OnMyWay2

Should I come visit to pay my respects or are people in a bad mood in general?

It's the price. If you're gonna play cheap charlie then you gotta get used to the lifestyle.

i think 35 is good as 36.. my question is if and when it does break 36 what follows next? how long ago were you expecting 36? may i ask what financial steps you took to take advantage/protect your self from the thb devaluation?

I don't pretend to know exactly where it will end up, but last time the US economy was firing all cylinders from 2002 - 2005 the dollar was stable around 41. From a macro perspective this is where things are headed.

Did some more digging and actually the only time the dollar has been below 35 is with the Fed funds rate at 0. So this can hardly be considered a normal equilibrium even though it's been like that for a while now.

That's where I came up with my conservative 36 price target a while back.

What happens after 36? Well

It's gone to 35 faster than I expected so it could overshoot on the upside before returning to the "stable at 35" level.

I just don't feel comfortable that the dollar is anywhere near stable with interest rates at zero.

I'm not in the thb so no steps needed other than not transferring large sums of cash.

If you're already in thb just spend the money in Thailand where you can still get the same amount of stuff for your baht.

I don't pretend to know exactly where it will end up, but last time the US economy was firing all cylinders from 2002 - 2005 the dollar was stable around 41. From a macro perspective this is where things are headed.

Did some more digging and actually the only time the dollar has been below 35 is with the Fed funds rate at 0. So this can hardly be considered a normal equilibrium even though it's been like that for a while now.

That's where I came up with my conservative 36 price target a while back.

its gotten more crowded not tourists though, more thai people. I was there in May it seemed the economy is taking its toll and people aren't in good spirits.

when it was 30 I said it was going to 36 people here said I was crazy.

Fair enough.

(1) Was it 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013? When did you say that?

(2) When will it hit 36? (2015, 2016, 2017...etc When???)

(Because I believe it will be a long hard struggle to 35)

2010-2013 that was when the Fed was doing QE. The dollar got weaker. 2015-?

The Fed will be raising interest rates. Dollar will get stronger. Basic Econ 101.

We're at 34 and change just on talk of Fed tightening. which hasn't even begun yet.

It could hit 36 this year. Depends on how much of an initial surge there is after the first rate hike.

Just curious, thank you for a great reply. Assuming you bought lots of greenbacks then a few years back at 29?

Do not agree an easing by the Fed back then generated the 30 range .. that was actually a fundamentally strong Baht.

Sort of can't have it both ways, and say "During an easing by the US Fed, and strong internal numbers in Thailand, "I called 36."

Anyway .. filed under "whatever"

I agree that 36 is in our future, but feel we will see a few months of a base formed around 34 (33.50 - 34.50) , then meaningful overhead resistance at 35.

The Fed tightening is already factored into today's price, and again I agree, if they continue to tighten with regularity in the future, then all the pieces are in place.

I have no need to convert my US dollars, and just spend my existing Baht reserves.

But nice to have a box full .. and will certainly begin to ladder into buy opportunity of the weak THB in the future, since the Kingdom is my home.

Have a good weekend.

well I don't want to get too overconfident but that's what "should" happen. Dollar will go up but it could be a bumpy ride.

I wouldn't speculate on it going much higher than it is now so I would have no problem converting my dollars to baht.

when it was 30 I said it was going to 36 people here said I was crazy.

Fair enough.

(1) Was it 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013? When did you say that?

(2) When will it hit 36? (2015, 2016, 2017...etc When???)

(Because I believe it will be a long hard struggle to 35)

2010-2013 that was when the Fed was doing QE. The dollar got weaker. 2015-?

The Fed will be raising interest rates. Dollar will get stronger. Basic Econ 101.

We're at 34 and change just on talk of Fed tightening. which hasn't even begun yet.

It could hit 36 this year. Depends on how much of an initial surge there is after the first rate hike.

when it was 30 I said it was going to 36 people here said I was crazy.

I'm guessing that posting spam for a condo must be OK. Reading the article, the vast majority of the units have been sold. Evidently those buyers found the sales office.

quick look at my post history will show I'm the last person to shill for a condo.

