goatfarmer

17 hours ago, nycjoe said:

You can wade across the river. 

You can walk over the ridge. I would be surprised if this is the first incident in 10 months, albeit the first reported incident.

On 11/13/2020 at 11:44 AM, keith101 said:

Why would tourists come here if the BAHT is to high all over again which will reduce their ability to spend money .

The over valued baht will hit exports more as companies will not buy as much goods due to the poor exchange rate .

"Why would tourists come here if the BAHT is to high all over again which will reduce their ability to spend money ."

Because a few percentage change in the value of the baht is unlikely to affect their travel budgeting.

"The over valued baht will hit exports more as companies will not buy as much goods due to the poor exchange rate ."

Most exports are not priced in baht. Exports are 80% invoiced in dollars. Euro and Yen perhaps another 10%. Much, if not most of the appreciation of the baht would be demand from Thai exporters buying baht for local needs. . The only way that exporters would be hit would be by getting less baht for their buck. 

On 10/15/2020 at 10:10 PM, dimitriv said:

 

 

 

Nobody could have expected this. The only problem are the people who say that they knew that this would happen and blame others for not expecting this.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I used to travel overseas every month or two. It became pretty clear by late February that returning to Thailand might be a problem. Not wishing to take the risk of not being allowed back, I stayed put. 

14 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Dr. Thanarak is misinformed and misguided. 

 

A safe approach is to allow ANY person from ANY nation starting tomorrow, in unlimited quantities, if they are willing to subject themselves to a 14 day quarantine and pay excessive fees for that two week sentence. There is no downside or risk, and only upside for the nation. No groveling from a local consulate should be required. That is utter nonsense. And no special health insurance either. Just another hurdle tourists will NOT jump over! A covid free letter and a booking at an approved hotel. 2 requirements. That is all that will be tolerated by tourists. 

 

In reality if they were serious about reinvigorating long term tourism, they would subsidize the quarantine, pay for at least half of it, and then maybe some people would come. At this point, they may be sabotaging tourism long term, beyond repair. Expect a million tourists in 2021, two to three million in 2022, and beyond that?

 

Thailand will never, ever again see over 30 million tourists. That is in the past. Trillions of baht invested in tourism down the drain. The sooner these companies write off their Thai investments, the better. 

See the Greek model: no insurance requirement, state pays for your quarantine and/or hospitalization if you develop covid symptoms during your stay. https://travel.gov.gr/#/

16 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

The virus could have spread through Thailand already (in Nov / Dec / Jan / Feb) and Thailand didn’t recognise it at the time (although there were reports of massive increases in viral pneumonia at the time). 

Its possible Thailand now has immunity within the general population and thus opening up poses no risk.

This is not known without testing (PCR testing and also Antibody testing which is not wholly accurate). 

Given the number of Chinese tourists in Thailand during these months, and the fact that the first reported case outside China was Thailand, it is conceivable that the Thailand developed some degree of herd immunity before the virus was identified. I'd like to see those reports of 'massive increases' in viral pneumonia. 

Antibody testing is not reliable for individuals (who were infected but didn't produce antibodies), but as an epidemiological tool, it might shed some light on the herd immunity question. 

16 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

Thailand is currently airing on the side of extreme caution when caution may not be necessary at all. 

 

 

 

Extreme caution is not sustainable long term. At some point, we're going to have to face the reality: the virus is not going away. 

1 hour ago, Throatwobbler said:

To the majority of posters you do understand that this man is a doctor, his job is to comment on the health issues. It is up to other people to discuss economic impacts.

 

it is also fun to see how many armchair experts there are at home who barely passes high school science but are suddenly world wide experts on infectious diseases. You has better hope that a second wave does not hit Thailand as due to the aged the average TV user there would suddenly be half as many commentators

And how do you expect that a second wave won't hit Thailand? Stay in a bubble for the all eternity? 

23 hours ago, Thaiwrath said:

Another rich <deleted>, sitting in his office on a nice salary.

It is not about big businesses making money, it's about getting millions of normal Thais out of poverty, and able to put food on the table for their families. 

 

It's also about biting the bullet and acquiring herd immunity, probably the only way to mitigate the risk long term.

