OnMyWay2

4 minutes ago, AlexCanada said:

Why do you continue reading the Thailand forums if you 're not returning?

If you check my post history you would see that I haven't posted in years. 

Yes I get bored that’s where the 2mil “Lumpini box” come in handy,  you just buy 5 of them :)

Should I come visit to pay my respects or are people in a bad mood in general?

In Thailand you almost need to buy multiple places. Being stuck in the same condo is not very appealing because something always goes wrong.

It's the price. If you're gonna play cheap charlie then you gotta get used to the lifestyle.

renting is a way better deal unless prices fall by a lot.

The USA does appear to be an economy that is immune to the laws of economics. Theyve allegedly been printing up to $80 billion a month since the Bush days not to mention truck loads of treasury bonds that are basically IOU's 5 to 10 years out.

If any other country did this their economy would collapse in a pile of dung. I think one of the reasons why the Swiss and US dollars are strong is because the Euro and EU in general are a disaster.

What also helps the USA is its massive cheap labour workforce that is a flow on from the slave era. This huge 'slave' work force doesnt exist anywhere else in the developed world.

In America millions of people work for a pittance and rely heavily on Tipping to survive. Obviously Americans have no rights to a fair wage .

Employers get rich by making the customer subside the wages paid to staff. TIPS !

In the American service industry the customer has to pay for his meal and the staffs wages. The employers arent going to pay them.

Strange country America.

What Also help is general stability, freedom, rule of law, immigration, foreigners can own land, etc.

Which is why people flee to the $ and the US and not the baht.

If you have 5 years I would go with the beaten down steel companies. look at AKS it's at about 3 right now in my opinion it could easily go to 15.

I doubt you could see that kind of return in Google.

dude is not arab clearly Asian.

i think 35 is good as 36.. my question is if and when it does break 36 what follows next? how long ago were you expecting 36? may i ask what financial steps you took to take advantage/protect your self from the thb devaluation?

I don't pretend to know exactly where it will end up, but last time the US economy was firing all cylinders from 2002 - 2005 the dollar was stable around 41. From a macro perspective this is where things are headed.

Did some more digging and actually the only time the dollar has been below 35 is with the Fed funds rate at 0. So this can hardly be considered a normal equilibrium even though it's been like that for a while now.

That's where I came up with my conservative 36 price target a while back.

What happens after 36? Well

It's gone to 35 faster than I expected so it could overshoot on the upside before returning to the "stable at 35" level.

I just don't feel comfortable that the dollar is anywhere near stable with interest rates at zero.

I'm not in the thb so no steps needed other than not transferring large sums of cash.

If you're already in thb just spend the money in Thailand where you can still get the same amount of stuff for your baht.

I don't pretend to know exactly where it will end up, but last time the US economy was firing all cylinders from 2002 - 2005 the dollar was stable around 41. From a macro perspective this is where things are headed.

Did some more digging and actually the only time the dollar has been below 35 is with the Fed funds rate at 0. So this can hardly be considered a normal equilibrium even though it's been like that for a while now.

That's where I came up with my conservative 36 price target a while back.

its gotten more crowded not tourists though, more thai people. I was there in May it seemed the economy is taking its toll and people aren't in good spirits.

when it was 30 I said it was going to 36 people here said I was crazy.

Fair enough.

(1) Was it 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013? When did you say that?

(2) When will it hit 36? (2015, 2016, 2017...etc When???)

(Because I believe it will be a long hard struggle to 35)

2010-2013 that was when the Fed was doing QE. The dollar got weaker. 2015-?

The Fed will be raising interest rates. Dollar will get stronger. Basic Econ 101.

We're at 34 and change just on talk of Fed tightening. which hasn't even begun yet.

It could hit 36 this year. Depends on how much of an initial surge there is after the first rate hike.

Just curious, thank you for a great reply. Assuming you bought lots of greenbacks then a few years back at 29?

Do not agree an easing by the Fed back then generated the 30 range .. that was actually a fundamentally strong Baht.

Sort of can't have it both ways, and say "During an easing by the US Fed, and strong internal numbers in Thailand, "I called 36."

Anyway .. filed under "whatever"

I agree that 36 is in our future, but feel we will see a few months of a base formed around 34 (33.50 - 34.50) , then meaningful overhead resistance at 35.

The Fed tightening is already factored into today's price, and again I agree, if they continue to tighten with regularity in the future, then all the pieces are in place.

I have no need to convert my US dollars, and just spend my existing Baht reserves.

But nice to have a box full .. and will certainly begin to ladder into buy opportunity of the weak THB in the future, since the Kingdom is my home.

Have a good weekend.

well I don't want to get too overconfident but that's what "should" happen. Dollar will go up but it could be a bumpy ride.

I wouldn't speculate on it going much higher than it is now so I would have no problem converting my dollars to baht.

when it was 30 I said it was going to 36 people here said I was crazy.

Fair enough.

(1) Was it 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013? When did you say that?

(2) When will it hit 36? (2015, 2016, 2017...etc When???)

(Because I believe it will be a long hard struggle to 35)

2010-2013 that was when the Fed was doing QE. The dollar got weaker. 2015-?

The Fed will be raising interest rates. Dollar will get stronger. Basic Econ 101.

We're at 34 and change just on talk of Fed tightening. which hasn't even begun yet.

It could hit 36 this year. Depends on how much of an initial surge there is after the first rate hike.

when it was 30 I said it was going to 36 people here said I was crazy.

I'm guessing that posting spam for a condo must be OK. Reading the article, the vast majority of the units have been sold. Evidently those buyers found the sales office.

quick look at my post history will show I'm the last person to shill for a condo.

It does appear to be sold out. I guess that's why no sales office.

I fly them all the time. I like sexy russian stewardesses

http://newpattaya.com/construction/the-base-central-pattaya/

Last time I was there it looked like these was going up pretty quickly.

The location seems pretty good. I wasn't able to find the sales office.

A bubble is when there are few houses or condo s and lots of people chasing to buy them thus pushing up the price. The opposite is happening in thailand where there is a glut of properties that are not selling

That's what happens at the end of the bubble. They end up building too many properties to satisfy the (artificial) demand.

Then prices start to fall.

$155B does not sound like too much compared to the $85B per month quantitative easing program that's about to get sucked out of emerging markets.