goatfarmer

3 hours ago, Kaopad999 said:

Mind you people were saying that after the last covid wave, but thy seemed to get things under control pretty well. 
Let's hope they can do the same this time by the end of this month. 

Right. They didn't lock down until after New Year. It was almost the same scenario as now, albeit smaller scale holiday. Let's see if luck will hold or whether the fates have been tempted one time too many.

7 hours ago, spiekerjozef said:

Agree.
Sputnik VII it is...

Price appears to be the same as J&J: around $10. Not sure which I would go for. Sputnik has one advantage of J&J. But the latter seems to be 100% effective after 7 weeks on a single dose. I guess it depends on which ever is available. 

22 hours ago, from the home of CC said:

may be the least of every ones worries, I guess time will tell if the vaccines available will be effective down the road..

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2268014-exclusive-two-variants-have-merged-into-heavily-mutated-coronavirus/

 

a lot more study is needed but this is the stuff that keeps epidemiologists awake at night.. 

"Recombination could lead to the emergence of new and even more dangerous variants, although it isn’t yet clear how much of a threat this first recombination event might pose."

Might it also not create a less dangerous variant? Isn't that more probable?

22 hours ago, alyx said:

I would get the Russian one without hesitation but would love the Johnson and Johnson  if it proves efficient

I've heard good things about the Russian vaccine:

"The use of two varying serotypes, which are given 21 days apart, is intended to overcome any pre-existing adenovirus immunity in the population.2 Among the major COVID vaccines in development to date, only Gam-COVID-Vac uses this approach; others, such as the Oxford–AstraZeneca vaccine, use the same material for both doses."

The theory is that we could be immune to one type of Adenovirus, so if two variants are used, the chances of our immune system zapping the vaccine would be reduced. However, trials of the J&J, using Adenorvirus (26) only, showed 100% efficacy 49 days after administration. It only requires a single dose. 

Concerns of sceptics addressed here:

"The development of the Sputnik V vaccine has been criticised for unseemly haste, corner cutting, and an absence of transparency.

8 hours ago, Sheryl said:

The key question is to what extent  have infections in that "bridge" population (Thais  in connect with migrant workers) seeded infections  n the broader Thai community.

Presumably those 'bridge' people and their families are being tested as well. However, it would seem unlikely that all could be traced and tested. And it only takes one. 

9 hours ago, Sheryl said:

 

the infections in migrants are for the most part people who live and work together ion a specific place so reflect a localized problem. Whereas other local cases reflect how widespread the problem has become/is becoming.

 

It is quite useful to look at these numbers separately.  We already know there has been considerable (and mostly asymptomatic) spread among migrant workers in Samut Sakhon. What remains to be seen is to what extent this has seeded clusters elsewhere and how fast those spread.

Right. The question is, how long would we have to wait to find out? I guess we should hunker down until we find out, as we did in March and April.

15 hours ago, dinsdale said:

Taiwan closed their borders immidiately. They were the first country to do so. Mass mask wearing. Got on top of it quickly. Guess they didn't need mass testing. Tawain is also very SMALL.

It's also an island into which exogenous people cannot walk unless possessing some messiah-like quality. 

13 hours ago, Banoo said:

I’ve had fever for nearly 8 days. A persistent dry cough. And now headaches. I went to a hospital yesterday. Doctor touched my stomach and said stomach virus. I asked about a Covid test and was told not necessary. I’m not saying I have Covid. And thankfully because of Tylenol every 6 hours I am feeling better. But I found it strange with everything going on today, they didn’t even want to check. 

This would appear to be negligence on the part of the doctor. I would go elsewhere and get a test with those symptoms. 

16 hours ago, jlwilliamsjr18 said:

Very concerning, that a laissez-faire attitude has led to this. Hopeful, is key but immediate action and deep introspective research is needed. It's no coincidence that viruses thrive in fresh markets, even among humans.

It's not a laissez faire attitude. It's complacency after months of dodging bullets. It would happen anywhere. Inevitably, reality catches up - a bit sooner than we would have hoped. 

6 hours ago, Wongkitlo said:

There are a lot of resources online. I was surprised that some seemed quite cheap.

True. I was hoping for a face to face tutor. Failing that, online would be the solution.

15 hours ago, Jake72 said:

 

If you've been in Thailand since the outbreak started, have you had a cold during this time?

 

No. This has been the healthiest year of my life. 

6 hours ago, sirineou said:

Covid incidents  might be kept low by not testing, but how do you hide deaths and hospitals ICUs being overwhelmed with intubated patients ? 

Exactly. I remember calculating in mid March that if the exponential growth rate of hospitalizations (around 9% per day) continued for six more weeks we would have 400,000 to 500,000 hospitalizations by the end of April. Could've happened. Didn't happen. Hasn't happened. 

On 12/17/2020 at 4:36 AM, lujanit said:

Don't test the wider population, can't report positives.

 

No autopsies performed on the elderly who die, can't report positives.

 

Report people who die from respiratory illness as having died from viral pneumonia.

 

While it might seem as Thailand has done a good job of managing covid the figures which are reported are grossly understated (same as deaths on roads, only report people who are dead at the scene). This is a function of all authoritarian 'governments'.

I doubt it. We would have heard plenty of anecdotal evidence of death and morbidity if the virus were widespread but its effect was being suppressed or under-reported. You can't keep an epidemic a secret.

I'm looking for a part time 'creative writing teacher' for a 10 year old. Just a couple of hours per week. Any suggestions?