6 hours ago, Why Me said:

The problem seems that Thailand has become a prisoner of its 0 cases in 100 days record. They are terrified that if the streak breaks, if even 1 local transmission happens, then the floodgates will open, 1000s will die, the junta will fall and there will never ever be a Songkran again.

 

They need to get into a more tolerant mindset like the Greeks and Turks. Right now what they are doing is akin to autoerotic asphyxiation. And economy could end like David Carradine.

You make a good point. We have had a remarkably good ride over the last few months which, no doubt, makes the inevitable 'second wave' all the more foreboding. But the current situation can't go on indefinitely. There is too much at stake for the economy. At some point the bullet will have to be bitten. 

12 minutes ago, Bluetongue said:

Do they understand where the surge in daily cases is coming from? Or more simply is it because of tourists?

It's not clear. But it does not appear to be predominantly from tourists. 

https://www.atoz-guides.com/coronavirus-in-greece-update/

Greece opened to tourism in July. They are requiring testing on arrival and tracing, but no quarantines or expensive insurance. If you are found to be Covid positive, the Greek government will cover the expenses of transport and hospitalization. Close contacts will be quarantined at the expense of the Greek state. 

The procedure is set out here: https://travel.gov.gr/#/

Greece has experienced a surge in Covid cases since July, as was expected,

... but the rate of deaths to cases has declined since the first wave. 

Thailand ranked fourth in the world in 2018 in terms of tourism receipts:

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ST.INT.RCPT.CD?most_recent_value_desc=true

$65 billion is around 15% of 2017 GDP of 455 billion.

Thailand should be monitoring the Greek model. Tourism will not be encouraged by making the tourist pay for tests, requiring exorbitant sums for insurance and keeping them in quarantine for two weeks.  If the Greek model works - and it might be too soon to tell - it should be adopted.

8 hours ago, RotBenz8888 said:

It has already collapsed, and it started long before covid19. 

Right, with more than $60 billion revenue per annum, 10% growth year on year up to last year and ranking 4th place in the world in terms of revenue. 

8 hours ago, Dumbastheycome said:

It need be acknowledged that there is an inevitable lag time for recorded fatalities from an increase in infection rates. No doubt there will those  who will insist that these two graphs "prove" the risk level has been exaggerated  as  opposed to the  reality  only  time  will tell !

With vaccines near  becoming available ( reportedly ! ) the  decision to wait  or open up is not a choice I would  wish on anyone. The  damage done so far could easily be compounded if a significant community infection rate arises for  any reason. Thailand  may be seen as an attractive  destination now because it is  presents low  risk. Tourist arrivals  may be a short lived  boon if that situation changes.

Exactly. The question should be, what is the best long term solution?Unfortunately, no one knows. Any action would be based on a guess, a hope and a prayer.

On 3/14/2020 at 10:54 AM, tropo said:

I think your comment was stupid. Asymptomatic people can spread it for days before they get sick. People who have symptoms have probably infected 100's of people already, both directly or indirectly. 

 

 

 

Further, transmission in the first 3-5 days of illness, or potentially pre-symptomatic transmission –transmission of the virus before the appearance of symptoms – is a major driver of transmission for influenza. In contrast, while we are learning that there are people who can shed COVID-19 virus 24-48 hours prior to symptom onset, at present, this does not appear to be a major driver of transmission.

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200306-sitrep-46-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=96b04adf_2

"We know the mortality rate is around 3.4% or 3,594 at time of posting according to Johns Hopkins CSSE."

3.4% of what? Total reported cases? Certainly not total number of people infected. In Korea the mortality rate is around 0.6% of tested cases. Even that wouldn't account for all of the cases. So, quite likely, much less than 0.6%.  

17 hours ago, KeeTua said:

The argument that it maybe Thailand's warmer climate contributes to the relatively few cases doesn't explain why Singapore has so many more cases reported.

 

Singapore population 6 million
As of March 1 - 106 cases

Thailand 70 million
As of March 5 - 47 cases

 

One thing that could set Thailand apart from some of the other Asian countries could be that the vast majority of the population live their lives outside of enclosed, air conditioned spaces. Government hospitals are open air affairs as are the typical clinics. Restaurants and shopping open air, homes with doors and windows open most of the time, no air-con. Philippines is similar with a low number of reported cases.

