beautifulthailand99

It is well known that Ukraine is riddled with Russian spies and citizens that are being turned with honeypots, money and the like. The point remains that a key army resource has been hit when common sense says you don't concentrate large numbers of important personel in a place that can be easily hit.

Two off the top of my head. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yavoriv_military_base_attack https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/11/6/ukraine-orders-investigation-after-russian-attack-on-brigade-ceremony

You make good points well argued and sourced and thanks for the schooling, but at the risk of going off topic any further, which I hinted at in my post I shall accept your arguements in this instance and move on.

Given the amount of missile attacks that have taken place at army mass gatherings it defies belief why at this stage in the war Ukraine would suffer such a significant hit. It points to military and command dysfunction. https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/sep/06/drones-russia-poltava-airstrikes As of Friday morning, 55 people were reported dead in the attack, with more than 300 injured. It is not clear if any of the victims were civilians. The institute is a training facility that gives soldiers skills in electronics, cyber-warfare and battlefield communications; its graduates are “the intellectual elite of the Ukrainian armed forces”, according to a poster on an information stand outside. In the current conditions of all-out war, many soldiers are sent there for a month of training before going back to the front.

My point about Nguyễn Văn Thiệu which will rapidly be deleted is many foreign leaders have had years long friendships with the US and big puff pieces in the NYT and the like doubt as to how they are transforming their countries and advancing the cause of freedom in the world and how the US will support them to the end. And then they don't and the circus moves on leaving your country in ruins and yes he took 16 tonnes of gold with him when he took the ride. “It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal.” ― Henry Kissinger “America has no permanent friends or enemies, only interests” ― Henry Kissinger

I don't know where to start but Putin is no good guy but a gangster kleptocrat who keeps order on top of a gold mine.

As his popularity fades Volodymyr Zelensky culls his cabinet - He has reshuffled his team and concentrated power - The Economist Echoes of Nguyễn Văn Thiệu for those with long memories he railed at US perfidy at the end. https://archive.is/h3x36 Those lined up for dismissal included heavyweights. Two deputy prime ministers, Iryna Vereschuk and Olga Stefanishyna. The justice minister, Denys Maliuska. The charismatic, ponytailed head of the ministry of strategic industries, Oleksandr Kamyshin. Environment minister, Ruslan Strilets, and the head of the State Property Fund, Vitalii Koval. Perhaps the best known of those departing is Dmytro Kuleba, the long-time foreign minister. Explaining his reshuffle, Mr Zelensky said the country needed a “new structure.” He will not have missed the massive drop in government popularity registered by polls in recent months. With elections cancelled during the war, this was one of the only levers he could pull.

A great artcle that chimes with my thoughts and infers the sooner the fighting stops the sooner a post war Ukraine can be shaped. I take personal slurs in my stride I have always been and remain a realist hopefully bringing some necessary facts to the debate rather than propaganda. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/putin-will-never-give-ukraine Since the invasion, the United States’ strategy toward the war in Ukraine has been characterized by wishful thinking. If only Washington can impose enough costs on Putin, it can convince him to halt the war in Ukraine. If only it can send enough weapons to Ukraine, Kyiv can push Russian forces out. After two and a half years, it should be clear that neither outcome is in the offing. The best approach is to play for time—holding the line in Ukraine, minimizing the costs for the United States, and preparing for the day Putin eventually leaves. This is an admittedly unsatisfying and politically unpalatable approach. But it is the only realistic option

Ukraine’s losses outweigh Kursk gains, as Russia on cusp of taking Pokrovsk - Al Jazeera https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/features/2024/9/4/ukraines-losses-outweigh-kursk-gains-as-russia-on-cusp-of-taking-key-town She blames the loss of her home on President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s government and top brass — some of whom were fired by him on Tuesday in a major reshuffle. “It’s like they live in two realities, they care about those ephemeral gains instead of defending Ukrainian land here and now,” she said. Military analysts agree. “Yes, the two campaigns are developing in parallel realities, and despite a small success in Kursk in the past two weeks, further goals are not quite understandable,” Nikolay Mitrokhin, a researcher with Germany’s Bremen University, told Al Jazeera.