22 hours ago, Suradit69 said:

I don’t see that as a problem and fully support the idea that the Thai government would prioritize its citizens. I seriously doubt I’ll need to start saving to pay for the vaccination anymore than I have to for regular medical care from a private hospital. Thailand has kept me safer from the virus than my country has done for its residents. I can contribute to further protect myself without whining about it.

I too. Nothing to whine about. This is a mass market vaccine, not some exotic, boutique cocktail for the rich. The goal would be to vaccinate as many people as possible which can only be achieved at a reasonable, affordable price. 

11 hours ago, mark131v said:

My wife has just mentioned her mum and some other family members are very unwell with a cough and a fever, I asked if she was going to get a covid test done:

 

'no need because it's the cold season she always get's sick due to the cold weather'

 

That in a nutshell is the Thai response, nobody gets a test either through lack of finance or fear of being locked in quarantine rather than working

 

Hospitals are quick to blame covid type s&s as a cold, flu, dengue, pneumonia, anything but covid

 

I believe people who die are not routinely tested. That's the reason for low number...

"...she always get's sick due to the cold weather."

Still in the middle/dark ages. The germ theory of disease has made little penetration. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Germ_theory_of_disease

15 hours ago, poohy said:

How on earth do you close or patrol a land border?

i live about 14 km from the Burmese Dansingkorn border crossing thats closed or patrolled at least

 

However there's dozens of side roads tracks fields you can walk through (no know the way  cigarettes and whisky and other "stuff" gets in) 

 

I seriously doubt these 2 girls are the only ones doing this

 

 

Exactly. This must have been going on continually. For some reason, this incident was discovered and reported. Might it have been because the villains in question had the good sense to get tested?

17 hours ago, nycjoe said:

You can wade across the river. 

You can walk over the ridge. I would be surprised if this is the first incident in 10 months, albeit the first reported incident.

On 11/13/2020 at 11:44 AM, keith101 said:

Why would tourists come here if the BAHT is to high all over again which will reduce their ability to spend money .

The over valued baht will hit exports more as companies will not buy as much goods due to the poor exchange rate .

"Why would tourists come here if the BAHT is to high all over again which will reduce their ability to spend money ."

Because a few percentage change in the value of the baht is unlikely to affect their travel budgeting.

"The over valued baht will hit exports more as companies will not buy as much goods due to the poor exchange rate ."

Most exports are not priced in baht. Exports are 80% invoiced in dollars. Euro and Yen perhaps another 10%. Much, if not most of the appreciation of the baht would be demand from Thai exporters buying baht for local needs. . The only way that exporters would be hit would be by getting less baht for their buck. 

On 10/15/2020 at 10:10 PM, dimitriv said:

 

 

 

Nobody could have expected this. The only problem are the people who say that they knew that this would happen and blame others for not expecting this.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I used to travel overseas every month or two. It became pretty clear by late February that returning to Thailand might be a problem. Not wishing to take the risk of not being allowed back, I stayed put. 

14 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Dr. Thanarak is misinformed and misguided. 

 

A safe approach is to allow ANY person from ANY nation starting tomorrow, in unlimited quantities, if they are willing to subject themselves to a 14 day quarantine and pay excessive fees for that two week sentence. There is no downside or risk, and only upside for the nation. No groveling from a local consulate should be required. That is utter nonsense. And no special health insurance either. Just another hurdle tourists will NOT jump over! A covid free letter and a booking at an approved hotel. 2 requirements. That is all that will be tolerated by tourists. 

 

In reality if they were serious about reinvigorating long term tourism, they would subsidize the quarantine, pay for at least half of it, and then maybe some people would come. At this point, they may be sabotaging tourism long term, beyond repair. Expect a million tourists in 2021, two to three million in 2022, and beyond that?

 

Thailand will never, ever again see over 30 million tourists. That is in the past. Trillions of baht invested in tourism down the drain. The sooner these companies write off their Thai investments, the better. 

See the Greek model: no insurance requirement, state pays for your quarantine and/or hospitalization if you develop covid symptoms during your stay. https://travel.gov.gr/#/

16 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

The virus could have spread through Thailand already (in Nov / Dec / Jan / Feb) and Thailand didn’t recognise it at the time (although there were reports of massive increases in viral pneumonia at the time). 

Its possible Thailand now has immunity within the general population and thus opening up poses no risk.

This is not known without testing (PCR testing and also Antibody testing which is not wholly accurate). 

Given the number of Chinese tourists in Thailand during these months, and the fact that the first reported case outside China was Thailand, it is conceivable that the Thailand developed some degree of herd immunity before the virus was identified. I'd like to see those reports of 'massive increases' in viral pneumonia. 

Antibody testing is not reliable for individuals (who were infected but didn't produce antibodies), but as an epidemiological tool, it might shed some light on the herd immunity question. 

16 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

Thailand is currently airing on the side of extreme caution when caution may not be necessary at all. 

 

 

 

Extreme caution is not sustainable long term. At some point, we're going to have to face the reality: the virus is not going away. 

1 hour ago, Throatwobbler said:

To the majority of posters you do understand that this man is a doctor, his job is to comment on the health issues. It is up to other people to discuss economic impacts.

 

it is also fun to see how many armchair experts there are at home who barely passes high school science but are suddenly world wide experts on infectious diseases. You has better hope that a second wave does not hit Thailand as due to the aged the average TV user there would suddenly be half as many commentators

And how do you expect that a second wave won't hit Thailand? Stay in a bubble for the all eternity?