goatfarmer

23 minutes ago, ParkerN said:

 

So you'll be getting the Sinovac vaccine then - when?

A false dichotomy: the choice is not Sinovac or not Sinovac. There are other options. Astra Zeneca is here already and JnJ has been approved?

Any more fallacies? Bring'em on! 

4 minutes ago, ParkerN said:

Hmmm. Well, not to cast aspersions (something we should all avoid doing), balancing this risk seems to involve more pirouetting than I would find acceptable. But that's just me...

You're right. With such incomplete and conflicting information floating around, it is difficult to make a balanced calculation. But the stats from countries like Israel and the UK make a compelling case for vaccination.

6 minutes ago, ParkerN said:

Indeed. And let us all try to pretend this was totally unexpected and that that Sinovc is in fact, completely safe; it all being a 'misunderstanding', while a certain someone rushes to prepare remedial actions at the direct expense of the Thai people.

 

Phrase like throwing and trusting spring readily to mind. A foul-up like this might become, is rarely an accident. Of course nobody will be held accountable, that's a given. But that is not at all the same thing as nobody being responsible.

"completely safe" is a straw man (a misrepresentation of an opponent's argument, usually by exaggeration) No one is suggesting that the vaccine should be completely safe, nor that it should be completely effective. It is a risk balancing calculation. 

1 hour ago, BadSpottedDog said:

Same issues are happening in the states with Pfitzer and Moderna. It's just not getting coverage.

Note sure how legit this site is. But there are some interesting claims of long term side effects: parasthesia, fatigue, blurry vision. Notwithstanding, most of the commenters suggest that better to be vaccinated than not. No doubt, being in the US, they have first hand anecdotal experience.

https://medshadow.org/covid19-vaccine-side-effects/

On 4/20/2021 at 3:41 PM, champers said:

June, so must we presume it is AZ?

More likely Sinovac.

3 hours ago, Kaopad999 said:

Mind you people were saying that after the last covid wave, but thy seemed to get things under control pretty well. 
Let's hope they can do the same this time by the end of this month. 

Right. They didn't lock down until after New Year. It was almost the same scenario as now, albeit smaller scale holiday. Let's see if luck will hold or whether the fates have been tempted one time too many.

7 hours ago, spiekerjozef said:

Agree.
Sputnik VII it is...

Price appears to be the same as J&J: around $10. Not sure which I would go for. Sputnik has one advantage of J&J. But the latter seems to be 100% effective after 7 weeks on a single dose. I guess it depends on which ever is available. 

22 hours ago, from the home of CC said:

may be the least of every ones worries, I guess time will tell if the vaccines available will be effective down the road..

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2268014-exclusive-two-variants-have-merged-into-heavily-mutated-coronavirus/

 

a lot more study is needed but this is the stuff that keeps epidemiologists awake at night.. 

"Recombination could lead to the emergence of new and even more dangerous variants, although it isn’t yet clear how much of a threat this first recombination event might pose."

Might it also not create a less dangerous variant? Isn't that more probable?

22 hours ago, alyx said:

I would get the Russian one without hesitation but would love the Johnson and Johnson  if it proves efficient

I've heard good things about the Russian vaccine:

"The use of two varying serotypes, which are given 21 days apart, is intended to overcome any pre-existing adenovirus immunity in the population.2 Among the major COVID vaccines in development to date, only Gam-COVID-Vac uses this approach; others, such as the Oxford–AstraZeneca vaccine, use the same material for both doses."

The theory is that we could be immune to one type of Adenovirus, so if two variants are used, the chances of our immune system zapping the vaccine would be reduced. However, trials of the J&J, using Adenorvirus (26) only, showed 100% efficacy 49 days after administration. It only requires a single dose. 

Concerns of sceptics addressed here:

"The development of the Sputnik V vaccine has been criticised for unseemly haste, corner cutting, and an absence of transparency.

8 hours ago, Sheryl said:

The key question is to what extent  have infections in that "bridge" population (Thais  in connect with migrant workers) seeded infections  n the broader Thai community.

Presumably those 'bridge' people and their families are being tested as well. However, it would seem unlikely that all could be traced and tested. And it only takes one. 

9 hours ago, Sheryl said:

 

the infections in migrants are for the most part people who live and work together ion a specific place so reflect a localized problem. Whereas other local cases reflect how widespread the problem has become/is becoming.

 

It is quite useful to look at these numbers separately.  We already know there has been considerable (and mostly asymptomatic) spread among migrant workers in Samut Sakhon. What remains to be seen is to what extent this has seeded clusters elsewhere and how fast those spread.

