dying in droves or deserting in the Donbas short of weapons or training or air cover. Cursing war and rightly so whilst armchair generals seemingly oblivious to their suffering cheer onwards to victory.Is that plain enough ?

West’s missile go-ahead to Ukraine would hold no shortage of risks - Any decision to let Kyiv fire western missiles at Russia could have dramatic impact and must be carefully calibrated https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/sep/11/west-missile-go-ahead-ukraine-risks-russia The complication is that it is hard to imagine the US, the UK or the other countries involved in the manufacture of Storm Shadow, France and Italy, simply giving Ukraine a free hand in where it might bomb inside Russia. It would not be hard to work out if either weapon had been used, and a miscalculation by Kyiv, perhaps killing a lot of civilians, would have wider consequences. Nor are there large stocks of either weapon, prompting scepticism in the US that they could turn the tide.

Russian forces have launched a concerted push against Ukrainian troops in the border Kursk region, according to both Moscow and Kyiv sources. A total of 10 settlements have been recaptured by Russia since Tuesday, Alaudinov said. It was described a "breakthrough" in Kursk-NEWSWEEK https://www.newsweek.com/russia-kursk-counteroffensive-ukraine-1951986

West wants Ukraine to set realistic war goals for next year, WSJ reports - The Kyiv Independent https://kyivindependent.com/west-wants-ukraine-to-set-realistic-war-goals-for-next-year-wsj-reports/ Senior European officials told the WSJ that a full Ukraine victory would require the West to commit hundreds of billions of dollars worth of aid, which the partners are not ready to do. Citing undisclosed official sources, the outlet wrote that the Western countries call for a pragmatic strategy that could be more easily sold to voters at home amid signs of growing fatigue.

More deep dive into data - this areport from the prestigious Kiel Institute in Germany - one of the 50 most prestigious think tanks in the world. They say that as the stockpiles get depleted Russia increases production of new tanks. They believe the Russian production will reach 350 tanks per year in 2026 even without new production lines being opened between now and then. The report also says that they produce enough war materiel to cover their losses and equip three new field armies by October 2024. Without NK Russia would be facing a shell deficit. With NK supplies it has a significant (100%) surplus. The point being is that Russia has built an evolving formidable war machine whilst we in Europe are moaning about losing our winter fuel allowance and our NHS on it's knees and a restless population that won't write open cheques for ward far away. Kiel Institute estimates that Russian tank production has increased by 215%, armoured vehicles 141%, artillery 150%, air defence 100-200% and Lancets by 475% compared to late 2022 - Kiel Institute https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kiel_Institute_for_the_World_Economy https://www.ifw-kiel.de/fileadmin/Dateiverwaltung/IfW-Publications/fis-import/1f9c7f5f-15d2-45c4-8b85-9bb550cd449d-Kiel_Report_no1.pdf

No one doubts that for one minute - but the forcing by necessity of Russia (the world's largest country and source of minerals) with China the world's largest manufacturing base and population and season with DPRK and Iran into an alliance of convenience will probably ne seen as one of the greatest foreign policy mistakes of the early 21st Century.

The legitimancy (or otherwise ) of Maidan is for another place given that if I reply at length my post will be zapped. There were at least 3000 heavily armed far rightists directing the pushback against the authorities. A committed miltant cadre can make the weather if they so choose. Which indeed they did. Trotskyism works on the same basis of entryism of mass movements and set the agenda and direction of travel. I was one myself in the Anti-Nazi League in the late 70s. https://voxukraine.org/en/denial-of-the-obvious-far-right-in-maidan-protests-and-their-danger-today

They are catching up with the Great Firewall of China as part of their friendship without limits.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/09/11/army-warfighting-ability-damaged-by-training-ukrainians/ https://archive.is/6Adyy Britain’s warfighting ability has been damaged by training Ukrainian soldiers, a report by the National Audit Office (NAO) has found. The Ministry of Defence (MoD) said that the UK’s military support for Ukraine had “constrained” its ability to train British troops, as it reduced the availability of training facilities on the Army’s estate. The report, published on Wednesday, said: “The MoD has acknowledged that Interflex will constrain the Army’s capacity to train its own soldiers.”

