beautifulthailand99

Harris doesn't know how to point and clap meaningfully often at the same time when getting on stage and is therefore unsuited for high office.

If she gets it then its an establishment beltway black woman who struggles to speak against The Donald. The Deplorables will get out of their meth dens to send anothe FU to the establishment.Them's the rules.

Basically Trump will either win narrowly and that will be it or lose narrowly and then it's civil war with the United bit taken out of USA. "SA" but South Africa got there first.

STOP THE STEAL ! Worse than Biden apparently - Hannibal Lecter will eat her for dinner. https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/07/18/heres-how-kamala-harris-performs-in-polls-against-trump-as-she-emerges-as-most-likely-biden-replacement/

That's why Scholz halved the money and Zelenskiy is talking about peace talks, that and thousands of guided FAB bombs pummelling eveything that moves on the front lines untroubled by non existent air defences. It's hell on earth particuarly so for Ukrainian troops.

Julian Ropcke - BILD's uber Ukraine supporter and cheerleader - telling the unvarnished truth - it's a rout.

Well the policy of strategic ambiguity means that we will never officially know but we should tread very carefully when dealing with a nuclear power particuarly one led by an autocrat that links his country's destiny with his own. So it's not MAD to factor that in - indeed it's MAD not to. https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/01/18/taiwan-us-china-strategic-ambiguity-military-strategy-asymmetric-defense-invasion/ “We only have to be lucky once. You have to be lucky every time.” The Provisional Irish Republican Army after the Brighton bomb.

You or him ..... hmmmm https://carnegieendowment.org/people/christopher-s-chivvis?lang=en Chris Chivvis is a senior fellow and director of the American Statecraft Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He has more than two decades of experience working on U.S. foreign policy and national security challenges. He most recently served as the U.S. national intelligence officer for Europe. At Carnegie, Chivvis leads policy-focused research aimed at developing realistic U.S. strategy for an era of great power competition and building a foreign policy that serves the needs of the American people. Chivvis’ experience with U.S. foreign policy spans government, academia, and the think tank world. Before joining the National Intelligence Council, he was the deputy head of the RAND Corporation’s international security program and worked in the Defense Department. He also has held positions at multiple universities and think tanks in the United States and Europe.

The US seems to beleive that Russia may consider tactical battlefield nukes if backed into a losing corner as a raise the stakes in a demonic poker game of call my bluff. Cue cries of NATO will bomb them back into the stoneage if they do that. Quite. His point stands. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/why-is-russia-holding-nuclear-exercises-what-watch-2024-05-15/ "He is not saying that he is about to do so, but warning that there are some conditions under which he would do so," said Chivvis, a former U.S. intelligence official. "It seems unlikely Russia would use such weapons offensively to make gains on the battlefield. More likely, they would use them defensively in a situation where Russian forces were rapidly retreating and significant losses seemed probable."

The big lesson of Ukraine is slow moving big ticket assets are very vulnerable to cheap DIY weapons - it's leveled the playing field drastically and probaly one I'd wager that NATO doesn't want to confront directly. That and manpower , lots of it and ammo , lots of it win the wars in the end. I'd add democracy, public accountabilty and a free press are a drag on action once the shooting starts and wars and armies that can fight them cost money, big money and voters have choices.

The key piece of the jigsaw that many have missed with their Upper Volta with gas anologies is that Russia for all it's gaping faults and issues is a near peer adversary - approach with extreme caution, just ask Napoleon or Hitler if you could. Forget that or triviliase their capabilities then you are constructing your very own trap. Nor do they care about human rights, health and safety , human life and can create a command economy almost at will. These are known knowns that either the US forgot or studiously chose to ignore whilst cheerleading Ukraine into a spirited defence rather than an ignoble but early peace. Blame lies there alongside Putin. 😕