Zelensky fires head of Ukrenergo for failure to protect power infrastructure - New York Times https://archive.is/VEVHl Mr. Kudrytsky’s firing could also alienate donors who have helped keep the power system afloat, Svyatoslav Pavliuk from Energy Efficient Cities of Ukraine, an advocacy group for the energy industry, wrote in a post on Facebook. “Consequences of such decisions will be major,” he said. On Monday, Russian shelling damaged one of two electric lines providing power to the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, raising risks to the reactor cooling pumps just as the United Nations nuclear regulator planned a visit to the site.

Half the cabinet being booted out is not normal - you certainly don't replace winning teams with experience at the heart of a war. https://archive.is/prxHS The shifts came after Ukraine’s energy chief Volodymyr Kudrytskyi was removed, but complaints followed about his departure being “politically motivated”. The move heightened fears for the country’s beleaguered electricity grid, since Kudrytskyi, who had led Ukrenergo since 2020, was a respected figure in the energy industry. His sudden exit was sharply criticised by senior MPs and analysts. Some officials expressed concern to the FT that the moves were part of what they claimed were efforts by Zelenskyy to consolidate power inside his administration.

BREAKING : The Foreign Minister has just submitted a letter of resignation. Head of the Army , Head of the Air Force, Head of Defence Department, numerous mid level officials have all gone in recent memory. https://kyivindependent.com/breaking-fm-kuleba-submits-letter-of-resignation/ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dmytro_Kuleba EDIT he jumped. https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/09/3/7473317/ Background: On Tuesday, three ministers and Deputy Prime Minister Olha Stefanishyna submitted resignation letters to the Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian Parliament). https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-arms-chief-two-other-ministers-tender-resignation-top-lawmaker-says-2024-09-03/ "For this, we must strengthen some areas of the government and changes in its make-up have been prepared. There will also be changes in the (president's) office." Zelenskiy has also dismissed Rostyslav Shurma, one of his deputy chiefs of staff whose portfolio is the economy, according to a decree published on the presidential website. David Arakhamia, a senior lawmaker for Zelenskiy's party, said there would be a "major government reset" that would see more than half of the ministers change. "Tomorrow a day of sackings awaits us, and a day of appointments the day after," he said.

Considerable anger building in pro-Ukraine sources at the lack of air defences some of it turning on Zelenskiy.Roumers are that a large passing out parade was ongoing and spies gave away the location. His anger is this has happened before and shouldn't be happening again. You simply don't concentrate a large amount of military personnel in a public area.

https://unherd.com/newsroom/russias-pokrovsk-advance-could-be-pivotal-in-the-war/ There is nothing that Ukraine can do to stop the inevitable from taking place. The only question in Washington D.C. right now is whether the front line will hold up until the election in November. It may seem deeply cynical that the Americans would allow thousands of deaths of Ukrainian soldiers a week – many of them conscripts – simply to prevent bad optics before an election. But these are the grim realities of Washington’s foreign policy. “It may be dangerous to be America’s enemy,” Henry Kissinger once said. “But to be America’s friend is fatal.” No one seems to want to learn that hard lesson.

https://www.newstatesman.com/international-content/2024/09/the-russian-ultra-nationalists-defying-putin The Russian ultra-nationalists defying Putin Ukraine's Kursk incursion has sparked a wave of attacks on the regime. The nationalists do not represent a majority view, but they are a battle-hardened ideological minority within a largely apathetic society. They have deeply engrained chauvinistic and militaristic views of what their country should be. In the topsy-turvy reality of Russia, where convicted murderers are heroes, the church blesses weapons of mass destruction, and openly Nazi Russian units behead Ukrainian prisoners in the name of denazification, it is perhaps inevitable that the biggest challenge for the Kremlin is not from those who oppose the war but from those who truly believe in it.