Since China won't change course the question is what is the US going to do about it. It begged China to exert pressure to stop the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and turned tail from Operation Prosperity Guardian. The US's big stick is looking more and more than a large twig. But when you hollow out a productive vibrant economy with offshoring and game the system with finacialisation that "makes money" and not things you lose that power. US accuses China of giving ‘very substantial’ help to Russia’s war machine - In exchange, China is getting top secret Russian military technology. https://www.politico.eu/article/united-states-accuse-china-help-russia-war-kurt-campbell/ Now Washington is unambiguously saying that China is aiding the Russian military. With Moscow facing international sanctions, it desperately needs technology to boost its military production to be able to continue its war against Ukraine.

The public is weary of the war, draconian measures to mobilise men, almost daily blackouts and endemic corruption, while Zelenskyy’s popularity declines. To some Ukrainians, the Government shake-up looks unnecessary and untimely as Russian troops advance in southeastern Donbas https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/9/10/in-ukraine-some-are-sceptical-of-zelenskyys-shake-up-as-russia-advances According to an August survey by the National Democratic Institute pollster, his ratings dropped to 45 percent from 69 percent in January. Earlier this month, a deputy prime minister and six cabinet ministers sent their resignations to the Verkhovna Rada, the unicameral parliament of Ukraine He said Zelenskyy needed the shake-up to divert the public’s attention from corruption and the dysfunctional court system.

Well Zelenkiy was elected to bring better relations with Russia,end corruption and find a solution to the war in Donbas and he can't be removed by an election as it stands currently. And let's not forget Maidan wasn't a mass revolt but a gathering of 20,000 mostly peaceful but with a nasty undercurrent of far right forces fomenting unrest for their own ends - echoes of January 6th maybe ? Maybe Yanukovych realised in his soul that cordial relations with Russia were vital if you didn't want to be "Chechnyiad". He wasn't wrong.Post war if western money comes in and it's a big if - we will have replaced one oligarchic class with another, American big finance - when the heroes who survive will want a country fit for all like 1945 Britain socialism red in tooth and claw. Blackrock and JP Morgan don't do that.

What is undoubtedlty true is that the narrative is very tightly controlled in Russia as is the internet and citizens are savvy enough to keep their heads down less they be effectively cut off. But polling where it does exist, and there are reliable sources is support for Putin and the war remains strong probably around 70%. Many Ukrainians know this - they may have (former?) friends and family there. That's where "all the orcs are guilty" themes stem from and many Ukrainian nationalists despised Navalny for his position of Crimea and Russian nationalism in general and celebrated his death. Ukrainian media is by and large free as well the Kyiv Independent being the freest of them all despite terrible pressure from the authorities to get it to toe a full on pro-goverment narrative particualy in the area in exposing corruption in high places in which it has played a brave and honurable role. We are all subject to confirmation bias - I want this war to end and feel it should have never been stirred in the first place and given the volume of media that noble posters post that doesn't support that view I feel I have a public duty to seek out and curate articles from responsible western media sources that throw shade on that unbridled optimism aka "the truth".

Mostly true but the western narrative is more subtle and represents the interest of the billionaires that own it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manufacturing_Consent

I agree but I use https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/ which is hated and trolled by many r/Ukraine users for showing 'both sides'. They were brigading attacks that nearly got it shut down a few months back after the Islamic terrorist attacks in Moscow but vigorous modding and a temporary shutdown meant it was able to get back up. Trolls or uncivil action is ruthlessly policed. I have a lot of karma....

My hot takes are based on the best of my knowldege at any moment and I sincerely beleive them to be true as I see it at that point.That reduction seems to be firm whereas the shortfall being made up from seized Russian assets at this time still appears problematic. So my point at this juncture still stands. Indeed it indicates a direction of travel, blabbed by Meloni to those Russian pranksters way back when. "I see that there is a lot of fatigue, I have to say the truth, from all the sides. We (are) near the moment in which everybody understands that we need a way out." https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-halt-new-ukraine-military-aid-report-war-russia/ In a letter sent to the German defense ministry on Aug. 5, Finance Minister Christian Lindner said that future funding would no longer come from Germany's federal budget but from proceeds from frozen Russian assets, according to the German newspaper. Germany and other G7 countries in June struck a preliminary deal to use the value of some $300 billion of Russia’s sovereign assets immobilized in Western financial institutions to secure a $50 billion loan to Ukraine. But governments have yet to agree on the details of the scheme, and technical talks might drag on for months. Indeed aid to Ukraine was gifted wheras the loan is just that based on a bond backed by the assets as collateral which no doubt Ukarine has to pay at some point or risk default and the subsequent loss bouncing back to European taxpayers as an unfunded liability. Still fine words at the moment but no buttered parsnips. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/risky-business-how-to-save-the-g7-deal-to-mobilize-50-billion-for-ukraine/