Yes it's brigade. That forum is a sobering read as they they are clinically taking apart from a postion of great authority and huge support for the Ukrainian side the current situation. The fault lines seem to be around too little too late from the allies. Biden's perpetual hesitancy with escalation and the inability of Ukrainian generals to shake off a soviet mindset of artillery frontal assualts against heavy fortifications and disregard for their NATO advisers' advice. They acknowledge now there is mass conscription resistance and that Trump is coming. If peace talks are coming in November then we should expect some big pushes from both sides and maybe some big ticket hits like Kerch so that negotiations come from a position of strength. Oh, and of course a critical lack of an airforce and degradation of crucial air defence capabilities. Then add to that there is virtually no more kit left that allies want to donate as they need it themselves and relevant western military industrial capacity is privately owned , diffcult to scale up quickly and requires long term goverment orders to ensure that any investment will produce an acceptable return. So Ukraine is out of men, out of weapons and now out of time.

Trump LIVE.

What's a Bde(-) ?

Some of the guys have trained Ukrainians, some are over in country in the foreign legions, all bar 1 or 2 are full on supporters of a Ukrainian victory without question. For them to say what they are saying without pushback or condemnation is just a belated acceptance of the truth. These guys know.

Blimey I read the British Army forum on a daily basis a more battle hardened pro-Ukraine forum you could never meet. It's all Orcs and Mordor and high level optimism but they have turned and they don't tolerate faint hearts lightly. I Haven't seen that before. It's pretty much over now. https://www.arrse.co.uk/community/threads/war-in-ukraine.304396/page-15448

A long and interesting read from Lawrence Freedman (Emeritus Professor of War Studies at King's College, London) in his latest substack he charts the story of peace talks between Ukraine and Russia. There's probably nothing we haven't already seen piecemeal, but the strands are brought together, namely: the 2022 negotiations, the following steps by Ukraine and Russia, Orban's peace mission and the implications of Trump becoming US President. https://samf.substack.com/p/irreconcilable-differences?utm_source=substack&publication_id=631422&post_id=146786251&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&utm_campaign=email-share&triggerShare=true&isFreemail=true&r=45w57p&triedRedirect=true Then Orban and this the back channels are opening - do I smell peace - let's hope so ? The Russian Telegram channel Gosdumskaya, which claims to have high-level sources in the Kremlin, said: “I will now tell you the real reason for Kolokoltsev’s flight to the US. Kolokoltsev was instructed to convey the ‘Russian peace plan,’ developed personally by Putin, and currently considered by him as the only option for ending the war.” The Ukrainian TV journalist Dmitry Gordon said much the same on TikTok, claiming to have received details of the plan from his [unspecified] “intelligence sources.” https://www.kyivpost.com/post/35302 What is in “the peace plan?” Crimea – is to remain as part of the Russian Federation although there is one version that suggests Putin is prepared to accept the Peninsula to become a “specially demilitarized administrative territory with dual subordination to Ukraine and the Russian Federation.” Ukraine is also to sign a legally binding international agreement not to block supplies of water to Crimea. Donbas – Ukraine to completely cede the whole of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions to Russia in return for which: Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions – Russia would be “prepared to discuss” the possible transfer of control to Ukraine, to include the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and Enerhodar. Demilitarized zone – this would be a 100 kilometer (62 mile) wide corridor that would follow the line of the Dnipro River and be controlled by Ukraine. Non-aligned status – Ukraine would give up its NATO aspirations but would be free to join the EU. Armed Forces – the size of Kyiv’s armed forces would be limited to 150,000 (according to Gosdumskaya) or 350,000 (Gordon’s version).

This play says you mess with our refineries well we will use our proxies to hit your tankers and send oil to the moon - guarantee a Trump win , trash your economies and show you what FAFO means. According to WSJ, the US is trying to stop Russia from arming the Houthis with anti-ship missiles, a retaliation for Ukraine striking inside Russia with American weapons. A couple of weeks ago Putin said “If someone thinks it is possible to supply such weapons to a war zone to attack our territory and create problems for us, why don’t we have the right to supply weapons of the same class to regions of the world where there will be strikes on sensitive facilities of those countries?” . “The Houthis have the most robust antiship capabilities among Iran’s regional proxy network,” said Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank. “But Russian antiship weapons would represent a qualitative leap and add more teeth to the existing Houthi maritime threat.” Middle East Eye, a London-based news site, reported last month that Russia has previously considered providing antiship cruise missiles to the Houthis but was talked out of doing so by the Saudis. Since then, U.S. officials have seen continuing indications that Putin might yet provide the missiles. https://archive.ph/2024.07.20-124309/https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/u-s-launches-effort-to-stop-russia-from-arming-houthis-with-antiship-missiles-98131a8a