 

The website " Coronavirus disease 2019: Cases in Singapore" is very cool with it's timeline, too bad there isn't a similar one in Thailand:
https://www.gov.sg/article/covid-19-cases-in-singapore

This argument assumes that reported cases are the total number of actual cases. This is nonsense. Read my post above. 

Thailand, thankfully, has not gone on a massive testing spree, as in Europe and Korea, the net result of which has been to create panic as the ignorati confuses 'reported cases' for 'total actual cases' and inflates the case fatality rate. 

So the number of 'confirmed cases' in Thailand is small. The number of suspected cases is much higher. It can be found from the Department of Disease Control. As at 11am on 4th March there were 3,680 'patients under investigation' PUI, of whom 1,545 were in hospital. 

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/situation/situation-no60-030363.pdf

Even the number of 3,680 is probably a tiny fraction of actual cases, most of which have mild or no symptoms:

"Australia's chief medical officer, Professor Brendan Murphy, told Senate estimates that 80 per cent of people who contract coronavirus exhibit "such mild symptoms they barely notice it and that's particularly the case in children"." https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-04/coronavirus-nsw-second-death-confirmed-22-cases/12023216

I know three people who have had symptoms resembling the virus (dry cough, fever, malaise, aches and pains). One was quite sick, the other sick, but still went travelling overseas, the other very mild. None of them sought medical attention. All have recovered. I suspect that the majority of cases are in this category - unreported.

7 minutes ago, Miami007 said:

Having 2 virus infections at the same time is the doctor's worst nightmare. 

Let's also keep in mind that prolonged bed rest can cause pneumonia as well without the virus itself being the reason. Apparently the patient was in the hospital for 1 month

I had flu and a parasite infection at the same time: a double whammy - most unpleasant.

If the patient was in hospital for a month and he wasn't admitted for pneumonia, might we assume he caught the bug in the hospital? Another reason to stay away from hospitals as much as possible. 

21 hours ago, christophe75 said:

Read the article on Matichon.

 

-35 years old

-no underlying conditions.

 

Lungs ravaged.

 

The nurse who took care of him : severe pneumonia.

 

Voilà. But do not forget, it's just a flu, and it kills only very old people full of conditions [complete the list with all the BS of lalaland brigade] etc.

 

https://www.matichon.co.th/heading-news/news_2016677

OK, I read the article in Matichon. It says, 'no chronic illnesses whatsoever'. I don't see 'no underlying illness'. Dengue presumably wouldn't be a chronic illness. It would be acute. Chronic illnesses would include heart, kidney, liver disease, high blood pressure, diabetes, etc.

20 hours ago, Seismic said:

Currently the death rate without any preexisting conditions is 0.9%, the death rate for ages 10-39 is 0.2%, the death rate for males is significantly higher than females (2.8% vs 1.7%). On children under the age of 10 have died.

Currently, the death rate is only known for reported cases, which is only a subset of total cases which may be orders of magnitude greater than reported caess. One cannot make claims about 'the death rate' with a virus that is new, highly contagious and leaves many people with mild or no symptoms. https://smw.ch/article/doi/smw.2020.20203

So what are the options? Have visitors from overseas bring in care packages?

20 minutes ago, CGW said:

I have about a 90% success rate getting cigars sent here, there is one company will refund if cigars don't arrive.

Where is 'here'? Seems like there are different rules in Bangkok and Pattaya.

How many times have you imported cigars?

How about for personal use? If I import a single box or a bundle for personal consumption will they be returned to sender at Laem Chabang customs?

4 minutes ago, DM07 said:

No "sir"- I am suggesting that THIS PARTICULAR man is not credible!

Is that too hard to understand?

Since 'this particular man' makes up part of the 97%, I'll take that as a 'yes'. Not all of the '97%' are 'credible'. 

Here are a few more you might like to exclude from the list:

http://www.populartechnology.net/2013/05/97-study-falsely-classifies-scientists.html

23 minutes ago, DM07 said:

Dr. Craig Idso: (Wikipedia) "He is the former Director of Environmental Science at Peabody Energy"

And what is Peabody Energy?

Well: "Peabody Energy, (...) is the largest private-sector coal company in the world."

What a totally credible climate change critic!

 

Bye! ?

Wasn't Craig Idso's paper included in the study from which the 97% meme originated? Doesn't that make him one of the '97% of climate scientists'? Are you suggesting that not all of the 97% of climate scientists are credible?