This would tie in with Germany slashing their help to Ukraine next year and Scholz is fighting for his politcal life against a resurgent pro-Putin AfD. EDIT they are already cheering. https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/far-right-afd-cheers-scholzs-call-for-peace-summit-with-russia/

It's interesting, Kursk was initally a PR triumph where Ukraine siezed back the initaitive with the first invasion of Russian soil since WW2. Since then as our friend problemfarang has said they have taken heavy losses and are not encountering many troops moved from the front. Couple that with Ukrainians are the good guys then there is an overhead in behaving responsibly as the occupier and they are reportedly the best troops as well - fighting what appear to be ghosts. Zelenskiy has said repeatedly he wants to end this war in the autumn and I think it was to strengthen his hand when trading land for peace. Maybe they thought Russians forces would set up their pitiless artillery and glide bomb assaults on their own villages and divert forces from the Donbas.But it hasn't happened. Meanwhile as I have pointed out in the CNN,Economist and Julian Roepcke reports posted there is mass desertion , lack of men and ammo and a seemingly unstoppable Russian advance in the Donbas. It's starting to appear the cunning plan was far from cunning and time is running out for Ukraine.

Latest post from Julian Ropcke expressing despair at the situation at the front.

Their best fighters and units were sent to Kursk for what increasingly looks like a "hearts and minds" operation - meanwhile back at the front inexperienced conscripts are facing unimaginable horrors. Syrsky wasn't nicknamed "the butcher" by his troops for nothing. Danger in Donbas as Ukraine’s front line falters - Russian fighters are trying to encircle the defenders - ECONOMIST https://archive.is/JdQeS Yury, a soldier attached to the 59th brigade based near Ukrainisk, says Ukrainian losses have been significant. A reinforcement of inexperienced infantrymen sent from Ukraine’s 71st brigade were wiped out. “Over three days, 100 became zero. The Russians are also pressing their advantages in drones and electronic warfare. This is especially evident in their search and strike system, which links advanced reconnaissance drones to strike drones, artillery and aviation. “Physicist”, a tank commander with the 68th, says the Russian air force and artillery can react almost in real time; anything that moves and is not protected is destroyed. His tank drivers consequently now mostly work as static artillery units, operating from closed positions, and much farther back.

Keep safe I too have so many questions I would love to ask but now is not the time. I hope this war ends soon and you can go back to Thailand and rejoin the realworld if that is what Thailand is !

Comrade I was a youthful Trotskyite for 4 years during my callow youth - mostly left wing Labour since then but a democrat nevertheless. I live in the UK and have never visited Rissia. I did visit the USSR exhibition at Earl's Court in the 1970s . My last foray into politics on the World Forum was back in the glory days fighting against Brexit. Turns out all those members who argued to take back control with such fervour were advancing Putin's agenda. Not me.I've said before it was Bahkmut and WillyOAM on YT and Reditt that opened my eyes to the difference between the dominant narrative that is being pushed and the murky truth. That and trillions of dollars of US and their lapdogs adventurism particuarly in the middle east. Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me.

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/09/08/europe/ukraine-military-morale-desertion-intl-cmd/index.html CNN spoke to six commanders and officers who are or were until recently fighting or supervising units in the area. All six said desertion and insubordination are becoming a widespread problem, especially among newly recruited soldiers. Four of the six, including Dima, have asked for their names to be changed or withheld due to the sensitive nature of the topic and because they are not authorized to speak to the media. “Not all mobilized soldiers are leaving their positions, but the majority are. When new guys come here, they see how difficult it is. They see a lot of enemy drones, artillery and mortars,” one unit commander currently fighting in Pokrovsk told CNN. He also asked to remain anonymous.

I remember my brother after a visit to Ukraine telling tales of how much the folks he had talked to hated Russia, a visceral hatred. Now transfer that to the border oblasts where a large amount of folks feel divided loyalties and are made to feel second class in their counrty of birth that was once in a union with their neighbours late as the 1990s. Add extreme ultra-nationalist paramilitaries stirring the pot (AZOV before the whitewashing in every western media publciation) and you have the ingredients for a regional civil war. The west has admitted they were bad faith actors in Minsk buying time and here we are. The worse of all worlds.