We will leave that there.

As a rule I try and avoid perjorative terms and stick to my take on the facts on the progress of the war and the likely outcomes. But then I was involved in preparing high level briefs for senior goverment members and they were free to propagandize those for public consumption as they felt fit. Old habits die hard.

Not sure what your point is here I was adding inisightful significant commentary to a post - no need to reference yours.

There's a lot of value for Iran to have a capable partner use and study their weapons against western AD. They can study Patriot performance by timing a salvo for when they have maximum ISR coverage over the target. It's not easy to get testing opportunities like that - NATO will effectively be paying to help Iran refine their weapons systems. Saudis and Qatar both use Patriots. The point that some don't get here us that the US is reluctant to see their high-tech weaponary used in theatre less the Russians develop AD effective measures against them potentially rendering them useless. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-02/ukraine-allies-expect-iran-to-ship-missiles-to-russia-imminently Ukraine Allies Expect Iran to Ship Missiles to Russia Imminently Deliveries would mark a worrying development, people say US, NATO have repeatedly warned Tehran against shipments

https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-has-not-received-necessary-weapons-to-conduct-required-long-range-strikes-deep-inside-russia-zelensky-says/ Kyiv has long argued that restrictions on the use of long-range weapons are stifling its war effort, while Washington claimed that allowing Ukraine to hit deep into Russian territory with its weapons could escalate the situation. Ukraine has dismissed these arguments and has ramped up pressure to lift the ban in recent weeks amid the ongoing incursion into Russia's Kursk Oblast. The White House has not budged on its position, despite some U.S. politicians backing Kyiv’s demands. They are asking for something that doesn't exist. A week or two ago they launched 11 ATACMS at the Kerch Bridge.All of them were intercepted. Ukraine only has a limited supply of US-provided long-range missiles, and the US has made it clear that Kyiv should not expect another significant delivery of ATACMS because of the finite number in US inventories and the long production time of the weapon, according to a US official. https://edition.cnn.com/2024/08/30/politics/umerov-ukraine-targets-cnntv/index.html

https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/sep/03/ukrainian-troops-audacious-incursion-russia-kursk While the Kursk operation has created a feelgood moment, there remains an acute awareness among many Ukrainian soldiers that things in the east of the country are looking increasingly bleak, as Russia steadily closes in on the city of Pokrovsk. If that advance continues, the whispered questions about whether the Kursk adventure was worth it are likely to get louder. For now, though, the operation remains a symbol of Ukrainian success on the battlefield. “We can use it to create a buffer zone alone the border to reduce attacks on us. And at minimum, we’ve got prisoners to exchange, and have given our population something to be happy about,” said Artem. “They’re in a desperate David versus Goliath battle and this appeals to their rebellious spirit,” said one western diplomat in Kyiv, adding that the Kursk operation had boosted the mood among the political elite immeasurably in recent weeks. (my bold interesting choice of words from a diplomat).

Thanks for the useful info - noted.

I am a busy man I have been away again. Just catching up.

Sounds like the training was a sham they got to fly from the back seats and these were the Top Guns. https://archive.is/cOXoE#selection-2227.0-2231.121 Juice and Moonfish stood out for their talent when they rode in F-15 jet fighters for the first time the following year during an exchange program in California, said now-retired Col. Robert Swertfager, a fighter pilot with the California Air National Guard. During their rides the U.S. pilots gave the controls to their Ukrainian friends, letting Juice and Moonfish fly the American jets from the back seat. But their experiences made them increasingly disillusioned with the state of their own air force: like the wider Ukrainian military, it was bloated and dysfunctional. When Juice’s contract expired in 2021, he quit. In an open letter, he complained about bureaucracy, poor work conditions and the lack of a policy to integrate NATO standards. Pay was the equivalent of just $800 a month.