It does appear to be sold out. I guess that's why no sales office.

I fly them all the time. I like sexy russian stewardesses

http://newpattaya.com/construction/the-base-central-pattaya/

Last time I was there it looked like these was going up pretty quickly.

The location seems pretty good. I wasn't able to find the sales office.

A bubble is when there are few houses or condo s and lots of people chasing to buy them thus pushing up the price. The opposite is happening in thailand where there is a glut of properties that are not selling

That's what happens at the end of the bubble. They end up building too many properties to satisfy the (artificial) demand.

Then prices start to fall.

$155B does not sound like too much compared to the $85B per month quantitative easing program that's about to get sucked out of emerging markets.

US dollar will continue to et stronger now that they are in a tightening cycle. The party is just getting started.

I was planning to buy something this time Glad I didn't. And now I left Thailand with zero ties.

I lived in 3 different condos,

Condo 1 = major plumbing issues. Power outage 3 times in a month. Internet outage 7 times is one month.

Condo 2 = water outage 1 time. Internet down for 3 days straight.

Condo 3 = this one was ok! flaky Internet connection but not bad. I was only there for 2 weeks.

I'll come back and rent whichever building is the best next time.

Money better spent buying property in the US.

Your post is sort of ironic because if you are struggling with flaky internet, then why not change provider? Or is that something the landlord (owner) handles?

If you live in an area with power outages then installing a UPS could alleviate some of the frustration, but you probably wouldn’t do that as a renter.

As for plumbing, might also be fixable, but as you did not own the place, you would need to pester the landlord about it. That said, doing due diligence on the plumbing should be on everybody’s list here in Thailand, regardless of whether you rent or buy, as that seems to be something that is often poorly done (missing P-traps and venting of the pipes).

plumbing problem was complex wide. I asked management company about it they said it's too expensive to fix. Internet is also shared throughout the complex. Yeah I probably couldn't installed my own internet even as a renter.

Much easier to just move.

I was planning to buy something this time Glad I didn't. And now I left Thailand with zero ties.

I lived in 3 different condos,

Condo 1 = major plumbing issues. Power outage 3 times in a month. Internet outage 7 times is one month.

Condo 2 = water outage 1 time. Internet down for 3 days straight.

Condo 3 = this one was ok! flaky Internet connection but not bad. I was only there for 2 weeks.

I'll come back and rent whichever building is the best next time.

Money better spent buying property in the US.

Rent because of the ridiculous number of Condos available to rent. Instead of dealing with BS,

It's nice to be able to just pack your bags and leave.

an undeniable advantage enjoyed, not always, but mostly by poor people

Well If you're rich enough to buy a new condo every time your old one has a problem then more power to you.

us poor people just pack our bags and move to the newer building.

its like the wild west, lawless for all practical purposes there are no police, no electoral process, no community input.

The official policy seems to be "get money at any cost no matter what".

Rent because of the ridiculous number of Condos available to rent. Instead of dealing with BS,

It's nice to be able to just pack your bags and leave.

Quiet + the Avenue = does not compute. That is a party zone.

probably half the tenants are short timers from Arab countries.

Might might makes sense as a rental though, the prices are outrageous during high season.

Why do people chime in when they know absolutely nothing about what they are talking about? Never ceases to amaze me. Could you even find the Avenue given a GPS? You have never been there. That is obvious. Party Zone???? Half from Arab countries????? Enjoy your white cane....

I've only been living here for the past 9 months I think I know where it is. That area = party zone.

If you think it's not then maybe you haven't gotten out much.

Where I live? super quiet. I'm not even gonna say where it is because I'm not trying to bring the party here!

I like the smaller buildings because they can still have charm even with age.

Most of the massive complexes will eventually look like housing projects. Especially once you get a bunch of people drying their clothes on the balconies.

Quiet + the Avenue = does not compute. That is a party zone.

probably half the tenants are short timers from Arab countries.

Might might makes sense as a rental though, the prices are outrageous during high season.

Because targeting non black farangs is hardly news worthy.

In Pratumnak you can get brand new 27sq studio for 1.3 and probably haggle the price down some.

That's not even a post-crash discount price.