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donnacha

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Posts posted by donnacha

  1. 9 hours ago, nausea said:

    I was into IT early on, ZX81


    Me too. Great days.

     

    9 hours ago, nausea said:

    I'm guessing I've already missed out on the big gains -  should've, would've, could've;


    People have been saying that for over a decade.

    The reality is that, if you had got in at 9 cents, you would have felt immense pressure to sell at $1, $10, $100 etc. Then, having got out, today you would be watching in horror as the price heads towards $100K. One of the members here sold some of his Bitcoins at some stage to buy a Porsche. I'm sure it was a lot of fun but it must be hard not to look at that aging metal and think about how many millions those coins would be worth today.

    As it is positioned today, I think of Bitcoin as being more like getting into Google early on. Our hunch is that it has great potential, we hope that much of that potential may be achieved by the end of this year because of the unprecedented levels of money-printing.

    We also note that a very small number of companies and financial institutions are investing large amounts, mainly to hedge against dollar debasement. If this trend spreads wider, we can expect their buying to soften the fallbacks and for the general trajectory to ascend more steeply. In a sense, just as the foresight of the early investors in Google was rewarded when their shares became popular with pension funds, we too will be rewarded by being a heartbeat ahead of the financial institutions.

    The main risk is that, unlike early movers such as Tesla, the volatility may put off other financial institutions. As I write, the price is $53.5k, down almost $5k from the 24hr high. Despite also being $5k up on the week, and $21k up on the month, swings of that magnitude may be unnerving for conservative financial folks, leaving the market to mainly rely on individual enthusiasts. That would still mean price growth as the pool of people interested in Bitcoin continues to enlarge, just not as explosive.

     

    • Like 1
  2. 3 hours ago, Berkshire said:

    The real story is the GOP fracturing into two factions, not necessarily just Trump.


    Maybe. We don't really know what the effects will be two years and four years down the road.

    We can probably agree that the impeachment, being clearly politically-driven, forced the Republicans into defending Trump, whereas pretty much every one of them would have voted for a censure. That actually would have ended Trump politically.

    So, the dems have more-or-less guaranteed that Trump remains in control of the party. That might be what they were aiming for but, as I say, they are playing a dangerous game, especially if the economic recovery does not go well, and if they cannot find a vaguely likable candidate for 2024 (they do actually have some great people).

     

    • Like 1
  3. 46 minutes ago, nausea said:

    Agree, if only? Mind you, if it crashes? Personally, I don't go into anything I don't really understand. Working on it, by the time I get my mind wrapped around the concept it will all be over, no doubt.


    My advice is to stick $100 on it, or some other amount you can afford to lose. That is the best way to understand it while also having a bit of fun.

    Let it ride until the end of the year and, by then, you will have a better idea of whether it is something you feel you can get more into.

    It could jump down by 20% tomorrow, but my understanding is that individuals selling at the highs are having their coins snapped up by companies and funds eager to build big positions. This is a new trend. It has meant that we aren't getting the sudden drops we experienced in past years when new highs were achieved.

    Now the highs seem, instead, to be building, one after the other. If this trend continues, it is likely to carry Bitcoin quite far over the coming years - an awful lot of capital is tied up in companies and funds. Bitcoin becoming a more accepted as a way to hedge against dollar debasement gives it an awful lot of room to grow.

    I really don't see how an actual crash, back down to 20k or whatever, could happen at this stage but, of course, you never know. I see a sovereign debt crisis as far more likely, and that would massively boost Bitcoin.

     

    • Like 2
  4. 27 minutes ago, Berkshire said:

    55555....you can't be serious.


    Yeah, of course, I was joking.

    Everyone should, though, chill and have more of a sense of humor about him. If the problem was that he was in power, well, he no longer is.

    The irony is that the hard left's continuing obsession with him, clearly evident even here on ThaiVisa, is keeping his power alive. The media cannot live without him, they keep pumping out these articles. This is actually how he got elected in the first place.

    It staggers belief that, more than a month after the transfer of power, there are still far more articles and online discussions about Trump than the actual president. It wouldn't surprise me if this continues for the entire 4 years.

    This is a dangerous game because, of course, it is not guaranteed that everything will go well for Biden, or that Kamala will find a way to get the 2024 voters to like her. Allowing Trump to continue dominating the public imagination could backfire. 

    • Sad 3
  5. 3 minutes ago, welovesundaysatspace said:

    Where does this amount come from? I thought the commercial terms of the contracts were all confidential (see AZ contract)...


    My Dad owns Montenegro.
     

    4 minutes ago, welovesundaysatspace said:

    other favorable conditions that were negotiated through the joint procurement programme. 


    You must have noticed the big kerfuffle earlier this month when it became clear that the pharma companies wanted to delivery shipments in the same order that they were purchasing, meaning the EU's three-month delay meant being three months behind the UK.

    The other doozy is their relaxed attitude to even authorizing the various various, taking far longer than any other countries despite being provided with exactly the same data. The Irish became so desperate that they even tried to organize their delivery of AZ to be held in a Dublin warehouse so that they could immediately distribute it as soon as the EU got their fingers out. The EU shot down that idea too, saying shipment could not even be allowed on Irish soil until they managed to find their rubber-stamp.
     

    • Haha 2
  6. 2 minutes ago, welovesundaysatspace said:

    Most EU citizens and counties actually moved up the queue thanks to the EU Programme. 


    The EU contains many countries of varying levels of competence. I am mainly aware that two relatively competent countries, Ireland and Germany, submitted orders at the same time as the UK but were told to cancel them. They were given the impression that the centralized EU orders were being made straight away and there was shock when it because clear that EU sat on their hands for three months.

    The one Euro saving per shot is truly bewildering when these countries are paying their citizens hundreds of Euros per week to do nothing. They would have preferred to pay the same price as the UK and get the same 3-month headstart.

    Of course, other EU countries may have been even less organized than the EU.
     

    • Confused 1
    • Haha 1
  7. 31 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

    Never know, Thailand might 'bubble' the UK


    It is almost certain that all tourism-dependent countries, including Thailand, will adopt the policy of allowing entry without tests, insurance, or quarantine to verifiably vaccinated visitors.

    Watch to see if they make a specific deal with Israel in March or April.

    Then, this summer, watch them apply the same deal to the UK, USA, UAE and other countries who have done a terrific job of vaccinating their people, followed by the EU and most African countries in 2022.

     

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