Good for him - he realises that continuing this dreadful war benefits no-one but the arms industries. The maximalist "not a single inch of territory" blowhards will have to keep their views to themselves and welcome peace and ultimately Ukrainains can hold their heads high and realise they were led down the garden path by the US and their proxies for an end that was never and never would be, in their best interests. https://kyivindependent.com/world-must-pressure-russia-to-negotiating-table-zelensky-says/ With the support of partners, Ukraine could try to end the hot stage of the war with Russia by the end of the year, President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview with the BBC on July 18. "I believe that if we are united and follow, for example, the format of the peace summit, we can end the hot stage of the war. We can try to do it by the end of this year," Zelensky said. While promising that such a "plan will be ready," the president did not disclose any practical details on what it could entail.

Meloni let slip last year in that prank call that Europe wants to wind this up despite all their posturing and front of house statements even Zelenskiy is softening his never negotiate stand. Trump winning changes that dynamic drastically and will shatter this fragile European unity should it even exist. He will create the conditions and excuses for an off ramp which will be taken. Whether Ukraine ever recovers and attracts it's lost citizens and investment in reconstruction back is a moot point. Ending the war also gives Zelenskiy his own personal exit strategy - he is tired and increasingly paranoid. He has done more than enough to earn his place in history but the recalcitrant battle hardened extreme nationalist forces armed and angry at the sell out will be the domninant narrative in that landscape should it occur. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/01/italy-giorgia-meloni-prank-call-russia-ukraine-war “There is a lot of tiredness on all sides,” Meloni is heard saying regarding Russia’s war in Ukraine. “The moment is approaching when everyone will understand that we need a way out. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/being-volodymyr-zelenskiy-how-war-has-changed-ukraines-leader-2024-07-12/ At the same time, Zelenskiy has grown increasingly "paranoid" about suspected Russian attempts to assassinate him and destabilise Ukraine's leadership, according to a senior European official who has held talks with the leader. "And rightly so," the official added.

I think without doubt we can remove the doubt !

China sending a powerful message as to where their sympathies lie. Analysts say the military collaboration with Belarus in particular marks a new chapter in China's European foreign policy objectives. "China has been very cautious and careful about extending military presence to Europe, or areas traditionally seen as close to NATO's core area," Sun wrote. "This joint exercise changes that. Given the timing, the exercise is evidently linked to the NATO summit in Washington that has Japanese and Korean participation. It is tit-for-tat." https://www.voanews.com/a/china-signals-defiance-to-nato-with-military-drills-in-belarus-/7696140.html

The excellent Simon Jenkins nailing it as ever. Non-military sanctions against Russia have failed. They have deterred no one, and have solidified Putin. They have punished western economies, cohered autocracies and cut Russia off from networks of persuasion or contact. Even the back channels so vital in the Cuban missile and Andropov crises have apparently weakened. There is no evidence that Putin was ever seeking a hot war with the west. He made a terrible mistake in marching on Kyiv, one from which he needs somehow to be extricated. But when peace-making is so neglected an art – when it is now derided as appeasement – it is depressing that a British prime minister should be a cheerleader for war. Is Ukraine really to be Starmer’s Iraq? https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jul/15/prime-minister-cheerleading-war-ukraine-starmer-iraq-nato

Vote Jill Stein and stop the steal ! This computer modelling of the Trump bullet is amazing -must be God !

In response, Trump campaign spokesperson Steven Cheung told Reuters: "President Trump is the most effective statesman and negotiator in history, and he will solve this conflict when he is elected."😂