Right. The question is, how long would we have to wait to find out? I guess we should hunker down until we find out, as we did in March and April.

15 hours ago, dinsdale said:

Taiwan closed their borders immidiately. They were the first country to do so. Mass mask wearing. Got on top of it quickly. Guess they didn't need mass testing. Tawain is also very SMALL.

It's also an island into which exogenous people cannot walk unless possessing some messiah-like quality. 

13 hours ago, Banoo said:

I’ve had fever for nearly 8 days. A persistent dry cough. And now headaches. I went to a hospital yesterday. Doctor touched my stomach and said stomach virus. I asked about a Covid test and was told not necessary. I’m not saying I have Covid. And thankfully because of Tylenol every 6 hours I am feeling better. But I found it strange with everything going on today, they didn’t even want to check. 

This would appear to be negligence on the part of the doctor. I would go elsewhere and get a test with those symptoms. 

16 hours ago, jlwilliamsjr18 said:

Very concerning, that a laissez-faire attitude has led to this. Hopeful, is key but immediate action and deep introspective research is needed. It's no coincidence that viruses thrive in fresh markets, even among humans.

It's not a laissez faire attitude. It's complacency after months of dodging bullets. It would happen anywhere. Inevitably, reality catches up - a bit sooner than we would have hoped. 

6 hours ago, Wongkitlo said:

There are a lot of resources online. I was surprised that some seemed quite cheap.

True. I was hoping for a face to face tutor. Failing that, online would be the solution.

15 hours ago, Jake72 said:

 

If you've been in Thailand since the outbreak started, have you had a cold during this time?

 

No. This has been the healthiest year of my life. 

6 hours ago, sirineou said:

Covid incidents  might be kept low by not testing, but how do you hide deaths and hospitals ICUs being overwhelmed with intubated patients ? 

Exactly. I remember calculating in mid March that if the exponential growth rate of hospitalizations (around 9% per day) continued for six more weeks we would have 400,000 to 500,000 hospitalizations by the end of April. Could've happened. Didn't happen. Hasn't happened. 

On 12/17/2020 at 4:36 AM, lujanit said:

Don't test the wider population, can't report positives.

 

No autopsies performed on the elderly who die, can't report positives.

 

Report people who die from respiratory illness as having died from viral pneumonia.

 

While it might seem as Thailand has done a good job of managing covid the figures which are reported are grossly understated (same as deaths on roads, only report people who are dead at the scene). This is a function of all authoritarian 'governments'.

I doubt it. We would have heard plenty of anecdotal evidence of death and morbidity if the virus were widespread but its effect was being suppressed or under-reported. You can't keep an epidemic a secret.

I'm looking for a part time 'creative writing teacher' for a 10 year old. Just a couple of hours per week. Any suggestions?

22 hours ago, Suradit69 said:

I don’t see that as a problem and fully support the idea that the Thai government would prioritize its citizens. I seriously doubt I’ll need to start saving to pay for the vaccination anymore than I have to for regular medical care from a private hospital. Thailand has kept me safer from the virus than my country has done for its residents. I can contribute to further protect myself without whining about it.

I too. Nothing to whine about. This is a mass market vaccine, not some exotic, boutique cocktail for the rich. The goal would be to vaccinate as many people as possible which can only be achieved at a reasonable, affordable price. 

11 hours ago, mark131v said:

My wife has just mentioned her mum and some other family members are very unwell with a cough and a fever, I asked if she was going to get a covid test done:

 

'no need because it's the cold season she always get's sick due to the cold weather'

 

That in a nutshell is the Thai response, nobody gets a test either through lack of finance or fear of being locked in quarantine rather than working

 

Hospitals are quick to blame covid type s&s as a cold, flu, dengue, pneumonia, anything but covid

 

I believe people who die are not routinely tested. That's the reason for low number...

"...she always get's sick due to the cold weather."

Still in the middle/dark ages. The germ theory of disease has made little penetration. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Germ_theory_of_disease

15 hours ago, poohy said:

How on earth do you close or patrol a land border?

i live about 14 km from the Burmese Dansingkorn border crossing thats closed or patrolled at least

 

However there's dozens of side roads tracks fields you can walk through (no know the way  cigarettes and whisky and other "stuff" gets in) 

 

I seriously doubt these 2 girls are the only ones doing this

 

 

Exactly. This must have been going on continually. For some reason, this incident was discovered and reported. Might it have been because the villains in question had the good sense to get tested?